Brewers Game Thread - Division Champs!

Kerb Hohl · Post #1141 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:17 am

Alright fine, that was fun.

Cubs probably down to about a 1% chance but now we turn to D-Backs/Astros to see if the snakes slip back down into 6 seed contention.

Post #1142 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:17 am

Baseball is just the best.

MikeIsGood · Post #1143 » by **MikeIsGood** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:18 am

That's so **** great.

blazza18 · Post #1144 » by **blazza18** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:19 am

Not many sports can have these moments like baseball does. So freakin' cool.

Kerb Hohl · Post #1145 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:28 am

A guy that has worked forever in the minors to get here, likely won’t ever be back after this year…a guy that probably would have a 6+ ERA if he faced MLB hitters over a long season…

Comes in and shuts down a bunch of MLB hitters. Some $100+ million guys. For his childhood favorite team. And gets the win. Good stuff.

Matches Malone · Post #1146 » by **Matches Malone** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:29 am

Read on Twitter

Matches Malone · Post #1147 » by **Matches Malone** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:31 am

Read on Twitter

Post #1148 » by **MickeyDavis** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:31 am

Who has tiebreaker between DBacks and Marlins

Matches Malone · Post #1149 » by **Matches Malone** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:33 am

MickeyDavis wrote:Who has tiebreaker between DBacks and Marlins

I think Marlins have it over the DBacks.

BUCKnation · Post #1150 » by **BUCKnation** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:34 am

That was f***ing awesome

coolhandluke121 · Post #1151 » by **coolhandluke121** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 12:22 pm

D-Backs lost to a guy whose ERA was nearly 6 coming into the game. :nonono:

Need Kelly to beat Verlander today, or the Cubs and Marlins outcomes we were hoping for could be a bad thing. Don't want the Marlins in #5 unless the Reds can somehow claim #6. Bonus points if the D-Backs can knock the Asteroids out too. :lol:

Post #1152 » by **MickeyDavis** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 12:50 pm

I don't care who we face as long as Am Fam isn't a majority of Cubs fans. If we can't get by Arizona or Miami at home the season is a bust anyway.

BUCKnation · Post #1153 » by **BUCKnation** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 12:51 pm

All the wildcard teams in contention are floundering right now. Reminds me of last year with us and the Phillies where no one seemed like they wanted it until the very end where, in this case, the Marlins keep pulling out games.

coolhandluke121 · Post #1154 » by **coolhandluke121** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:10 pm

BUCKnation wrote:All the wildcard teams in contention are floundering right now. Reminds me of last year with us and the Phillies where no one seemed like they wanted it until the very end where, in this case, the Marlins keep pulling out games.

I don't think that has any predictive value for the playoffs unless there's something really wrong with those teams, such as injuries or obvious regression to the mean. These are garden variety slumps that can end at any time. You still want to draw the least talented/healthy team possible in round 1, regardless of how they've played recently. You mention the Phillies, but that's a perfect example. They made the world series after underachieving pretty much all season. You don't want to play a talented team like that in round 1 if you don't have to. The Cubs could start hitting again at any point right now.

I respect the competitive attitude of expecting to be able to beat whomever you face, and it's true that it's a marginal difference in probabilities. However, this entire team is built around maximizing their advantages in those margins and playing the percentages to the best of their ability. Knocking out the Cubs and wanting to face the Marlins is just another analytics game to me. I don't like the way CC didn't make more effort to win last night's game. It's giving me flashbacks to 2011 when the Brewers failed to kick the Cardinals when they were down, only to see them make the playoffs by ONE game and eventually beat the Brewers. The Cardinals were much more talented and dangerous than anyone else in the NL that year, despite their record. Does anyone else vividly remember this game? https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL201108020.shtml

Or forgetting the Cubs for a moment, if the D-Backs fall to #6 and get pitching gems from Gallen and Kelly and win 2 low-scoring games against the Brewers in round 1, it won't be fair to say "Well, the Brewers would have probably lost to the Marlins too." Most objective observers will simply say, "The Brewers lost to an inferior team because they had to face two excellent starters in a 3-game playoff series." And they'll be right.

BUCKnation · Post #1155 » by **BUCKnation** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:53 pm

Baseball is the super unpredictable. Im just speaking to the state of the current race. Marlins could easily get hot, beat us and then find themselves in the WS

coolhandluke121 · Post #1156 » by **coolhandluke121** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 6:04 pm

BUCKnation wrote:Baseball is the super unpredictable. Im just speaking to the state of the current race. Marlins could easily get hot, beat us and then find themselves in the WS

Sure, I'm not denying that. I just think a slightly more talented, healthy team like Arizona or Chicago is a little more likely to do so. I know I'm splitting hairs here, but I've been all-in on the Brewers pretty much all season, so I have a lot invested in every little thing that could affect them.

blazza18 · Post #1157 » by **blazza18** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:22 pm

coolhandluke121 · Post #1158 » by **coolhandluke121** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:22 pm

Okay, bases are empty, Lauer can just pretend it's a brand new game. :lol:

MikeIsGood · Post #1159 » by **MikeIsGood** » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:56 pm

Hideous call, yowza.

Post #1160 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sun Oct 1, 2023 12:30 am

Lauer. Woof.