that was a nice road trip

[TTown]

series wins @ texas and @ cinci.

we're 39-49, with a 7 game home stand before the break (4 bostox, 3 laa). i've stopped predicting things with this team; we look so capable one series, and so ass backwards the next it's impossible to expect anything.

saunders has a 2.70 era over his last 8 starts. wonder what we could fetch for him?

what's the prospect watch look like? in limit innings in tacoma, it looks like walker and hultzen are owning it. are we at all worried that paxton and maurer are getting lit up? going by nothing but the boxscores, it looks like paxton is throwing blanks or getting lit up for 7 runs depending on the start.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

I just have to chime in about something.

What the hell is up with this Ackley in CF deal? Now, I know we got blown out that game against the Reds, but in Game 2, he couldn't even throw out Matt Latos at the plate. I mean, it wasn't even close. Matt Latos scored from 2nd on a fairly hard hit ball up the middle. Awful.

...And here's Ackley. Throwing a 10 hopper weakly to the plate. Does our FO really think this is something that can work? If Ackley can find his swing and keep it consistent, maybe move Franklin to SS and Ackley back to 2B? I'm not sold on Miller.

[TTown]

bonderman released, erasmo back in. a solid decision.

[Sweezo]

Anyone watching the M's/Red Sox game tonight is likely watching the most fun M's game of the season. Damn near everyone's hitting tonight...except Bay. What the hell is this team going to look like with a healthy Morse as an upgrade over Bay? Not that I don't like Bay but his ceiling is as a 4th OF.

Smoak's just turned a corner, and Saunders looks like he might be over his slump as well.

we're 39-49, with a 7 game home stand before the break (4 bostox, 3 laa). i've stopped predicting things with this team; we look so capable one series, and so ass backwards the next it's impossible to expect anything.

saunders has a 2.70 era over his last 8 starts. wonder what we could fetch for him?

what's the prospect watch look like? in limit innings in tacoma, it looks like walker and hultzen are owning it. are we at all worried that paxton and maurer are getting lit up? going by nothing but the boxscores, it looks like paxton is throwing blanks or getting lit up for 7 runs depending on the start.

That was an impressive road trip. What happens if we take the series against the Red Sox and the Angels before the All Star Break? And find ourselves maybe a handful of games back of a wild card berth?

Hultzen's hurt again so I wouldn't expect to see him this season. Walker's a goddamned menace. I don't think he will get a call-up [there's only so much of that we can do with our 40 man roster where it's at right now] but if he does I'd be thrilled.

I think Paxton's starting to get it going. He threw a 9 inning CGSO tonight. He's had two bad starts since June but there's been more good than bad. If he can get deeper into games like he did tonight I suddenly feel better about his potential.

As for Joe Saunders...I doubt the team moves him. He has a team option for next season, and supposedly the O's asked and found the price too high. The same O's who rode Saunders into the playoffs last year. Honestly, if he's going to be traded at a Washburn/Bedard price I'd rather keep him around. And I'm not against bringing Harang back on a cheap deal next season and letting him compete for the #5 spot.

I just have to chime in about something.

What the hell is up with this Ackley in CF deal? Now, I know we got blown out that game against the Reds, but in Game 2, he couldn't even throw out Matt Latos at the plate. I mean, it wasn't even close. Matt Latos scored from 2nd on a fairly hard hit ball up the middle. Awful.

...And here's Ackley. Throwing a 10 hopper weakly to the plate. Does our FO really think this is something that can work? If Ackley can find his swing and keep it consistent, maybe move Franklin to SS and Ackley back to 2B? I'm not sold on Miller.

There's two things about Ackley's defense that have really looked iffy: [1] His throwing, and [2] His routes he takes. The throwing thing might now be an arm strength thing...he's just not hitting the cutoff guys. Both those problems probably shouldn't surprise us since Ackley hasn't really played OF since college. I feel kind of bad for the guy...M's draft, make him work very hard to stick as a 2B, and now they want him to do something else. In any event, his defensive issues in the OF might be fixed over time as he figures out what he is doing.

