Brewers 2024 Discussion - Woodruff Back on 2 Year Deal

[LUKE23]

Not sure if mods want to move this into a different thread, but feel we can probably get this going with the Crew being done.

Should be a pretty busy offseason in terms of personnel changes you would think. Stearns one year left on his deal so he either gets extended or maybe "traded".

The team still currently has a very strong starting pitching core of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Lauer, Houser, with Gasser being relatively close assuming he doesn't bomb in AAA to start 2023. That said, with the arby raises coming for the top dogs, I feel like trading Burnes is probably the right move. His trade value drops with every start he makes moving forward, and he's the #1 pitcher on 90% of the staffs in baseball. He would get a haul and allow us to keep the minor league pipeline going. I could see him traded and Woodruff extended, and also getting some good pitching that isn't that far off for Burnes.

Offense needs a relative overhaul. Some terrible approaches at the plate this year and a lot of all or nothing. I feel like with Frelick and Turang up (and Ruiz) theoretically that adds more speed/contact ability to the lineup. I think Renfroe is kept, Yelich is moved to primarily a DH role, and the youngsters/Renfroe man the outfield.

Tellez will be back at 1B, think Hiura is traded. Turang at 2B, Adames at SS. I think they look at the trade/FA market for 3B (maybe get one for Burnes), with Urias/Brosseau as the fallback option.

Lineup verses RHP:

Frelick - LF
Adames - SS
Yelich - DH
Renfroe - RF
Tellez - 1B
Mitchell - CF
Urias - 3B
Turang - 2B
C (not sure on this yet, want it to be Feliciano but his D is awful. Hoping we upgrade from Caratini though).

Could see Mitchell/Turang higher in the order if they start out well. Would prefer a better #2 option but we will see what they do.

Personally, I would be fine with a complete tear down/rebuild, but I would be shocked if that happens. That said, they need to continue to restock the farm and try and establish a clear top 10 system that is ready to compete shortly. You need to trade Burnes to do that.

[MickeyDavis]

We'll use this as the offseason thread and I'll lock up the other one. Looking ahead on some key players:

Burnes, Woodruff, Rowdy and Adames have 2 years left before hitting FA. Burnes said we haven't even talked extension with him. He'll be 30. Woody will be 32 when he hits FA, I certainly don't want to pay him much or for very long. I'd trade Burnes now.

Wong has a $10 million mutual option. No way. I'd take him back on a cheap contract but no guarantee as a starter.

Urias has 3 years left. He'll be on the team. I'd like a better option at 3rd but we probably don't have one.

I liked having Cutch on the team but there's no room for him.

Renfroe has one year left before FA. I like the guy but if you can get something for him do it.

Navarez is a FA, sign him cheap or let him walk, don't really care.

Bullpen needs to be rebuilt.

Really need Frelick, Turang and Mitchell to come through. Mitchell has looked good, we'll see about the other 2.

7(!) years left of Yelich. Untradeable for awhile. A long while.

Off the books:
Cain ($18 million in 2022)
Wong ($8 million)
Hader ($11 million, will make more in 2023)
Cutch ($8.5 million)
Navarez ($5 million)

Renfroe if traded ($7.65 million)

Even with no payroll increase there's money to spend.

But I can see a payroll DECREASE. Attendance was down quite a bit.

[paulpressey25]

Feels like we’re falling back into the Selig era. The GM is talented but on a spending leash. And we’ve got all the payroll now tied up in Teddy Higuera, er Yelich.

And if you aren’t at least competitive, your average superfan from Greenfield isn’t going to be buying as many tickets, starting a vicious revenue spiral. It’s clear Attanasio won’t blow his cashflow budget, even when the team is very good (2018/19)

You guys have to educate me if the bats in the minors are good enough to not break it all up this offseason.

[LUKE23]

Feels like we’re falling back into the Selig era. The GM is talented but on a spending leash. And we’ve got all the payroll now tied up in Teddy Higuera, er Yelich.

And if you aren’t at least competitive, your average superfan from Greenfield isn’t going to be buying as many tickets, starting a vicious revenue spiral. It’s clear Attanasio won’t blow his cashflow budget, even when the team is very good (2018/19)

You guys have to educate me if the bats in the minors are good enough to not break it all up this offseason.

