Zach/DeMar/Vuc in 2024/2025

[dougthonus]

An interesting though, if you really want to go for a title, the path way to do so, is to trade Coby, Ayo, Pat, and AC for as many draft picks as you can get. Those are the guys who will have real value and also guys whom probably aren't good enough to lead you to a title. You then stay afloat with the mid 3 for a couple years, and try to collect more long term assets for a real tear down in 2 years.

Hard to argue with this logic, though it also sparked a thought in my head about how AK/ME potentially thought of this team had things gone well.

Had things gone well, and players remained healthy I feel like their were clear transition opportunities:

DeMar and Vuc come in for the immediate veteran help/presence then are sign and traded when their contracts are up (obviously didn't do this with Vuc) and the team kind of passes to Ball/LaVine/Caruso

And then the Ball/LaVine/Caruso trio eventually passes the mantle to Coby/Williams/whomever else is drafted

We just seemed to have these three distinct groups of players if we were to group them by ages

In hindsight, we started with 3 aces and traded into a pair of 3s.

There were lots of options to do better along the way because we started in such a good place but didn't realize it and so there were always chances to do better.

I mean we started with the ability two have two future all-stars on contracts of 20M and 16M per year that were under 25, an average starting center, a starting caliber / maybe future near star caliber guard, both of whom signed good value extensions, and what would have been multiple lotto picks.

A good GM would have us winning 50+ games with a young core and enough assets to trade for a star if we wanted one.

But yeah, they didn't piss it all away to zero overnight, there were many opportunities to do better along the way.

Of the bad luck they had, it's basically just Lonzo. Nothing else with injuries was really out of the realm of normalcy, Vuc, DeMar and Zach (prior to this year) were all playing more than expected games.

[drosestruts]

An interesting though, if you really want to go for a title, the path way to do so, is to trade Coby, Ayo, Pat, and AC for as many draft picks as you can get. Those are the guys who will have real value and also guys whom probably aren't good enough to lead you to a title. You then stay afloat with the mid 3 for a couple years, and try to collect more long term assets for a real tear down in 2 years.

Hard to argue with this logic, though it also sparked a thought in my head about how AK/ME potentially thought of this team had things gone well.

Had things gone well, and players remained healthy I feel like their were clear transition opportunities:

DeMar and Vuc come in for the immediate veteran help/presence then are sign and traded when their contracts are up (obviously didn't do this with Vuc) and the team kind of passes to Ball/LaVine/Caruso

And then the Ball/LaVine/Caruso trio eventually passes the mantle to Coby/Williams/whomever else is drafted

We just seemed to have these three distinct groups of players if we were to group them by ages

In hindsight, we started with 3 aces and traded into a pair of 3s.

There were lots of options to do better along the way because we started in such a good place but didn't realize it and so there were always chances to do better.

I mean we started with the ability two have two future all-stars on contracts of 20M and 16M per year that were under 25, an average starting center, a starting caliber / maybe future near star caliber guard, both of whom signed good value extensions, and what would have been multiple lotto picks.

A good GM would have us winning 50+ games with a young core and enough assets to trade for a star if we wanted one.

But yeah, they didn't piss it all away to zero overnight, there were many opportunities to do better along the way.

Of the bad luck they had, it's basically just Lonzo. Nothing else with injuries was really out of the realm of normalcy, Vuc, DeMar and Zach (prior to this year) were all playing more than expected games.

I would categorize both the Caruso and Williams broken wrists as both bad luck. Both occured on flagrant fouls and weren't just normal basketball plays.

the hindsight argument is an interesting one.

I think we all agree, that in hindsight a little more patience would have been the better path. Or at least a combination of the moves where we somehow still acquire Lonzo and DeRozan but not Vuc, while keeping Lauri or something.

And yet now here we are - mostly advocating for change over patience.

Now, do I think you're right, that if you want to rebuild your best opportunity for acquiring multiple picks is to trade guys like White, Ayo, Caruso, and Pat? I do, that logic makes sense to me. We often discuss wanting to trade Zach, DeMar, and/or Vuc - but those aren't the players that will net you the better draft assets.

But could we in three years be sitting here saying - "I can't believe we trade Ayo or Williams or whomever, we should have been more patient"

I suppose that's the risk. That's game. But to me there's clearly some similarities in the situations.

I believe the draft is more wide open than ever. Maybe 3 years it's clear that someone like Castle or Collier or Tyler Smith are the best player from this draft. All three should be available in our range based on mocks.

Maybe a core of White-Ayo-Williams-Smith is looking real good in a few years. Just so much unkown.

[burlydee]

This is pretty easy, so it doesn't surprise me that there are people in here arguing against the obvious - you get rid of all 3. You let Demar walk, you trade Zach for whatever you can get, you trade one of Vuc/Drummond and get a young big to back them up and you get what you can for AC knowing you blew a huge opportunity at the deadline.

That is what Sam Presti would do. That is what Danny Ainge would do. That is what people who have built lasting young franchises would do.