But what's his ceiling as an OF?

If Franklin and Miller finish the season strong, and Ackley looks decent offensively, I think you look to move Ackley to a team that needs a 2B. I think that's your maximum return on him if you can't turn him into a plus starting 2B here.

What has you on the fence about Miller? I think he's got some things to work on [stop double clutching the ball!] but his defense has been sound, he gets on base, and he's fast as ****.

bonderman released, erasmo back in. a solid decision.

Agreed. I think the timing is right. Bonderman's been a ticking time bomb and I'm glad we got ready of him before he exploded. I'm a big fan of Erasmo and can't wait to see what he brings to this team.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

That definitely was a fun game to watch.

You guys know I've been probably the biggest hater of Smoak around, but I'm a fan of his right now. He's seemed to found a good stroke at the plate. And wow, he's not pulling EVERYTHING weakly on the ground or in the air. He's using all fields. AMAZING. Plus, his plate dicipline is light-years ahead of last season.

Love Franklin. Love Seager. Love Morales. If Saunders can get his swing back, we have a fairly potent offense.

As for Miller; I like the kid. Solid defense, awesome speed, and great energy. His plate discipline worries me, and he seems to have consistency issues. I love his aggressiveness at the plate, but I can see that hurting him. Only time will tell. Right now I would keep him over Ackley, and I agree with shipping Ackley off if he starts having some value.

[Sweezo]

On second thought, I wish we'd kept Bonderman around for the long relief role and shipped Beaven to whatever place will have him. That's 12 appearances on the season, and he's avoiding giving runs in only two of them. Combine that bit of ineffectiveness with one of the slowest deliveries to the plate and you've got yourself one irritating pitcher.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

Beavan is awful. I dont know why he is still on the club. He wasn't even good last season. Dump him. Agreed Bonderman could have been kept around for that role. Jesus.

And what the hell is up with Kuma. He hasn't been good for about 5 starts now. Very frustrating.

Offense was good last night. Again. Atleast that's encouraging.

[Sweezo]

Beavan is awful. I dont know why he is still on the club. He wasn't even good last season. Dump him. Agreed Bonderman could have been kept around for that role. Jesus.

And what the hell is up with Kuma. He hasn't been good for about 5 starts now. Very frustrating.

Offense was good last night. Again. Atleast that's encouraging.

I think Kuma might be worn out. He didn't pitch a ton of innings last year, and had shoulder issues not long before that. I wouldn't mind seeing the M's skip his turn in the rotation once to give him a bit of respite.

Hopefully Erasmo can light the world on fire today and salvage this series. I'll happily take a series split against the Red Sox.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

Ramirez struggling with his control, at 85 pitches, and you bring him out for another inning when we have a 3 run lead?

Wedge. Is. An. Idiot.

I'm becoming a real fan of Miller atleast. He's shown me something over the past week.

Our pitching is awful though, and suddenly our offense is unstoppable. I give up.

[Sweezo]

Not a great performance for Erasmo, but boy is it maddening when a RP comes in and lets all the inherited runners score. Look at the LOB% numbers for our bullpen and there's a lot of guys who leave the game with a clean sheet but stick the guy they replaced with a couple of runs.

Erasmo struggled and maybe shouldn't have been allowed to start the inning but he only needed one out to get out of it and qualify for the win. Wedge pulled him, Furbush allowed the tying runs, and we lose the game again.

Our pitching is awful though, and suddenly our offense is unstoppable. I give up.

One area I wasn't horribly concerned entering the season about was the bullpen. Wilhelmson was the entrenched closer, O. Perez the setup LHP, Pryor/Capps as the flame-throwing RHP, Luetge as a competent LHP, Furbush as well, and Josh Kinney as a mop-up guy.

Kinney gets hurt and we've not seen him all season. Same with Pryor.

