Your offseason plans for the Bulls

[sco]

I am pretty sure you yourself had a post about how they could keep DDR and Williams and get rid of ball and keep it under the luxury tax. I am unwilling to spend the time to search for it but I am pretty sure you posted that exact thing.

Lots of things there have changed:
1: Bulls apparently offered DeMar 40M per year, which is 13M more than my projection
2: Depends if you are waiving and stretching (and keeping Lonzo on your books for 3 years or just getting medical retirement, which then means he has to not play in the league this year). You had Lonzo's salary counted in your projections
3: I didn't have us doing S&Ts and using exceptions to bring in other players, which you do

Apologies for poor formatting, but here's a projection using the minimal roster size of 13 with Lonzo stretched, DeMar's updated reported offer on the books, and Pat at 16M (long term deal). We could let Pat walk of course, or his QO is 12M if no one else makes him an offer, but without using any exceptions or bringing in any players over the min besides our draft pick, we're presently sitting at 6M in the tax with the 16M Pat and 40M DeMar assumptions and Lonzo stretched.
1 Zach LaVine $43,031,940
2 Lonzo Ball $7,131,783
3 DeMar DeRozan $40,000,000
4 Nikola Vucevic $20,000,000
5 Patrick Williams $16,000,000
6 Coby White $12,000,000
7 Alex Caruso $9,890,000
8 Ayo Dosunmu $7,000,000
9 Jevon Carter $6,500,000
10 Dalen Terry $3,510,480
11 Torey Craig PO $2,845,342
12 #11 draft $5,210,760
13 Vet Min $2,200,000
14 Julian Phillips $1,891,857

Total $177,212,162
Cap $139,000,000
Tax $171,000,000
Room Under tax -$6,212,162
Room Under cap -$38,212,162

IF you want to bring in FAs on top of that, you're adding more to the pot. If you can move Zach to save money (depending on if you trade him to a team below or above the various aprons, the minimum we'd have to take back is 34.4M-39M, so there may be some wiggle room there if you could find the exact correct trade partner, but the reality is that will likely prove very difficult to do.

If I were to guess, I think the Bulls base plan (in a sense their worst case scenario plan) is basically what you have listed with these changes:

1. I doubt Craig will pick up his PO, and I think his roster replacement will be a true minimum guy at 1.1 million.
2. Same deal for #13 - a true minimum guy not a vet min.
3. They're probably not planning on offering Patrick that much anymore. Probably just 12 mil to start now.

Now, I think they'll still look at all these things but will definitely be trying to prioritize shedding some salary by sending out some combination of Vuc, Zach, Terry, Carter in trade and having less money coming back in return.

In listening to one of the pundits the other day, he noted that the Bulls should either extend Caruso (I think his max was 4/$79) or trade him. I agree...probably trade him. If for a future 1st, it gets them out of the tax, although my preferred move would be to use him to bring back a young PF from LA like Hachimura or Vandy, or to rid us of Vuc's deal.

[MalagaBulls]

We're pretty much stuffed unless hardheaded AK sees the light, which I doubt happens:

Read on Twitter

[boozapalooza]

I agree with the vast majority of your post, so I’ll just note a couple things where I disagree. I *think* the Bulls won’t give Pat a huge deal and that he may well play on the QO.



My suspicion is that Vooch has a negative asset value and therefore can’t be traded unless you’re willing to take on a longer deal a team is looking to shed. And I could be willing to do that, but I don’t think you’re getting any meaningful draft capital for him. I think the best you could hope for is something like Portland wanting to get off Jerami Grant’s deal or something like that (which I’d do in the scenario of accepting the Bulls won’t blow it up).

I struggle with Vucevic. He is basically a filler guy. I would happily trade him for pure capspace but as you note, I don't think that's happening. If faced with taking on horrible contracts for him, I guess I would keep him.

IMO one of the big issues with Vucevic is BD. He gives him waaaaaaay too long of a leash and the offense needs to change to get him away from the 3p line.

100%. Assuming he can’t fix his shot (and he’s really only had a couple of good seasons from 3, IIRC), he’d be more effective by just not bothering. The pick and pop thing is just not gonna work.

To your point, if I could just snap my fingers and disappear him from the roster, I would. I just don’t know what you’d get back in return for him that wouldn’t potentially be worse than just riding it out, though.

