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The Bulls biggest problem

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Who is the single biggest problem for the Bulls in 23-24?

Vuc
18
39%
Demar
1
2%
Zach
16
35%
Ball
3
7%
Carter
0
No votes
Donovan
8
17%
 
Total votes: 46

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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#41 » by League Circles » Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:53 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:
Not really. If everyone on the list is a problem, you don't really need a power ranking to know what you need to do with this roster.


You can't do things with rosters, you can only do things with contracts. In a sense, this is a question of which player or coach contract we most need to move.


Ehh, the rosters vs. contracts terminology is just semantics.

My point here is that you don't need to know which problem is worst - it's sufficient to identify the problems and say "these are the people that need to go." Identifying whether something is a problem is more important than trying to rank them.

League Circles wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:
I don't know for how long, but this version of DeMar could probably be the #2 on a championship team if your #1 were, say, Jokic, Doncic, Saha, etc.

But yep, the issue here isn't so much the players listed, it's the lack of a real #1.


Fair enough, and I agree. But this is about the specific personnel problems that we have, not problems of who we don't have. We need to do things with these crappy contracts, whether you believe we need to tank, clear opportunities for mew guys, or clear cap space, it's really all the same - guys need to GO.


Agreed. When I say that the biggest problem is the lack of a #1 player, I think that's important because, like your'e saying, it suggests what needs to be done. If we had a #1, then that would suggest you need to reshuffle some pieces to build a better team. But the Bulls have a bunch of vets that are good enough to drag them to the play-in (likely making it a lot harder to build through the draft) and are light on draft assets in the first place. There isn't a path to make this current core a contender, so really all the vets should go. Continue developing Coby and Ayo, get draft assets, and let's try to build/reboot this thing properly.

Now, if you're going to keep doing what AK has been doing, then sure, you can care more about self-evaluating the vets and figure out how to try to make a presumably Zach-free roster more competitive. There are better and worse ways to execute that plan, and we talk about a lot of those on this board, but the overarching thing is that it's just fundamentally the wrong course of action.

So, getting to your original post, the entire list is a problem and the Bulls should be moving on from all of it, regardless of which is the "worst." Some of those guys are only "problems" as it pertains to the Bulls - DeMar is an actual impact player, he just doesn't make sense for this team long-term. Others would be problems anywhere, like Vooch, given his decline and contract. So some are going to be more moveable than others, and you just might have to wait out the guys that have a negative asset value, but the Bulls should be exploring options to get rid of all of it.



The thing is, it's almost certainly not possible to get rid of all the vets, and even if we could, it's very far from automatic that we'd be terrible with the resulting roster, because matching contract rules dictates that we'd be taking back a LOT of nba caliber players. Everybody talks about "picks and expirings" like that's just something you can pick off a tree at will. The reality IMO is that even if you can actually move most of these guys, instead of good picks and bad expirings coming back in return, we'd most likely get bad picks and mediocre players coming right back to us, preventing any successful tank. And I won't even get into how bad of an idea tanking is in 2024 anyways due to draft odds. Besides everything else I just mentioned, there is a sequence to consider here. Even if you do believe that we can and should "get rid of everyone to start a rebuild properly", it's not possible to all happen at once, and the first domino needs to be considered. I say Vuc. Why? If for no other reasons, Demar is a free agent so doesn't need to be dumped if we don't want him, Zach is highly paid and hurt and very unlikely to be tradable this summer, same with Ball of course. That leaves Carter and Billy. I think Carter is unmovable by himself in the kind of deal we'd want, at least until after the FA dust settles this summer.

Only 2 of the top 4 seeds in each conference are led by a guy they drafted with a high draft pick (MN and Boston). Everybody else is led by guys drafted at like #11 or later (SGA, Jokic, Kawhi, Brunson, Giannis, Mitchell). The idea that you have to, can and should tank for an elite pick to get a franchise player is absurdly dated IMO.

So yeah, we need a franchise player. So let's start creating multiple avenues for CHANCES to get such a player. Yes of course draft picks are one way, the higher the better. But creating opportunities (playing time available and cap space) absolutely cannot be overlooked. We're too desperate.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#42 » by Stratmaster » Thu Apr 11, 2024 10:20 pm

Obviously Ball, then Billy, then PWill then Lavine.

But if you eliminate injured players:

Billy
Vuc
Demar



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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#43 » by Rose2Boozer » Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:00 am

Ball. A non tax paying team can't have twenty million dollars of waste on their roster for multiple years. The Bulls had early success with Lonzo and now AKME can't unsee it.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#44 » by dougthonus » Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:24 am

If we're just looking at players, then I don't think it's fair to hold what we traded for Vuc, against Vuc. That would really be just backing your way into AK. The transaction to acquire Vuc is our single biggest problem, but that's a bit different.

