Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[ThisGuyFawkes]

If no WR at 9, I don’t see Bears drafting another WR in round 3/4. 75 or 122. When I see talk of getting X Worthy for his undersized speed, I see Byron Scott who ran a 4.3. After the top 10 or so WRs, it’s a roll of the dice if any of them are better than Velus or Scott.


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I don't know about that. I would say Scott maybe. Velus, I don't know. And I think they have to draft a WR somewhere, just to provide some depth. Good WR's are found in later rounds pretty frequently- the position has one of the weakest correlations between success and draft position. And it is a deep WR draft. Worthy does seem like a risk, as small as he is. I doubt they go that way.

Agree Velus doesn’t look like it. Very hard to tell how much everyone will look with a QB that throws on time and accurately to guys like Scott and Velus.

Stat I heard: 40% of the deep balls (20+yds or more) from Fields to Mooney were deemed inaccurate. Change that to Byron Scott and Caleb, and I could see a fit there( may Have to squint). I saw Scott get by the D several times last year and either not catch it, or it just didn’t connect.


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I keep seeing Byron Scott, but we're talking about Tyler Scott, right?

[Betta Bulleavit]

I know that we’ve moved on past the Fields discussion.

However, a buddy of mines shared this video with me that was interesting. Now, he made a very strong throw here. But if he look closely at the beginning, he has this weird secondary motion before he throws and I wonder if THAT might have something to do with his throw timing. Check it out.

Read on Twitter

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[fleet]

He’s working on eliminating his dip n step throwing motion? He’s 6’3, but dips down to 6’0 with his dip and long stepping throws. The other quarterbacks stand tall compact in the pocket and rip without all that need to step in. But he was seen working on it last training camp too. Under fire, these guys mostly throw the way they have all their lives except a few tweaks.

[dougthonus]

I know that we’ve moved on past the Fields discussion.

However, a buddy of mines shared this video with me that was interesting. Now, he made a very strong throw here. But if he look closely at the beginning, he has this weird secondary motion before he throws and I wonder if THAT might have something to do with his throw timing. Check it out.

Read on Twitter

/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1778786325161746829&currentTweetUser=SirSimeonKelley

This comment isn't towards you, but I don't know what the purpose of this is, we have a video of him throwing an accurate pass that's maybe 10 yards where no one is moving and there is no pressure? I mean I'd guess a HS QB could do that.

[molepharmer]

Poles has a hard time with drafting receivers. If there’s a receiver that can actually catch and track the ball in the air, it would be a step up. But if we want to be sure, we’re gonna have to Poles-proof the pick. A consensus receiver in the FR is the best way to do it.

I agree unless we are talking about a slot guy like McConkey or Roman Wilson.

That’s kind of what I am saying. The gulf between 9 and 75 is a massive talent drop off, at just about every position of need. Ladd is like 5th or 6th WR and will go in round 2 early so that part of the draft would require us to trade back and get a 2nd.

Where I’m at:
Stay at 9 if MHJ, Nabors, Rome or Alt are available.

If those 4 are gone, trade back to:
Raiders 13,44
Saints 14,45
Colts? 15, 46

At (13-15) take Bowers, Verse, Murphy, Turner.

And a boatload of options at 44-46.

75 - I like Sedrick Van Pran, c. Haynes, or Safeties Kinchens/Bullock.

I think most would agree with that plan but the issue is figuring out who at #9 would those three teams value enough to give up that kind of draft capital. There's multiple good CBs and LTs where they could just wait until their pick. You mentioned the multiple d-line options and it's too early to move up for the 4th WR or o-lineman. Chances of JJ being there at #9 are extremely slim. Those you like at #13-15 aren't worth moving up for either, unless some team has Bowers/Turner as a 'must have' and are fearful a team in front of them wants him also. I haven't looked at the pick value chart but would assume, Bears would have to add so that #9 + ?? = #14 + #45

[Betta Bulleavit]

I know that we’ve moved on past the Fields discussion.

However, a buddy of mines shared this video with me that was interesting. Now, he made a very strong throw here. But if he look closely at the beginning, he has this weird secondary motion before he throws and I wonder if THAT might have something to do with his throw timing. Check it out.

