OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012

[5DOM]

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/08/31/ja ... om-darvish

BALTIMORE - While the bullpen burned in Baltimore, general manager Alex Anthopoulos was in Japan looking for talent for next season.

Anthopoulos was scouting World Baseball Classic sensation Yu Darvish. The 6-foot-5, 185 lbs. right-hander is with the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish, 25, picked up his 16th win Tuesday night in front of major-league scouts. He has a 16-4 record with a 1.54 ERA walking 27 and striking out 206 in 175 innings.

A year ago he was 12-8 with a 1.78, walking 47 and striking out 222 in 202 innings. The New York Yankees are also interested.

[Back2back2back]

OMG he would look great in our rotation!!

Watched some highlights and he has filthy stuff!!

Get er done AA!

[hyper316]

yes, AA has Darvish in the radar. my dream offseason is Darvish + Votto

[Randle McMurphy]

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/08/31/jays-gm-scouting-japanese-phenom-darvish

BALTIMORE - While the bullpen burned in Baltimore, general manager Alex Anthopoulos was in Japan looking for talent for next season.

Anthopoulos was scouting World Baseball Classic sensation Yu Darvish. The 6-foot-5, 185 lbs. right-hander is with the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish, 25, picked up his 16th win Tuesday night in front of major-league scouts. He has a 16-4 record with a 1.54 ERA walking 27 and striking out 206 in 175 innings.

A year ago he was 12-8 with a 1.78, walking 47 and striking out 222 in 202 innings. The New York Yankees are also interested.

AA wouldn't go all the way to Japan if he wasn't serious about Darvish. Might we actually sign a big time FA this offseason?

[Wo1verine]

If so, i hope it's not him. Too much loot, and not enough games vs MLB talent.. I rather go the trade route when it comes to SP's.

[baulderdash77]

Darvish is the biggest pitching prize this year by far. He's a break the bank contract but I think he's going to be worth it.

If our rotation going into next season is Romero, Darvish, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez then we're very close to contending IMO. Really we're just a closer away.

I hope it happens.

[Wo1verine]

I'd hate to overpay Darvish and not have enough flexibility to sign Fielder. Lucky for me the Yankees are also interested.

[J.Kim]

I'd hate to overpay Darvish and not have enough flexibility to sign Fielder. Lucky for me the Yankees are also interested.

I don't see how they're mutually exclusive. If the Roger's' wallet is actually open as people are reporting it to be, he should easily be able to sign both. If not, AA is financially savvy enough, he could easily convince them that the marketing revenue from Japan alone would far outsize and dwarf whatever they would have to pay to get his services.

Here are some other posts about Darvish that I've made in the past on here before (so it answers some similar questions on here that I've responded to in the past):

Is it really worth 50-70 million just to talk to Yu Darvish ? Another 50 million over 6 years to sign him ?

I think the posting fee will be in the higher range, maybe even surpassing $70 Mil if the Red Sox or the Yankees decide to join in on the auction.

From a financial perspective, it's worth it. The advertising revenues and interest from Japan will far exceed that posting fee mark. He'd be the biggest star to come to North America since Ichiro (his popularity surpasses Daisuke's).

As for whether it'd be worth it from a baseball perspective, it depends on which number you look at. If you lump in the posting fee with the salary, obviously it wouldn't be worth it. However, if you took the posting fee as a sunk cost (which you should), and consider that he'd sign for $50 Mil over 6 years, I think he'd be well worth the contract. His numbers and peripherals look far better than Daisuke's did during his time in the NPB, and even Daisuke's time in the majors would've been pretty much worth his contract value (6-years, $52 Mil) if it wasn't for his injury-ridden 2009 season.

I'm not sure you can expect Darvish to be an elite pitcher in this league, but if he can put up reasonably good production (3-4 WAR), he'll easily be worth the money considering everything else he'd bring to the organization.

Reports from Japan make it seem like he's certainly got the stuff and the make-up to be an elite pitcher in the league. He's got plus command, plus control, and an array of pitches that no one in the MLB can match that he can throw from average to plus, plus. A fastball that sits at 92-95, two-seam, curveball, slider, forkball, change-up and a shuuto. Plus, he recently went on a 46-inning scoreless streak and is currently 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 107/10 K/BB (!!!!!) over 92 innings.