The Bulls CANNOT ALLOW THEIR PICK TO TRANSFER TO SAN ANTONIO NEXT SEASON. That would be suicide. Next year is the perfect chance to tank. Cooper Flagg, who I know nothing about, is considered a generational talent. That is what wins championships. Next year, you have

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

You bite the bullet, pay the piper, stop putting off the inevitable, an absolutely suck for a year to start acquiring real talent. it is the plan I hate the most. But it is the only plan that this org realistically has beyond hoping a top 10 guy demands to be traded here. This is what all of AK's wheeling and dealing than absolute neglect, has left the Bulls with. Time to pay the piper.

[drosestruts]

This is pretty easy, so it doesn't surprise me that there are people in here arguing against the obvious - you get rid of all 3. You let Demar walk, you trade Zach for whatever you can get, you trade one of Vuc/Drummond and get a young big to back them up and you get what you can for AC knowing you blew a huge opportunity at the deadline.

That is what Sam Presti would do. That is what Danny Ainge would do. That is what people who have built lasting young franchises would do.

The Bulls CANNOT ALLOW THEIR PICK TO TRANSFER TO SAN ANTONIO NEXT SEASON. That would be suicide. Next year is the perfect chance to tank. Cooper Flagg, who I know nothing about, is considered a generational talent. That is what wins championships. Next year, you have

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

You bite the bullet, pay the piper, stop putting off the inevitable, an absolutely suck for a year to start acquiring real talent. it is the plan I hate the most. But it is the only plan that this org realistically has beyond hoping a top 10 guy demands to be traded here. This is what all of AK's wheeling and dealing than absolute neglect, has left the Bulls with. Time to pay the piper.

One note - letting DeMar walk is not what Presti or Ainge would do. They would sign and trade him for a bad contract and picks

Also what huge opportunity with Caruso did the Bulls blow at the deadline? Moses Moody and a 2026 1st? Is this what we're calling a huge opportunity now?

But even if following your plan:

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

That roster is too good to tank for Cooper Flag. You're still not tanking enough. And even then the new lottery odds make in no gurantee you get Flag.

[burlydee]

This is pretty easy, so it doesn't surprise me that there are people in here arguing against the obvious - you get rid of all 3. You let Demar walk, you trade Zach for whatever you can get, you trade one of Vuc/Drummond and get a young big to back them up and you get what you can for AC knowing you blew a huge opportunity at the deadline.

That is what Sam Presti would do. That is what Danny Ainge would do. That is what people who have built lasting young franchises would do.

The Bulls CANNOT ALLOW THEIR PICK TO TRANSFER TO SAN ANTONIO NEXT SEASON. That would be suicide. Next year is the perfect chance to tank. Cooper Flagg, who I know nothing about, is considered a generational talent. That is what wins championships. Next year, you have

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

You bite the bullet, pay the piper, stop putting off the inevitable, an absolutely suck for a year to start acquiring real talent. it is the plan I hate the most. But it is the only plan that this org realistically has beyond hoping a top 10 guy demands to be traded here. This is what all of AK's wheeling and dealing than absolute neglect, has left the Bulls with. Time to pay the piper.

One note - letting DeMar walk is not what Presti or Ainge would do. They would sign and trade him for a bad contract and picks

Also what huge opportunity with Caruso did the Bulls blow at the deadline? Moses Moody and a 2026 1st? Is this what we're calling a huge opportunity now?

But even if following your plan:

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

That roster is too good to tank for Cooper Flag. You're still not tanking enough. And even then the new lottery odds make in no gurantee you get Flag.

There were reports Bulls could have got considerable back for Caruso in a trade.

If the Bulls can sign and trade Demar, great. The most important thing is they don't do what Derozan what they did with Vuc - sign him to a contract that is pretty unmoveable because of age. No 2 or 3 year contracts. I thank him for his service but its time to part ways.

That roster is not good. The Bulls are a below .500 team. Without Caruso and DeRozan they would quickly find themselves in Charlotte territory which is good enough with lottery odds to be in contention for a top pick.

The Bulls at their best won't be better than a 7th seed. Time to flip the roster.

[sco]

This is pretty easy, so it doesn't surprise me that there are people in here arguing against the obvious - you get rid of all 3. You let Demar walk, you trade Zach for whatever you can get, you trade one of Vuc/Drummond and get a young big to back them up and you get what you can for AC knowing you blew a huge opportunity at the deadline.

That is what Sam Presti would do. That is what Danny Ainge would do. That is what people who have built lasting young franchises would do.

The Bulls CANNOT ALLOW THEIR PICK TO TRANSFER TO SAN ANTONIO NEXT SEASON. That would be suicide. Next year is the perfect chance to tank. Cooper Flagg, who I know nothing about, is considered a generational talent. That is what wins championships. Next year, you have

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

You bite the bullet, pay the piper, stop putting off the inevitable, an absolutely suck for a year to start acquiring real talent. it is the plan I hate the most. But it is the only plan that this org realistically has beyond hoping a top 10 guy demands to be traded here. This is what all of AK's wheeling and dealing than absolute neglect, has left the Bulls with. Time to pay the piper.

