2010 Brewers Specific Predictions

[humanrefutation]

So, we have an MLB prediction thread, I figured we could toss out a Brewers specific thread to talk about things more relevant to this specific team.

Team:
1. Record? 88-74
2. Division Finish? I say we finish second, behind the Cards and ahead of the Reds and Cubs.
3. Playoffs? How far do we go? I say we make it as a WC but get knocked out in the divisional round. We could be a world series team, if everything comes together, or finish far below .500. I figure we'll finish somewhere slightly above the middle.

Players:
1. Biggest surprise hitter? Starter? I hate to call him a surprise because he showed some flashes last year, but Rickie Weeks could end up as big time producer again. I could very easily see him batting .290/30/100. He's my pick for hitters. For pitchers, I think Doug Davis will have a solid season. He'll be consistent, reliable, and productive.
2. Biggest disappointment hitter? Pitcher? I feel terrible because I really like the guy, but I think Casey McGehee will come back to earth and have a subpar season. Counsell will end up getting a lot of his production. As for pitchers, I have a feeling that Hoffman is not going to be as reliable as he usually his.
3. Is Prince Fielder a Brewer post-All Star break? Any other big moves? Yes, and I think we make serious progress towards resigning him. I also think we make a run at a starter again.
4. Does Matt Gamel become a productive part of the Brewers this season? No. I honestly don't think Gamel will ever be a productive part of the Brewers. I think he's the centerpiece of my aforementioned move for a pitcher.
5. Does Corey Hart rebound (if he's on the roster)? Yes, I think he'll get better, but he'll never quite be as good as he was during the 1st half of his all star season.
6. Which one of the newcomers to the lineup (Gomez, Escobar, Zaun, Edmonds) has the best season? I think Alcides will turn out to be a big improvement from Hardy. I also think Edmonds will turn out to be a great bat off the bench and in a platoon in the OF.
7. Which one of the newcomers to the pitching staff (Hawkins, Wolf, Davis) has the best season? Doug Davis, though I think Wolf will be solid as well.
8. Pitching MVP? Gallardo. I think he makes a reasonable run at a Cy Young.
9. Hitting MVP? Fielder.

Coaches:
Does Macha last the season? If so, does he get an extension? In my scenario, he''s back next season and gets an extension at midseason.

Front Office:
Does Melvin come back next season? Yes. But, if the Brewers don't make a run this season, I don't think he's back next year.

These are some questions...feel free to offer your answers or add any questions that I haven't answered.

[humanrefutation]

Oh...and you obviously don't have to answer all of these if you don't want to, I just figured I'd toss out what I thought were some of the biggest questions for this team.

[Kerb Hohl]

I was somewhat optimistic looking at this team a few weeks ago but I got terribly pessimistic thinking about how bad McGehee will probably be and Hart is this season.

1. 83-79.
2. 3rd
3. No

1. Hmmmm. I guess Edmonds. Weeks isn't going to hit .290 as you stated, but could put a big year. To me it isn't even a surprise if he does though. I think Escobar will do OK too. On the staff I guess I'd say Davis. Gallardo is known to be good and Wolf will slightly underwhelm.

2. McGehee. Hart and Gomez would qualify if they actually had expectations.

3. Yes, Melvin doesn't have the balls to trade Fielder even if he should. He'll wait to call out for trade offers in his final 1/2 season or hilariously after he's already gone. Look at his track record with Hall, Hardy, and Hart when they had trade value.

4. He should be when he returns to health assuming what we all expect from McGehee. We'll get him 1/4 of the at bats he should be getting on the bench in Milwaukee and then send him down for a while.

5. Not a chance in hell.

6. Escobar.

7. Wolf > Davis > Hawkins. Though not by much in the top 2 as Wolf will regress and Davis will pitch his usual.

8. Yo.

9. Prince.

Coaches: Yeah, I guess.

Front Office: We go 0-162 and he'll be back. Again, other than Yost, this franchise doesn't do very much in the smart/ballsy department. I'd rather hire Paul DiPodesta's laptop to be the GM, though.

[trwi7]

Record: 79-83 (although I feel like I should lower it to 74ish wins)

Division Finish: 4th

Playoffs: Not close

Surprise: Weeks, because there are really no other choices.

Disappointment: McGehee.

Fielder a Brewer post all-star break?: Unfortunately yes and no other significant move.

