Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[MalagaBulls]

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[molepharmer]

This guy seems to track the Bears UDFA candidates pretty closely.

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[panthermark]

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The fact that we are even in the discussion says a TON!
When the 2022 season started, our core WR's were:

Mooney
ESB
Pringle
Petis
VJJ

That had to be one of the worst WR cores in the league. Mooney was never a #1. He could be a solid #2 at best. The rest of those guys are 4's and 5's.

[JockItch43]

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The fact that we are even in the discussion says a TON!
When the 2022 season started, our core WR's were:

Mooney
ESB
Pringle
Petis
VJJ

That had to be one of the worst WR cores in the league. Mooney was never a #1. He could be a solid #2 at best. The rest of those guys are 4's and 5's.

Calling it now... 2024 NFL Executive of the Year award = luck.

[DropStep]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

I think most people would agree - he definitely got lucky on Caleb. As for the rest of his "suck outs," as they say in poker - seems to me he has either been really lucky, or he's better at evaluations than pretty much everyone else. Maybe it's repeatable and he's the Miami Heat of NFL talent acquisition? It's too soon to say, but if he WAS half a savant at talent evaluation, the early signs would look something like this.

[NZB2323]

What are the “win now” moves he made during the tank?

Moves like trading future picks for Claypool and Sweat.

I think so many people are forgetting this draft was labeled as top heavy and was considered a massive dip in talent after round 2. Many GMs across the league said this even media said the same thing. All you heard was how hard it was to get a list of the top 300 prospects because there weren’t many good ones this year.

If Im a GM knowing that I have a 16% chance of finding a player who will be in the league after 2 seasons in the 3 round, 8% in the 4th and less than 5% in the 5th and later, yes I’m going to move my picks for established young players in the NFL.

That’s not undervaluing your picks that’s recognizing the current draft talent pool and capitalizing on the perceived value of your 4th and 5th round pick.

So why did we trade into the 5th with next year's 4th? Why not trade out with our 4th instead of selecting a punter?

At any rate, I'm not hating on Poles, I'm just also not convinced he's great, but it doesn't matter, he's had amazing luck so far and the Bears are extremely well positioned. I do give Poles some credit for that, I just have concerns from other things I've seen. If you don't fair enough.

All GM success relies on luck. The Nuggets passed on Jokic in the first round. The Patriots passed on Brady in the first 5 rounds. Krause didn’t want to sign Rodman.

[El Ridda]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

I think most people would agree - he definitely got lucky on Caleb. As for the rest of his "suck outs," as they say in poker - seems to me he has either been really lucky, or he's better at evaluations than pretty much everyone else. Maybe it's repeatable and he's the Miami Heat of NFL talent acquisition? It's too soon to say, but if he WAS half a savant at talent evaluation, the early signs would look something like this.

Is the hypothesis that Poles got lucky with Caleb because the Panthers were so bad last year? I’d argue he made a lot of that ‘luck’ happen, as 1) he was able to close the deal on the trade which is never an easy thing to do, 2) he chose to do the trade with Car correctly projecting out their lack of success, 3) he demanded they include a top player in the deal in addition to picks weakening the panthers and attributing to their collapse.

[TheStig]

I hope Poles is able to pull off another sweat type move during the year. This team will be incredible if they could have another high end rusher and we have 2 seconds.

[dougthonus]

All GM success relies on luck. The Nuggets passed on Jokic in the first round. The Patriots passed on Brady in the first 5 rounds. Krause didn’t want to sign Rodman.

Sure. I agree completely.

I'm concerned with the parts of his job that aren't based on luck. As an example, on three occasions he's given up significant draft capital to acquire a player on an expiring deal that will then soon be paid at market value. That doesn't bring excess value to your franchise, it subtracts it. You are now paying the same money and out the high value draft pick.

Either way, I didn't say Poles was terrible. I think he's probably a mid range guy right now, and I hope with time in the seat he improves. The unfathomable amount of luck that he's had in his favor should give him plenty of wiggle room.

[Dresden]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

Just because a trade or a draft pick doesn't work out doesn't mean it was a mistake. You aren't going to be able to foretell what's going to happen with each move you make.