One note - letting DeMar walk is not what Presti or Ainge would do. They would sign and trade him for a bad contract and picks

Also what huge opportunity with Caruso did the Bulls blow at the deadline? Moses Moody and a 2026 1st? Is this what we're calling a huge opportunity now?

But even if following your plan:

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

That roster is too good to tank for Cooper Flag. You're still not tanking enough. And even then the new lottery odds make in no gurantee you get Flag.

There were reports Bulls could have got considerable back for Caruso in a trade.

If the Bulls can sign and trade Demar, great. The most important thing is they don't do what Derozan what they did with Vuc - sign him to a contract that is pretty unmoveable because of age. No 2 or 3 year contracts. I thank him for his service but its time to part ways.

That roster is not good. The Bulls are a below .500 team. Without Caruso and DeRozan they would quickly find themselves in Charlotte territory which is good enough with lottery odds to be in contention for a top pick.

The Bulls at their best won't be better than a 7th seed. Time to flip the roster.

I saw rumors that the Bulls could get something good for Caruso, but I never saw any confirmation of that. I think they did try to get Kuminga, which is the sort of roster balancing move I would have supported, but GS balked.

Regarding next season, while I agree they should get value why they can this offseason for Caruso and Demar (via S&T). I think just letting those 2 and Drummond go will be enough to keep the top 10 protected pick. That said, I firmly believe that AK is focuses on mantaining the mess...especially with the unlikely return to NBA quality by Ball.

I will say that IF Ball came back and we could roll with a rotation of White, Ball, Zach, Ayo, Demar, Caruso, Pat, Vuc, Drummond, I'd watch that product.

[dougthonus]

I would categorize both the Caruso and Williams broken wrists as both bad luck. Both occured on flagrant fouls and weren't just normal basketball plays.

the hindsight argument is an interesting one.

I think we all agree, that in hindsight a little more patience would have been the better path. Or at least a combination of the moves where we somehow still acquire Lonzo and DeRozan but not Vuc, while keeping Lauri or something.

Ignore both Lonzo and DeRozan as well as Vuc.

PG: Coby/Ayo
SG: Zach
SF: Caruso/Wagner
PF: Lauri/Williams
C: WCJ/Drummond

Draft almost anyone other than Terry that was around that range, also have your 2025 1st, also quick math so may be off, have something like 50M under the tax to fill out the roster, though certainly you'd need to make room for extensions of some of those guys that are upcoming.

That team is probably better today, requires you to do nothing spectacular other than wait, and has WAY more flexibility and talent in the future. Like this isn't as much a hindsight plan as it is a "I feel asleep and woke up on draft day and picked using an average draft position spreadsheet then went back to sleep" plan.

And yet now here we are - mostly advocating for change over patience.

I don't know how much change people are advocating for other than not sticking with our 33+ year old players long term, which doesn't seem to be a particularly radical idea when looking at future performance. I brought up the idea of trading Ayo/Coby/Pat, but I'm not sure I'd do it or not, I'm just saying if you wanted to go all in on a contender with draft assets, that is what you'd have to do now to get assets back.

I don't really think anyone wants to do it, I don't think I'd do it either. I think there is some value to having a watchable product on the floor and think the boom or bust mentality of trying to go all in on the draft, while giving you marginally higher chances at a title would give you dramatically higher chances of misery, and I'm not sure the trade off is worth it. That said, the future contract situation coming up with those guys is likely ugly.

I've advocated to get yourself out of the Vuc/DeMar/Zach business while you can get assets since more or less the day after we acquired them, because the longer you wait the less you will get in value for any of them via trade (if anything) and the less they will help you on the court. Well, we're now past the point where we can get anything and just get to live with diminishing returns on the court. It will be interesting to see what happens with DeMar's deal next year, because I have a real fear it will be a monster deal that will then age really poorly and really quickly similar to Vuc's, just at a much higher price tag.

Now, do I think you're right, that if you want to rebuild your best opportunity for acquiring multiple picks is to trade guys like White, Ayo, Caruso, and Pat? I do, that logic makes sense to me. We often discuss wanting to trade Zach, DeMar, and/or Vuc - but those aren't the players that will net you the better draft assets.

But could we in three years be sitting here saying - "I can't believe we trade Ayo or Williams or whomever, we should have been more patient"

I suppose that's the risk. That's game. But to me there's clearly some similarities in the situations.

Agreed. We sure could be, and again, I'm not necessarily advocating for it. Was just throwing it out there as an idea. They've steered the ship into a really difficult spot, so I don't think there is a "have your cake and eat it too" plan. It's going to be risk it all on low odds of something much better and high odds of something much worse or try and maintain mediocrity with slow margin moves.

The thing to bare in mind is that in 2 years when Coby and Ayo are up for new deals and are unrestricted free agents, if they are performing really well, you're going to have to contend with the fact that it's exceptionally rare for FAs to be top tier at their age and unrestricted. You can love them now, but you will probably hate them on their next deals because if you keep them, you will need to outbid the market which will also be brutal due to their age and lack of options in that bucket at that age.

