2018-2019 Offseason Thread

[Quake Griffin]

I'm ready to start this early.


My big keys:
- Seager will be back.
- Pray Kershaw opts out and DO NOT re-sign him.
- Test the market with Kenley Jansen.
- DO NOT offer Yasmani Grandal the Qualifying Offer. He has every incentive to take the $18 million pay day and bet on himself to get a longer deal to close his career. You missed on the opportunity to get value for him. Let it go.

Trades I'd like to see happen:
- I'd like to see if Anthony Rendon is available from the Nats.

There's more to think about.
Blah.

[wco81]

ESPN was already talking about Kershaw's option.

I missed it but it sounded like he has only a few days on whether to exercise the option?

It's not an easy decision for the team.

Kershaw turns 31 in March and has a player option for $34.57 million for next year and a $35.57 million player option the following year.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/yearly/payroll/

His post-season ERA is almost 2 runs higher than his regular season ERA for his career. But he's still a dominant #1 pitcher, barring injuries. His last 3 seasons have seen about 20% less IPs, due to injuries.

Now would a team offer him a longer deal and more total money than the $70 million left on his current deal if he exercises the player options the next two seasons? It's certainly possible, maybe a deep-pocket team like the Yankees.

Regardless of his failure thus far to replicate his regular season dominance in the post-season, Kershaw should be able to help teams get to the post season for at least the next 3-4 seasons, barring injuries, though he has about 2100 IPs already in his career.


As for Jansen, he's had health issues this year hasn't he?

Still a good year, 38 saves, following two of the best years in his career in 2016 and 2017.

However, I was surprised that his velocity was in the low 90s in this series. I thought he' was mid to high 90s.

He's only 31 and signed through the 2019 season with a player option of $18 million in 2020 and $20 million in 2021.

[Quake Griffin]

ESPN was already talking about Kershaw's option.

I missed it but it sounded like he has only a few days on whether to exercise the option?

It's not an easy decision for the team.

Kershaw turns 31 in March and has a player option for $34.57 million for next year and a $35.57 million player option the following year.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/yearly/payroll/

His post-season ERA is almost 2 runs higher than his regular season ERA for his career. But he's still a dominant #1 pitcher, barring injuries. His last 3 seasons have seen about 20% less IPs, due to injuries.

Now would a team offer him a longer deal and more total money than the $70 million left on his current deal if he exercises the player options the next two seasons? It's certainly possible, maybe a deep-pocket team like the Yankees.

Regardless of his failure thus far to replicate his regular season dominance in the post-season, Kershaw should be able to help teams get to the post season for at least the next 3-4 seasons, barring injuries, though he has about 2100 IPs already in his career.


As for Jansen, he's had health issues this year hasn't he?

Still a good year, 38 saves, following two of the best years in his career in 2016 and 2017.

However, I was surprised that his velocity was in the low 90s in this series. I thought he' was mid to high 90s.

He's only 31 and signed through the 2019 season with a player option of $18 million in 2020 and $20 million in 2021.

No he isn't.

He's just a pretty good pitcher. A mid to low 2s ERA pitcher who has some of that carried by his ball park and 2 other pitcher's parks in his division. He is not why we are good any more. It is not 2013 or 2014. He is a 3-4 fWAR pitcher who will get you 175 innings of decent baseball.

He is the single worst elite player turned playoff choke of my life time in any sport. Any other player with this designation I can think of either has a ring, has less chokes than him, or is having the #NoRing argument really stand in the place of the choking argument. He has all kinds of October chokes btw. Big lead chokes. Small lead chokes. Early in the game "oh brother this is gonna be a long day" chokes. Late game blow up chokes. Chokes against teams he's not that good against. Chokes against teams he dominates typically. DS Chokes. CS chokes. WS chokes. Game 1 chokes. Elimination Game chokes. Even a choke- got saved by more runs- and choked again choke.

I sincerely hope he opts out and goes on his way.
He is not the typical guy who isn't doing well in October. He is the face of the franchise. It's his team....and hes a fraud in October. We can no longer keep that around imo.

[Kilroy]

Hope he opts out... Hope Jansen gets moved to setup man... Let Manny and Grandal walk... Go after Corbin, Ottavino and Harper...

[Quake Griffin]

Hope he opts out... Hope Jansen gets moved to setup man... Let Manny and Grandal walk... Go after Corbin, Ottavino and Harper...

I like Robbie Ray.

You trust him to hold up and be consistent ages 30, 31, 32, 33????

Of course at the right number.

I do think he won’t be October soft.


