2015 dodgers roster and stat projection thread.

[Quake Griffin]

is that why SVS's numbers look so terrible?

I see him as .265/.340 or higher kinda guy.

[Neddy]

is that why SVS's numbers look so terrible?

I see him as .265/.340 or higher kinda guy.

of course he is.

the Steamer projection is always posting the very bottom, the minimum expectation numbers. consider those projection numbers to be the worst possible numbers if the players stayed healthy and played the vast majority of the games at their position.

the reality is, SVS is closer to 275/345/490 and 30+ HRs guy with 600 plate appearance.

[Neddy]

i have an updated projection of our rotation, aided by projections of Fangraphs', Oliver's, Steamers, and other sites. keep in mind, these sites tend to under project all the time, so this is more like what could be the averages if they do perform to their average potential and under, rather than going for the hopeful, optimistic stat lines.


that is ERA--WHIP---FIP---W/L --- Innings

L Kershaw 2.50 1.03 2.63 15-8 201
R Greinke 3.07 1.12 3.16 17-8 202
L Ryu 3.38 1.17 3.36 12-10 182
B MacCarthy 3.51 1.16 3.31 11-9 163
L Anderson 3.72 1.30 3.59 6-6 96

Mike Bolsinger, Juan Nicasio, and Joe Weiland are destined to see some time as starters, but hopefully for short stretches at a time.

[Quake Griffin]

if those are under-projections, we're going to have a really good season.
cuz they're fine on their own.

I hope Anderson stays healthy.
I'm less worried about Mack staying healthy.

[Neddy]

if those are under-projections, we're going to have a really good season.
cuz they're fine on their own.

I hope Anderson stays healthy.
I'm less worried about Mack staying healthy.

but I like our chances even if Brett Anderson can't start more than say, 15 starts with injury. the kid I am high on among the trio of insurance plans Zaini and Freidman took out is the one from Kemp trade.

Joe Wieland had 5 starts in 2012, got hurt and missed the entire 2013, then came back in 2014 to make 2 starts and 2 relief appearances. among these, total of 7 starts in 3 seasons. if you negate his major league debut and tribute that game to jitters, and the first game back from his more than a year long injury game also, in his other 5 starts, he has gone 6.0 innings twice, 5.0 once and 5.2 once and 5.1 once. that is 28 innings in 5 starts, while giving up 23 hits, 10 BBs, 11ERs, and 28SOs. those numbers break down into 3.53 ERA, 1.17WHIP, and 9.0SO/9inn. those numbers are better than Dan Haren last season, and this kid is only 24 even after losing more than a year with injury. so in an essence i feel like we are already walking into the new year with 6 legitimate starters on the roster with two borderliners. I am not high on Mike Bolsinger as a starter. he should be starting the season at AAA. Nicasio is our swingman out of bullpen and should not be used as a starter when we have better options. but Joe, I like Joe. I like him a lot.

[Neddy]

not counting probable starters, both major league roster and AAA, and not counting injured Withrow, we have this list who will compete for 7 bullpen spots.

a few spots are already locked.

1. KenleyJansen S-R 6'5" 265 Sep 30, 1987
2. J.P. Howell L-L 6'0" 185 Apr 25, 1983
3. Joel Peralta R-R 5'11" 210 Mar 23, 1976
4. Chris HatcherS-R 6'1" 205 Jan 12, 1985

now that leaves 3 spots with these many guys left. I think if Brandon League cannot be traded, he may take up one spot rather than getting bought out like Wilson.

5. Brandon League R-R 6'2" 215 Mar 16, 1983

I also think only one out of Bolsinger/Nicasio/Wieland trio, aka starter/long relief guy will make the opening day roster.

6. Mike BolsingerR-R 6'2" 210 Jan 29, 1988/Juan Nicasio R-R 6'3" 210 Aug 31, 1986/Joe Wieland R-R 6'3" 210 Jan 21, 1990

now then it only leaves one more spot with


Pedro Baez R-R 6'2" 230 Mar 11, 1988
Daniel Coulombe L-L 5'10" 185 Oct 26, 1989
Carlos Frias R-R 6'4" 170 Nov 13, 1989
Yimi Garcia R-R 6'1" 175 Aug 18, 1990
Adam Liberatore L-L 6'3" 225 May 12, 1987
Chris Reed L-L 6'4" 195 May 20, 1990
Paco Rodriguez L-L 6'3" 220 Apr 16, 1991


My guess is that the FO is going to want one more lefty out of pen, and the job will go to whichever the lefty to win out in spring training. I think there is a good chance the job could go to the older, more desperate Liberatore as this could be his last shot.

so I am tentatively projecting our bullpen to be

CP Jensen
SU Howell -L
SU Peralta
SU Hatcher
MR League
LR Wieland
SR Liberatore - L (SR--spot relief, specializing only against a single or consecutive lefties) Liberatore has been lights out in last season against both lefties and righties, but for the last 3 seasons he has dominated against LHB.

again, in order of ERA -- WHIP-- FIP -- Saves

CP Jensen -- 2.04 0.96 2.38 28 SVs
SU Howell -- 3.36 1.27 3.56 6 SVs
SU Peralta -- 2.93 1.12 3.51 1 SV
SU Hatcher -- 3.39 1.20 3.46
MR League -- 3.83 1.34 3.77
LR Wieland -- 4.14 1.28 4.14
SR Liberatore - 3.32 1.24 3.65


there you have it, the bullpen projection. keep in mind, this is very, very tentative and subject to change at any given future move.

[Neddy]

so, the complete pitching projection for 2015 as of today, Jan 2nd 2015, stands as this...

SP L Kershaw 2.50 1.03 2.63 15-8 201
SP R Greinke 3.07 1.12 3.16 17-8 202
SP L Ryu ----3.38 1.17 3.36 12-10 182
SP R MacCarthy 3.51 1.16 3.31 11-9 163
SP L Anderson 3.72 1.30 3.59 6-6 96

CP R Jensen -- 2.04 0.96 2.38 28 SVs
SU L Howell -- 3.36 1.27 3.56 6 SVs
SU R Peralta -- 2.93 1.12 3.51 1 SV
SU R Hatcher -- 3.39 1.20 3.46
MR R League -- 3.83 1.34 3.77
LR R Wieland -- 4.14 1.28 4.14
SR L Liberatore - 3.32 1.24 3.65

again, most projections including Steamer which Fangraphs uses as its standard projection, always under-estimate.
secondly, even as an underestimated projection, we are looking pretty damn good in my eyes.