I believe the draft is more wide open than ever. Maybe 3 years it's clear that someone like Castle or Collier or Tyler Smith are the best player from this draft. All three should be available in our range based on mocks.

Maybe a core of White-Ayo-Williams-Smith is looking real good in a few years. Just so much unkown.

Could be. It is really hard to say what to do from here.

I'm not sure what to do from where they started, but trading draft assets and lotto picks for aging-out, fringe all-star, win now players when you are a low 30s win team was obviously in the group of "what not to do" things. Strategically, it's hard to come up with a dumber plan than being a bad team that trades long term for short term when your best case outcome on the short term side is probably 1st round exit, maybe fringe chance at 2nd round exit, but that's now just getting into old ground.

[League Circles]

I don't like a lot of what AK has done, but I think there is a LOT of presumptuous thinking about the what -ifs. For example it's far from a given that Lauri and Coby would have developed in the way they have under the alternative history. Also, Zach can't be both a future all star on a cheap contract AND (the reality) of a flawed, injury prone, overpaid "all star" that we want to dump.

Unfair to assume Caruso, Demar, and Drummond sign here under the alternate history too.

AK has a philosophy that is unique, makes sense, and he's sticking to it. The results are average at best so far but I still have hope. One of these days he'll be the only exec in the league that can talk to a guy like Wemby or whoever and honestly say that he's the most loyal exec in the league.

[Stratmaster]

This is pretty easy, so it doesn't surprise me that there are people in here arguing against the obvious - you get rid of all 3. You let Demar walk, you trade Zach for whatever you can get, you trade one of Vuc/Drummond and get a young big to back them up and you get what you can for AC knowing you blew a huge opportunity at the deadline.

That is what Sam Presti would do. That is what Danny Ainge would do. That is what people who have built lasting young franchises would do.

The Bulls CANNOT ALLOW THEIR PICK TO TRANSFER TO SAN ANTONIO NEXT SEASON. That would be suicide. Next year is the perfect chance to tank. Cooper Flagg, who I know nothing about, is considered a generational talent. That is what wins championships. Next year, you have

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

You bite the bullet, pay the piper, stop putting off the inevitable, an absolutely suck for a year to start acquiring real talent. it is the plan I hate the most. But it is the only plan that this org realistically has beyond hoping a top 10 guy demands to be traded here. This is what all of AK's wheeling and dealing than absolute neglect, has left the Bulls with. Time to pay the piper.

One note - letting DeMar walk is not what Presti or Ainge would do. They would sign and trade him for a bad contract and picks

Also what huge opportunity with Caruso did the Bulls blow at the deadline? Moses Moody and a 2026 1st? Is this what we're calling a huge opportunity now?

But even if following your plan:

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

That roster is too good to tank for Cooper Flag. You're still not tanking enough. And even then the new lottery odds make in no gurantee you get Flag.

I'm not sure that team wins 15 games

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

[drosestruts]

Ignore both Lonzo and DeRozan as well as Vuc.

PG: Coby/Ayo
SG: Zach
SF: Caruso/Wagner
PF: Lauri/Williams
C: WCJ/Drummond

Draft almost anyone other than Terry that was around that range, also have your 2025 1st, also quick math so may be off, have something like 50M under the tax to fill out the roster, though certainly you'd need to make room for extensions of some of those guys that are upcoming.

That team is probably better today, requires you to do nothing spectacular other than wait, and has WAY more flexibility and talent in the future. Like this isn't as much a hindsight plan as it is a "I feel asleep and woke up on draft day and picked using an average draft position spreadsheet then went back to sleep" plan.

There's so many "if's" here

If we keep our 2021 pick do we draft Wagner or do we draft the much worse players drafted in his range - Davion Mitchell, Ziaire Williams, James Bouknight, Josh Primo, Chris Duarte

If we draft Wagner does he develop the same here?

If we have a 2021 1st does it change our 2021 2nd round selection (Ayo)?

If Lauri stays is he the Lauri of today?

Why in this hypothetical does a franchise that clearly doesn't hit 100% on all their decisions and player development goals - do just that?

It's why these hindsight hypotheticals serve little purpose other than getting upset about what could have been.

And then there's questions will likely never be able to get quantifiable answers from like - what role has DeMar played in the development and growth of players on our team? I would speculate that DeMar has played a not insignificant role in a lot of these players development, increased knowledge of the game, and work ethic.

I think it's often rare to see young teams grow without the presence of a solid veteran who's a positive in the locker room and on the court.

I'm not sure what to do from where they started, but trading draft assets and lotto picks for aging-out, fringe all-star, win now players when you are a low 30s win team was obviously in the group of "what not to do" things. Strategically, it's hard to come up with a dumber plan than being a bad team that trades long term for short term when your best case outcome on the short term side is probably 1st round exit, maybe fringe chance at 2nd round exit, but that's now just getting into old ground.

Agreed this has been discussed at length. I just think this is less of a consensus (that our ceiling was a 1st round exit).

