Zach/DeMar/Vuc in 2024/2025

[dougthonus]

Was thinking about how the Bulls should do going forward?

Assumptions:
1: You will not get back any meaningful player for any of these guys
2: With DeMar, he just walks, so you free up his cap number this year
3: With Zach/Vuc you move for an expiring but nothing else, so you free up their cap number next year
4: If you choose to keep DeMar, he is now on a long term contract at 3/105 (35M per year)

Under those assumptions who are you bringing back?

[DuckIII]

On those terms, none of them, obviously. If you actually care about building a contender. But I’ve learned that to a number of Bulls fans that is a lot less important than I assumed it would be.

If you could sign DDR to a one year deal that might be intriguing.

[greenwing]

I personally don’t like the assumption that you won’t get anything meaningful for any of them. But if you have to make a change I think you have to move Zach. Coby is more effective with DeRozan than Zach is and he comes way cheaper without the injury concern that will always be there with Zach. I do think you can get value for Zach. How much value remains to be seen, though.

[GoBlue72391]

I think if you're going to move one, you might as well move them all and start fresh. Demar and Vuc are old, and Vuc especially is declining rapidly. Zach isn't old but he's no longer young either and he doesn't even want to be here anyway.

Zach: move him immediately since he doesn't want to be here

Vuc: move him immediately because he's declining

Demar: he could possibly be used to bridge the gap between this core and whatever lies ahead with a 1-year or 1+team option contract

[dougthonus]

I personally don’t like the assumption that you won’t get anything meaningful for any of them. But if you have to make a change I think you have to move Zach. Coby is more effective with DeRozan than Zach is and he comes way cheaper without the injury concern that will always be there with Zach. I do think you can get value for Zach. How much value remains to be seen, though.

You could hang on to Zach and move him later, but this was just more "how would you start the season".

I can't imagine you'd get anything meaningful for any of them in the off-season.

[dougthonus]

On those terms, none of them, obviously. If you actually care about building a contender. But I’ve learned that to a number of Bulls fans that is a lot less important than I assumed it would be.

I've been pondering this one, and I just don't think there's anything you can do that makes your odds of a contender meaningfully better. The things you could have done that would achieve this were to be proactive about cycling your older assets into long term assets 2 years ago.

Like you could move all 3, but if you get nothing back, then what? You just hoping to be somewhat bad and get a superstar in the draft with just your own draft pick and no extra assets with the lottery odds as they exist today? Could happen, but boy is that not particularly great odds, and the downside is just being an unmitigated disaster hoping for that 10% chance every year.

So I think of it more like, how do I go about not making my odds worse? And I think they are things like: Don't sign new bad deals. Look to trade value at its peak.

If you could sign DDR to a one year deal that might be intriguing.

I can't imagine DDR signs for a 1 year deal.

I could maybe see a 2 year deal, but have serious doubts unless the money is a ton.

I do think part of it would be the question of how much DDR cares about winning vs situation. He was quoted as basically saying he'd like to stay here if the money works, but the implication I take from that is that he definitely cares about the money. I can't see him staying here for less.

Maybe no one on the open market bids more for the same reasons we're concerned about bidding more, but who knows, always a wild card. Also depends whether we bid against ourselves or are willing to let DDR walk to hard ball him more in negotiations and say, we'll match your best offer or even make the best offer, but we're not going to proactively outbid the market by 50M.

[NZB2323]

The issue is they’re not good together but they don’t have trade value.

[DuckIII]

On those terms, none of them, obviously. If you actually care about building a contender. But I’ve learned that to a number of Bulls fans that is a lot less important than I assumed it would be.

I've been pondering this one, and I just don't think there's anything you can do that makes your odds of a contender meaningfully better. The things you could have done that would achieve this were to be proactive about cycling your older assets into long term assets 2 years ago.

Like you could move all 3, but if you get nothing back, then what? You just hoping to be somewhat bad and get a superstar in the draft with just your own draft pick and no extra assets with the lottery odds as they exist today? Could happen, but boy is that not particularly great odds, and the downside is just being an unmitigated disaster hoping for that 10% chance every year.

