Crazy Idea-Trade Coby

[pipfan]

First of all, I really like Coby. He is a hard worker and seems like a good kid, and definitely made a jump this year. I know we won't do this, but I'd like feedback on this idea.

1. We know we are stuck in mediocrity. Our team is fine, average-but going nowhere fast. I could easily see us winning 40 games in the 2027-28 season, and each year between.
2. The FO/Ownership is clearly not ready to blow it up, and I understand. The UC is still packed nightly and I'm sure the Bulls are very profitable.
Part of this plan is to start next year with a "Lavine/Ball is back" to sell tickets and win games, but set us up for a deadline blow up
3. Coby has high value, due to his jumper, scoring touch, improved overall game and great contract. BUT, his value will be highest this June. He'll get a fat new deal in 2 years, then not be as attractive.
4. I think Orl and SA make a ton of sense. For purposes of this post, let's stick with Orl. I posted a CWhite for the 2024 #20 pick and the Den '25 pick from Orl and even Magic fans said it was too light for Chi. So, here is the deal

Coby for Howard/#20/Den pick (and maybe we have to throw DTerry or the Port pick back at them, and they splash us a few 2nd round picks).

For Orl, it's a home run. White fits perfectly in their lineup and they are already a playoff team.
White/Anthony
Suggs/Black
Franz/Ingles
Paolo/Isaac
Carter/Wagner
Plus all their own picks moving forward-that's a dangerous team

For us, it's a two step blow up. We draft the best, highest upside bigs/wings at #11 and #20. This move frees up some $ so we can resign DDR and PWill (not sure on Drummond-that's why sending Terry back to Orl might help).

The FO can still sell casual fans that the team is decent, and by the deadline we'll inevitably be around .500. Part of this plan is to feature Lavine and cut DDR's minutes some. Let's push up Lavine's value so we can deal him (BRK will make a good offer once Mitchell's no longer an option in FA and other teams will be willing to send us something as well since Lavine's deal will be past the halfway point). We start the year with this lineup

Ayo(better fit with Lavine)/Ball/Carter
Lavine/Caruso/Terry (or someone else, if we send Terry to Orl in the deal to free up $)
DDR/Caruso/Phillips
PWill/Howard/#19
Vuc/Drummond?/#11

That's a solid team, but clearly not a 2nd round playoff club. But we can play through Jan and sell tickets. Then, we dump Lavine, DDR (2 years, $54-57 million deal, and maybe a team option for a 3rd year with a small buyout), Caruso and Drummond. Hell, maybe Ball shows something and we can get an asset back.

We end the season, on the full tank, with Ayo, PWill, Phillips, Terry(?), Howard, #19, #11-plus what we get from our vets. Maybe we keep Vuc, to eat minutes. We then pray for lotto luck next May and go into the 2025-26 season with a ton of young talent, some future picks (I even like the upside of the Den '25 pick-since it's only protected 1-5 and the West is SO deep. A long playoff run this year and Jokic gets hurt then year and they slip into the play in easily).

So, please vote below-is this a realistic blow up/restart plan that keeps revenue going for now, and gives a shot at a better future?

[MrSparkle]

I don’t think his realistic return is worth giving up his potential.

[League Circles]

Atrocious idea. It's basically dumping Coby for nothing for some reason, predicting that it won't make us suck but will somehow elevate the value of two guys who aren't even healthy, who would then be magically dumped and then pray for long shot lottery odds to make it all worthwhile.

No reason to trade Coby at all unless it's part of a deal for a superior player or prospect. Then yes we should look at it.

[DropStep]

I know Jett Howard just got recalled, but I have no idea of his value after his time in the G League. So, I don't have much concept of the value we'd be getting back in this particular deal. But in general, I think we may want to trade our man Coby. We like him, we need him, and we'll be worse without him. It hurts to think of sending him out, for the same reason he's valuable to other teams - he's young, he's made a leap, he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, and he has a significant amount of time left on his contract at a bargain salary.

