2012 Season Thread

TSE · Post #101 » by **TSE** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:29 pm

Yeah it's a weird explanation since part of his justification for his strategy is that he has a shot at Cabrera coming to the plate to win it IF either Dirks or AJ get a hit. Well if he doesn't do the bunt strategy, he still has that option available. It's slightly more complicated because now we have 3 possible players to get a hit, but we also must avoid a DP with one extra guy that could potentially do that. A batter is more likely though to get a hit than to hit into a DP, so the possibility of Cabrera making an appearance at the plate is actually higher if we choose not to bunt.

The tradeoff is that bunting gives greater chance to tie and less chance to take the lead, so to use a diminished probability of Cabrera making it to the plate as a justification to choose the strategy that lowers that chance is just completely illogical as a reasoning process.

This is EXACTLY where and how Leyland fails every time. He doens't understand the logic and the relationship between statistical probabilities and what goes into determining those odds and relevant potential payouts. He is disjointed in that he doesn't know how to analyze these decisions from an optimal game theory perspective, and he also doesn't understand the math and the numbers and what they look like and how to determine what they are in addition to picking the process to go through them. This results in inefficiencies, and I estimate that we lose approximately 5 games a season due to bad math skills. If you routinely invest in options that have a high price for a little reward and you don't know how to maximize leverage of your bets then you just can't dominate in baseball. It's not a game that is easy to master if you lower your odds by significant percentages unnecessarily. There are lots of variables and intertwined events that create an exponential inefficiency if you don't carefully think about what you are doing and what it all means.

Post #102 » by **ajaX82** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:08 pm

Advanced stats would tell you that bunting the man to second should not have been used. Very poor choice

TSE · Post #103 » by **TSE** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:20 pm

Well the fact of the matter is that it was impossible to win that game without scoring at least 2 more runs one way or another. So at the end of the day if you don't have your best plan to get 2 or more somehow some way, then you don't have a good plan. It's a lot to ask for to only get 1 and then to pitch through another half, and then score an additional 1, and then hold for another round of pitching after that. That's what Leyland was playing for. He somehow thought the combination of all of those events panning out was more probable than going for the 2 runs in that one inning, which of course would call for a strategy to NOT BUNT. Good job Ajax.

And then of course the question of the relationship between stealing 2nd and the risk of getting thrown out versus the high chance to get to second with the high chance of an out from a bunt, and if you are still committed to securing the one run, then the option to steal is better than to bunt as well, so really there were 3 choices here, to bunt, to hit, or to attempt a steal and then decide, and the bunting option was the worst of those 3 options overall.

If you are consistent and you like the risk/reward gamble of the bunt option, then it's surprising you also don't like the stealing option, and you would think you would prefer to steal and then bunt to third if you are evaluating the tradeoffs similarly in conjunction with having higher priority to secure one run first. With a batter in the box you are limited to whatever he is going to do on his own, but if bunting is attractive beyond letting the hitter swing away, then it's hard to see how you would not conclude the same for a stolen base attempt. Hmm, I thought Jim wanted to replace swinging the bat with alternative ways to advance a base, why take 1 of those but not both I wonder. Oh so now the hitter is too good to attempt the steal, just not good enough of a hitter to not bunt? I'm not shocked so much as skeptical of how Jim truly rationalizes his choices and I don't think he takes a logical approach.

kellmellus50 · Post #104 » by **kellmellus50** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:49 pm

TSE you have my vote to be the next coach of the Tigers.

TSE · Post #105 » by **TSE** » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:40 am

Thanks, now I just need thousands more votes and a voting process to be installed to determine who gets that job lol! But for real yeah I could squeeze out 5-10 extra wins a year with the same players, but if I'm GM and can pick the players too, then that's when it would be impractical to think another team could beat us with any statistical relevance. It would be game over once I locked down the efficient players that I target, teach them how to play baseball under my style, and ultimately set everything up for perpetual domination.

TSE · Post #106 » by **TSE** » Thu Sep 13, 2012 3:31 pm

Well we are back to an even coin flip situation. We are one game back but we have an easier schedule for the remainder of the year so that will bode well for our chances down the stretch. It just occurred to me that I haven't looked up the new tiebreak procedures for different scenarios. It may not happen this year but I was wondering what would happen if teams tied for the division and also for wildcard etc. So if you haven't seen this page yet take a quick look. Any questions? No ok, play ball!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_Leag ... r_wildcard

I can't wait for the Wild Card Showdown! Hey wait, if it's a showdown, shouldn't they scrap the game and just flip baseball cards to determine the winner?

Manocad · Post #107 » by **Manocad** » Sat Sep 15, 2012 6:27 pm

kellmellus50 wrote:TSE you have my vote to be the next coach of the Tigers.

It's not an elected position, thankfully.

TSE · Post #108 » by **TSE** » Sat Sep 15, 2012 6:42 pm

Manocad wrote:
kellmellus50 wrote:TSE you have my vote to be the next coach of the Tigers.

