Prospects and trade discussion

[Quake Griffin]

Gavin Lux's numbers this year in High A ball are pretty good.
8 homers in 203 ABs. .320/.403 15 doubles. 3 triples.

Still having an errors problem at SS which last year seemed to be on throwing the ball from Short to 1st.

I know others hate the pick on this forum and I've seen heads tweet that they don't like it but I am intrigued by this kid and his development, so I try to keep up with how he is doing. This is about GAVIN, not any other of Gasparino's picks and protecting Gasparino. I am intrigued by Gavin only in this particular regard.

It's funny that you mention Lux as I was actually thinking about him with respect to our draft and Gasparino earlier this morning. I'm trying to respond to your post with regards to my initial reaction to the draft, but have been jumping around between drafts for other sports and MLB's in an effort to collect and post information.

With regards to Gavin Lux, specifically, I liked him as a prospect as a developing project in a vacuum. I don't think he's going to be worthwhile as a SS so 2B is where I project him to eventually be now. I truly hope he does put things together and it's encouraging that he's showing signs of sustained progress but I'll be impressed if he can carry that over to the higher levels with consistency given the slow and stunted start to his development.

I dunno. I don't even think he can make it in dodger blue as a 2B.

There's much worse stories out there than being a 20 year old who is raking at high A ball who is flashing some positives up the middle....especially when the knock was that you couldn't do either.

Meanwhile Cardinal fans are singing the "Oh Delvin Perez is young" song given how bad things are going at this point.

Lux is looking like the mature, quiet, all business prospect that has the poise to prove his doubters wrong....ya know, the things you want out of a kid when you see he has family that's been drafted to the big leagues.

Whether you believe in him or not, his trend is more of proving his doubters wrong than proving them right since he has been here.

[Neddy]

It's funny that you mention Lux as I was actually thinking about him with respect to our draft and Gasparino earlier this morning. I'm trying to respond to your post with regards to my initial reaction to the draft, but have been jumping around between drafts for other sports and MLB's in an effort to collect and post information.

With regards to Gavin Lux, specifically, I liked him as a prospect as a developing project in a vacuum. I don't think he's going to be worthwhile as a SS so 2B is where I project him to eventually be now. I truly hope he does put things together and it's encouraging that he's showing signs of sustained progress but I'll be impressed if he can carry that over to the higher levels with consistency given the slow and stunted start to his development.

I dunno. I don't even think he can make it in dodger blue as a 2B.

There's much worse stories out there than being a 20 year old who is raking at high A ball who is flashing some positives up the middle....especially when the knock was that you couldn't do either.

Meanwhile Cardinal fans are singing the "Oh Delvin Perez is young" song given how bad things are going at this point.

Lux is looking like the mature, quiet, all business prospect that has the poise to prove his doubters wrong....ya know, the things you want out of a kid when you see he has family that's been drafted to the big leagues.

Whether you believe in him or not, his trend is more of proving his doubters wrong than proving them right since he has been here.

we'll see. Billy Ashley was crushing 1.1290 OPS in AAA back in 1994 but where did he end up?

blake dewitt was hitting .840 in the rookie ball, and continued to hit close to .300 BA in the minors thereafter, but where is he now?

Scott Van Slyke hit .903 OPS and 23 HRs in the minors back in 2009 between high A to AAA. he is currently with Doosan Bears of KBO.

conversely, George Springer had recorded .179 BA in his rookie season, then went on to bat .219 in his AA.

the point is, high A or any other low level minor league stats are anything but an indicator of future success. in fact, at high A level, a lot of AAAA players shine. if Lux can keep up his production in AA, I promise to watch his scout tapes for at least 100 Hrs and give you my analysis. but the last time i spent any time watching his tape, I was greatly disappointed with his lack of fundamentals in both offense and especially in defense.

you can tell me all you want about his numbers, as I too am a numbers guy. but I am also an old school eye test scout type of a guy. Lux has yet to pass my eye test. I will leave it at that.

[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Pretty much what I said this winter when I was pushed on what pitchers would be available. Of course this was in the context of moving on from a declining pitcher but....nonetheless.


First name I threw out was dGrom. I said the Mets are acting tough about keeping this team together but the losses will pile up and they will sell.


Haven't looked at this problem in a while but I think deGrom is cost controlled until 2021?
I'm in if we are trying to win this year.

[Ranma]

Pretty much what I said this winter when I was pushed on what pitchers would be available. Of course this was in the context of moving on from a declining pitcher but....nonetheless.


First name I threw out was dGrom. I said the Mets are acting tough about keeping this team together but the losses will pile up and they will sell.


Haven't looked at this problem in a while but I think deGrom is cost controlled until 2021?
I'm in if we are trying to win this year.

I've been meaning to say this for a while now but keep getting distracted with all the other stuff going on with our other teams, but I have to give you props and acknowledge that I was wrong in our previous debate about Max Scherzer. If I recall correctly, you were all in for going after him either through trade or as a free agent while I was against the notion of giving up our prospects at the time (Julio Urias, Jose De leon) and spending the large amount of cash for a pitcher I had injury concerns about due to his delivery. I also figured we were better off waiting for the likes of Jose Fernandez and eventually Shohei Ohtani.