But it's very unlikely we're here in 10 years saying, wow, Coby played his whole career here, and he was awesome, what a great Bull. The only similar level player I can think of who stayed here this millennium is Capt. Kirk, who left really late in his career. Other than that, really, nobody stays in the same place for their whole career. He's going to reach free agency at least twice, and will leave and/or get traded at some point. So, if he's going to leave, almost certainly before we're ready to win here (if we ever do win again), and we start from there and work backwards, what is the best time for that departure to happen? The time to trade him for max value is before he gets that sweet, sweet extension, and while there is still some real time on that rookie contract. We have a knack for trading guys a year late rather than a year early, selling low, riding the value of assets into the ground, etc. I think in this case we have an opportunity to do better. Then, add in the fact that there really is no clear path to contention with this current crew. If we extend him, how do we build our roster into something more legit? We have few ascending prime assets, no cap space, and also few dice rolls in the draft. Trading him at least opens up a new future.

I'm in, if we can get the haul I think we can. But the pain and suffering means AKME is unlikely to do it.

[League Circles]

We should definitely be looking to take advantage of his contract by clearing 2025 summer cap space instead of trading him so another team can take advantage of that. I'm not trading Coby for basically anything short of a superstar under 30 years old.

[DropStep]

We should definitely be looking to take advantage of his contract by clearing 2025 summer cap space instead of trading him so another team can take advantage of that. I'm not trading Coby for basically anything short of a superstar under 30 years old.

That contract is disappearing fast. In one short year, it will be treated as an expiring and it will be time for extension talks. If any team is going to look at him as a current asset rather than somebody who immediately needs 150 million, somebody that's cheap for two playoffs instead of just a rental/pending free agent, a trade needs to happen between this summer and the deadline next season. As for us, by the time we clear cap space and get other players in here, it would be extension time and we'll be talking about how we're not allowed to pay the luxury tax again, I'm afraid.

[League Circles]

We should definitely be looking to take advantage of his contract by clearing 2025 summer cap space instead of trading him so another team can take advantage of that. I'm not trading Coby for basically anything short of a superstar under 30 years old.

That contract is disappearing fast. In one short year, it will be treated as an expiring and it will be time for extension talks. If any team is going to look at him as a current asset rather than somebody who immediately needs 150 million, somebody that's cheap for two playoffs instead of just a rental/pending free agent, a trade needs to happen between this summer and the deadline next season. As for us, by the time we clear cap space and get other players in here, it would be extension time and we'll be talking about how we're not allowed to pay the luxury tax again, I'm afraid.

That's why I said we need to clear space for summer 2025, which shouldn't be that hard. Lonzo and Caruso will expire and we NEED to move Zach and/or Vuc and/or Carter and decline Terry's 4th year option. But even if we can't, I don't see the need to trade probably our best player unless it's for a better player. If we don't trade him and need to extend him in a couple years, that's still a good outcome.

[GoBlue72391]

I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

[Stratmaster]

We should definitely be looking to take advantage of his contract by clearing 2025 summer cap space instead of trading him so another team can take advantage of that. I'm not trading Coby for basically anything short of a superstar under 30 years old.

Then you won't be trading Coby because there is no way he brings back an all-star, much less a superstar. Unless you want to add Caruso to the deal, or you find a team that wants Coby and Zach (also almost 0% chance of happening).

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[DropStep]

We should definitely be looking to take advantage of his contract by clearing 2025 summer cap space instead of trading him so another team can take advantage of that. I'm not trading Coby for basically anything short of a superstar under 30 years old.

That contract is disappearing fast. In one short year, it will be treated as an expiring and it will be time for extension talks. If any team is going to look at him as a current asset rather than somebody who immediately needs 150 million, somebody that's cheap for two playoffs instead of just a rental/pending free agent, a trade needs to happen between this summer and the deadline next season. As for us, by the time we clear cap space and get other players in here, it would be extension time and we'll be talking about how we're not allowed to pay the luxury tax again, I'm afraid.

That's why I said we need to clear space for summer 2025, which shouldn't be that hard. Lonzo and Caruso will expire and we NEED to move Zach and/or Vuc and/or Carter and decline Terry's 4th year option. But even if we can't, I don't see the need to trade probably our best player unless it's for a better player. If we don't trade him and need to extend him in a couple years, that's still a good outcome.