Eovaldi???


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[Kilroy]

Hope he opts out... Hope Jansen gets moved to setup man... Let Manny and Grandal walk... Go after Corbin, Ottavino and Harper...

I like Robbie Ray.

You trust him to hold up and be consistent ages 30, 31, 32, 33????

Of course at the right number.

I do think he won’t be October soft.


Eovaldi???


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Don't trust Eovaldi's Bionic arm... Sooner or later that ****'s going to fly apart like a bad watch... And I'd bet my house it would happen right after he signed a contract with the Dodgers, how our luck's been running.

That said, I don't think we really should worry too much about our top starters holding up for years... We have beuler and a great farm system... We need guys we can rely on next season and maybe the one after. Two years down the road is too far to worry about.

[Neddy]

I do not share the enthusiasm for our old prospect Nathan.

he is what he is, and there is REASON why he was not a starter for game 1,2, or 3.

say whatever you wanna say about my old ass eyes, but I have been a baseball man all my life, played, ran 20 years ago, a stat eval blog when nobody cared about those things, called dodgermath.com back when mikescioscia'stragicilnness.com and dodgerdugout.com were all linked together with mine.... anywho... if there are 3 things in life i know better than 99% of the people in the world, is 1, my profession of dentistry, 2, understandings of playing a guitar, and 3, scouting baseball.

I do not have much else talent in life.

for the money, and their age, please we are better off keeping Kershaw than signing Eovaldi at 8 digit per year contract. sure, the last couple of years look good in terms of WHIP and all, but this year's 0.5 HR per 9 as a Redsox is an outlier and not the norm.

but who the hell cares what I think.

[Quake Griffin]

I do not share the enthusiasm for our old prospect Nathan.

he is what he is, and there is REASON why he was not a starter for game 1,2, or 3.

say whatever you wanna say about my old ass eyes, but I have been a baseball man all my life, played, ran 20 years ago, a stat eval blog when nobody cared about those things, called dodgermath.com back when mikescioscia'stragicilnness.com and dodgerdugout.com were all linked together with mine.... anywho... if there are 3 things in life i know better than 99% of the people in the world, is 1, my profession of dentistry, 2, understandings of playing a guitar, and 3, scouting baseball.

I do not have much else talent in life.

for the money, and their age, please we are better off keeping Kershaw than signing Eovaldi at 8 digit per year contract. sure, the last couple of years look good in terms of WHIP and all, but this year's 0.5 HR per 9 as a Redsox is an outlier and not the norm.

but who the hell cares what I think.

I care what you think

To me, I’m moving on from Peyton. The decision to go after Eovaldi is only a question of whether or not it’s a good move in its own right. I’m not comparing him to a guy I want to move on from.

But.....

Buster Olney is tweeting that he thinks Peyton is going to opt in and sign an extension of 1-2 years.

This vexes me. Hopefully he will balk at the idea of a 1-2 year extension and want more years.


As I feared about a Stan Kasten type team. We are committed to being his 90s Braves...a team that lost 2 WSs before winning one and lost 2 more.....not a legit dynasty with multiple rings.


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[Quake Griffin]

Clayton’s opt in date extended to today.

Grandal extended the QO....
It’s unreal he could possibly make $18 million for us next year.

Keep in mind, we are the first team ever to have a player (Brett Anderson) accept the QO.

Not a smart use of the QO then. This isn’t now....but boy it would be great is Yas declined it.


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[wco81]

They must be working on an extension to extend the deadline.

[Quake Griffin]

These negotiations reek.

And they reek of the Dodgers having all the leverage and giving an extra year to please and appease Kershaw loyalists because the optics would suck if he just opted in with no extension in place.

It does not sound like he is getting a retirement deal per Rosenthal and Jeff Passan....and that speaks volumes.

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[Quake Griffin]

3 years 93 million.

Sigh.

Smh.


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[Quake Griffin]

Cleveland is not extending Andrew Miller the QO.

[Neddy]

These negotiations reek.

And they reek of the Dodgers having all the leverage and giving an extra year to please and appease Kershaw loyalists because the optics would suck if he just opted in with no extension in place.

It does not sound like he is getting a retirement deal per Rosenthal and Jeff Passan....and that speaks volumes.