So I think of it more like, how do I go about not making my odds worse? And I think they are things like: Don't sign new bad deals. Look to trade value at its peak.

If you could sign DDR to a one year deal that might be intriguing.

I can't imagine DDR signs for a 1 year deal.

I could maybe see a 2 year deal, but have serious doubts unless the money is a ton.

I do think part of it would be the question of how much DDR cares about winning vs situation. He was quoted as basically saying he'd like to stay here if the money works, but the implication I take from that is that he definitely cares about the money. I can't see him staying here for less.

Maybe no one on the open market bids more for the same reasons we're concerned about bidding more, but who knows, always a wild card. Also depends whether we bid against ourselves or are willing to let DDR walk to hard ball him more in negotiations and say, we'll match your best offer or even make the best offer, but we're not going to proactively outbid the market by 50M.

I realize that trading them for nothing and letting DDR walk guarantees nothing at all, still makes contending a difficult task, and we’re 13 months past the time when the decision to rebuild would have made the most sense for accumulating assets.

But it’s also clear that regardless of how unlikely it is that starting over (somewhat, we have at least two identified pieces) will lead to contention, it’s at least possible due to the various options and flexibility that comes with it.

It’s not possible at all with this old mediocre core, and that’s all that needs to be known to an organization that has contending as its priority. Which ours doesn’t.

And now that it looks like some version of Lonzo Ball might be able to come back, and the Bulls are winning more than expected with Coby and Ayo blooming, it’s pretty much a certainty that everyone’s coming back except Zach.

[DuckIII]

The issue is they’re not good together but they don’t have trade value.

They did 13 months ago.

[dougthonus]

I realize that trading them for nothing and letting DDR walk guarantees nothing at all, still makes contending a difficult task, and we’re 13 months past the time when the decision to rebuild would have made the most sense for accumulating assets.

But it’s also clear that regardless of how unlikely it is that starting over (somewhat, we have at least two identified pieces) will lead to contention, it’s at least possible due to the various options and flexibility that comes with it.

It’s not possible at all with this old mediocre core, and that’s all that needs to be known to an organization that has contending as its priority. Which ours doesn’t.

And now that it looks like some version of Lonzo Ball might be able to come back, and the Bulls are winning more than expected with Coby and Ayo blooming, it’s pretty much a certainty that everyone’s coming back except Zach.

I don't think keeping all 3 is a viable option, but I'm not sure keeping 1 or 2 is worse than starting over.

Like say for example, say I keep Zach and Vuc and let DDR walk, Zach's surgery returns him to previous year's form, and then now next summer after a rehabilitation year and one year off his contract, Zach's now got multiple pick trade value again (even if they're lousy picks) and the Vuc is an expiring, but on a relatively low price tag and the trade value of being able to match salaries might have more value than not having him on the roster at all.

There are other permutations you could argue about of course, but I don't think necessarily that freeing Vuc one year early on salary does much for you, nor am I sure that moving Zach now vs waiting until later does more for you or that DeMar couldn't hang on be valuable.

I'm not saying it has to work out this way, just saying that it's definitely not a no brainer to me that trading them now for nothing boosts your odds or if it just makes your team worse with the same odds. If you could get out from all 3 contracts instantly (and Lonzo's) that might be a different story of course, but that's not the reality.

[sco]

I realize that trading them for nothing and letting DDR walk guarantees nothing at all, still makes contending a difficult task, and we’re 13 months past the time when the decision to rebuild would have made the most sense for accumulating assets.

But it’s also clear that regardless of how unlikely it is that starting over (somewhat, we have at least two identified pieces) will lead to contention, it’s at least possible due to the various options and flexibility that comes with it.

It’s not possible at all with this old mediocre core, and that’s all that needs to be known to an organization that has contending as its priority. Which ours doesn’t.

And now that it looks like some version of Lonzo Ball might be able to come back, and the Bulls are winning more than expected with Coby and Ayo blooming, it’s pretty much a certainty that everyone’s coming back except Zach.

I don't think keeping all 3 is a viable option, but I'm not sure keeping 1 or 2 is worse than starting over.