Either way we've had significant injuries to Lonzo, Williams, Caruso, and LaVine during the 3 years since we brought in Lonzo, Caruso, DeMar, and Vuc.

And we've had a rather short window to see this team play together.

The Heat reached the finals last year - why couldn't a hypothetically healthy Bulls team have made a similar run? A not healthy Bulls team almost knocked Miami out of the playoffs before they even got started.

[drosestruts]

This is pretty easy, so it doesn't surprise me that there are people in here arguing against the obvious - you get rid of all 3. You let Demar walk, you trade Zach for whatever you can get, you trade one of Vuc/Drummond and get a young big to back them up and you get what you can for AC knowing you blew a huge opportunity at the deadline.

That is what Sam Presti would do. That is what Danny Ainge would do. That is what people who have built lasting young franchises would do.

The Bulls CANNOT ALLOW THEIR PICK TO TRANSFER TO SAN ANTONIO NEXT SEASON. That would be suicide. Next year is the perfect chance to tank. Cooper Flagg, who I know nothing about, is considered a generational talent. That is what wins championships. Next year, you have

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

You bite the bullet, pay the piper, stop putting off the inevitable, an absolutely suck for a year to start acquiring real talent. it is the plan I hate the most. But it is the only plan that this org realistically has beyond hoping a top 10 guy demands to be traded here. This is what all of AK's wheeling and dealing than absolute neglect, has left the Bulls with. Time to pay the piper.

One note - letting DeMar walk is not what Presti or Ainge would do. They would sign and trade him for a bad contract and picks

Also what huge opportunity with Caruso did the Bulls blow at the deadline? Moses Moody and a 2026 1st? Is this what we're calling a huge opportunity now?

But even if following your plan:

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

That roster is too good to tank for Cooper Flag. You're still not tanking enough. And even then the new lottery odds make in no gurantee you get Flag.

I'm not sure that team wins 15 games

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

A bunch of g-leaguers in Memphis are going to win 25+ games. I think you're underestimating how bad you have to be to win less than 15 games.

[MrSparkle]

There are 2 big mistakes that the regime made: Vuc and Lauri. And both kind of hit the long-shot end of 'ugly' probability. Seeing Orlando get Franz was terrible. Had we won the protected top-4 and took Mobley or Barnes, nobody's crying that much about the Vuc trade. If we got Suggs, Kuminga, Zaire Williams, we'd probably be bummed regardless. If Portland coughed up a 15th pick like they were projected to, we'd have 1 more asset to make up for the loss of Lauri. But they kept sucking, more than anticipated.

The fact is, they (and I) misevaluated Vuc's impact on winning (greatly), and they messed up Lauri's development/use and probably shouldn't have risked letting a 90/50/40 7ft 22yo walk, essentially just to keep the cap clean (let's be honest - it was probably/ultimately a money decision; a "replaceable" cheap DJJ and future FRP was music to the Reinsdorf's ears, as opposed to risking it on a struggling $20M prospect on a team that just dished out a lot of money for new contracts).

The rest of AK's moves were honestly regular NBA coin-tosses that any successful GM wins and loses. There's "injury prone," and there's "medical retirement at 25", and you can't begin to tell me that the latter is a regular NBA occurrence. I'd say Zach's past 2 seasons have been more on par with the gamble of giving an athletic guard with a past ACL surgery, the max contract. All the other stuff that's happened (Lonzo, Caruso's fracture and surgery, Coby's surgery, Pat's 2 surgeries) combined for more surgeries than your average young/prime core. Inc. Zach, that's a starting lineup worth of young guys who've had about 10 cumulative surgeries in the last 2 years, not even including Javonte. I'm sorry, but this is a CRAZY volume of season-killing injuries to starters.

There's also the factor to consider that Lauri, Wendell and Gafford each had their injuries in the shortened pandemic season, which AK used for his evaluation. In the end, it's a bummer that he pulled the gun on shipping out 3 kids for an over the hill C, as the idea in itself was risky, but Lauri was available for 14 games before the deadline. So you know, maybe the lesson to learn was he made a brash judgment, maybe Donovan was quick to make his conclusions, maybe Paxson was too apathetic (he had to have had a voice in the trades, being kept as a senior advisor).

But on top of this, literally every deadline, most the rotation has been too injured to even begin trying to sell high on any decent players.

This said, we've been lucky with Demar, Vuc and Ayo's health, although in Vuc's case, I'm not sure we're that blessed. (OK, yes he's better than having Drummond play 48 MPG or running Dalen Terry at C).

Overall, I'm torn between this mediocre farm, an unfavorable situation, but also a lot of things going much worse than reasonable probabilities indicated. I'd say they're 1 big blunder away from strike 3... or several more insignificant moves (another Terry with this year's pick, a crap Zach trade or trying to run back the TRIO, etc.). I think they waited too long to trade Zach in general - it was goofy running back the same 3 guys. But without hindsight, it's dubious whether dumping Zach or Demar for pennies on the dollar would've helped. (In hindsight, yes - not fair to say, if Zach's knee happened to be fine)

Again, OKC's situation is cool. Portland's is not. Might they turn it around in 3 years? Sure. No guarantee though, especially with Scoot "Hayes" as their big #3 prize. We're at the point where tanking just makes sense, though. I would've been fine with doing it, knowing Zach and Lonzo have messed up knees, Demar's expiring, and Vuc sucks. Pretty ballsy running with it, though I genuinely enjoy Ayo/Coby/Caruso/Demar work together. Question is whether a mediocre farm is worth a feel-good story.