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did you even really want Clay Back? I certainly didn't.

but now that he is back at the price tag he was given, AND they also gave the QO to Ryu, WTF?

we get both quality lefties back, sure, that is awesome. I am a fan of both lefties. but.... that signals an obvious trade of Alex Wood, and possibly Stripling.

we are now heading into 2019 with

1. ClaytonKershaw
2. Buehler
3. Ryu
4. Hill
5. Maeda
6. Urias
7. Dennis Santana
8. Dustin May
9. Mitchell White.

and this list is with the assumption that we do trade away Alex Wood and Ross Stripling, also without any FA signees.

I say the chance of Ryu not taking that QO is next to nothing.
we are re-loading, only replacing Machado with Seager again.

IF Walker becomes the second Ace and eventually surpass aging Kershaw, with inevitable rise of Julio, this team is... once again... in good place to come right back the 2019 WS.

[Quake Griffin]

These negotiations reek.

And they reek of the Dodgers having all the leverage and giving an extra year to please and appease Kershaw loyalists because the optics would suck if he just opted in with no extension in place.

It does not sound like he is getting a retirement deal per Rosenthal and Jeff Passan....and that speaks volumes.

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did you even really want Clay Back? I certainly didn't.

but now that he is back at the price tag he was given, AND they also gave the QO to Ryu, WTF?

we get both quality lefties back, sure, that is awesome. I am a fan of both lefties. but.... that signals an obvious trade of Alex Wood, and possibly Stripling.

we are now heading into 2019 with

1. ClaytonKershaw
2. Buehler
3. Ryu
4. Hill
5. Maeda
6. Urias
7. Dennis Santana
8. Dustin May
9. Mitchell White.

and this list is with the assumption that we do trade away Alex Wood and Ross Stripling, also without any FA signees.

I say the chance of Ryu not taking that QO is next to nothing.
we are re-loading, only replacing Machado with Seager again.

IF Walker becomes the second Ace and eventually surpass aging Kershaw, with inevitable rise of Julio, this team is... once again... in good place to come right back the 2019 WS.

I didn’t.

I just dont like the idea of this kind of deal. It looks like they made it to please and appease Kershaw loyalist rather than doing exactly what is best for the team.

I would have told him to pound sand. He would have opted in. Then I would have dealt him and ate part of his money in the deal. I’m certain we had people who feel like that in our FO.

Nevertheless. He’s here and we are chasing our 90s Braves championship...our ONE ring in many trips to the playoffs...the one where we drag Kershaw to his ring and we are all supposed to cry a tear and be happy for him and his family instead of building a juggernaut dynasty that puts up multiple rings and rivals SF’s 3 in 5 run.

Yeah....since we’re on that lame trajectory now...we should trade for Corey Kluber and sign Andrew Miller.

Buehler
Kluber
Kershaw
Ryu
Urias

Of course....Kershaw gets any Game 1...because he is highest paid etc etc...but he’d be the 3rd best SP in that rotation.


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[Neddy]

I would actually argue that come playoffs, Kershaw will be the 5th best starter behind both Ryu and Hill. and here is why.

Clay's dominance in last decade, was in large part, due to his "stuff", his velocity on his fastball, and throwing initially a long slider, to later a tight, cutter like slider. he used those two pitches to create a deception between the two pitches, and when hitters catch up, then he uses his looping curve as an off-speed pitch. Clayton tips his curves much easier to hitters, and in Clay's prime and peak, his fastball was around 96, 95. that made a huge separation from his 87 mph slider, to 70 mph slow curve.
Well, his "stuff" is gone. the fastball and slider now only have about 4 mph separation. now that his two primary pitches are much easier to pick up, and now with his curve diminishing a bit of his spin rate, he now can only predictably rely on his control. this is doing just fine in regular season when the stakes are not as high, and hitters not as focused on every at bat against Clay. during the off seasons, we all see every year what the pressure does to his mental approach, and tends to make mistake pitches, with body language which he forgets is tipping his pitches.
the last part of his perceived strength was that he was a quiet leader who led by example, but in lat few seasons, we have heard about Kershaw asking the front office to trade Puig away and to resign Zack Greinke who is also on the same career trajectory as Kershaw, except Zack is smarter, and can throw everything at yeah.

come playoffs, Hill will use a half a dozen arm angles to deceive the batters. with his consistent, high spinning looper at 70 mph coming from all kinds of angles and its each and separate arc is comes at the plate, can make his 89-91 mph fastball look like Kershaw's prime-peak fastball. Kershaw's curve is no longer as consistent, and Clay cannot locate that pitch as well as Hill can.