Capps isn't throwing as hard as he was last year by a couple mph. He's still striking guys out at about the same rate as last year, but he's allowing more flyballs this season and 1 out of 5 flyballs he gives up is a home run.

Luetge's striking out fewer batters than last year while walking few batters than last year, is inducing more groundballs while seeing his HR/FB% nearly double. I suppose you could look at his numbers and argue he's been unlucky over a small sample size but he's getting hit hard just like Capps.

Oliver Perez has been lights out...and possibly on the trade block. I think he's a good trade piece but I'm not looking forward to trading the one reliever who I have confidence in. He's been incredibly deceptive and while he's giving up some flyballs and runs a low GB%...I just don't think he gets hit hard, and he strikes guys out at a very high clip. Big difference between a flyball your 1B can settle under and a flyball your RF is chasing down at the warning track.

So why does the whole bullpen [save one guy] suddenly stink? I think a couple things are going on which we probably should have expected: [1] This is what happens when you take a light hitting team that's great defensively and attempt to convert them into an offensive team while sacrificing defense, and [2] this is what happens when you move the fences in. Sure, it's fun watching the M's score 7 runs in a game, but what good does it do if they give up 10?

We've given up a ton on defense, sometimes due to injury, and sometimes due to a shift in philosophy. You lose Guti and suddenly Ackley's the CF. Ackley may be a competent CF but Guti's the best defensive CF league when he's healthy. Bay, Ibanez, and Morse have given you 44 HR this season but they're all terrible defensively. Miller's made some simple mistakes with throws and positioning while replacing the game's best defensive SS. Franklin's done the same while replacing a very good defensive 2B in Ackley.

Much like the '90s I think the common thought will be people saying we need better pitching, but that's only part of the equation. You can't expect the same performance from players when you cut holes in their safety net.

Maybe the team will have to change their focus a bit when looking at pitchers. Safeco's not as friendly to flyball pitchers any more, and neither are the M's defenders.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

I'm not going to blame the fences. I think thats the easy out for many Mariners struggles. I think its just that our pitchers aren't very good. Capps? Not any good. Tom? Not any good. Luetge? Not any good.

Need better talent in the penn. Ofcourse, we would have that with Pryor in there, and Kinney as well. But, It's not a huge concern of mine right now. Look at the pathetic excuse we have for 4 and 5 starters (well, Ramirez might lighten the burden there NOW), along with a struggling Kuma, and it begins there.

What's up with our Minor League pitchers? Anything? Saving them for next season?

[Sweezo]

I'm not going to blame the fences.

It's not all the fences but I think it's part of it. Safeco ranked dead last in park factors [runs] last season. This season we're #12. Our offense was pretty good in 2001 and SafeCo was ranked second to last then too. There's a decade's worth of data placing Safeco at or near the bottom every single year, and suddenly this season Safeco's played slightly better than the Ball Park in Arlington for offenses.

It's the same problem we had in the KingDome. Too many flyable pitchers blowing leads in a stadium that turned routine flyballs into home runs.

[Sweezo]

What's up with our Minor League pitchers? Anything? Saving them for next season?

In terms of relievers or starters? In terms of relievers, here's what we have on the 40 man roster:

# Pitchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
49 Blake Beavan * R-R 6'7" 255 Jan 17, 1989
58 Carter Capps * R-R 6'5" 220 Aug 7, 1990
40 Danny Farquhar R-R 5'9" 180 Feb 17, 1987
64 Anthony Fernandez * L-L 6'4" 210 Jun 8, 1990
41 Charlie Furbush L-L 6'5" 215 Apr 11, 1986
30 Bobby LaFromboise L-L 6'4" 215 Jun 25, 1986
44 Lucas Luetge L-L 6'4" 205 Mar 24, 1987
31 Yoervis Medina R-R 6'3" 245 Jul 27, 1988
45 Hector Noesi R-R 6'3" 205 Jan 26, 1987
59 Oliver Perez L-L 6'3" 220 Aug 15, 1981
46 Stephen Pryor 60-day DL ** R-R 6'4" 250 Jul 23, 1989
54 Tom Wilhelmsen R-R 6'6" 220 Dec 16, 1983