As for luck, even if CAR had not ended up with the worst record in the league last year, that trade was still a huge win for CHI. Poles knew this would be a much better year for QB's than last year, and for waiting a year, he added DJ Moore, Tyrique Stevenson, Darnell Wright, and a '25 2nd round pick plus the CAR pick.

[fleet]

I am interested in the DT from the Illini. Hopefully he can have a Sanborn UDFA type impact. Maybe not a starter but a solid rotation guy.

Anyone know what gap he plays?

3 tech guy I believe I read. But I thought that Ilini DT that went in the SR (Newton) was also a 3 tech? The corner they signed (Steward) got over a $12k signing bonus, which I understand is pretty high. Both of those players appear to have a nice runway.

Edit: Maybe this is where I saw the 3 tech mentioned on Randolph.

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[Dresden]

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

My concern is generally his view of asset value.

Taking a punter in the 4th
Trading a 4th to get in this draft with a 5th
Trading picks for guys on expiring deals that you need to resign at market value
Trying to make win now moves while you are also tanking
Hated that he passed on Carter last year (though Wright was also good at a position of need which minimizes the sting)

I don't think Poles is a train wreck or anything, he's also made plenty of aggressive good moves that have worked out, but I really question if he really fully understands the mathematics behind building a great team. If you don't, then your run as a great team will require a lot of luck and also not be long lived.

Let's be honest, there is not just one way of building a team. Several people on here act as if there is just one way to do things, i.e., "understanding the mathematics", and anyone who doesn't follow that process must be wrong. I find if very hard to believe that someone gets to be a GM without having a very sound understanding of analytics, or at least have people around him that do and that constantly give him that input.

It would be a like a lawyer of one of the top law firms in the nation not being conversant with the latest SC decisions, or not having someone on his staff that does. It just strains credulity to think if there is some magic formula for building a team that Poles somehow would not be aware of it.

I would bet my last dollar that every GM in the league understands all the various theories on team building that are out there, and which have the most credibility or data behind them.

I also think GM's know that there are exceptions to every rule, and that if you're too dogmatic or rigid in your approach, you're likely not going to succeed either.

So on the times when Poles has done things like trade draft picks, or made trades, that go against these supposed "mathematics", he's well aware of what he's doing, and has decided that it's a good move to make. And of course it's not just Poles making these calls, it's the whole staff- coaches, scouts, assistants, etc.

[Dresden]

All GM success relies on luck. The Nuggets passed on Jokic in the first round. The Patriots passed on Brady in the first 5 rounds. Krause didn’t want to sign Rodman.

Sure. I agree completely.

I'm concerned with the parts of his job that aren't based on luck. As an example, on three occasions he's given up significant draft capital to acquire a player on an expiring deal that will then soon be paid at market value. That doesn't bring excess value to your franchise, it subtracts it. You are now paying the same money and out the high value draft pick.

Either way, I didn't say Poles was terrible. I think he's probably a mid range guy right now, and I hope with time in the seat he improves. The unfathomable amount of luck that he's had in his favor should give him plenty of wiggle room.

Sure it brings value to your franchise. We now have a very good Edge pass rusher, where we didn't before. The FA market is not like a convenient store where you can walk in and just say "I'll take one starting Edge please". There is no guarantee you can get a player like Sweat on the open market- he may chose to sign elsewhere, and there's not an unlimited supply of them.

Not to mention, we got her services for the better part of a season. That adds value too. We were trying to win games. It may have hurt our draft position a slot of two, but we weren't trying to tank last season.

[Michael Jackson]

I am interested in the DT from the Illini. Hopefully he can have a Sanborn UDFA type impact. Maybe not a starter but a solid rotation guy.

Anyone know what gap he plays?

3 tech guy I believe I read. But I thought that Ilini DT that went in the SR (Newton) was also a 3 tech? The corner they signed (Steward) got over a $12k signing bonus, which I understand is pretty high. Both of those players appear to have a nice runway.

Edit: Maybe this is where I saw the 3 tech mentioned on Randolph.

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Looks good for a UDFA at a position of need. Hopefully he shows out. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

[JockItch43]

All GM success relies on luck. The Nuggets passed on Jokic in the first round. The Patriots passed on Brady in the first 5 rounds. Krause didn’t want to sign Rodman.

