2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft

[Ranma]

I've mentioned this before and typed at length about this exercise in the Draft/International Signing thread, so I'm actually hoping the Dodgers apply the strategy of drafting best player available with every pick soon in one of the upcoming drafts. Given our anticipated participation in free agency during the winter of 2018, the Dodgers are anticipated to lose its 2019 1st-round pick, anyway, so sacrificing another 1st-round pick in either 2018 or 2020 (along with a compensatory or 2nd-round pick in 2019) would be a small price to pay to go buck wild in the draft without any budgetary restrictions. Not to mention signing an outside free agent (or few) to boot.

It would have been at least 1 year too early to apply such a strategy for this just concluded draft and, as it turned out, not worth the effort given how all our prime targets were already off the draft board by the time we had a chance to even make a pick. However, based on the early look at the 2017 draft class and a glimpse of 2018, I'm advocating that we blow past our draft budget for the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft.

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[Quake Griffin]

Ranma.


What was your problem with Hunter Renfroe in the 2013 draft?
He should be up by now?

Seems like he's turned into a decent prospect.

[Ranma]

Ranma.


What was your problem with Hunter Renfroe in the 2013 draft?
He should be up by now?

Seems like he's turned into a decent prospect.

I'm actually glad you brought this up, Quake, since I looked at his current prospect profile a few days ago and had, not necessarily a change of heart, but reconsidered my feelings on his draft selection over J.P. Crawford. First, let me preface by saying that my following of the MLB draft waivers in intensity given that the NHL and NBA drafts are also in the same month. I've only recently started getting into the NFL draft as well. Having said that, I did buy the hard-copy Baseball America draft issue that year but my focus was more on the NHL draft at the time.

My favorite prospects in that class were Mark Appel and Kris Bryant, who actually went 1-2 atop the draft board. I also targeted Hunter Harvey and maybe Clint Frazier, Phil Bickford, and Trey Ball. I'm not sure about the latter 3 because I forgot what position Frazier was listed at the time, Bickford may have had control and injury issues, and Ball was particularly raw. Also, I was unmoved by the Dodgers' selection of Chris Anderson. In any case, J.P. Crawford was on the periphery of my radar but he was not someone I identified as a sure thing or anything, so it's not like I was in on him from the beginning either. At the same time, I was more aware of or Crawford did stand out more so than Hunter Renfroe did during my review of the draft profiles in that issue.

You're right, Renfroe looks like he has the physical tools and graded skill set to be a good prospect. I was also off on Renfroe because I mistook him as another SS prospect recently, so I admit to be definitely a bit misinformed on him. So what I've come to realize (and thanks again for giving me this opportunity to clarify) is that I don't dislike Renfroe as a prospect in and of himself. I'm just critical of Gasparino's selection of him just before Crawford in an after-the-fact and even admittedly cheap fashion. Crawford is still the 3rd best prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline while Renfroe moved up a bit to 84th overall.

I'm more critical of the disparity in the value in hindsight so soon after the 2013 draft, but I can see now how unfair that is. My skepticism really started with Gasparino's drafting of Kyle Funkhouser in the 1st round and Philip Pfeifer in the 3rd round in 2015, so my view of his pick of Renfroe over Crawford was colored with an eye towards criticism, which likely had me view Renfroe initially with skepticism. The kid certainly has tools but his lack of progress does seem to be of concern for a drafted college player, but again, that may be unfair to compare his development to the fast-rising Crawford even if he was drafted out of high school.

As I said before, I actually like quite a lot of the prospects that Gasparino has drafted in 2016. I'm concerned that he may be too conservative with our 1st-round selections by not making the most out of opportunities to take risks on possible homerun picks, hence my criticism of bypassing Crawford in favor of Renfroe. The funny thing is that the Funkhouser selection could be argued as a value pick, but he was an unconvincing proposition IMO as a pick I truly hated along with Pfeifer, so my negativity from those picks carried over to my perception of the Renfroe selection.

I hope that clarifies the matter to your satisfaction as it certainly helped me see things more clearly. I still think his selection over Crawford was a mistake in hindsight even if it is unfair, but what can I say? First impressions are hard to overcome. He certainly still holds promise and is a good prospect among the top 100 in baseball. It just concerns me that Gasparino seemed to have chosen polish over upside that has resulted in the former being behind the latter in terms of progress.

Also, here is the 2016 draft class signing and bonus tracker for reference:

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[Ranma]

We saved $403,000 in signing White which makes up for almost all of the overage we gave May so there's money to play with in hopefully signing both Alexy and Ashcraft as well. Speaking of overage, the Padres signed Quantrill to an overslot deal but saved over $1 million on the other 2 1st-rounders, who I felt were questionable picks at the time, so it makes more sense now even if I don't like that particular approach.