I don’t know, is it crazy to think a desperate franchise like Charlotte or Detroit could be willing to take on Vuc’s 2/40 contract in order to improve their team and sell their fanbase on a fairly consistent 18/10 big man? I could see it post-FA from a team who strikes out too. Even with his flaws Vuc still puts up decent numbers and is a steady vet presence. He has been able to stay healthy also, fwiw. I think we could get a future protected pick from the right temam.

[Dan Z]

We're pretty much stuffed unless hardheaded AK sees the light, which I doubt happens:

Read on Twitter

They might be able to figure some of that out with a Zach trade during the season (or if a decent one is there in the off season), but that still won't solve all their problems.

If Drummond leaves who is the backup center?

It's also possible that DDR leaves because he doesn't have many more years playing at a top level (but might just take the money and stay).

[Dan Z]

I struggle with Vucevic. He is basically a filler guy. I would happily trade him for pure capspace but as you note, I don't think that's happening. If faced with taking on horrible contracts for him, I guess I would keep him.

IMO one of the big issues with Vucevic is BD. He gives him waaaaaaay too long of a leash and the offense needs to change to get him away from the 3p line.

100%. Assuming he can’t fix his shot (and he’s really only had a couple of good seasons from 3, IIRC), he’d be more effective by just not bothering. The pick and pop thing is just not gonna work.

To your point, if I could just snap my fingers and disappear him from the roster, I would. I just don’t know what you’d get back in return for him that wouldn’t potentially be worse than just riding it out, though.

I don’t know, is it crazy to think a desperate franchise like Charlotte or Detroit could be willing to take on Vuc’s 2/40 contract in order to improve their team and sell their fanbase on a fairly consistent 18/10 big man? I could see it post-FA from a team who strikes out too. Even with his flaws Vuc still puts up decent numbers and is a steady vet presence. He has been able to stay healthy also, fwiw. I think we could get a future protected pick from the right temam.

The issue with that is AK. If he trades Vucevic then who plays center? He'd have to get one back or somehow save money in the deal and be okay with Drummond starting (if they can re-sign him). The other option is drafting a center, but do they want to start a rookie?

[step]

We're pretty much stuffed unless hardheaded AK sees the light, which I doubt happens:

Read on Twitter

I think it largely forces a Zach trade to be a straight salary dump, no longer seeking 'value'/'win now players' in return... It'll be whoever can offer the most savings wins.

Though, I am starting to sway into the camp of - 'please someone save us from paying Demar that much' and hope he chases a 3/4 year deal for $130M+. Not that I don't think he's worth it, just that it hamstrings us so much that we'd be forced to part with others.

[dougthonus]

So thinking about it:

My off-season plan:
1: Trade Alex Caruso for a mid 1st round pick
2: S&T DeMar to wherever he wants to go, look for either a large TPE or mid 1st round pick
- if I get the TPE, use it to take on salary and a mid 1st round pick
3: Shop Coby White and trade him for a lotto pick if available or two mid 1sts if available otherwise keep him (to the Spurs for our pick back and a future lotto protected 1st feels like an option to me)
4: If I can't trade Coby, shop Ayo for the same return and trade if it's available
5: Resign Pat if I can get him for 15M per year or less, aim for 3-4 years
6: Rehab Zach LaVine's value over the season and look to trade at the deadline (under the assumption nothing good is out there now otherwise just trade now)
7: If I can move Vuc for an expiring do it. If I can move him for 2/40M of dead salary and a pick do it (if something better obviously do that too)
8: If I'm still far enough under the tax to have room, see if I can use the MLE to take on dead money and get someone out of the tax for a pick.

Bring in whatever pieces you want that you think might have potential for the long term.

[Chi town]

I think AK trades Caruso with Vuc to get rid of Vuc and clear cap. Awful trade.

[Chi town]

I will be shocked if Zach is worth pure cap space.

With his injury I would think his value are two meh rotation players like Barnes and Huerter on 2-3 yr deals.

[Chi town]

So thinking about it:

My off-season plan:
1: Trade Alex Caruso for a mid 1st round pick
2: S&T DeMar to wherever he wants to go, look for either a large TPE or mid 1st round pick
- if I get the TPE, use it to take on salary and a mid 1st round pick
3: Shop Coby White and trade him for a lotto pick if available or two mid 1sts if available otherwise keep him (to the Spurs for our pick back and a future lotto protected 1st feels like an option to me)
4: If I can't trade Coby, shop Ayo for the same return and trade if it's available
5: Resign Pat if I can get him for 15M per year or less, aim for 3-4 years
6: Rehab Zach LaVine's value over the season and look to trade at the deadline (under the assumption nothing good is out there now otherwise just trade now)
7: If I can move Vuc for an expiring do it. If I can move him for 2/40M of dead salary and a pick do it (if something better obviously do that too)
8: If I'm still far enough under the tax to have room, see if I can use the MLE to take on dead money and get someone out of the tax for a pick.