Read on Twitter

/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1778786325161746829&currentTweetUser=SirSimeonKelley

This comment isn't towards you, but I don't know what the purpose of this is, we have a video of him throwing an accurate pass that's maybe 10 yards where no one is moving and there is no pressure? I mean I'd guess a HS QB could do that.

I agree. The tweet itself is nothing more than a hype piece on a generally unspectacular throw. But my guy pointed out that “odd” secondary motion just before the throw that I had never really picked up on. It just seems like a very unnecessary move before the throw, which takes time even if it’s only a millisecond. Not sure why he does it though. Maybe it’s like Fleet said, it’s a programmed habit may be hard for him to break.

[1985Bear]

I agree unless we are talking about a slot guy like McConkey or Roman Wilson.

That’s kind of what I am saying. The gulf between 9 and 75 is a massive talent drop off, at just about every position of need. Ladd is like 5th or 6th WR and will go in round 2 early so that part of the draft would require us to trade back and get a 2nd.

Where I’m at:
Stay at 9 if MHJ, Nabors, Rome or Alt are available.

If those 4 are gone, trade back to:
Raiders 13,44
Saints 14,45
Colts? 15, 46

At (13-15) take Bowers, Verse, Murphy, Turner.

And a boatload of options at 44-46.

75 - I like Sedrick Van Pran, c. Haynes, or Safeties Kinchens/Bullock.

I think most would agree with that plan but the issue is figuring out who at #9 would those three teams value enough to give up that kind of draft capital. There's multiple good CBs and LTs where they could just wait until their pick. You mentioned the multiple d-line options and it's too early to move up for the 4th WR or o-lineman. Chances of JJ being there at #9 are extremely slim. Those you like at #13-15 aren't worth moving up for either, unless some team has Bowers/Turner as a 'must have' and are fearful a team in front of them wants him also. I haven't looked at the pick value chart but would assume, Bears would have to add so that #9 + ?? = #14 + #45

A QB falling to #9 may get Raiders Saints or Denver interested in that pick. Doubt JJ falls to 9 but Pennix will. If Denver and Raiders have Pennix on their Radar, they may want to move a couple spots to ensure the pick.

But if someone wants a non QB pick at 9, would guess it is a farther trade back and not as lucrative.


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[dice]

Well if not for that Sweat trade, Poles could've been in that position with the bears pick as well. Let's hope Sweat is > 2nd, plus haul from 4 or 5 spot (if it happens).

he was a deciding factor in 1 win, max. bears would've had 8 or 9 pick w/ or w/o the sweat acquisition

It's hard to quantify the impact of that move, but IMO it was a clear signal from Poles that this team is NOT tanking. The mindset of the team had changed, and they finally were looking like a decent team (at least on defense). While individually, Sweat alone may not have impacted the W/L column all that much, but the message, at least to me, made more of an impact.

What if instead of trading for Sweat, Poles sent the opposite message and traded away Jaylon Johnson (or similar tanking moves)? Where are they now? The opportunity cost of choosing to compete for the rest of the season may have been large. That's the scenario I'm weighing compared to where they are today.

the team already knew it wasn't a tank season. keeping justin and making significant additions in free agency showed that. but if it WAS a tank season, who cares? we saw how quickly things can turn around. whether that turnaround was the end of last season or the beginning of the coming season is immaterial

what are the biggest factors for next season and going forward?

1) caleb
2) coaching
3) #9 pick
4) whether late 2023 stevenson was a total fluke or is somewhat sustainable
5) ditto for entire season of JJ
6) progress of darnell wright

none of those factors are significantly impacted by the team winning a few more games late last year

[fleet]

Read on Twitter

[Jimako10]

he was a deciding factor in 1 win, max. bears would've had 8 or 9 pick w/ or w/o the sweat acquisition

It's hard to quantify the impact of that move, but IMO it was a clear signal from Poles that this team is NOT tanking. The mindset of the team had changed, and they finally were looking like a decent team (at least on defense). While individually, Sweat alone may not have impacted the W/L column all that much, but the message, at least to me, made more of an impact.