It might be a bit of hype thrown out there by scouts and maybe I'm being too optimistic that the transition would go smoothly, but considering the control and command he's shown in the NPB, I'd like to think that he could be a 4-5 WAR guy in the MLB at the very least. (and I do fully realize how naive and foolish that makes me sound, but I really believe that he'll have a successful transition over to the MLB)

apart from health concerns, that strikeout rate is what worries me the most, its pretty unimpressive for a guy that is supposed to have great command of a wide arsenal of pitches. A 9.9 K/9 translates into probably less than 7 K/9 in the major leagues

I think that's more a function of how Pitchers are treated in the NPB more than anything. Since it's a once-a-week start system and because of the ground-up baseball culture there (where they believe Pitchers are supposed to leave it all out there in every single game and sacrifice for the team, even to the extent of injury), pitchers seem to have heavy workloads in the NPB. Darvish frequently pitches well in to 130-140 pitches every game. That's a bit ridiculous. There's a lot of belief out there that if you limit him to 100-110 pitches per game, he could be more economical with his pitches and even ratchet up his fastball 1-2 MPH (which he has done in the WBC, I believe he was often clocked at 97-98 MPH when he started for Japan, where they limited his pitch count).

Plus, not entirely sure that 10 K/9 in the NPB would translate over into just 7 K/9 in the MLB. I mean, after all a strike is a strike, and Japanese/Korean batters are much more patient in their plate approach than their American counterparts.

The injury aspect does worry me though (as does just about any Japanese pitching import)

Only one Japanese starting pitcher has ever been elite for a period, though, and that was Hideo Nomo (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... _pitchers/).

If Darvish is, he'll be bucking the trend. That doesn't mean he won't be worth the money some team will give him when everything is taken into account, but the Jays have to keep in mind that they likely aren't paying for an elite major league pitcher.

I guess that's true to an extent. Even the top pitchers in the league at the time like Daisuke turned out to be nothing more than #2-3s here.

But the difference in Yu Darvish is that what he's doing in the NPB is unprecedented. He's by far the best pitcher in the NPB and widely considered the best since Masaichi Kaneda who played in a pitcher's era in the 50s (and there's quite a large subset of people who consider him to be the greatest pitcher of all time in the NPB already). He's on route to become the first pitcher in the NPB ever to post a sub-2 ERA in five consecutive seasons and has a career ERA that is just above 2. Daisuke and Hideo Nomo weren't even close to that mark. (Bear with me for using ERA as a barometer, NPB doesn't keep track of advanced statistics)

Considering his pedigree, if I were a betting man, I'd wager a large sum of money that he'd be at least a 4-5 WAR guy here in the MLB (barring injury, of course)

As you can tell, I am in love with Yu Darvish as a player and would absolutely love to have him on the Jays

[Randle McMurphy]

I'd hate to overpay Darvish and not have enough flexibility to sign Fielder. Lucky for me the Yankees are also interested.

Again, they have $36.1M committed in payroll next season. If Rogers can spend as much as they say, it really shouldn't be a problem to sign two players at that level.

[Kurtz]

Ok, so if the extra revenue from Japan offsets the posting fee, then the real cost for him is 8-9 mil a year? That's a no-brainer...

[Garmfay]

Good thing about Darvish is that he doesn't come at a price of a 1st round pick. Bigger bonus for AA. I'd brake the bank for him, we need a real ace to contend.

Darvish + 1 of Votto/Fielder/Pujols = Contenders 2012

[Schad]

Ok, so if the extra revenue from Japan offsets the posting fee, then the real cost for him is 8-9 mil a year? That's a no-brainer...

The only consideration is that the posting fee is an up-front cost, whereas the increased revenue will come in a little more gradually. Still a good business decision (especially if we play a few playoff appearances), but one that might provoke a gulp or two from the people writing the cheques. However, a business that doesn't see it as sensible to spend $50m right now to get $65-80m* (a pretty healthy 6-8% annual ROI) over the next five years shouldn't be in business.



I'm extrapolating out from this article; the Sox would have made roughly $55m by his estimate over five years if Matsuzaka hadn't started sucking, and we'll be six years of price inflation in baseball along from that point. Thus, the posting fee can be compared to the revenues simply signing him should generate, and it looks a winner. His salary above and beyond that should be compared to the revenues above and beyond that we'd get from being good...and that, too, should come out well ahead.

[J.Kim]

Ok, so if the extra revenue from Japan offsets the posting fee, then the real cost for him is 8-9 mil a year? That's a no-brainer...

Considering how much the tabloids report about his life and just how popular he is overall (some would regard it to the likes of Ichiro's heyday in Japan), there should really be no cap on how much posting fee the Jays should pay for negotiation rights.

Consider this from the Seattle Business Report in 2005:

“the full value of Ichiro to the Mariners franchise is incalculable. … Ichiro is also front and center for the Mariners' marketing and advertising campaign, and thus he's closely tied to ticket sales. Ichiro's popularity in Japan was one of the key factors in Major League Baseball's $275 million deal to broadcast games in that country. And Ichiro continues to draw Japanese tourists to Seattle; 81,000 visited last year. …

In late 2003, the league signed its landmark, $275 million, six-year deal with Japanese advertising giant Dentsu Inc. for the rights to broadcast games in Japan, according to Street & Smith's SportsBusiness Journal, a sister publication. That deal marked a huge increase from the previous contract, valued at about $75 million over five years. Dentsu subleases the broadcasting rights to Japanese television networks NHK, Sky PerfecTV!, Tokyo Broadcasting System and Fuji TV.