So in that sense, if looking at this year + future:
#1: Zach - He doesn't want to be here, he's presently hurt, he was having an awful season, and he makes the most and has the most years left on that deal.

#2: Vuc - Could make a case for him being #1, because while he only clogs up half the cap of Zach and has one less year, he actually hurts the team more when he plays given that he can't defend, he's among the least efficient offensive guys in the league, and he pouts and whines when he doesn't get touches. This could all be solved by Donovan just benching his ass and having a hard conversation though, so if the coach / GM would open their eyes on this guy most of Vuc's problems could be resolved, and then he'd just be overpaid by 10M a year for two years and while lousy that's not team sinking.

#3: Lonzo - Not his fault, but he's just 20M of dead value for 3.5 years of his 4 year deal. However, for this year + future that's relatively low impact.

#4: Patrick Williams - Not entirely his fault, but we put so many eggs in his basket, and he didn't meaningfully improve or get to where we needed him to be, then missed half the year again. It's not his fault we didn't add another PF or that he got hurt, but in terms of impact on the team, we really, really needed Pat to step up and be very good for this team to have a shot, and he didn't.

No one else is really relevant here. Donovan isn't an active negative on the team. Carter is a slight negative, but nothing meaningful, even if you view him as an absolute zero (and really he's just another way to back into AK being so stupid as to look at this team and say we need 3 PGs).
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#45 » by coldfish » Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:32 am

dougthonus wrote:If we're just looking at players, then I don't think it's fair to hold what we traded for Vuc, against Vuc. That would really be just backing your way into AK. The transaction to acquire Vuc is our single biggest problem, but that's a bit different.

So in that sense, if looking at this year + future:
#1: Zach - He doesn't want to be here, he's presently hurt, he was having an awful season, and he makes the most and has the most years left on that deal.

#2: Vuc - Could make a case for him being #1, because while he only clogs up half the cap of Zach and has one less year, he actually hurts the team more when he plays given that he can't defend, he's among the least efficient offensive guys in the league, and he pouts and whines when he doesn't get touches. This could all be solved by Donovan just benching his ass and having a hard conversation though, so if the coach / GM would open their eyes on this guy most of Vuc's problems could be resolved, and then he'd just be overpaid by 10M a year for two years and while lousy that's not team sinking.

#3: Lonzo - Not his fault, but he's just 20M of dead value for 3.5 years of his 4 year deal. However, for this year + future that's relatively low impact.

#4: Patrick Williams - Not entirely his fault, but we put so many eggs in his basket, and he didn't meaningfully improve or get to where we needed him to be, then missed half the year again. It's not his fault we didn't add another PF or that he got hurt, but in terms of impact on the team, we really, really needed Pat to step up and be very good for this team to have a shot, and he didn't.

No one else is really relevant here. Donovan isn't an active negative on the team. Carter is a slight negative, but nothing meaningful, even if you view him as an absolute zero (and really he's just another way to back into AK being so stupid as to look at this team and say we need 3 PGs).


Good breakdown.

When you step back and look at the team, its surprising they didn't win 20 games this year. They have been relying on end of bench players and role guys to keep everything held together. The fact that Javonte Green has come in off the street and been one of the better players says a lot for the talent level here.

Going forward, they need to turn Lavine and Ball's salary into the most productive players they can get, figure out what to do with Patrick and draft well. They have painted themselves into a corner so badly they really don't have many paths open to them.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#46 » by ChiTownHero1992 » Fri Apr 12, 2024 12:22 pm

Bulliever2020 wrote:Ownership


Why isn't this an option it has been the #1 problem for years

It should be:

1. Ownership
2. FO
3. Coaching
4. Injuries (Lonzo/Lavine) & Medical Staff
5a. Overvalued mid-level talent (Patrick/Vuc/Lavine)
5b. Overvalued low-level talent (Carter/Craig)
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#47 » by League Circles » Fri Apr 12, 2024 2:26 pm

ChiTownHero1992 wrote:
Bulliever2020 wrote:Ownership


Why isn't this an option it has been the #1 problem for years

It should be:

1. Ownership
2. FO
3. Coaching
4. Injuries (Lonzo/Lavine) & Medical Staff
5a. Overvalued mid-level talent (Patrick/Vuc/Lavine)
5b. Overvalued low-level talent (Carter/Craig)

It's not an option because it's incredibly uninteresting and already covered to death. This is about the roster, the things that AK could potentially make changes with. This is a question essentially of which contract problem AK should prioritize dealing with first.