It would be signed in a little over one year, give or take, most likely, if we're to keep him out of free agency, though I'm not sure if it would void the last year of his contract.

[Stratmaster]

I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

How dare you! Seriously, Coby's hot streak was not unlike others he has had in his career. He's a great option to have. When he is hot, he is instant offense. But if you are relying on that night in and night out to give you a chance to win, you are not in a good position as a team.

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[League Circles]

We should definitely be looking to take advantage of his contract by clearing 2025 summer cap space instead of trading him so another team can take advantage of that. I'm not trading Coby for basically anything short of a superstar under 30 years old.

Then you won't be trading Coby because there is no way he brings back an all-star, much less a superstar. Unless you want to add Caruso to the deal, or you find a team that wants Coby and Zach (also almost 0% chance of happening).

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Well, I think Coby plus matching salary could trivially bring back an older all star (like a Demar type), but we wouldn't want it. I do believe Coby has the trade value of a high lottery pick.

[League Circles]

That contract is disappearing fast. In one short year, it will be treated as an expiring and it will be time for extension talks. If any team is going to look at him as a current asset rather than somebody who immediately needs 150 million, somebody that's cheap for two playoffs instead of just a rental/pending free agent, a trade needs to happen between this summer and the deadline next season. As for us, by the time we clear cap space and get other players in here, it would be extension time and we'll be talking about how we're not allowed to pay the luxury tax again, I'm afraid.

That's why I said we need to clear space for summer 2025, which shouldn't be that hard. Lonzo and Caruso will expire and we NEED to move Zach and/or Vuc and/or Carter and decline Terry's 4th year option. But even if we can't, I don't see the need to trade probably our best player unless it's for a better player. If we don't trade him and need to extend him in a couple years, that's still a good outcome.

It would be signed in a little over one year, give or take, most likely, if we're to keep him out of free agency, though I'm not sure if it would void the last year of his contract.

I don't believe it would void the last year of his deal (and we shouldn't/wouldn't do it if it did). But no huge need to keep him from free agency. We can always outbid with an extra year and higher annual raises.

[Mike lorenzo]

Looking from the outside...I think the idea of ​​sending him to the Spurs would be better, if you can, for example, move up in the Draft...let's say they keep the RAPTORS' 7...then 7+ FRP 25 from the Bulls back for White+Terry+ 11+Blazers FRP... In 7 there would be one from Cody/Holland/Castle... Or how about changing it to Black?

[League Circles]

I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

I'd be interested in any evidence that he's wildly inconsistent (as as standard deviation of shooting %s from night to night compared to peers or something). I also think he's firmly an average to above average defender now. He's a really good, young, engaged player with no glaring holes in his game. He's our best roster piece by a significant margin.

[MrSparkle]

Trading a 23yo MIP-candidate on $11m salary just makes no sense, unless we had a prime Kawhi and were bringing prime George, Harden, Durant or somebody of that nature to contend (and of course such a trade would be Coby + 4 FRPs).

We're so far from contending, that a costly move to bring veteran all-star talent would be wasteful, and a gamble of trading Coby for another young prospect would be nonsensical.

[Stratmaster]

I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

I'd be interested in any evidence that he's wildly inconsistent (as as standard deviation of shooting %s from night to night compared to peers or something). I also think he's firmly an average to above average defender now. He's a really good, young, engaged player with no glaring holes in his game. He's our best roster piece by a significant margin.

In his last 8 games Coby is shooting 35% from the field and 28% from 3 (over 120 fg attempts). His defense has been pretty atrocious.

Ayo has been outplaying him for a while; but I am not trying to make it a competition. It's great that they both appear to be quality players.

Coby is a great piece to have when you need streak scoring. No way he should be taking 21 shots in a game like the one he was having last night.

He will have more hot games, and that's when he needs to be the focus.