What if instead of trading for Sweat, Poles sent the opposite message and traded away Jaylon Johnson (or similar tanking moves)? Where are they now? The opportunity cost of choosing to compete for the rest of the season may have been large. That's the scenario I'm weighing compared to where they are today.

the team already knew it wasn't a tank season. keeping justin and making significant additions in free agency showed that. but if it WAS a tank season, who cares? we saw how quickly things can turn around. whether that turnaround was the end of last season or the beginning of the coming season is immaterial

what are the biggest factors for next season and going forward?

1) caleb
2) coaching
3) #9 pick
4) whether late 2023 stevenson was a total fluke or is somewhat sustainable
5) progress of darnell wright

none of those factors are significantly impacted by the team winning a few more games late last year

Oh I'm sure the team and Poles didn't go into the season thinking it was a tank season. Hell I thought they'd win 10 games with a moderate improvement from JF and a soft schedule.

My point is that when the Bears were 2-6, with almost no shot at a playoff berth, Poles decided THEN to trade for a pass rusher in order to compete for the rest of the season. That was the message he sent to the rest of the team that they weren't going to tank the rest of the way, even though everyone had already given up on them, including everyone on this board.

In the end, we got some decent vibes to end the season, HC job saved, a massive contract extension, loss of a 2nd round pick, and a worse draft position for the Bears pick.

If he had gone the other way and let's say he traded Jaylon Johnson for a 2nd round pick, what would we look like then?

We'd have the 1st and 5ish pick in the draft, THREE 2nd rounders, a new head coach, and even more cap space. Now imagine adding a haul for trading the bears pick. A treasure chest of assets that would even make Danny Ainge blush. They'd be set up for the long haul, assuming Caleb is the real deal.

[dice]

It's hard to quantify the impact of that move, but IMO it was a clear signal from Poles that this team is NOT tanking. The mindset of the team had changed, and they finally were looking like a decent team (at least on defense). While individually, Sweat alone may not have impacted the W/L column all that much, but the message, at least to me, made more of an impact.

What if instead of trading for Sweat, Poles sent the opposite message and traded away Jaylon Johnson (or similar tanking moves)? Where are they now? The opportunity cost of choosing to compete for the rest of the season may have been large. That's the scenario I'm weighing compared to where they are today.

the team already knew it wasn't a tank season. keeping justin and making significant additions in free agency showed that. but if it WAS a tank season, who cares? we saw how quickly things can turn around. whether that turnaround was the end of last season or the beginning of the coming season is immaterial

what are the biggest factors for next season and going forward?

1) caleb
2) coaching
3) #9 pick
4) whether late 2023 stevenson was a total fluke or is somewhat sustainable
5) progress of darnell wright

none of those factors are significantly impacted by the team winning a few more games late last year

Oh I'm sure the team and Poles didn't go into the season thinking it was a tank season. Hell I thought they'd win 10 games with a moderate improvement from JF and a soft schedule.

My point is that when the Bears were 2-6, with almost no shot at a playoff berth, Poles decided THEN to trade for a pass rusher in order to compete for the rest of the season. That was the message he sent to the rest of the team that they weren't going to tank the rest of the way, even though everyone had already given up on them, including everyone on this board.

In the end, we got some decent vibes to end the season, HC job saved, a massive contract extension, loss of a 2nd round pick, and a worse draft position for the Bears pick.

If he had gone the other way and let's say he traded Jaylon Johnson for a 2nd round pick, what would we look like then?

We'd have the 1st and 5ish pick in the draft, THREE 2nd rounders, a new head coach, and even more cap space. Now imagine adding a haul for trading the bears pick. A treasure chest of assets that would even make Danny Ainge blush. They'd be set up for the long haul, assuming Caleb is the real deal.

that's the best possible case for my argument against doubling down on a lost season. i think it goes a bit too far though

[fleet]

The Falcons and Vikings could conceivably flip picks as the Kirk Cousins tampering penalty. How it affects the Bears, not quite sure, but it increases the opportunity to trade up into the top 4 or 5 for a quarterback.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/could-a-falcons-vikings-tampering-settlement-be-announced-just-before-round-one-of-the-draft

[dice]

The Falcons and Vikings could conceivably flip picks as the Kirk Cousins tampering penalty. How it affects the Bears, not quite sure, but it increases the opportunity to trade up into the top 4 or 5 for a quarterback.

who cares? it would virtually ensure 4 QBs going top 8

[fleet]

The Falcons and Vikings could conceivably flip picks as the Kirk Cousins tampering penalty. How it affects the Bears, not quite sure, but it increases the opportunity to trade up into the top 4 or 5 for a quarterback.

who cares? it would virtually ensure 4 QBs going top 8

Is what I meant. The take it a step further, it’s possibly a negative for the Bears if they were targeting a receiver, because Atlanta was often mocked as going defense there at 8. If Arizona or LA end up with 8, they both need receivers.