It's not an elected position, thankfully.

Well one day maybe somehow I will be in charge, or maybe I will be at the head of a political position and you could be one of my constituents. You might not have a choice in the matter and have to take what I give you. hehe

But despite any negative preconceptions you have, I assure you that you will be very happy in the end with the positive changes that I bring to your life, and you won't even be required or obligated to say thank you. I will be plenty happy knowing that I did good things for you whether you appreciate them or not.

TSE · Post #109 » by **TSE** » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:28 pm

Dang that was a pretty embarrassing play by Kelly, the ball hit him right in the hand for an immediate bounce out, and then he tumbles into the wall and his hat pops off and he does a backwards somersault. We need to get out of this inning safely as the White Sox did win today. And I can't believe Don Kelly is still on this team. He is an abysmal hitter and now he's just killing us on defense too.

EDIT: Oops game over, thanks Don Kelly for blowing it, and double thanks to Leyland for letting him play in this game or any game, and triple thanks to DD for allowing Leyland to allow him to play, and granddaddy quadruple thanks to Illitch for allowing DD to let all of this happen. What a bunch of clowns.

GARBAGE DAY CAME ONE DAY EARLY!

TSE · Post #110 » by **TSE** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:58 pm

Well we had a nice pair of wins in the last two games, but we gave up 3 key runs in the 6th inning today due to some errors. One run came in because of a bad relay from the outfield, and now 2 more just came in as Austin Jackson misplayed a line drive knuckle shot that went over his head and to the back wall.

The game also ended with Rod Allen explaining how we had an offer for Gio Gonzalez on the table for Smyly and Turner, but we turned it down only to then give up Turner to get Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante. Yikes. Smyly also walked a run in today when he came into the 9th with the bases loaded.

Manocad · Post #111 » by **Manocad** » Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:21 pm

TSE wrote:
Manocad wrote:
kellmellus50 wrote:TSE you have my vote to be the next coach of the Tigers.

It's not an elected position, thankfully.

Well one day maybe somehow I will be in charge, or maybe I will be at the head of a political position and you could be one of my constituents. You might not have a choice in the matter and have to take what I give you. hehe

But despite any negative preconceptions you have, I assure you that you will be very happy in the end with the positive changes that I bring to your life, and you won't even be required or obligated to say thank you. I will be plenty happy knowing that I did good things for you whether you appreciate them or not.

Quite the delusions of grandeur you've got going there. There's an old saying that goes "Those who talk the most s**t are the ones who usually accomplish the least." You're providing a shining example.

Sucks to have dropped a couple straight to the Twins, at home no less, but 1 game back with 10 to go leaves the Tigers still very much in it.

TSE · Post #112 » by **TSE** » Mon Sep 24, 2012 5:17 pm

There's a reason why it's a saying and not a rule or law, because it does not hold true 100% of the time. But in general you are right and I agree with you that is usually the case. I have a pet peeve for those who talk a big game and don't back it up so I'm right there with you in being the first to be skeptical when somebody claims they are the best or amongst the best at anything.

Chicago still has some games left against Tampa Bay so that bodes really well for our chances to overtake them.

Lionlifer · Post #113 » by **Lionlifer** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:30 pm

Sorry to draw attention away from the insanity going on in this thread, but....

THE TIGERS ARE IN A TIE FOR FIRST PLACE!!!!!!!!

:rockon:

Lionlifer · Post #114 » by **Lionlifer** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 3:47 pm

And now we are a game UP!

Great slide by Dirks too, that won us the game, good to see some old fashoned baseball. It was a thing of beauty.

Manocad · Post #115 » by **Manocad** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 9:50 pm

I got to watch last night's game from Suite 150 at Comerica, complete with a full buffet and Crown Royal. It was a choice evening.

Lionlifer · Post #116 » by **Lionlifer** » Fri Sep 28, 2012 2:40 pm

Manocad wrote:I got to watch last night's game from Suite 150 at Comerica, complete with a full buffet and Crown Royal. It was a choice evening.

That was a historic game you got to see, Fister was crazy good with 9 K's in a row, although he struggled a bit late. And as a plus, you got to see a walkoff hit.

Good choice of beverage too.

TSE · Post #117 » by **TSE** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 9:16 pm

Wow big shot by Fielder. He hit that ball in a tough spot and angle that can't be a home run unless you really wallop it good and he sure did. I like how it was a bounce shot for extra dramatic flair, it was much better than if it was 10 feet deeper, much more fun and a basis for symbolic meaning. And then he was so electrifying in juicing up the whole team, that was pretty awesome.

BOING is the sound of death to the Sox.

joseph mamah · Post #118 » by **joseph mamah** » Mon Oct 1, 2012 6:19 am

Post #119 » by **ajaX82** » Mon Oct 1, 2012 11:58 pm

Time to wrap this bad boy up. I'm ready for some postseason baseball!

Post #120 » by **ajaX82** » Tue Oct 2, 2012 3:08 am

Central champs!