Bring in whatever pieces you want that you think might have potential for the long term.

Why trade Coby and Ayo for a mid 1st in a bad draft? Why not keep them and let them see what they can become outside of the meh 3?

[coldfish]

So thinking about it:

My off-season plan:
1: Trade Alex Caruso for a mid 1st round pick
2: S&T DeMar to wherever he wants to go, look for either a large TPE or mid 1st round pick
- if I get the TPE, use it to take on salary and a mid 1st round pick
3: Shop Coby White and trade him for a lotto pick if available or two mid 1sts if available otherwise keep him (to the Spurs for our pick back and a future lotto protected 1st feels like an option to me)
4: If I can't trade Coby, shop Ayo for the same return and trade if it's available
5: Resign Pat if I can get him for 15M per year or less, aim for 3-4 years
6: Rehab Zach LaVine's value over the season and look to trade at the deadline (under the assumption nothing good is out there now otherwise just trade now)
7: If I can move Vuc for an expiring do it. If I can move him for 2/40M of dead salary and a pick do it (if something better obviously do that too)
8: If I'm still far enough under the tax to have room, see if I can use the MLE to take on dead money and get someone out of the tax for a pick.

Bring in whatever pieces you want that you think might have potential for the long term.

Just as a general note, when you think about it its hilariously dumb to resign Demar for $40m per year and then dump Lavine at his lowest value. Just childish level logic "he was mean to me so trade him", "he was nice to me so give him whatever he wants".

[dougthonus]

Why trade Coby and Ayo for a mid 1st in a bad draft? Why not keep them and let them see what they can become outside of the meh 3?

I didn't say trade them for a mid round 1st in this draft. I said a lottery pick or two mid round picks, and I didn't specify draft. Obviously, you'd need to evaluate any offer depending on what you think you'd get.

The reason I'd look to move one now is that I don't think their value will go above what I just listed there, and you only have two more years before they are very young UFAs that are highly skilled on the open market. It's unlikely that you will be able to afford both of them and still have a good team given that (like literally expect max offers for both guys, see FVV).

So given that I don't think you can justify both those guys on max deals because they'll both end up heavily overpaid, look to get assets for one of them and keep the other. My preference is to keep Ayo of the two because he's a two way guy, and I don't think Coby is good enough as a scorer to justify being a #1 option.

In general, I think this plan helps you build something in 26/27 and beyond which is what I would be aiming all my moves at.

[Chi town]

Why trade Coby and Ayo for a mid 1st in a bad draft? Why not keep them and let them see what they can become outside of the meh 3?

I didn't say trade them for a mid round 1st in this draft. I said a lottery pick or two mid round picks, and I didn't specify draft. Obviously, you'd need to evaluate any offer depending on what you think you'd get.

The reason I'd look to move one now is that I don't think their value will go above what I just listed there, and you only have two more years before they are very young UFAs that are highly skilled on the open market. It's unlikely that you will be able to afford both of them and still have a good team given that (like literally expect max offers for both guys, see FVV).

So given that I don't think you can justify both those guys on max deals because they'll both end up heavily overpaid, look to get assets for one of them and keep the other. My preference is to keep Ayo of the two because he's a two way guy, and I don't think Coby is good enough as a scorer to justify being a #1 option.

In general, I think this plan helps you build something in 26/27 and beyond which is what I would be aiming all my moves at.

Gotcha.

I think in a post meh 3 era they will both climb and raise their value next season beyond their current worth. It’s also risky to trade players now for a future pick when they could really help the team they are going to

[Chi town]

I think the best we can do for Lavine without him playing and rehabbing his value is…

Sac for Barnes, Huerter and a pick

Pistons for Stewart Sasser space and a pick.

[dougthonus]

Gotcha.

I think in a post meh 3 era they will both climb and raise their value next season beyond their current worth. It’s also risky to trade players now for a future pick when they could really help the team they are going to

There is definitely risk to trading young, good players. I'm sure it's the most controversial part of my plan, and I agree that it could go against you.