[NecessaryEvil]

So Dallas falls to #9?

[dice]

The Falcons and Vikings could conceivably flip picks as the Kirk Cousins tampering penalty. How it affects the Bears, not quite sure, but it increases the opportunity to trade up into the top 4 or 5 for a quarterback.

who cares? it would virtually ensure 4 QBs going top 8

Is what I meant. The take it a step further, it’s possibly a negative for the Bears if they were targeting a receiver, because Atlanta was often mocked as going defense there at 8. If Arizona or LA end up with 8, they both need receivers.

as opposed to trading down to vikings current draft position. gotcha

[Jeffster81]

The Falcons and Vikings could conceivably flip picks as the Kirk Cousins tampering penalty. How it affects the Bears, not quite sure, but it increases the opportunity to trade up into the top 4 or 5 for a quarterback.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/could-a-falcons-vikings-tampering-settlement-be-announced-just-before-round-one-of-the-draft

Would not mind the NFL gifting the Bears a compensatory pick.

[Charlesareed]

who cares? it would virtually ensure 4 QBs going top 8

Is what I meant. The take it a step further, it’s possibly a negative for the Bears if they were targeting a receiver, because Atlanta was often mocked as going defense there at 8. If Arizona or LA end up with 8, they both need receivers.

as opposed to trading down to vikings current draft position. gotcha

What ever happens with Minnesota draft picks if I’m
Then I’m picking bo nix as my qb at 11 or if the flip picks trade back and grab Bo nix at end of first round then get Troy Franklin to pair with Justin jefferson at WR


FYI why don’t ppl like Bo nix he seems a good QB I’d rather have him over Micheal penix even if he wasn’t injury prone bo nix if the 3rd/4th best qb on n this draft he’s a sleeper because everyone is in love with JJ McCarthy Jayden danials & drake maye

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

Is what I meant. The take it a step further, it’s possibly a negative for the Bears if they were targeting a receiver, because Atlanta was often mocked as going defense there at 8. If Arizona or LA end up with 8, they both need receivers.

as opposed to trading down to vikings current draft position. gotcha

What ever happens with Minnesota draft picks if I’m
Then I’m picking bo nix as my qb at 11 or if the flip picks trade back and grab Bo nix at end of first round then get Troy Franklin to pair with Justin jefferson at WR


FYI why don’t ppl like Bo nix he seems a good QB I’d rather have him over Micheal penix even if he wasn’t injury prone bo nix if the 3rd/4th best qb on n this draft he’s a sleeper because everyone is in love with JJ McCarthy Jayden danials & drake maye

Teams probably don't see as high of a ceiling with him. If we didn't have the #1 pick I'd take Penix. Don't sleep on him.

[JockItch43]

as opposed to trading down to vikings current draft position. gotcha

What ever happens with Minnesota draft picks if I’m
Then I’m picking bo nix as my qb at 11 or if the flip picks trade back and grab Bo nix at end of first round then get Troy Franklin to pair with Justin jefferson at WR


FYI why don’t ppl like Bo nix he seems a good QB I’d rather have him over Micheal penix even if he wasn’t injury prone bo nix if the 3rd/4th best qb on n this draft he’s a sleeper because everyone is in love with JJ McCarthy Jayden danials & drake maye

Teams probably don't see as high of a ceiling with him. If we didn't have the #1 pick I'd take Penix. Don't sleep on him.

Penix made numerous, downfield, tight window, NFL throws that Nix could only dream of doing. I think the league looks at Nix as more of a lower ceiling, but solid, game manager. He can be good, but doubt he'll be great. When you draft a QB early, you should be searching for potential greatness.