Also, nobody knows a damn thing about how good of an executive anyone will be until they do the job. With players and coaches you can much more easily project how they will perform, so it's a much more interesting conversation. When we hired AK the majority of posters were illogically optimistic that he'd be good. The same will be true of his replacement, unless the replacement has already done a good job as an exec elsewhere, and those guys rarely become available.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#48 » by HearshotKDS » Fri Apr 12, 2024 4:45 pm

League Circles wrote:
HearshotKDS wrote:
League Circles wrote:Everybody I listed is a problem. I'm asking who is the biggest problem, not the only one. That's the only coherent way to identify ways to improve.

OK IMO the biggest problem is the Bulls have no top 10-15 players in the NBA, no players in development who can likely reach that level of play, and an aging roster that beyond 2-3 guys will likely not be here when they finally get one. Building a team around players you shouldnt build a team around is a management issue, I dont think its reasonable to say "well if Vuc could just be prime Jokic or if Lavine was SGA we'd be on the right path" or whatever equivalent of that you want, the problem was the decision to bring in or extend one player when you really needed a different better player instead.


I don't necessarily disagree. But you have to start somewhere, and that somewhere has to be the contracts we're actually holding right now. The past is the past. This wasn't intended to be an exercise in grading the past or anything, just an assessment of the relative sizes of our current roster problems.

I feel like this is shifting the question in your original post from "What was the biggest detriment this season" to "what do we do next". If were looking at biggest detrimental contracts for the 2023-24 season and going forward to me its clearly Lavine - hes being paid to be a super star but instead gave the team 25 games of poor play and is now injured and disgruntled. If its we have to start somewhere so where do we start, I think the most important thing is not create new problems to add to the very healthy list of problems by signing Demar and/or PWill to bad long term contracts. NEither of those 2 players were major issues this season though imo, unless you count "Youre not Giannis" as a PAtrick WIlliams issue - if he was Giannis that would solve a ton of this teams short and long term problems.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#49 » by MrSparkle » Fri Apr 12, 2024 5:06 pm

Saw a reddit post that compiled the offensive analytics for the team. The team is dead last 30th in: off-ball cuts, off-ball screens, dribble hand-offs, and transition possessions.

That’s not taking into account our bad shooting and offensive rebounding (when Drummond’s not playing his 15 mpg).

Billy, AK, ME, Vuc and the mediocre passing and inconsistent spacing abilities of every player on this team all point to issues with this team’s offense, regardless of health. Is it weird that we lost starters and actually played better? Not really. The core game plan sucks, and losing guys actually put bad shooters in a better rhythm and made for less predictable sets.

AKME have been targeting iso midrange scorers and defensive guards with limited offensive ability. Teams like Utah who have the analytics scouting and buy-low/sell-high settings turned to the max are trying their best to lose games and barely trailing the Bulls in wins.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#50 » by League Circles » Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:06 pm

HearshotKDS wrote:
League Circles wrote:
HearshotKDS wrote:OK IMO the biggest problem is the Bulls have no top 10-15 players in the NBA, no players in development who can likely reach that level of play, and an aging roster that beyond 2-3 guys will likely not be here when they finally get one. Building a team around players you shouldnt build a team around is a management issue, I dont think its reasonable to say "well if Vuc could just be prime Jokic or if Lavine was SGA we'd be on the right path" or whatever equivalent of that you want, the problem was the decision to bring in or extend one player when you really needed a different better player instead.


I don't necessarily disagree. But you have to start somewhere, and that somewhere has to be the contracts we're actually holding right now. The past is the past. This wasn't intended to be an exercise in grading the past or anything, just an assessment of the relative sizes of our current roster problems.

I feel like this is shifting the question in your original post from "What was the biggest detriment this season" to "what do we do next". If were looking at biggest detrimental contracts for the 2023-24 season and going forward to me its clearly Lavine - hes being paid to be a super star but instead gave the team 25 games of poor play and is now injured and disgruntled. If its we have to start somewhere so where do we start, I think the most important thing is not create new problems to add to the very healthy list of problems by signing Demar and/or PWill to bad long term contracts. NEither of those 2 players were major issues this season though imo, unless you count "Youre not Giannis" as a PAtrick WIlliams issue - if he was Giannis that would solve a ton of this teams short and long term problems.