[dougthonus]

I think the best we can do for Lavine without him panting and rehabbing his value is…

Sac for Barnes, Huerter and a pick

Pistons for Stewart Sasser space and a pick.

If the Kings would do that deal, you should be all over it even without the pick. Same with the Pistons deal.

[Guru]

I am pretty sure you yourself had a post about how they could keep DDR and Williams and get rid of ball and keep it under the luxury tax. I am unwilling to spend the time to search for it but I am pretty sure you posted that exact thing.

Lots of things there have changed:
1: Bulls apparently offered DeMar 40M per year, which is 13M more than my projection
2: Depends if you are waiving and stretching (and keeping Lonzo on your books for 3 years or just getting medical retirement, which then means he has to not play in the league this year). You had Lonzo's salary counted in your projections
3: I didn't have us doing S&Ts and using exceptions to bring in other players, which you do

Apologies for poor formatting, but here's a projection using the minimal roster size of 13 with Lonzo stretched, DeMar's updated reported offer on the books, and Pat at 16M (long term deal). We could let Pat walk of course, or his QO is 12M if no one else makes him an offer, but without using any exceptions or bringing in any players over the min besides our draft pick, we're presently sitting at 6M in the tax with the 16M Pat and 40M DeMar assumptions and Lonzo stretched.
1 Zach LaVine $43,031,940
2 Lonzo Ball $7,131,783
3 DeMar DeRozan $40,000,000
4 Nikola Vucevic $20,000,000
5 Patrick Williams $16,000,000
6 Coby White $12,000,000
7 Alex Caruso $9,890,000
8 Ayo Dosunmu $7,000,000
9 Jevon Carter $6,500,000
10 Dalen Terry $3,510,480
11 Torey Craig PO $2,845,342
12 #11 draft $5,210,760
13 Vet Min $2,200,000
14 Julian Phillips $1,891,857

Total $177,212,162
Cap $139,000,000
Tax $171,000,000
Room Under tax -$6,212,162
Room Under cap -$38,212,162

IF you want to bring in FAs on top of that, you're adding more to the pot. If you can move Zach to save money (depending on if you trade him to a team below or above the various aprons, the minimum we'd have to take back is 34.4M-39M, so there may be some wiggle room there if you could find the exact correct trade partner, but the reality is that will likely prove very difficult to do.

You must not have read what I wrote. I specifically said not to pay him 40M. I also don't believe the Bulls offered him 40M. This seems like speculation.

"A source said the Bulls recently offered DeRozan’s representative a two-year deal at a high annual salary, perhaps as much as $40 million per season"

[dougthonus]

You must not have read what I wrote. I specifically said not to pay him 40M. I also don't believe the Bulls offered him 40M. This seems like speculation.

"A source said the Bulls recently offered DeRozan’s representative a two-year deal at a high annual salary, perhaps as much as $40 million per season"

What you said is you doubt it will take 40M and shouldn't go above 30M. Well, we've already got a highly credible report saying that's what we offered. KC Johnson reported it as sourced from the Bulls organization. What credible reason do you have to think it will be less?

Thematically, I agree with you in that I wouldn't bid against myself on DeMar to open up negotiations. I'd probably have started at 2@27M per year, and see who is going to outbid that out there, but I'd say that option is now off the table based on this report.

Assuming that DDR is available at the reported cost, are you keeping him or letting him go?

[Chi town]

Pat Williams can help us all by getting a team to sign him to an offer sheet that makes it impossible to resign DDR.

If he signs 4/80 there is no way we can resign DDR.

[Chi town]

You must not have read what I wrote. I specifically said not to pay him 40M. I also don't believe the Bulls offered him 40M. This seems like speculation.

"A source said the Bulls recently offered DeRozan’s representative a two-year deal at a high annual salary, perhaps as much as $40 million per season"

My apologies, I also wouldn't pay DeMar 40M, but I'd also say that you are underplaying the credibility of the report.

KC Johnson reported it as sourced from the front office. KC is pretty conservative with the stuff like this that he reports, and he's got the best sources within the org historically of the local beat guys. I'm not saying "book it", but I'd say that report is highly credible and thus also highly unlikely the deal is going to be for meaningfully less.

That said, thematically, I agree with you in that I wouldn't bid against myself on DeMar to open up negotiations. I'd probably start at 2@27M per year, and see who is going to outbid that out there, but I'd say that option is now off the table based on this report.

AK bid against himself the first time he paid DDR. Just did the same with Vuc.

Dude is absolute clown show of a GM.