Draft lottery Thread - Mavs #10

ejs78 · Post #1 » by **ejs78** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:59 pm

Tue, May 16, 2023

With 20 games left I thought I would make a playoff thread for the WC

Basketball Reference-Mavs 5th seed w/ 77.8% chance to make playoffs
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

fivethirtyeight-Mavs 5th seed w/ 88% to make playoffs
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Tankathon-remaining strength of schedule is 22nd
https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Only game of importance tonight is:
Magic @ Pelicans

Should be a very stressful last 20 games.

Post #2 » by **Mavrelous** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:39 pm

Good idea
Main threat from below is GS, unless Wolves figure it out, PHX remain to be seen with Durant, but they are likely taking off to be 3rd/4th seed, Clippers will be main competition for 5th/6th/7th.

BliscoSantos · Post #3 » by **BliscoSantos** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:44 pm

With Kidd letting the Players figure it out instead of coaching them,telling them what to do, this teams iz more likely heading for a playin spot than 5 or 6 seed

ejs78 · Post #4 » by **ejs78** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:47 pm

My hate for the Lakers has me intrigued if they can make the play-in or not.

BBR says no and 538 yes as 9 seed which is about where I see them.

Post #5 » by **Mavrelous** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:04 pm

5h and 13th in the west are separated by 2 games in the loss column, 4th and 13th are separated by 3, amazing, every game counts.

ejs78 · Post #6 » by **ejs78** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:57 am

Lebron is going to be out multiple weeks.

This could very easily be one less team to worry about.

kacey ring · Post #7 » by **kacey ring** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:24 pm

ejs78 wrote:Lebron is going to be out multiple weeks.

This could very easily be one less team to worry about.

A bigger load for Davis will probably have him missing a handful of games too. Be curious to see if their role players can step up.

ejs78 · Post #8 » by **ejs78** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 3:22 pm

Kind of a big day of WC teams facing each other:

Lakers @ Grizz (-9.5)
Kings @ Thunder (+2.5)
Spurs @ Jazz (-9.5)
Blazers @ Warriors (-4.5)
Wolves @ Clippers (-6.5)

Mr B · Post #9 » by **Mr B** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:57 pm

kacey ring wrote:
ejs78 wrote:Lebron is going to be out multiple weeks.

This could very easily be one less team to worry about.

A bigger load for Davis will probably have him missing a handful of games too. Be curious to see if their role players can step up.

Davis has also never shown the ability to lead a team to the playoffs on his own.

Post #10 » by **Mavrelous** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 4:27 am

Spurs beat Utah LMAO, LAL lost, Dubs looks like they'll lose.

kacey ring · Post #11 » by **kacey ring** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 4:35 am

I think we will barely win enough to make play-in. I think we’ll get more help from some combination of the teams below losing compared to us just winning on our own.

Biggest factors:
1. Zion return and impact for Pelicans. Seems like he may be another 1-2 weeks out at minimum.
2. Jazz ability to keep it together and continue overachieving. Bad L to Spurs.
3. Lakers rallying without LBJ for an extended period. Not a good start with loss to Grizz.
4. Towns return and Timberwolves finding a rhythm to finish the season

kacey ring · Post #12 » by **kacey ring** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 5:00 am

Also, realistically how many more games will we win? We’re 2-8 on the second game of a back to back this year. We have three more of those to end the year.

Also, I feel the Mavs got a crappy schedule. 10 out of our 13 of the second game of a B2B have been/will be on the road. Yay!!

Decent chance we finish under .500.

Games I’m confident we can win:
3/7 vs Jazz
3/15 @ Spurs
3/24 vs Hornets
3/26 @ Hornets
4/7 vs Bulls
4/9 vs Spurs

Toss ups:
3/13 vs Grizzlies
3/17 @ Lakers

Potential losses:
3/2 vs 76ers
3/5 vs Suns
3/8 @ Pelicans (2nd game of B2B)
3/11 @ Grizzlies
3/20 @ Grizzlies
3/22 vs Warriors
3/27 @ Pacers (2nd game of B2B)
3/29 @ 76ers
4/1 @ Heat
4/2 @ Hawks (2nd game of B2B)
4/5 vs Kings

Post #13 » by **Mavrelous** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 5:24 am

PO is a low probabilty right now, GSW will not give up 6th spot, they just 23 pt deficit to 17 pt lead.

Post #14 » by **Mavrelous** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 5:26 am

A 7 way tie from 5th to 11th is a total possibility in the west.

Forbes · Post #15 » by **Forbes** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 5:38 am

Lol I’m loving the west right now. Very Suspenseful but I hope we pick it up

ejs78 · Post #16 » by **ejs78** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 2:54 pm

Mavs are down to 6th in both projections:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

3/1 Key Games
Suns @ Hornets (+9.5)
Grizz @ Rockets (+9.5)

These 2 matter the most as 1 team will fall further behind for the time being
Lakers @ Thunder (-1.5)
Pelicans @ Blazers (-1.5)

Ni Da Ye · Post #17 » by **Ni Da Ye** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 5:40 pm

Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Apz · Post #18 » by **Apz** » Thu Mar 2, 2023 3:51 am

Ni Da Ye wrote:Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Why? Its not likely we keep the pick so what u gain from missing po? Just joy for u and ozwizard

Ni Da Ye · Post #19 » by **Ni Da Ye** » Thu Mar 2, 2023 5:03 am

Apz wrote:
Ni Da Ye wrote:Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Why? Its not likely we keep the pick so what u gain from missing po? Just joy for u and ozwizard

I gain from having to not suffer from my beloved mavs being swept.

41Dirk41 · Post #20 » by **41Dirk41** » Thu Mar 2, 2023 6:15 am

Apz wrote:
Ni Da Ye wrote:Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Why? Its not likely we keep the pick so what u gain from missing po? Just joy for u and ozwizard

Haters gonna hate.