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[League Circles]

I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

I'd be interested in any evidence that he's wildly inconsistent (as as standard deviation of shooting %s from night to night compared to peers or something). I also think he's firmly an average to above average defender now. He's a really good, young, engaged player with no glaring holes in his game. He's our best roster piece by a significant margin.

In his last 8 games Coby is shooting 35% from the field and 28% from 3 (over 120 fg attempts). His defense has been pretty atrocious.

Ayo has been outplaying him for a while; but I am not trying to make it a competition. It's great that they both appear to be quality players.

Coby is a great piece to have when you need streak scoring. No way he should be taking 21 shots in a game like the one he was having last night.

He will have more hot games, and that's when he needs to be the focus.

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Oh, you believe in the hot hand fallacy. I thought everyone knew that was fiction by now.

How does this this alleged 8 game stretch compare to peers? Has, IDK, a guy like, say, Zach Lavine ever shot those numbers over an 8 game stretch. If he has, is he streaky too then? And only to be given lots of shots when it's clear he's on a hot night (no such thing)?

[Stratmaster]

I'd be interested in any evidence that he's wildly inconsistent (as as standard deviation of shooting %s from night to night compared to peers or something). I also think he's firmly an average to above average defender now. He's a really good, young, engaged player with no glaring holes in his game. He's our best roster piece by a significant margin.

In his last 8 games Coby is shooting 35% from the field and 28% from 3 (over 120 fg attempts). His defense has been pretty atrocious.

Ayo has been outplaying him for a while; but I am not trying to make it a competition. It's great that they both appear to be quality players.

Coby is a great piece to have when you need streak scoring. No way he should be taking 21 shots in a game like the one he was having last night.

He will have more hot games, and that's when he needs to be the focus.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

Oh, you believe in the hot hand fallacy. I thought everyone knew that was fiction by now.

How does this this alleged 8 game stretch compare to peers? Has, IDK, a guy like, say, Zach Lavine ever shot those numbers over an 8 game stretch. If he has, is he streaky too then? And only to be given lots of shots when it's clear he's on a hot night (no such thing)?

If you have ever played basketball, you know it's not a fallacy. If you don't believe Coby has hot and cold streaks, you haven't been watching him his entire career. But your condescension is noted.

Zach Lavine has nothing to do with this. But when reasonably healthy, he has consistently scored 23 to 27 ppg with .600+ efficiency. If you're looking to build a case that Coby isn't inconsistent, you picked a really bad player to compare him to. If you believe Coby is having his best season (and he is) his .572 ts%, 44% fg% and 38% 3 point percentage don't really comp very well against a 5 season sample from Zach. 5 seasons. That is consistency. Not a 2 month stretch. You might want to take a look at Coby's game logs this season.

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[League Circles]

In his last 8 games Coby is shooting 35% from the field and 28% from 3 (over 120 fg attempts). His defense has been pretty atrocious.

Ayo has been outplaying him for a while; but I am not trying to make it a competition. It's great that they both appear to be quality players.

Coby is a great piece to have when you need streak scoring. No way he should be taking 21 shots in a game like the one he was having last night.

He will have more hot games, and that's when he needs to be the focus.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

Oh, you believe in the hot hand fallacy. I thought everyone knew that was fiction by now.

How does this this alleged 8 game stretch compare to peers? Has, IDK, a guy like, say, Zach Lavine ever shot those numbers over an 8 game stretch. If he has, is he streaky too then? And only to be given lots of shots when it's clear he's on a hot night (no such thing)?

If you have ever played basketball, you know it's not a fallacy. If you don't believe Coby has hot and cold streaks, you haven't been watching him his entire career. But your condescension is noted.

Zach Lavine has nothing to do with this. But when reasonably healthy, he has consistently scored 23 to 27 ppg with .600+ efficiency. If you're looking to build a case that Coby isn't inconsistent, you picked a really bad player to compare him to. If you believe Coby is having his best season (and he is) his .572 ts%, 44% fg% and 38% 3 point percentage don't really comp very well against a 5 season sample from Zach. 5 seasons. That is consistency. Not a 2 month stretch. You might want to take a look at Coby's game logs this season.

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Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.