Gamel productive this season?: Probably not. Macha just doesn't seem to like him and McGehee
won't be so bad that he'll lose playing time.

Does Hart rebound?: No, he regresses even more.

Most productive newcomer to lineup?: Edmonds.

Most productive newcomer pitcher?: Wolf.

Pitching MVP: Gallardo

Hitting MVP: Fielder

Does Macha last through the season and if so does he get an extension?: Yes and no.

Does Melvin come back after the season?: Probably, but I hope not.

[FireStreetlifeNow]

Team:
1. Record? 76-86
2. Division Finish? Fourth behing the Cards, Chubs and Reds.
3. Playoffs? Nope not with three automatic outs in the lineup (Gomez/Zaun/pitcher)

Players:
1. Biggest surprise hitter? Starter? Jody Gerut or Escobar, Chris Narveson

2. Biggest disappointment hitter? Pitcher? Tough one but since I expect nothing out of Gomez, Zaun or Hart, I'd have to go with Casey, the sophomore slump will hit him big time. Doug Davis led the league in walks last year, not a good formula for success. I think Wolf's numbers will be up from last year as well.

3. Is Prince Fielder a Brewer post-All Star break? Any other big moves? Yes, No.

4. Does Matt Gamel become a productive part of the Brewers this season? Can't field and now he's banged up, sounds familiar.

5. Does Corey Hart rebound (if he's on the roster)? Sure, but not to the level he was a few years ago.

6. Which one of the newcomers to the lineup (Gomez, Escobar, Zaun, Edmonds) have the best season?
It has to be Escobar, Gomez and Zaun stink and Edmonds is probably suited to be more of a platoon player.

7. Which one of the newcomers to the pitching staff (Hawkins, Wolf, Davis) have the best season?
Probably Wolf, but it won't be that great of a year.

8. Pitching MVP? Probably Gallardo
9. Hitting MVP? Fielder.

Coaches:
Does Macha last the season? If so, does get an extension? Yes and no.

Front Office:
Does Melvin come back next season? Yes. But, if the Brewers don't make a run this season, I don't think he's back next year.

[Ayt]

Twirl posted what I was going to post.

In my upcoming OOTP season, I will be trading Fielder for SP prospects.

[MickeyDavis]

This is tough. I think our pitching is better. It all depends on how much McGehee regresses (and I think he will to some degree) and how bad Gomez sucks (not optimistic). Weeks needs to stay healthy and be productive. Edmonds has to come through (I think Hart is a lost cause). I can honestly see anywhere from 75-85 wins. I'll go with 78-84.

[humanrefutation]

Well, I'm not surprised to see most of you predicting subpar seasons for this team. It's easier...set your expectations low and cheer if they surpass them. But, I think this team will be a better, maybe not as good as I'm predicting, but better than some of you think.

I mean, the way I look at it is...our starting rotation couldn't be that much worse than last season, so I think that'll provide a big boost our record to begin with.

We downgrade offensively at CF and likely at 3B, but we're getting a boost at catcher and likely at shortstop. Fielder and Braun haven't given us a reason to believe that they won't continue to carry this offense, so they're numbers should be in the ballpark of what we've seen.

Our pen will benefit from Hawkins and a better starting rotation.

So, I just don't see us really getting that much worse than we were last season unless we suffer a ton of injuries or the wheels fall off.

[Mags FTW]

This is the one place where I can tolerate Brewer fans. Very refreshing to see realistic predictions instead of pom pon shaking yahoos who pick a number in the 90s every year.

I pretty much agree with MD that it could be 75 to 85. The 2 huge variables are Gomez and Weeks. Ricky was on pace to hit 39 HRs and 105 RBIs in 162 games before he went down with his injury. If he stays healthy the whole year (which is unlikely given his history) I think it will be closer to 85 wins. If he misses time and Gomez blows then it will be closer to 75. I'll go with 82-80.

[ReasonablySober]

Twirl posted what I was going to post.

In my upcoming OOTP season, I will be trading Fielder for SP prospects.

You just reminded me to pre-order. Do so and the price is $10 off.

When I got it last season it sort of took the shine off The Show. Full minors, just about every facet of Major League Baseball, historical rosters, ability to customize everything. Baseball geek's wet dream.