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[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Why did we sign him for over slot value?

Whatever. Doesn't look like it's going to hurt anything. I like Errol Robinson in the 6th round.
I think that kid has a future in the majors.

[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Good. Looks like he'll be solid defensively and throwing runners out.
Hopefully we can develop him to tap into some power and at least be a 10-15 HR/ gap hitter.

Sheffield next and we should be good to go.

[Neddy]

Good. Looks like he'll be solid defensively and throwing runners out.
Hopefully we can develop him to tap into some power and at least be a 10-15 HR/ gap hitter.

Sheffield next and we should be good to go.

after learning up on the kid more, I think Will Smith is more like a poor man's version of Jason Kendall. he will probaly get us 15 SBs than hit 15 HRs in a season. maybe he will surprise me and gecome a 20-20 type of a players, but I doubt it. it's amazing that we drafted this kid in the first round while he was hitting .220 as a freshman and .240 as a sophomore. if he loses his speed, I see a young AJ Ellis in the making.

I'm pissed that there is no dodger affiliate short season A ball team nearby.

[Quake Griffin]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-2/

1:15
D: How do you like Gavin lux?
1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Quite a bit. Has always been a good bet to stay at shortstop and that alone had him on our top 50 radar last winter. He came out this spring and hit, too. Think he’s a big leaguer.

[Quake Griffin]

Jonathan Mayo ?@JonathanMayo · 57m57 minutes ago

.@Dodgers sign 4th-rder DJ Peters for $247,500 (Pick 131 value=$442,400). JUCO OF w/power and strong arm @MLBDraft

[Ranma]

Assuming we don't spend a big chunk of the money saved from the White, Smith, and now Peters signings on securing Jordan Sheffield's signature, I'm confident that we'll also secure both Alexy and Ashcraft to contracts as well.

[Ranma]

Seems quite odd that we would pay significantly much more by going over slot for two prospects taken after another set of two other prospects and paying them relatively almost nothing. I guess I have to defer to the scouts and assume Kremer and Morales have more upside but I personally like both Gonsolin and Lachance more. I understand taking gambles on hard-sign propositions beyond the 10th round and going with the safer choices with picks in rounds 9 and 10 so that we won't lose any pool money by not being able to sign either Kremer or Morales, but this perplexes me at the moment without knowing more about those two particular prospects.

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[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

There was talk that signing Graham Ashcraft would be a higher priority over getting a commitment from A.J. Alexy, which I thought was odd given that Alexy was drafted ahead of Ashcraft. Plus, Alexy just has the better repertoire of pitches even if he doesn't throw the same heat as Aschcraft. I'm relieved that we got Alexy into the fold as he was one of my most preferred targets among our key signing targets.

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[Quake Griffin]

Are we testing the waters with signingw guys over slot value?

Aka is this a precursor to what you were discussing earlier in which we'd give HS players in later rounds a higher slot bonus and blow through our pool and lose a pick.

I gave it a plus 1.
It truly might just be genius enough to work if our scouting is great.

Our franchise has a long history of seeing talents early. See Chase Utley in 1996. See Paul Goldschmidt in 2005 (?). We probably wouldnt even be in this 28 year drought if we were able to entice those 2 at over slot value.

[Ranma]

I'd like to think so but I don't think our signings for this class affects what happens in future classes only because money saved from 1 year's class doesn't roll over to the next year. Under Guggenheim ownership, it was a forgone conclusion that we would spend up to the limits of our allotted draft budget without losing draft picks this year.

You're right about us identifying talent early in previous drafts but have been unable to sign in previous cases. In addition to Utley and Goldschmidt, our scouts also drafted Kevin Gausman and David Price among others. Even with the departure of Logan White, I think we still have a lot of our old scouts in the system just under Billy Gasparino's direction.

With MLB trying to clamp down on limiting our spending advantage, we have to take advantage of my proposed strategy either in 2017 or 2018, especially with our expected participation in free agency. It was reported that at least one team was considering blowing out its draft budget for this draft class. If one team is willing to do it, the Dodgers are surely considering it themselves especially in stronger draft classes. I don't know much about the 2018 draft class but 2017 looks like as good a time as any to implement the proposal.

[Quake Griffin]

Was watching ESPN highlights before I knockout.

Just saw Iwakuma give up a HR in Detroit and it hit me how Lux wouldnt be in the fold if we finalized our agreement with Iwakuma.

Hindsight, I'm happy it turned out that way.

[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Sheff is signed for $1.85 Ms.

I think that's slightly over slot value.
Awesome. I expect him here in 2017.