[Stratmaster]

One note - letting DeMar walk is not what Presti or Ainge would do. They would sign and trade him for a bad contract and picks

Also what huge opportunity with Caruso did the Bulls blow at the deadline? Moses Moody and a 2026 1st? Is this what we're calling a huge opportunity now?

But even if following your plan:

Coby / Ghost of Ball
Ayo / Bittm
Pat Williams / Terry
Craig / Phillips
Vuc

That roster is too good to tank for Cooper Flag. You're still not tanking enough. And even then the new lottery odds make in no gurantee you get Flag.

I'm not sure that team wins 15 games

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

A bunch of g-leaguers in Memphis are going to win 25+ games. I think you're underestimating how bad you have to be to win less than 15 games.

Point taken lol

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[Dan Z]

I don't like a lot of what AK has done, but I think there is a LOT of presumptuous thinking about the what -ifs. For example it's far from a given that Lauri and Coby would have developed in the way they have under the alternative history. Also, Zach can't be both a future all star on a cheap contract AND (the reality) of a flawed, injury prone, overpaid "all star" that we want to dump.

Unfair to assume Caruso, Demar, and Drummond sign here under the alternate history too.

AK has a philosophy that is unique, makes sense, and he's sticking to it. The results are average at best so far but I still have hope. One of these days he'll be the only exec in the league that can talk to a guy like Wemby or whoever and honestly say that he's the most loyal exec in the league.

Are you suggesting that AK being "loyal" will convince someone like Wemby to sign here? I highly doubt that (plus many things would have to go wrong in San Antonio for Wemby to want out and even if that happens it won't be years).

If the Bulls are a winning team, with assets or cap space, that would help, but they're currently on the road to back-to-back 40 ish win seasons .

[League Circles]

I don't like a lot of what AK has done, but I think there is a LOT of presumptuous thinking about the what -ifs. For example it's far from a given that Lauri and Coby would have developed in the way they have under the alternative history. Also, Zach can't be both a future all star on a cheap contract AND (the reality) of a flawed, injury prone, overpaid "all star" that we want to dump.

Unfair to assume Caruso, Demar, and Drummond sign here under the alternate history too.

AK has a philosophy that is unique, makes sense, and he's sticking to it. The results are average at best so far but I still have hope. One of these days he'll be the only exec in the league that can talk to a guy like Wemby or whoever and honestly say that he's the most loyal exec in the league.

Are you suggesting that AK being "loyal" will convince someone like Wemby to sign here? I highly doubt that (plus many things would have to go wrong in San Antonio for Wemby to want out and even if that happens it won't be years).

If the Bulls are a winning team, with assets or cap space, that would help, but they're currently on the road to back-to-back 40 ish win seasons .

Well it's unlikely that any winning roster can ever add a true max guy via FA because it's unlikely to have a winning roster on 60% of the cap or whatever leaving room for a true max guy, but I'm just suggesting that AK is doing something unique that I do believe will have value to prospective players (and players considering returning like Demar, Drummond and Patrick) in that he is genuinely leaning heavily towards continuity and loyalty. Now, will that be enough to outweigh any negatives when the time comes (for example, hesitance to make trades would be both a positive AND a negative even to the same player in making his decision)? I have no idea, but AK does project to be a guy that can have real credibility in making that loyalty/continuity pitch to guys at contract time.

IMO, if you're not trying to position your team to get guys like Wemby, you might as well throw in the towel on titles. Signing a guy like that as FA is just as plausible as drafting one IMO or more, as it can actually be strategized to achieve. We've just barely ever seen a team even seriously try. Having an attractive org AND ideally 70%+ of your cap space free is the most logical way to start, which I think has only ever been tried by the 2010 Heat, and we know how it worked out for them.

Wemby was just a generic example, but I disagree that many things would have to go wrong for him to want out of SA. For guys on that level, the money difference isn't a big deal for several reasons. That leaves a bunch of personal/lifestyle reasons and prospects for winning, both of which are a free for all and San Antonio hardly has some obvious advantage over any other team on any of that.

[dougthonus]

There's so many "if's" here

If we keep our 2021 pick do we draft Wagner or do we draft the much worse players drafted in his range - Davion Mitchell, Ziaire Williams, James Bouknight, Josh Primo, Chris Duarte

If we draft Wagner does he develop the same here?

If we have a 2021 1st does it change our 2021 2nd round selection (Ayo)?

If Lauri stays is he the Lauri of today?

Why in this hypothetical does a franchise that clearly doesn't hit 100% on all their decisions and player development goals - do just that?

It's why these hindsight hypotheticals serve little purpose other than getting upset about what could have been.