[ReasonablySober]

I was surprised anyone would pick the Brewers to make the post-season, but ESPN has three guys who think they'll actually win the Central.

[Jollay]

No way the Brewers are worse than .500. Their rotation couldn't be worse than last year, in fact its hard to believe it won't be significantly better.

84-78 just short of the playoffs. They have the potential to win the division but there are too many ifs and they are relying on too many players to have bounceback (or first good one) years.

[Captain Erv]

Aaron Boone picks the Reds to win the Central? Really?

[Mags FTW]

I was surprised anyone would pick the Brewers to make the post-season, but ESPN has three guys who think they'll actually win the Central.

Here's one of them:

Steve Berthiaume (born 1965, Kohler, Wisconsin)

[WEFFPIM]

I was surprised anyone would pick the Brewers to make the post-season, but ESPN has three guys who think they'll actually win the Central.

Plus two Wild Card choices.

Another guy who picked the Brewers to win the Central was JP Ricciardi, who did just a terrific job analyzing talent with Toronto

[trwi7]

We should get Ricciardi as our next GM. He definitely would've got the Adam Dunn trade done.

Edit: lulz at Joe Morgan picking the Mets to win the wildcard.

[El Duderino]

Record: 83-79

Division Finish: 2nd or 3rd

Playoffs: About a 30 percent chance

Surprise: Escobar at the plate and Zach Braddock when he eventually gets called up

Disappointment: McGehee as everyone else thinks

Fielder a Brewer post all-star break?: Yes on Prince. No clue about any future trades

Gamel productive this season?: I've had a bad feeling for awhile now that Gamel will eventually be traded for less than he's worth and he'll go one to be a fixture for another team in a move the franchise regrets significantly.

Does Hart rebound?: Nope with us. I do though have a very minor fear that Hart could end up being productive elsewhere as a Werth lite type.

Most productive newcomer to lineup?: Edmonds as others believe. He's going to end up being in the lineup vs the majority of righthanded starters. Mostly in place of Hart, but here and there for Gomez. I just hope he never faces a lefty because he can't hit them.

Most productive newcomer pitcher?: Wolf and i think it won't be by default, he'll have a good season.

Pitching MVP: Gallardo

Hitting MVP: Fielder

Does Macha last through the season and if so does he get an extension?: Yes and no

Does Melvin come back after the season?: I'm curious to see what Attanasio will do if say we win under 80 games. Atanasio isn't like the Selig's, i think he has some cut throat in him and he expects results for the money he's spending where as multiple other small market owners are mostly just pocketing revenue sharing money.

[Ayt]

Gallardo is in the discussion for the Cy, Braun and Fielder both have MVP calbier seasons, Gomez can actually hit, Escobar has a solid season, McGehee doesn't fall off a cliff, Edmunds takes over in RF for the most part, Gerut has a solid year splitting a lot of time with Gomez, and our pitching staff is respectable enough to get the job done.

93 wins

[Siefer]

Record: 81-81

Division Finish: 2nd or 3rd

Playoffs: Little to no chance.

Surprise: Carlos Gomez. I'm reaching here, but I think there is a (possibly tiny) chance that Gomez sniffs some of his potential. .260/.330 with good defense? Hey, it's early - a guy can dream.

Disappointment: McGehee - he's played well above his career (Minor League) averages in 2009, and he's looked terrible all Spring.

Fielder a Brewer post all-star break?: Yes

Gamel productive this season?: I see no reason to think this franchise won't continue to botch his development leading to the inevitable trade at pennies on the dollar.

Does Hart rebound?: No, he'll probably be worse than last year. His plate discipline and effort have gone out the window.

Most productive newcomer to lineup?: Jim Edmonds. I think he'll have a Gabe Kapler in 2008 level impact.

Most productive newcomer pitcher?: Wolf. I honestly think he'll be productive.

Pitching MVP: Gallardo

Hitting MVP: Fielder

Does Macha last through the season and if so does he get an extension?: Yes. No.

Does Melvin come back after the season?: Probably, but if we severely under-perform (say closer to 70 wins), I think he could get the axe. It will be interesting to see this play out, especially if his FA and trade pick ups don't pan out. I honestly would like to see him gone, though. I have zero faith in his ability to handle the Gamel and/or Fielder situations correctly.

[Thunder Muscle]

Macha will be canned on May 13rd after a 13-21 start to the season and team turmoil.