Like say for example, say I keep Zach and Vuc and let DDR walk, Zach's surgery returns him to previous year's form, and then now next summer after a rehabilitation year and one year off his contract, Zach's now got multiple pick trade value again (even if they're lousy picks) and the Vuc is an expiring, but on a relatively low price tag and the trade value of being able to match salaries might have more value than not having him on the roster at all.

There are other permutations you could argue about of course, but I don't think necessarily that freeing Vuc one year early on salary does much for you, nor am I sure that moving Zach now vs waiting until later does more for you or that DeMar couldn't hang on be valuable.

I'm not saying it has to work out this way, just saying that it's definitely not a no brainer to me that trading them now for nothing boosts your odds or if it just makes your team worse with the same odds. If you could get out from all 3 contracts instantly (and Lonzo's) that might be a different story of course, but that's not the reality.

Great thread!

I see 2 potential paths:

1) The "(delusional) Want to contend" path. You can't do that without Demar, Coby, and AC. Beyond needing to bring Demar back at any cost (I could easily see a 3/$90M deal - yuck). If we are trading AC to rid us of Zach's or Vuc's contract, we're not going to be good. So we're likely keeping Zach and Vuc (who, as much as he sucks, isn't going anywhere with AK around, who is hellbent on getting us to believe the Vuc trade wasn't a huge mistake). The core to this strategy is we hope Zach and Ball come back and rekindle the magic, and that Ayo, Pat and Phillips develop into good rotation players.

2) The "Stealth Tank" path. If we "lose" Demar, even with Zach and Ball added to the mix, we are likely a bad team. We could use AC to rid ourselves of Vuc, but probably not Zach. Zach would become our #1 option again, and there's a good chance that he immediately becomes happy. That said, 90% of our "Clutchness" is due to Demar making buckets in the 4th. The logic here is that we get a true sense of the ceilings for guys like Coby and Pat, as well as a season to assess the recovery of Ball. Maybe more importantly, the FO can pretty easily steer this team into the lottery, giving us a good shot at keeping our 2025 pick (IIRC protected top 10 pick). And look, if our young guys step-up and we are actually winning, that's a good (but unexpected) thing.

[DuckIII]

I realize that trading them for nothing and letting DDR walk guarantees nothing at all, still makes contending a difficult task, and we’re 13 months past the time when the decision to rebuild would have made the most sense for accumulating assets.

But it’s also clear that regardless of how unlikely it is that starting over (somewhat, we have at least two identified pieces) will lead to contention, it’s at least possible due to the various options and flexibility that comes with it.

It’s not possible at all with this old mediocre core, and that’s all that needs to be known to an organization that has contending as its priority. Which ours doesn’t.

And now that it looks like some version of Lonzo Ball might be able to come back, and the Bulls are winning more than expected with Coby and Ayo blooming, it’s pretty much a certainty that everyone’s coming back except Zach.

I don't think keeping all 3 is a viable option, but I'm not sure keeping 1 or 2 is worse than starting over.

Like say for example, say I keep Zach and Vuc and let DDR walk, Zach's surgery returns him to previous year's form, and then now next summer after a rehabilitation year and one year off his contract, Zach's now got multiple pick trade value again (even if they're lousy picks) and the Vuc is an expiring, but on a relatively low price tag and the trade value of being able to match salaries might have more value than not having him on the roster at all.

There are other permutations you could argue about of course, but I don't think necessarily that freeing Vuc one year early on salary does much for you, nor am I sure that moving Zach now vs waiting until later does more for you or that DeMar couldn't hang on be valuable.

I'm not saying it has to work out this way, just saying that it's definitely not a no brainer to me that trading them now for nothing boosts your odds or if it just makes your team worse with the same odds. If you could get out from all 3 contracts instantly (and Lonzo's) that might be a different story of course, but that's not the reality.

You could argue this year after year though. Sure, next year things might go juuuuust right. And if they do, you think AK is going to trade those guys? He won’t. And if he keeps them, even with things going very well, do you believe this team can win two playoff series? And by “can” I don’t mean in the outlier possibility sense. I mean expect them to, like you would a real contender.

We have two young players clearly worth keeping on incredibly friendly team-building contracts, one who could be a keeper depending on contract, and an opportunity to build with them now at a time when those salaries make it optimal to do so.