And starters:

57 Chance Ruffin * R-R 6'0" 195 Sep 8, 1988
23 Joe Saunders L-L 6'3" 215 Jun 16, 1981
50 Erasmo Ramirez * R-R 5'11" 200 May 2, 1990
37 Brandon Maurer * R-R 6'5" 215 Jul 3, 1990
39 Aaron Harang R-R 6'7" 260 May 9, 1978
34 Felix Hernandez R-R 6'3" 230 Apr 8, 1986
60 Danny Hultzen * L-L 6'3" 200 Nov 28, 1989
18 Hisashi Iwakuma R-R 6'3" 210 Apr 12, 1981

This presents a problem. If you're dissatisfied with a reliever or starter, there's not many options currently on the 40 man roster to bring up as a replacement. It won't break my heart if the team deems Walker ready at some point and Harang goes away...not in the slightest.

But not all the decisions are that simple. When Pryor's healthy, he goes back on the 40 man roster which means someone comes off. Call up a guy like Brian Moran who's pitched well in relief for Tacoma and you have to add him to the 40 man, which again means someone comes off.

Who do you cut bait with on this roster just to give a new guy a shot when there really haven't been any true standouts out of Tacoma's bullpen? Do you cut Furbush out of frustration and give a young guy like Moran a chance? Do that and another team will grab Furbush, guaranteed. Then what happens when the young guy struggles [which he will--leagues adjust when a rookie gets off to a hot start]?

Watching the bullpen blow a game is arguably the most frustrating thing that can happen in sports, but in my opinion there's no point in making drastic changes to the bullpen right now. In the offseason? I supposed you can take a look at bringing in some guys who are groundball pitchers and have elite strikeout rates but that won't be cheap. I'd rather spend some money on some outfielders who can produce offensively AND defensively to help our pitching staff out, give Pryor and Capps some leash to figure it out, and go from there.

[TTown]

1. baltimore, 128
2. toronto, 114
3. seattle, 113

you aren't kidding about the kingdome, look at those HR numbers. holy jumping orangutans batman, it's like junior, edgar, a-rod, and buhner are back in town. the mariners are 3rd in the majors in bombs?

i believe we're 20 games strong with at least one HR per, meaning we have the longest such string in the majors this season and the longest streak in franchise history. startling numbers.

check out old man river coming in 3rd in the AL at age 41:

1. chris davis, 35
2. miguel cabrera, 30
3. rauuuuuuuuuuul, 24

who knew The Safe would be a place where aging sluggers could go to extend their careers?

[Sweezo]

A sweep! Take that, Angels. We're 9 games under .500 heading into the break and we're on a roll. Nothing takes the sting out of losing 3 games to Boston like sweeping a division rival.

Thank God we didn't end up with Josh Hamilton...he's done very little this season, and he went 1 for 12 with 5 K's against us.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

^ And we open the second half with games against the Astros, somebody, and then the Twins. Gotta take care of business against those two garbage teams.

I'm almost SCARED to say this, but.....I'm starting to really like the look of this club. I mean, a lineup of Miller, Franklin, Ibanez, Morales, and Seager is GOOD. Like, that's a playoff caliber 1-5 IMO. And, with the exception of Ibanez, it's guys that can be really good in this league for multiple more years.

And you add into the mix a PRODUCTIVE Justin Smoak? Really, for our team, it's not so much that we've been needing to sign some legit bats (although that would be nice), but our young players (i.e. Smoak) have needed to step up. For the past month or so, he has.

Kuma finally pitched FAIRLY well again, even though he left a lot of stuff up in the zone. So, thinking in the future, you've got Felix, Kuma, Walker, and hopefully Hultzen. Sounds good to me.

I dont know; I honestly don't think we are very far off, but hoping for the Mariners to actually put things together is a frightening thing to think about.