The AAA guys (Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz, Turang) all had great production and are still relatively young for the level, and Chourio is a top 5 prospect in baseball. Many believe Quero (catcher) should be a top 100 guy. Tyler Black has looked good. Feel like the offense is pretty stocked in the minors.

They don’t have many pitchers that are dominating for age/level. Small had a pretty bad year. Gasser looked good and Miso has some nasty stuff but he’s far off.

I do think they can field a strong contender if their minor league guys hit and they get a few more legit SP prospects for Burnes. But I would also be a full tear down (trade Burnes/Woody/Adames/etc). They have some pieces that could push this system to top 5 if they wanted.

[leroyjw10]

I wonder if the Mets, in an effort to go even more all-in next year, would be willing to part with Francisco Alvarez, the top catching and overall prospect in baseball as part of a package for Burnes. I mean, a trio of DeGrom, Scherzer, and Burnes is going to be nearly impossible to beat in a playoff series. For the Brewers, they get their opening day catcher next year along with, ideally, a few other prospects.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

[ReasonablySober]

I don't see many reasons to be optimistic that the offense will be better next season, barring a trade from the staff that brings back MLB contributors. Given Stearns' history that may be the plan. Just for the sake of it, here is fangraphs trade value piece from this summer. If you're looking at value, there's only two pitchers with more than Burnes, and Peralta and Woody aren't far behind. If the Brewers wanted to shore up a couple positions of need, they could do so.

[Ryan5UW]

I feel like they just have a bunch of guys who are ok and would be fine filling out the 6-9 spots in a batting order, but not many guys who are solid top of the order guys. Take Rowdy for example - he's fine and one of the better bats on the team, but as an anchor/clean up hitter I don't think he's it on a contending team. Other than Adames, I'm not sure there's any position player on the roster that I'd be disappointed if they were replaced. They also need to figure out the closer role, Williams ain't it. He's great as the 8th inning set up guy, but he seemed to just mentally fall apart after the Hader trade. Collectively they blew 15 saves after the Hader trade... woof!

[MikeIsGood]

I don't know if I can take another year of Rowdy. I'm braced for the inevitable, but he drives me crazy - maybe mostly in that many casual fans seem to love him because he can hit homeruns. But my god, when he isn't, he's utterly useless.

[Kerb Hohl]

They can go either way with what they've got.

Stearns can make some more shrewd moves to go all-in one or maybe two more times with Burnes/Woody/etc.

Or they will retool by dealing Burnes/Woody/etc. and I think they'll be a force again by 2024. It sucks to be a small market, but I keep looking at how Cleveland did it the past 3-4 years by taking the end of one era and opening up a new one. They've got some good bats ready to go in the minors and can add more depth/new pitching prospects.

[Kerb Hohl]

I feel like they just have a bunch of guys who are ok and would be fine filling out the 6-9 spots in a batting order, but not many guys who are solid top of the order guys. Take Rowdy for example - he's fine and one of the better bats on the team, but as an anchor/clean up hitter I don't think he's it on a contending team. Other than Adames, I'm not sure there's any position player on the roster that I'd be disappointed if they were replaced.

This has kinda been my opinion for the past 2 years' trade deadlines.

They had somebody they either paid a bunch of money to (Cain, Yelich, somewhat Wong) or just a solid player (Rowdy, Urias) at every position.

But whenever the question came up about the trade deadline or offseason - to improve on this, you'd have to bring in a star bat and spend $100+ million or throw your whole farm system at the problem. It was just a weird position to be in with the entire team. Adames is the only guy I like on offense. Everyone else is league average or slightly below it.

[LUKE23]

I think OF is one obvious upgrade spot. Taylor and McCutchen had almost 1,000 PA this year of low .700 OPS production. I do feel even as youngsters Frelick and Mitchell (and potentially Ruiz/Wiemer) can top that. Catcher is another one - there was basically 630 PA of trash there - would think that would go up either through an upgrade or guys just playing better.