playoffs or regular season, Ryu is coming off basically 2 and a half years of physical therapy and body strengthening at optical manner with a team of professionals. he is 30, 31 range in age, is far more versatile with 5 legit pitches he can throw without showing obvious tipping his pitches, as his grips between pitches and arm angle are very similar, especially when his fastball/changeup/cutter are all working from the exact same throwing motion. Ryu does tip a little with his surve, but most curveballers do to certain degree due to its grip and wrist turning over.

the point is, yes this was a deal that was to please the regular fans who do not engage in statistical analysis or spend hours watching prospect tapes. but the cost, to be honest, came much cheaper. I was expecting the team to announce either clay has opted out, and good luck statement thanking him for his services, OR, that we sign him back to a loony deal of 5 to 7 years at 30 + per, resulting in 150 mil to 200 mil dollar deal. this 90 mil is still certainly super expensive, but only adding 1 more year to the existing deal, is not bad. by the end of Kershaw's deal is when Seager, Bellinger, and other young sluggers either hit the FA or arbitration years.


extending QO to Ryu while giving kershaw a 3 year deal, is what got me surprised. I always thought come 2019, there would be a good chance one of the two lefties will stay or even both are gone. did not foresee the future where we get both back, while announcing Urias will have a spot in the rotation, and Buehler is obviously now the top of the rotation, big game pitcher. so...

after Clay-Walker-Ryu-Urias- the 5th and final spot is being competed by Hill, who is on his last year of the deal and come playoffs, he will be more dependable than the most. Maeda also has a guaranteed deal, and if the dodgers force him to be a reliever, he may ask for a trade to have a chance at starting elsewhere because of the way his contract is written. he has no leverage although if not met the request, he will not be a happy camper. as I said before, Alex Wood has not been traded yet, Ross Stripling was an allstar in 2018.

when we first resigned Hill, I think it was you who did not like the deal. maybe it was Ranma. so I stated back then that Hill was never signed on to be a any kind of work horse during the regular season, but to be a guy who can fill in when called upon in playoffs. I think in most part, he has fulfilled that role.

I get your sarcasm of trading for Kluber, as he is getting a rep as a right handed Kershaw come playoffs. but if he can be had without giving up Urias or Walker, which certainly they will be asking for, say, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood, they get a guy who has 4 years of control left, not even making a 1 mil yet in Ross, and even with arbitration eligibility of Wood, he won't be making more than maybe 10 mil at the most. Kluber's deal sharply rises for Indian's budget at 17 mil in 2019, then the team have 2 option years at around 20 mil per. that I think is a bargain. If we can have him for Ross or Wood or even both plus a filler or two from the low A ball, I would do that trade, for baseball reasons.

[Quake Griffin]

I don't mind having Hill. I just minded the overall outlay for him. Three prospects and $48 million for him is too much. I like him and he does his job in October, so I have no issues.

Two things though.
1) When we got him, we had a bevy of broken pitchers (Kazmir, Beachy, McCarthy, Anderson) and signing another one at the time seemed like the same risk. Those days seem long behind us but that offseason, they were not.

2) We didn't know anything about teams competing for his services at that point. Rich Hill himself came out at the end of the 2017 season and told us that the Yankees and Red Sox(?) big for his services. At the time we signed him, it was certainly feasible that we bid against ourselves.

I like Rich. I'm glad he is doing his job. These conversations require nuance. I can disagree on a narrow issue and like him for other things. You seem like you get that. Others do not.
__________________________

Your perspective on Kershaw is fantastic and the right one to me. I am glad that you can set aside your like for Kershaw as a person, family man, etc. etc. and tell the truth about him and hold him accountable.

I still think he is too big for the team. Ranma took issue with me on this because he assumed I was saying this was a character flaw of Kershaw's. It's not. He just simply is too big. This guy has been bad in October. The guy is bad in October with diminished stuff. Yet, twitter was STILL ready to suggest that Dave should have started him for Game 7 against the Brewers. I get it. He had a great Game 5 against Milwaukee but he has never demonstrated that he is the guy who will be consistent enough in October to warrant Dave getting media pressure to start him in Game 7.

True to form, he showed us exactly who he is in this World Series and [un]fortunately, there was no redeeming quality about his WS starts. He got whipped.
____________________________

This team should not have given Ryu or Yas the QO.
We need to be trying to retain Manny or Sign Harper. We do not need $36 million tied up in Grandal and Ryu.
True to form, like i've said all EFFIN year long....nobody expects Grandal to turn down the QO.

While I appreciate another year of regular season Grandal....he is not an October hitter/ catcher. We need to be looking elsewhere....and by elsewhere I mean either our farm system or for a catcher from another roster.