There are many ifs, but all of the ifs are based on what happened in objective reality, so they aren't "what if I picked yesterday's winning lotto numbers". They are the most reasonable conclusions you could make without making any particularly meaningful or insightful or brilliant moves, but basically doing nothing and using the results of reality to describe what would happen if you did nothing.

If that level of "what if" is too questionable, then I'd agree, you should never look in the past about anything, because you really can't come up with much more of a conservative view of the past than I painted here.

And then there's questions will likely never be able to get quantifiable answers from like - what role has DeMar played in the development and growth of players on our team? I would speculate that DeMar has played a not insignificant role in a lot of these players development, increased knowledge of the game, and work ethic.

I think it's often rare to see young teams grow without the presence of a solid veteran who's a positive in the locker room and on the court.

I mean with the 50M in cap room, you could have brought in a veteran, even DeMar if you wanted it to be DeMar.

Agreed this has been discussed at length. I just think this is less of a consensus (that our ceiling was a 1st round exit).

People can dream whatever they want about what if our team that was built around two old players and two highly injury prone players had perfect health and no decline, but given your complaints about my "what ifs" that seems like a considerably more aggressive way of repainting the past if you think the team that in reality, missed the playoffs twice, and got annihilated in the 1st round once just had way more upside.

Either way we've had significant injuries to Lonzo, Williams, Caruso, and LaVine during the 3 years since we brought in Lonzo, Caruso, DeMar, and Vuc.

And we've had a rather short window to see this team play together.

All things you should expect given the injury history and age of the players involved, and not mad craziness.

The Heat reached the finals last year - why couldn't a hypothetically healthy Bulls team have made a similar run? A not healthy Bulls team almost knocked Miami out of the playoffs before they even got started.

Quite simply because they aren't good enough. It's why Vegas predicted their healthy roster to be around a .500 win team for multiple years in a row.

[kodo]

The Heat reached the finals last year - why couldn't a hypothetically healthy Bulls team have made a similar run? A not healthy Bulls team almost knocked Miami out of the playoffs before they even got started.

Quite simply because they aren't good enough. It's why Vegas predicted their healthy roster to be around a .500 win team for multiple years in a row.

And the Heat reached the Finals because they were the best playoff team at what everyone unanimously agrees is the cheat code in the current league, the 3 pointer. So even if the Heat weren't the most talented EC team, they were the best at the style of play that takes advantage of the meta. The Heat were #1 in 3Ps made + 3P% in the entire playoffs (Milwaukee had a 0.3 edge in 3PM, but a much lower %) and passed extremely well (2nd in the playoffs in assists per game).

The pessimism around Chicago isn't just around the talent level...it's how we play. We don't make a lot of 3s (24th), we don't defend the 3 (29th), we don't pass well (24th in assists).

If the Bulls were still a .500 team, but we were top 3 in 3PM and top 3 in assists you'd see a lot of the national media declare us a dangerous play-in / low seed team to watch out for. Which is exactly what people think of Indiana. Granted, this also takes into account they now have Siakam, but this is just another factor that leads to the Chicago pessimism...we don't make any moves at the trade deadlines so there's no reason to think we'll finish stronger than we started.

I also think Spo is the best playoff coach working right now but that's pretty subjective. But there's probably some consensus that at least he's better than Billy.

[League Circles]

The Heat reached the finals last year - why couldn't a hypothetically healthy Bulls team have made a similar run? A not healthy Bulls team almost knocked Miami out of the playoffs before they even got started.

Quite simply because they aren't good enough. It's why Vegas predicted their healthy roster to be around a .500 win team for multiple years in a row.

And the Heat reached the Finals because they were the best playoff team at what everyone unanimously agrees is the cheat code in the current league, the 3 pointer. So even if the Heat weren't the most talented EC team, they were the best at the style of play that takes advantage of the meta. The Heat were #1 in 3Ps made + 3P% in the entire playoffs (Milwaukee had a 0.3 edge in 3PM, but a much lower %) and passed extremely well (2nd in the playoffs in assists per game).

The pessimism around Chicago isn't just around the talent level...it's how we play. We don't make a lot of 3s (24th), we don't defend the 3 (29th), we don't pass well (24th in assists).

If the Bulls were still a .500 team, but we were top 3 in 3PM and top 3 in assists you'd see a lot of the national media declare us a dangerous play-in / low seed team to watch out for. Which is exactly what people think of Indiana. Granted, this also takes into account they now have Siakam, but this is just another factor that leads to the Chicago pessimism...we don't make any moves at the trade deadlines so there's no reason to think we'll finish stronger than we started.

I also think Spo is the best playoff coach working right now but that's pretty subjective. But there's probably some consensus that at least he's better than Billy.

LMFAO the Heat were 14th in 3PM and **** 27th in 3PT% during the regular season last year. THAT is EXACTLY why such a thing could just as easily happen to the Bulls. This league is absolutely less predictable than it used to be for decades.