It’s not as stab-you-in-the-eye obvious as it was 13 months ago, but there are new factors which still call for moving on from The 3 all at once and before the season starts.

But we’re just going to keep repeating this discussion all summer like we did last summer and the last two trade deadlines, all while knowing the way this season is going there is no way in hell it’s going to happen.

[DuckIII]

1) The "(delusional) Want to contend" path. You can't do that without Demar, Coby, and AC.

So you mean it’s delusional to think we can contend in the short term without those guys? I agree. But I don’t think anyone here thinks otherwise.

Additionally, I don’t see any Bulls fans calling for hanging onto the vets because they think we can turn that into a contender. The argument is always based on being content with competitive basketball and unwilling to go through the (subjective) boredom of rebuilding. No one even talks about contention.

[dougthonus]

You could argue this year after year though. Sure, next year things might go juuuuust right. And if they do, you think AK is going to trade those guys? He won’t. And if he keeps them, even with things going very well, do you believe this team can win two playoff series? And by “can” I don’t mean in the outlier possibility sense. I mean expect them to, like you would a real contender.

I think you're misconstruing my point. I don't think this team will be a contender with these players. I don't think they will be a contender in the next two years regardless of what you do. There is a near 0% chance they will be a contender in that time frame.

I'm not sure trading them for nothing now boosts your odds in year 3+ or whether the odds are the same. Ie, if you wait a year on Vuc/Zach and Zach has higher trade value and Vuc can be used as salary filler, that might make your year 3+ odds higher than dumping them now for nothing.

Or it might not.

I'm under no illusion that these guys are going to win you a title.

We have two young players clearly worth keeping on incredibly friendly team-building contracts, one who could be a keeper depending on contract, and an opportunity to build with them now at a time when those salaries make it optimal to do so.

It’s not as stab-you-in-the-eye obvious as it was 13 months ago, but there are new factors which still call for moving on from The 3 all at once and before the season starts.

There's definitely a case to be made for getting rid of all 3 now and letting Lonzo fall off the books. If you got Pat at 16M per year (KC's reported offer last year) and decline Terry's 4th year option, you could be sitting at 105M in cap room in in 2025 with Coby, Ayo, and Pat on the roster. Of course in 2026, you will need to resign both Coby/Ayo (if you want to keep them) so will need to leave yourself wiggle room to do that under the tax depending how they do over the next two years.

There's definitely some value to that vs waiting a year, and now having all your cap room line up with Coby and Ayo also as FAs. In my scenario above, you'd count on making trades vs FA to fill in the team gaps, that's been more likely the case recently, but doesn't mean it will be going forward as I'm not sure it's worked out real well for many of those teams and you may see fewer teams taking that route.

You also have to decide on Caruso in this case, and whether to trade him for value in his final year or basically you should bring him back on a new deal.

[DuckIII]

We’re both miscommunicating on the first part, Doug. I understand what you are saying.

On the second point, it’s valuable to have access to as much capspace as reasonably possible in the biggest window as reasonably possible so you can maximize opportunities to take advantage of it before you have to give Coby and Ayo the next deals that we suspect and hope they will earn. The time do that is already here.

I already knew you knew, as we pretty much all know, this team has no path to contention without major changes. So quibbling over how likely another approach would be relative to the zero percent likelihood of doing it through retention doesn’t hold a lot of interest for me.

This team can’t contend. Contending is the only thing that matters to me as a fan (assuming the players are not horrible human beings). So it’s time to start over. Way past time, in fact. I see it in absolute black and white terms.

[sco]

1) The "(delusional) Want to contend" path. You can't do that without Demar, Coby, and AC.

So you mean it’s delusional to think we can contend in the short term without those guys? I agree. But I don’t think anyone here thinks otherwise.

Additionally, I don’t see any Bulls fans calling for hanging onto the vets because they think we can turn that into a contender. The argument is always based on being content with competitive basketball and unwilling to go through the (subjective) boredom of rebuilding. No one even talks about contention.