In Japan, Ichiro is a Michael Jordan-esque sports celebrity with a massive following. All Mariners home games are broadcast in Japan, and MLB sells highlight-reel packages to television networks there. TV stations have been known to interrupt their programming to give updates on Ichiro's daily performance during the season.”

And this from a Mariners Fan forum:

Though the Mariners must split those revenues obtained from Japanese market equally with all 30 Major League teams, in 2004 they also enjoyed revenues from a half-dozen Japanese firms who bought advertisement at Safeco with the idea of marketing to Japanese audiences watching Mariner games.

That article in the Seattle Business Journal quoted Howard Lincoln as saying, "If there was no Ichiro, there would be no broadcast of games back to Japan, and none of these companies would be interested in Safeco Field."

Considering the cost of advertising space in Baseball stadiums:

But the premium space in baseball parks is behind home plate and that's where the Japanese companies want to book. Ads behind home plate are expensive because television cameras are constantly focused there as pitchers and batters duke it out.

Kennedy would not say how much the Sox charge, but advertising specialists said that an ad behind home plate at Fenway can cost as much as $300,000 for just a half inning. Those ads are displayed in rectangles cut into the wall behind the plate and change between innings.

At Rangers Ballpark in Arlington , where the Rangers play, a sign behind home plate costs between $120,000 and $160,000 per half inning, and that's if you buy a full season's worth of ads, said Alicia Nevins , the team's vice president of corporate sales.

Buying for just a few games, as did Dandy House Spa when the Sox played the Rangers April 6-8, costs more. Miura Co. , a Japanese water boiler manufacturer, is in discussions to advertise in the Rangers park, said Nevins.

And considering how a player like Darvish will drive up the advertising revenues through Japanese companies interested in advertising their products through the Jays and Darvish...

From a financial standpoint, even a $75M posting fee will be offset pretty easily by incremental revenues, I think; considering time value of money.

Hell, all the incremental revenues may even cover Darvish's contract which would probably be in the $10-11M range. (on an absolute basis though, not on a TVM basis)

[J.Kim]

Ok, so if the extra revenue from Japan offsets the posting fee, then the real cost for him is 8-9 mil a year? That's a no-brainer...

The only consideration is that the posting fee is an up-front cost, whereas the increased revenue will come in a little more gradually. Still a good business decision (especially if we play a few playoff appearances), but one that might provoke a gulp or two from the people writing the cheques. However, a business that doesn't see it as sensible to spend $50m right now to get $65-80m* (a pretty healthy 6-8% annual ROI) over the next five years shouldn't be in business.



I'm extrapolating out from this article; the Sox would have made roughly $55m by his estimate over five years if Matsuzaka hadn't started sucking, and i) their baseline was higher, and ii) we'll be six years of price inflation in baseball along from that point.

Ah, beat me to it. lol

Though yours post works out a lot better with a much more sensible comparison in Matsuzaka instead of Ichiro.

[Schad]

Ah, beat me to it. lol

Though yours post works out a lot better with a much more sensible comparison in Matsuzaka instead of Ichiro.

It's one of the absolute truths of RealGM: if you go to any trouble to make a post and don't refresh the thread after completing it, you'll discover upon hitting Submit that someone got there before you. Made two posts -- one here, one on the CA board -- a couple weeks ago that took 30-45 minutes each to source and write, only to find out that someone had gotten there 15 minutes earlier.

Yours does better at explaining why it's the case, though (the cost of the rotating billboards is fascinating; never would have guessed it was anywhere near that much, even in Fenway...Giant Glass must be loooooaded), and it does bear noting that even if they pay a $75m posting fee, their realistic worst-case is probably a fairly small loss.

[Lange]

Ok, so if the extra revenue from Japan offsets the posting fee, then the real cost for him is 8-9 mil a year? That's a no-brainer...

Considering how much the tabloids report about his life and just how popular he is overall (some would regard it to the likes of Ichiro's heyday in Japan), there should really be no cap on how much posting fee the Jays should pay for negotiation rights.

Consider this from the Seattle Business Report in 2005:

“the full value of Ichiro to the Mariners franchise is incalculable. … Ichiro is also front and center for the Mariners' marketing and advertising campaign, and thus he's closely tied to ticket sales. Ichiro's popularity in Japan was one of the key factors in Major League Baseball's $275 million deal to broadcast games in that country. And Ichiro continues to draw Japanese tourists to Seattle; 81,000 visited last year. …

In late 2003, the league signed its landmark, $275 million, six-year deal with Japanese advertising giant Dentsu Inc. for the rights to broadcast games in Japan, according to Street & Smith's SportsBusiness Journal, a sister publication. That deal marked a huge increase from the previous contract, valued at about $75 million over five years. Dentsu subleases the broadcasting rights to Japanese television networks NHK, Sky PerfecTV!, Tokyo Broadcasting System and Fuji TV.