Starting Austin Barnes just isn't feasible at this point. He's not good enough. The support for this is only buoyed by Grandal-hate....not the actual best interest of the team.

[Neddy]

I am starting to think that Ryu will reject the QO in hopes of securing Kershaw-like hometown discount, but multi-year deal, (even potentially risk of not signing back with the dodgers) and here are the reasons why.

first, Ryu is not an American. yes is he is of Korean heritage just like my family, but my family are mostly ( at this point in our history, at least) Americans and Canadians. we live here, we need to keep making a living here, so it would make sense that if Ryu was an American pitcher, it would make sense that either A) if he wants to stay with the dodgers and keep living in LA, which his newly wedded wife loves, then you take the QO because that is a huge pay raise, and in hopes have a verbal agreement for Ryu to take a significant paycut for a hometown discount deal next year, say, 21 mil for 3 years with performance incentives for pushing it up to 45, with 4th year team option. in that way, he gets what he wants and possibly retire as a dodger. or B) you reject the QO if Scott Boras has a multi-year deal, because that A) Scenario may never even materialize. it most likely is a 1 year deal, without any further agreements. Ryu is coming off some major injuries, but in a small sample, he posted under 2.00 ERA. that is a huge sales point, along with his arm being rested. but here is the thing.... Ryu is not an American. he will go back to his home country most likely, prematurely before he is done, as he would probably take the route his fellow Hanwha Eagles teammate did... and his name is ChanHo Park. Ryu is finishing his very end of his career in S. Korea. he is not going to pander around when his skills are diminishing in his eyes to be anything less than at least a middle of the rotation guy in the majors. but 1 kicker. because he is not an American, he is not comfortable away from LA. it is basically proven from his home to away record, regardless of the altitudes and elevations. as an immigrant, basically, you tend to stay in your comfort, if given the similar deal. in other words, Ryu will be willing to negotiate to a certain point, but will have the cut off line at more steep level than say, someone born in LA to finish his career in LA.

secondly, because he is not an American, Ryu has a huge problem. this will be his one and only, the very last chance, to secure a long term contract. the history of taking QO is stacked against him. as an older pitcher with now a fairly long time off due to a serious injury to his shoulder, he may very well come out next season after taking that QO, and tear his shoulder again on the first pitch of the regular season. as a person with no certainty, I fully expect him to try out the FA to the MAX. if say, the Giants offer him 3 year deal for even 30 million dollars versus the QO as the only other alternative, he might take that deal. but also, even if he stays relatively healthy, what if he now swings the other way with his stats, and instead of under 2.00 ERA, he is having above 4.00 ERA season with ungodly BABIP against him next season? his value will tank and he is now what, 32? 33? who gets as sweet long term deal at that age nowadays as a pitcher? if he is healthy enough to play through it and secure another MLB contract? he may stay again, but I just don't see this guy getting such low offer as the one I said about the Giants' one at 30. he will be offered something better, evne with the draft pick lost, because we still have a ton of idiot GMs around the league, or really a team desperate enough to take the calculated risk. I can think of the Reds, from top of my head, being that one team who would be willing to gamble on an injury risk, but moderate pay, high reward guy like Ryu a 3 year deal worth around 50 mil. with a team option for the 4th with a buyout at under 1 mil. if offered from the Reds or any other team with similar offer, He will take that deal and run all the way to the bank laughing his ass off. If Ryu was an American, I say he takes the highest bidder's contact and easily finish his career as a Red, laughing even harder to the bank... but he is not an American, and not fluent in English. I can't imagine him living in Cinci over LA unless the deal was just not even close.

but in the end, I think the dodgers will offer him a decent deal if Boras is not angling Kikuchi with the dodgers, and Ryu will be flexible enough for the dodgers to have him back.

and about the time we were running the school of Theo Epstein's class of diversified investment in so called "medicine ball" at that time, was understandable, but reckless with a couple. we cut the pie smaller but with high risk groups, and the probability of that system working was actually rather high, but again, even with 3 seasons or so in that transitional time when we heavily depended on repaired arms, was such a small sample to judge the method itself.

[Neddy]

Sorry, the piece I wrote just above was a little too long and at times, I got lost where I was with my opinions versus which opinion I was writing for, needed a few editing jobs. hopefully nobody read my first draft, that would have been hella confusing. in fact, it might still be confusing and I should eventually go back and read it again to edit.

[wco81]

LA certainly has a big Korean American community, maybe the biggest in the country.

But if his agent is Boras, I would think they’re going to pursue every cent he could get. This may be his only chance to sign a big deal.