To me, the two questions are basically one question. The purpose of determining the biggest current problem is to best decide what to do with our "assets". I think Zach is a reasonable choice as the biggest problem. For me he's #2 behind Vuc, simply because I have a lot more optimism that he'll turn it around than I do that Vuc will.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#51 » by League Circles » Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:19 pm

MrSparkle wrote:Saw a reddit post that compiled the offensive analytics for the team. The team is dead last 30th in: off-ball cuts, off-ball screens, dribble hand-offs, and transition possessions.

That’s not taking into account our bad shooting and offensive rebounding (when Drummond’s not playing his 15 mpg).

Billy, AK, ME, Vuc and the mediocre passing and inconsistent spacing abilities of every player on this team all point to issues with this team’s offense, regardless of health. Is it weird that we lost starters and actually played better? Not really. The core game plan sucks, and losing guys actually put bad shooters in a better rhythm and made for less predictable sets.

AKME have been targeting iso midrange scorers and defensive guards with limited offensive ability. Teams like Utah who have the analytics scouting and buy-low/sell-high settings turned to the max are trying their best to lose games and barely trailing the Bulls in wins.

Utah is barely trailing the Bulls in wins? And they're trying their best to lose games yet still 7 teams are worse???
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#52 » by meekrab » Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:44 pm

Paying 70-odd million dollars to three guys who played 68 games combined was the biggest problem for this season.

You can criticize Vuc all you want but half our salary cap was dead money, no team is going to be successful in that scenario.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#53 » by MrSparkle » Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:46 pm

League Circles wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:Saw a reddit post that compiled the offensive analytics for the team. The team is dead last 30th in: off-ball cuts, off-ball screens, dribble hand-offs, and transition possessions.

That’s not taking into account our bad shooting and offensive rebounding (when Drummond’s not playing his 15 mpg).

Billy, AK, ME, Vuc and the mediocre passing and inconsistent spacing abilities of every player on this team all point to issues with this team’s offense, regardless of health. Is it weird that we lost starters and actually played better? Not really. The core game plan sucks, and losing guys actually put bad shooters in a better rhythm and made for less predictable sets.

AKME have been targeting iso midrange scorers and defensive guards with limited offensive ability. Teams like Utah who have the analytics scouting and buy-low/sell-high settings turned to the max are trying their best to lose games and barely trailing the Bulls in wins.

Utah is barely trailing the Bulls in wins? And they're trying their best to lose games yet still 7 teams are worse???


Yeah to both?
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#54 » by League Circles » Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:50 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
League Circles wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:Saw a reddit post that compiled the offensive analytics for the team. The team is dead last 30th in: off-ball cuts, off-ball screens, dribble hand-offs, and transition possessions.

That’s not taking into account our bad shooting and offensive rebounding (when Drummond’s not playing his 15 mpg).

Billy, AK, ME, Vuc and the mediocre passing and inconsistent spacing abilities of every player on this team all point to issues with this team’s offense, regardless of health. Is it weird that we lost starters and actually played better? Not really. The core game plan sucks, and losing guys actually put bad shooters in a better rhythm and made for less predictable sets.

AKME have been targeting iso midrange scorers and defensive guards with limited offensive ability. Teams like Utah who have the analytics scouting and buy-low/sell-high settings turned to the max are trying their best to lose games and barely trailing the Bulls in wins.

Utah is barely trailing the Bulls in wins? And they're trying their best to lose games yet still 7 teams are worse???


Yeah to both?


To me, 8 wins is kind of a lot, and if you're trying your best to lose games and 7 teams are still worse, you're not doing a very "good" job of losing.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#55 » by Almost Retired » Fri Apr 12, 2024 7:10 pm

plenty of blame to go around. But the worst thing is does anyone think we'll see improvement next year with a mediocre Draft this year? Or the year after that? Or 2027? 2028? I don't see a path to relevance as a title contender anywhere down the line. The Bears have stolen any interest I had in the Bulls. I'm excited for the NFL Draft. I'm not enthused about the NBA Draft at all. No needle movers where we're picking. I think the Bears are legit playoff contenders this coming season. While the Bulls are just play-in cannon fodder. No hope whatsoever. And there are no miracle trades or some generational Draft talent coming our way to matter. The Bulls are mediocre and will continue to be mediocre for years to come. Unfortunately.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#56 » by wojoaderge » Fri Apr 12, 2024 7:15 pm

meekrab wrote:Paying 70-odd million dollars to three guys who played 68 games combined was the biggest problem for this season.

You can criticize Vuc all you want but half our salary cap was dead money, no team is going to be successful in that scenario.