Obviously, you were proven totally correct as Scherzer has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball over the past few seasons and he probably would have helped us to a World Series ring or two by now by having him front a starting rotation with Clayton Kershaw. It turned out that we didn't really need to trade our prospects to acquire him, though he would have been worth it...but only in hindsight.

The fact of the matter is that Scherzer has lived up to his free-agent contract. I still stand by my outlook of waiting for younger and promising arms as being a sound strategy at the time, but I can't debate the scoreboard since it has proven that we would have been better off with Scherzer instead of waiting for Fernandez or Ohtani. Who knew that Fernandez's career would end in tragedy and that Ohtani would spurn the team that initially secured his agreement to come over to the US out of high school in Japan?

In any case, you were right and I was wrong, but I want to focus on Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom now. We definitely need that 2nd ace to pair with Kershaw, especially in his reduced state. The Mets may afford us that opportunity right now and I'm willing to give up the farm for one of those two. Personally, I'm in favor of doing so for Syndergaard given his youth and extra year of control.

However, deGrom is having a Cy-Young-worthy season while Syndergaard is on his way back from injury. deGrom is currently 30 years-old and has 2 more years of arbitration after this season while making $7.4 million for 2018. Syndergaard is 25 years of age and has 3 more years of arbitration and currently making $2.975 million for 2018. Both of these pitchers are much more attractive than Chris Archer, the only other notable consideration to pursue in trade, especially after missing out on Gerrit Cole, whom I'd advocated for previously.

I'd be okay with acquiring either deGrom or Syndergaard, to be honest, but it would depend on whom we would have to give up, respectively. My preference for Syndergaard means I'd be willing to pay more in assets for him, but if we can acquire deGrom without giving up a premium prospect like Walker Buehler, that has to be taken into consideration. Buehler is technically no longer considered a prospect per MLB Pipeline.

I'd easily give up our currently rated top-5 prospects for Syndergaard: Alex Verdugo, Keibert Ruiz, Mitchell White, Yusniel Diaz and Dennis Santana, although, I'd prefer to keep White, if at all possible. Still, that may not be enough to convince the Mets to pull the trigger and I'd actually be willing to add more to the pot. The key would be to avoid giving up Buehler. If push came to shove, would I surrender Buehler in a package for Syndergaard? I'm leaning toward yes for now but that is subject to change.

In the meantime, I'd steer talks away from Walker especially with Syndergaard not even healthy right now.

[Neddy]

Pretty much what I said this winter when I was pushed on what pitchers would be available. Of course this was in the context of moving on from a declining pitcher but....nonetheless.


First name I threw out was dGrom. I said the Mets are acting tough about keeping this team together but the losses will pile up and they will sell.


Haven't looked at this problem in a while but I think deGrom is cost controlled until 2021?
I'm in if we are trying to win this year.

I've been meaning to say this for a while now but keep getting distracted with all the other stuff going on with our other teams, but I have to give you props and acknowledge that I was wrong in our previous debate about Max Scherzer. If I recall correctly, you were all in for going after him either through trade or as a free agent while I was against the notion of giving up our prospects at the time (Julio Urias, Jose De leon) and spending the large amount of cash for a pitcher I had injury concerns about due to his delivery. I also figured we were better off waiting for the likes of Jose Fernandez and eventually Shohei Ohtani.

Obviously, you were proven totally correct as Scherzer has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball over the past few seasons and he probably would have helped us to a World Series ring or two by now by having him front a starting rotation with Clayton Kershaw. It turned out that we didn't really need to trade our prospects to acquire him, though he would have been worth it...but only in hindsight.

The fact of the matter is that Scherzer has lived up to his free-agent contract. I still stand by my outlook of waiting for younger and promising arms as being a sound strategy at the time, but I can't debate the scoreboard since it has proven that we would have been better off with Scherzer instead of waiting for Fernandez or Ohtani. Who knew that Fernandez's career would end in tragedy and that Ohtani would spurn the team that initially secured his agreement to come over to the US out of high school in Japan?

In any case, you were right and I was wrong, but I want to focus on Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom now. We definitely need that 2nd ace to pair with Kershaw, especially in his reduced state. The Mets may afford us that opportunity right now and I'm willing to give up the farm for one of those two. Personally, I'm in favor of doing so for Syndergaard given his youth and extra year of control.

However, deGrom is having a Cy-Young-worthy season while Syndergaard is on his way back from injury. deGrom is currently 30 years-old and has 2 more years of arbitration after this season while making $7.4 million for 2018. Syndergaard is 25 years of age and has 3 more years of arbitration and currently making $2.975 million for 2018. Both of these pitchers are much more attractive than Chris Archer, the only other notable consideration to pursue in trade, especially after missing out on Gerrit Cole, whom I'd advocated for previously.