Not what I meant, but still true. I meant it's delusional that we can contend WITH them, but AK can rationalize the return of Ball coupled with the emergence of Coby, etc, to continue to sell his continuity crap, which is what I fully expect despite what Bulls fans want.

[DuckIII]

1) The "(delusional) Want to contend" path. You can't do that without Demar, Coby, and AC.

So you mean it’s delusional to think we can contend in the short term without those guys? I agree. But I don’t think anyone here thinks otherwise.

Additionally, I don’t see any Bulls fans calling for hanging onto the vets because they think we can turn that into a contender. The argument is always based on being content with competitive basketball and unwilling to go through the (subjective) boredom of rebuilding. No one even talks about contention.

Not what I meant, but still true. I meant it's delusional that we can contend WITH them, but AK can rationalize the return of Ball coupled with the emergence of Coby, etc, to continue to sell his continuity crap, which is what I fully expect despite what Bulls fans want.

It’s absolutely what is going to happen.

But I’ll rage against the futility nonetheless.

[HomoSapien]

I think we will come back with all three. I think, at best, we should only come back with DeMar.

[dougthonus]

This team can’t contend. Contending is the only thing that matters to me as a fan (assuming the players are not horrible human beings). So it’s time to start over. Way past time, in fact. I see it in absolute black and white terms.

I actually think building a 45 win team with young players and flexibility is where I start, I think a good team with young talent is the type of team that has the chance to eventually contend these days without just getting absurdly lucky.

What do you mean by start over? Get rid of everyone? Everyone over 25? There are various degrees of that. If I'm in the same boat in 2026/27 but can win more games in 24/25 and 25/26, even if I'm not going anywhere, that would be preferable to me. I still like to watch games where we win basketball even if there is no end playoff payoff.

I'm not sure getting rid of everyone optimizes 26/27. It just may make 24/25 and 25/26 worse. Though it might. To your point having cap room a year earlier to be available when Ayo/Coby are still on cheap deals could have real value if you are able to execute in that on year.

I think you sacrifice a lot in 24/25 to make that happen, but payoff is probably worth it the more I think about it.

[ChettheJet]

Here's where I'm at

Zach had the fewest games this year to show that he would be willing to greatly reduce the iso, do less pounding the ball to take his step back 3's and get with what's been going on, the 27 assists per game, move the ball to the open man. He was one to always take the challenge of his counterpart having a big game so he should try to keep up. He also got caught up in seeing DeRozan have 3-4 big games so he should take over the next couple. It's not his defense and lazy turnovers that make me ready to move him, it's his attitude of wanting to be treated like the star #1 but not having it in him.

DeRozan does all the right things, teammates look up to him, unfortunately many defer to him, he's a leader but I'm saying, Toronto traded him and won a title, he was good on a poor Spurs team, he's just not changing the fortunes of the Bulls. If you watch a lot of games and pay attention he brings the ball up the court WAY too often for a SF, especially on a small team, and he slows the pace of the offense when he does bring it up, you can see when he's just not going to look for anybody else unless he makes his move an there's 7 seconds left on the shot clock so he gives it up.

I honestly think Vucevic would welcome a ticket out of town. With the Bulls playing the smallest lineup I've ever seen for an extended period he's the only size on the floor. He looks bad on defense when they switch and he's on a PG at the arc, he can only guard so many players in the lane by the basket. When he gets a mismatch in the post against a guard, DeRozan never looks to pass it in to him, and not everybody else pauses for just that second to recognize he's there. That's why he ends up sipping out to take 3 pointers, leaving nobody over 6-6 to rebound.

By next season Coby, Ayo and I think Patrick will step it up given the chance to gel as a trio. I see a bench of Craig, Bitim, Phillips as a good start. Then I imagine Lonzo putting the jewelry away and wearing shorts and I see a future to build. I would rather get a few guys on the end of their rookie deals, some unrealized potential, expiring still young veterans and start building. Part of bringing in younger guys with something to prove is having 2 of them competing at a given position sothey can get benched if they aren't trying to fit in. Their minutes to deserve not given to them. With the 3 vets in question, you just can't see a way that the young guys the Bulls have now get the chance to do more because the 3 older guys aren't going to be willing to take steps back.