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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#57 » by MrSparkle » Fri Apr 12, 2024 7:36 pm

League Circles wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
League Circles wrote:Utah is barely trailing the Bulls in wins? And they're trying their best to lose games yet still 7 teams are worse???


Yeah to both?


To me, 8 wins is kind of a lot, and if you're trying your best to lose games and 7 teams are still worse, you're not doing a very "good" job of losing.


Well, that’s my point. Ainge tried to tank 2y in a row and couldn’t get a bottom-5 record. Analytically the team is built to make 3Ps and run, which is probably why they won more than they desired to.

Their net rating is 3 spots behind us. It was actually better most the season, and I’d say they’re better than their record (esp. with Lauri/Clarkson resting injuries extra hard), but they shut down Lauri and have free fallen.
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#58 » by Dan Z » Fri Apr 12, 2024 8:12 pm

Almost Retired wrote:plenty of blame to go around. But the worst thing is does anyone think we'll see improvement next year with a mediocre Draft this year? Or the year after that? Or 2027? 2028? I don't see a path to relevance as a title contender anywhere down the line. The Bears have stolen any interest I had in the Bulls. I'm excited for the NFL Draft. I'm not enthused about the NBA Draft at all. No needle movers where we're picking. I think the Bears are legit playoff contenders this coming season. While the Bulls are just play-in cannon fodder. No hope whatsoever. And there are no miracle trades or some generational Draft talent coming our way to matter. The Bulls are mediocre and will continue to be mediocre for years to come. Unfortunately.


The problem is when AK got here they stopped looking for a franchise player and decided to go in a "win now" direction without one.

The team played well for a few months when Lonzo was healthy, but how far was that team really going to go?
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#59 » by League Circles » Fri Apr 12, 2024 8:16 pm

Almost Retired wrote:plenty of blame to go around. But the worst thing is does anyone think we'll see improvement next year with a mediocre Draft this year? Or the year after that? Or 2027? 2028? I don't see a path to relevance as a title contender anywhere down the line. The Bears have stolen any interest I had in the Bulls. I'm excited for the NFL Draft. I'm not enthused about the NBA Draft at all. No needle movers where we're picking. I think the Bears are legit playoff contenders this coming season. While the Bulls are just play-in cannon fodder. No hope whatsoever. And there are no miracle trades or some generational Draft talent coming our way to matter. The Bulls are mediocre and will continue to be mediocre for years to come. Unfortunately.

I think 6 of the 8 top seeds this year are led by guys drafted #11 or later. There is virtually always an impact player or two available at #11. Usually harder to identify of course, but it's certainly possible. But just because improvement seems distant doesn't mean we shouldn't try. I want to prioritize moving at least 2 of Vuc, Zach, and Carter, sign Demar, Drummond and Patrick to team friendly deals (which can mean a lot of different things - for example I'd be willing to pay Demar the max for a 1+1 team option deal but wouldn't pay him 30 mil for a longer deal).
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Re: The Bulls biggest problem 

Post#60 » by MrSparkle » Fri Apr 12, 2024 8:30 pm

Dan Z wrote:
Almost Retired wrote:plenty of blame to go around. But the worst thing is does anyone think we'll see improvement next year with a mediocre Draft this year? Or the year after that? Or 2027? 2028? I don't see a path to relevance as a title contender anywhere down the line. The Bears have stolen any interest I had in the Bulls. I'm excited for the NFL Draft. I'm not enthused about the NBA Draft at all. No needle movers where we're picking. I think the Bears are legit playoff contenders this coming season. While the Bulls are just play-in cannon fodder. No hope whatsoever. And there are no miracle trades or some generational Draft talent coming our way to matter. The Bulls are mediocre and will continue to be mediocre for years to come. Unfortunately.


The problem is when AK got here they stopped looking for a franchise player and decided to go in a "win now" direction without one.

The team played well for a few months when Lonzo was healthy, but how far was that team really going to go?


I was happy with that concept. Winning 45+ games is a good place to be in. All your player trade values increase. We also still had quite a decent pool of prospects, and the salary structure/flexibility was perfect.

The lack of moves afterwards is the big issue. It was painfully obvious that at best, Lonzo would never be as good again, and at worst, he'd never play a game again... and having more and more sample size of how bad Vuc+Zach were... and getting a clearer and clearer picture of how Patrick, Coby, etc. are not star caliber players...

If he pivoted quickly from the slow-moving explosion, we'd be in a better place. Instead he's doubled down through 3 trade deadlines and 2 summers, and now is faced with a really challenging off-season. The total irrelevance of Marko, Patrick, Terry and Phillips really hurts too, as time passes.

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