Sure. I agree completely.

I'm concerned with the parts of his job that aren't based on luck. As an example, on three occasions he's given up significant draft capital to acquire a player on an expiring deal that will then soon be paid at market value. That doesn't bring excess value to your franchise, it subtracts it. You are now paying the same money and out the high value draft pick.

Either way, I didn't say Poles was terrible. I think he's probably a mid range guy right now, and I hope with time in the seat he improves. The unfathomable amount of luck that he's had in his favor should give him plenty of wiggle room.

It's not easy to acquire top end free agent talent when you are rebuilding and your team basically sucks... unless you significantly overpay. As Bulls fans this should be relatable. These types of trades are meant to kickstart the rebuild, as you'll always need some type of balance between veteran leaders and young players as your best players, and it gave them a leg up on resigning a guy like Sweat that likely wouldn't have signed here if they just pursued him on the open market. Now if they didn't extend him, that would have been a horrible swing and miss.

Now we are in a position where free agents are going to be much more receptive to signing here. All a part of the process, we are on to that next phase.

[fleet]

The part that we are missing in this conversation, is that there was no imperative to have 28 year old Montez Sweat on this team. Or Claypool for that matter. We talk about it when rationalizing like must have stuff. Considering the status of the team. Still trying to figure that out. Unless you were overly concerned about keeping Matt Eberflus around. My suspicion is that was what Ryan Poles had in mind. Eberflus. In the alternative universe, having drafted 2 more young guys in the second round which Poles seems to be good at, and having a bunch more cap space right now isn’t bad either.

[TheJordanRule]

The part that we are missing in this conversation, is that there was no imperative to have 28 year old Montez Sweat on this team. Or Claypool for that matter. We talk about it when rationalizing like must have stuff. Considering the status of the team. Still trying to figure that out. Unless you were overly concerned about keeping Matt Eberflus around. My suspicion is that was what Ryan Poles had in mind. Eberflus. In the alternative universe, having drafted 2 more young guys in the second round which Poles seems to be good at, and having a bunch more cap space right now isn’t bad either

I agree with Dres tbh. Usually when someone seems a lot luckier than others, there's typically at least some substance under the surface-- or a lot, Fleet. Sweat was the right call given how dismal the defense looked for the first half of the year, brother. Things are more interconnected than we often realize. I don't think our rookie cornerback 'Reke would have shined without that significantly stronger pass rush. Our team, for the first time a long time, managed to form a defensive identity on those two big changes alone.

[fleet]

The part that we are missing in this conversation, is that there was no imperative to have 28 year old Montez Sweat on this team. Or Claypool for that matter. We talk about it when rationalizing like must have stuff. Considering the status of the team. Still trying to figure that out. Unless you were overly concerned about keeping Matt Eberflus around. My suspicion is that was what Ryan Poles had in mind. Eberflus. In the alternative universe, having drafted 2 more young guys in the second round which Poles seems to be good at, and having a bunch more cap space right now isn’t bad either

I agree with Dres tbh. Usually when someone seems a lot luckier than others, there's typically at least some substance under the surface-- or a lot, Fleet. Sweat was the right call given how dismal the defense looked for the first half of the year, brother. Things are more interconnected than we often realize. I don't think our rookie cornerback 'Reke would have shined without that significantly stronger pass rush. Our team, for the first time a long time, managed to form a defensive identity on those two big changes alone.

If you told me you were thinking about trading next year’s #2 for some 28 year old player, then I get the logic more? The Bears are playing for something in ‘24-25, and have a squad in place. Although still a little early. This team would be better off long term especially with 2 more second round picks on the team, and extra cap space right now. Poles should have made his picks. Instead, there was some impatience of a young GM that showed up.

[Dresden]

From Bleacher Report:

While fans probably won't get excited about a punter pick, adding Tory Taylor in Round 4 was a brilliant move. Taylor was one of the most valuable players for Iowa this past season, and he can be a field-flipping difference-maker for Chicago at the next level.

[Dresden]

From PFF (gave CHI an A grade overall):

Taylor — The Bears round out their draft with a key producer on special teams by grabbing a quality punter. Taylor earned a great 81.4 PFF punting grade after producing 35 punts inside the 20-yard and punting up to 67 yards.