[MrSparkle]

The Heat reached the finals last year - why couldn't a hypothetically healthy Bulls team have made a similar run? A not healthy Bulls team almost knocked Miami out of the playoffs before they even got started.

Quite simply because they aren't good enough. It's why Vegas predicted their healthy roster to be around a .500 win team for multiple years in a row.

And the Heat reached the Finals because they were the best playoff team at what everyone unanimously agrees is the cheat code in the current league, the 3 pointer. So even if the Heat weren't the most talented EC team, they were the best at the style of play that takes advantage of the meta. The Heat were #1 in 3Ps made + 3P% in the entire playoffs (Milwaukee had a 0.3 edge in 3PM, but a much lower %) and passed extremely well (2nd in the playoffs in assists per game).

The pessimism around Chicago isn't just around the talent level...it's how we play. We don't make a lot of 3s (24th), we don't defend the 3 (29th), we don't pass well (24th in assists).

If the Bulls were still a .500 team, but we were top 3 in 3PM and top 3 in assists you'd see a lot of the national media declare us a dangerous play-in / low seed team to watch out for. Which is exactly what people think of Indiana. Granted, this also takes into account they now have Siakam, but this is just another factor that leads to the Chicago pessimism...we don't make any moves at the trade deadlines so there's no reason to think we'll finish stronger than we started.

I also think Spo is the best playoff coach working right now but that's pretty subjective. But there's probably some consensus that at least he's better than Billy.

Yeah. 2 elite defenders (Bam and Jimmy) and 2 elite 3P shooters (Duncan and Strus) provide significantly more than our 2 biggest liabilities. Put a hand in Ayo/Caruso/Vuc’s face, and that 3P shot has a 1% chance of going in, whereas those Heat guys could bury high-pressure contested 3Ps at a good rate.

We’re a 2nd round ceiling team, in a hypothetical, absolute bananas series of upsets (need MVP DeJordan, Coby getting red hot, Ayo/AC/Vuc getting hot on open shots, Drummond being his best self… and for Celtics/Bucks running into injuries).

We’re just far and away from playoff competitiveness. They claimed to change shooting profile, but we’re still bottom-7 in 3P% and attempts. If we actually make the 1st round, it’s probably a 4-1 exit at best.

[Dan Z]

I don't like a lot of what AK has done, but I think there is a LOT of presumptuous thinking about the what -ifs. For example it's far from a given that Lauri and Coby would have developed in the way they have under the alternative history. Also, Zach can't be both a future all star on a cheap contract AND (the reality) of a flawed, injury prone, overpaid "all star" that we want to dump.

Unfair to assume Caruso, Demar, and Drummond sign here under the alternate history too.

AK has a philosophy that is unique, makes sense, and he's sticking to it. The results are average at best so far but I still have hope. One of these days he'll be the only exec in the league that can talk to a guy like Wemby or whoever and honestly say that he's the most loyal exec in the league.

Are you suggesting that AK being "loyal" will convince someone like Wemby to sign here? I highly doubt that (plus many things would have to go wrong in San Antonio for Wemby to want out and even if that happens it won't be years).

If the Bulls are a winning team, with assets or cap space, that would help, but they're currently on the road to back-to-back 40 ish win seasons .

Well it's unlikely that any winning roster can ever add a true max guy via FA because it's unlikely to have a winning roster on 60% of the cap or whatever leaving room for a true max guy, but I'm just suggesting that AK is doing something unique that I do believe will have value to prospective players (and players considering returning like Demar, Drummond and Patrick) in that he is genuinely leaning heavily towards continuity and loyalty. Now, will that be enough to outweigh any negatives when the time comes (for example, hesitance to make trades would be both a positive AND a negative even to the same player in making his decision)? I have no idea, but AK does project to be a guy that can have real credibility in making that loyalty/continuity pitch to guys at contract time.

IMO, if you're not trying to position your team to get guys like Wemby, you might as well throw in the towel on titles. Signing a guy like that as FA is just as plausible as drafting one IMO or more, as it can actually be strategized to achieve. We've just barely ever seen a team even seriously try. Having an attractive org AND ideally 70%+ of your cap space free is the most logical way to start, which I think has only ever been tried by the 2010 Heat, and we know how it worked out for them.

Wemby was just a generic example, but I disagree that many things would have to go wrong for him to want out of SA. For guys on that level, the money difference isn't a big deal for several reasons. That leaves a bunch of personal/lifestyle reasons and prospects for winning, both of which are a free for all and San Antonio hardly has some obvious advantage over any other team on any of that.

I doubt "loyalty" will be enough to convince a top free agent to come here, especially if the Bulls are a continually losing team. Maybe that changes if said player wants to team up with someone who is already here, but that's a doubtful.

I agree with you that the Bulls should try to get players like Wemby. I wanted them to tank last year when it was obvious that the season was going nowhere (even though it was a long shot. I don't care that Orlando had the pick protected 1-4).

Right now Wemby is on SA until his contract is up and then he'll sign a max and be there for even more years. A lot can happen, but we won't know the results until years down the road. I'd be surprised if things went so bad that he'll want out and if he does it'll probably be through a trade.