I'd be okay with acquiring either deGrom or Syndergaard, to be honest, but it would depend on whom we would have to give up, respectively. My preference for Syndergaard means I'd be willing to pay more in assets for him, but it we can acquire deGrom without giving up a premium prospect like Walker Buehler, that has to be taken into consideration. Buehler is technically no longer considered a prospect per MLB Pipeline.

I'd easily give up our currently rated top-5 prospects for Syndergaard: Alex Verdugo, Keibert Ruiz, Mitchell White, Yusniel Diaz and Dennis Santana, although, I'd prefer to keep White, if at all possible. Still, that may not be enough to convince the Mets to pull the trigger and I'd actually be willing to add more to the pot. The key would be to avoid giving up Buehler. If push came to shove, would I surrender Buehler in a package for Syndergaard? I'm leaning toward yes for now but that is subject to change.

In the meantime, I'd steer talks away from Walker especially with Syndergaard not even healthy right now.

Thor is CP3 of baseball. when was his last full season? he is always hurt. I am not against this deal as Noah is still very young for a pitcher, but the deal has to be right. we are not ran by Dave Dombrowski. we can't overpay and justify it later.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

Thor is CP3 of baseball. when was his last full season? he is always hurt. I am not against this deal as Noah is still very young for a pitcher, but the deal has to be right. we are not ran by Dave Dombrowski. we can't overpay and justify it later.

That's an interesting point about Syndergaard's inability to sustain full health over a season, Neddy. I generally agree philosophically with regards to overpaying in prospects for premium talent with question marks, but I happen to personally think our prospects are not that great collectively as a group despite moving up in the rankings. This is in large part due to Walker Buehler's graduation.

You guys know I've always viewed Alex Verdugo as eventual trade bait, so I would love nothing more than for him to be the centerpiece in a deal for Thor or possibly even a rental of Machado. Key word "possibly". I still have high hopes for Jeren Kendall given is all-around tools, but his continued stalled progress in figuring out how to bat is troubling, as Quake has pointed out.

My co-worker just informed me that the talk about Machado apparently centered around shipping out Puig, which is no surprise given this front office's prejudice in continuing not to trust him. Still, I haven't come across anything solid with regards to Puig being involved in talks just yet. I haven't even read the Nightengale article I posted in my previous post above.

[Quake Griffin]

I tend to like our prospects but I think a big part of our problem is that we've been good for too long and our picks are late in the 1st round. I tend to think we've done fine at our slots and that in many ways we may have found our Arenado/ Chris Sale/ Pedroia in Walker Buehler. I mean, how many teams have more than one late 1st rounder/ 2nd rounder pan out to be a star for them?

We're in swing for the fence mode each year when if we were in the top 10, the dynamics would change as we'd have a much better opportunity to grab a high upside superstar level talent.


That said, I could see if our front office did what Washington did a few years ago when they dealt "top high ranking prospects" for Adam Eaton because Rizzo just wasn't in love with his prospects at that point in time.

The only person I'm iffy about trading is probably Mitchell White.

A couple more reasons that maybe a trade wouldn't hurt if we don't love our prospects.
We are going to have another crack at the international market as well to replenish what we have underneath, so now is as good a time as any.

and Urias has "graduated" but there is still a chance he comes back and becomes a good pitcher.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

It's a shame as I had high hopes for Mitchell Hansen and was hoping he would be able to turn it around eventually. I actually had him rated higher than Cody Bellinger when both were in the Dodgers' developmental pipeline in the early going.

Dustin Nosler also touches on my concerns with the Dodgers' lackluster performance in the early rounds by zeroing specifically in on the second round.

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[Quake Griffin]

We are going for Manny Machado and Michael Fulmer?

Woah!

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Keibert Ruiz and Dustin May for Manny?

That’s all the O’s want?
We HAVE to do this.


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[wco81]

Just saw on ESPN scrawl that some prospect named Diaz would be among the players the Dodgers would be giving up.

Dodgers are doing okay for power, #5 in MLB for HRs and #7 for OPS.

Would Machado take over at SS with Seager playing 3B or 2B? Or would Machado play another position?

And this would strictly be a rental?

[Kilroy]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/manny-machado-traded-to-the-los-angeles-dodgers/ar-AAAe38P?li=BBnb7Kz

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[Neddy]

not sure how I feel about this. good to add him, but the lux tax is f-ed.

we needed an arm, I felt we could use a top of the rotation right arm for the playoffs, what Darvish couldn't, basically.

now we have to choose when the season is over, between Kershaw and Manny. if this is the case, it is no contest. we sign Manny and move him to second. Turner's knees won't allow him to play anything but corner infields at this point, but he is still near GG type when healthy. Seager is rating much better as a SS than Manny so far in this season of him trying out SS. unless of course if Kershaw doesn't opt out, then it's a moot point.

but at least going into the second half of the season, we will be able to move Taylor back to CF, and keep Max on second.

1 R CF Taylor
2 R SS Manny
3 R LF Kemp
4 L 1B Bellinger
5 R 3B Turner
6 L 2B Max
7 R RF Puig
8 S C Grandal

with

Joc, ****, Utley, Barnes and Toles, what do we do with Logan Forsythe?