In Japan, Ichiro is a Michael Jordan-esque sports celebrity with a massive following. All Mariners home games are broadcast in Japan, and MLB sells highlight-reel packages to television networks there. TV stations have been known to interrupt their programming to give updates on Ichiro's daily performance during the season.”

And this from a Mariners Fan forum:

Though the Mariners must split those revenues obtained from Japanese market equally with all 30 Major League teams, in 2004 they also enjoyed revenues from a half-dozen Japanese firms who bought advertisement at Safeco with the idea of marketing to Japanese audiences watching Mariner games.

That article in the Seattle Business Journal quoted Howard Lincoln as saying, "If there was no Ichiro, there would be no broadcast of games back to Japan, and none of these companies would be interested in Safeco Field."

Considering the cost of advertising space in Baseball stadiums:

But the premium space in baseball parks is behind home plate and that's where the Japanese companies want to book. Ads behind home plate are expensive because television cameras are constantly focused there as pitchers and batters duke it out.

Kennedy would not say how much the Sox charge, but advertising specialists said that an ad behind home plate at Fenway can cost as much as $300,000 for just a half inning. Those ads are displayed in rectangles cut into the wall behind the plate and change between innings.

At Rangers Ballpark in Arlington , where the Rangers play, a sign behind home plate costs between $120,000 and $160,000 per half inning, and that's if you buy a full season's worth of ads, said Alicia Nevins , the team's vice president of corporate sales.

Buying for just a few games, as did Dandy House Spa when the Sox played the Rangers April 6-8, costs more. Miura Co. , a Japanese water boiler manufacturer, is in discussions to advertise in the Rangers park, said Nevins.

And considering how a player like Darvish will drive up the advertising revenues through Japanese companies interested in advertising their products through the Jays and Darvish...

From a financial standpoint, even a $75M posting fee will be offset pretty easily by incremental revenues, I think; considering time value of money.

Hell, all the incremental revenues may even cover Darvish's contract which would probably be in the $10-11M range. (on an absolute basis though, not on a TVM basis)

It's a very interesting study. I wonder what the difference is in economic impact on a pitcher vs an everyday player.

[Randle McMurphy]

Seems like the major suitors for Darvish would be the Yankees, Rangers, and Jays. I'm guessing a $50M posting fee bid would get him for sure?

[Avenger]

Seems like the major suitors for Darvish would be the Yankees, Rangers, and Jays. I'm guessing a $50M posting fee bid would get him for sure?

The Nationals are also probably major suitors and depending on who the new GM in Chicago is gonna be the Cubs could also see Darvish as a way to get their Ace that they've been looking for. The Angels locked up Weaver and they might not wanna make a long term commitment to Kendrys Morales so they could divert that money into bolstering an already awesome pitching staff?

We're kinda lucky the other big boys like the Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers etc are either tapped out financially or have other commitments in the near future.

50 million should get it done, teams probably learned their lesson with Dice K when the Red Sox bid 30 million more than the 2nd highest bid. It'll take another 50-60 to lock up the player himself and the total money should be about what CJ Wilson will get in the offseason. So the question should be do you want a relatively proven but older commodity in CJ or a younger but extremely risky Darvish who might have more upside?

[darth_federer]

100 mil for a pitcher whos never pitched in the MLB? Where do I sign?

[Randle McMurphy]

100 mil for a pitcher whos never pitched in the MLB? Where do I sign?

Fortunately for us, we have a GM that isn't close-minded and is willing to take risks.

The Nationals are also probably major suitors and depending on who the new GM in Chicago is gonna be the Cubs could also see Darvish as a way to get their Ace that they've been looking for. The Angels locked up Weaver and they might not wanna make a long term commitment to Kendrys Morales so they could divert that money into bolstering an already awesome pitching staff?

We're kinda lucky the other big boys like the Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers etc are either tapped out financially or have other commitments in the near future.

50 million should get it done, teams probably learned their lesson with Dice K when the Red Sox bid 30 million more than the 2nd highest bid. It'll take another 50-60 to lock up the player himself and the total money should be about what CJ Wilson will get in the offseason. So the question should be do you want a relatively proven but older commodity in CJ or a younger but extremely risky Darvish who might have more upside?

Either one would be a fine addition and would likely provide similar production (it would also mean Rogers actually opened up their pocket book for once on the major league side), but Darvish is intriguing for his potential as both a pitcher and revenue producer.