To me the offensive key is getting more OBP at the top of the order though. I think Frelick, even as a rookie, will provide something they haven't had recently. Yelich appears to be turning into a OBP player (and I think banning the shift helps him more than many guys). Turang and Mitchell could also be high OBP guys. I'd feel a lot better about the O if they can establish three high OBP guys at 1-2-3 in front of Renfroe/Adames/Tellez.

One other note - Brewers were 10th in MLB this year in both runs and OPS. I will admit I think that is somewhat inflated by our division and facing some bad pitching, but the O wasn't terrible this year. It was just unbalanced, not fun to watch, and poor situationally. Improving the top of the order and OBP is the objective.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, I didn't really add that Narvaez's spot obviously is an upgrade spot going forward. But mid-2021/going into 2022 he was still viewed as fine or "he is a good bet to turn it around" give he was supposed to be a plus bat when they grabbed him and started out that way.

Once they got into 2022, it's hard to upgrade at catcher mid-season.

[LUKE23]

Yeah, I didn't really add that Narvaez's spot obviously is an upgrade spot going forward. But mid-2021/going into 2022 he was still viewed as fine or "he is a good bet to turn it around" give he was supposed to be a plus bat when they grabbed him and started out that way.

Once they got into 2022, it's hard to upgrade at catcher mid-season.

Yeah, be nice to move on to Feliciano, but it sounds like his defense is out of this world bad. Quero I think will be a stud but he's a couple years out. Just have to hope for internal improvement next year probably.

[sidney lanier]

I feel odd expressing this opinion, since I’ve always preferred the Walter Alston Steady Eddie managerial style, but next year I think I’d like a manager with a little more fire.

Counsell didn’t manage the psychological effects of the Hader departure well, and his voice overall is likely to be tuned out by now.

Regime change is far from a comprehensive solution, but I’ll take the slight electrical jolt it might provide.

Besides, Counsell at the helm next spring seems like it would be a tacit organizational endorsement of mediocrity and spiritless, lackluster play.

[ReasonablySober]

Entering tonight Mitchell had a .556 BABIP

[thonnisbeastley]

Keep Burnes for one more year and go all-in, spend some real money on a big-time FA bat. Doesn't matter what position really, any upgrade will do. This is the closest we're getting to a World Series for the next 6-10 years at least. All or nothing next season.

Can still trade Burnes/Woodruff after next season for some pretty big hauls. Could care less if their value drops on the trade market because we actually went all-in for once and tried to win. Would be worth it. It's hard to imagine our offense sucking as much next year as they did this.

[LUKE23]

Nice to see Mitchell ending year strong and looking like CF of future.

[ReasonablySober]

Nice to see Mitchell ending year strong and looking like CF of future.

Chourio is the CF of the future. Mitchell is looking more like a 4th OF, and he'll probably have to compete with Ruiz for that role.

[Kerb Hohl]

Turang and Mitchell are the guys getting hype that I'm definitely happy to have and both have the athletic profile to either add some power (Turang) or exceed expectations...or at the very least can be useful utility guys. But the high K% for Mitchell and low slugging for Turang give lower expectations for modern day baseball.

Now, maybe the rule changes next year with no shifts and stolen bases becoming more of a thing make both of them more valuable, but previously, you have to be a top 10 "hit tool" hitter to come in with a low slugging percentage and remain a good/elite hitter. Arraez, Kwan, etc. can hit it where they ain't, but most guys with low slugging percentage will be hitting it to a defender far too often if they can't hit it over the fence or over a defender's head enough (could happen to Turang). The ~.300 minors average can drop drastically when they hit the majors.

I guess Turang being so young means he can definitely realize that power potential and add exactly what I'm asking for.

[leroyjw10]

Nice to see Mitchell ending year strong and looking like CF of future.

Chourio is the CF of the future. Mitchell is looking more like a 4th OF, and he'll probably have to compete with Ruiz for that role.

It's going to be real interesting to see what the Brewers do with their OF next year and into the future. With five really good OF prospects (Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz), something has to give. If I was a betting man, I'd lean toward Frelick, Chourio, and Wiemer being the starting OF with Yelich at DH.

Agreed that Mitchell feels more like the 4th OF, but curious what he might fetch as part of a trade.