Should the jays trade Bautista for pitching?

[Al_Oliver]

Bautista to Atlanta for Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward

We'd have to add some sweetner, of course

Do the Braves need a 41 year old lefty specialist for their pen?

are you kidding? they would need to send us way more...

Hanson and Heyward are as good as Romero and Lawrie


AA would be all over Hanson/Heyward for Bautista if it were offered

Bautista has had 2 outstanding seasons in a row and is on a team friendly contract. Heyward has a world of potential.

[augustine]

What are you babbling about?

I'm not sure what part of my statement you disagree with, or do not understand, as your response lacks informative content. But, my point is fairly simple: AA's plan is to grow organically. By growing organically we will not be contenders for two-four years (ie., if we are banking on Gose, Hutch, D'Arnaud, Hech, Alvarez to be major league elites, this will not happen for years). In two-four years, Jose will be diminishing and his contract will be expiring. If Jose is diminishing by the time we will be contenders, we may as well trade him now for players that fit our timeframe. Thus, on AA's plan, we may as well trade Jose now.

Now, many fans think we are in a win-now, 2012 is the year mode. By this reasoning we should keep Bautista. But, we are not in a win-now, 2012 is the year mode. (Perhaps you think we have a chance this year. If so, I cannot help you that much, other than to say that every team ahead of the Jays has stayed the same or improved (in some cases drastically) while the Jays have not tangibly improved. So, it stands to reason that those who were in front of the Jays last year will remain in front of the Jays this year.) Now, AA wants the crowds to keep coming, so he doesn't want people to know that we aren't really in a win now mode, so he doesn't trade Jose.

So, the clearest and most authentic extension of AA's stated strategy would be to trade Jose, but he wont do that because he wants the fans to keep coming and thinking we may win this year, even though he knows full well that is not the plan. This is the situation I was explaining.

Which part is still not clear for you?

[augustine]

Why would you trade your best player when the team is on the cusp of sustainable contention? Especially when that player is locked up for 4 more years at below market rates. The Jays would have to be knocked of their feet by an offer to even consider it.

If it were a 70 win team with no hope of contention, sure. But it's probably a ~85 win team now, with lots of room for organic improvement in the near future.

This off season has made it clear that AA's timeline is not 2012-2013. AA has repeatedly not signed players that were available and that would help with a 2012-2013 timeline. Moreover, AA has repeatedly not traded minor league assets for players who could help win now (do you really think Toronto couldn't have offered more for Darvish, Pineda or Gonzalez or ...). So, I reject your premise that we are on the cusp of sustainable contention. If we are not on the cusp of sustainable contention, then it makes sense to trade your elite 32 year old for a couple of 25 year olds.

This is an 81 win team right now. That is last years number. We need to pick up ten games to even be in the hunt. We have added one key piece (Santos). Meanwhile every team ahead of the Jays has stayed the same or made improvements, so there is no reason to suspect the Jays will compete. Yes, the Jays have the ability for organic growth, but every team has the capability for organic growth. That is not a strategy to build a contender on. Yes, the Jays could compete if everything falls in place, but most teams can compete if everything falls into place. That isn't a good strategy either

[LBJSeizedMyID]

I am in the camp that we have a team that can compete, but also realize that AA is in the peculiar spot of not knowing exactly where our team stands. Guys like Snider/Lind/Hill didn't exactly step up this year like was expected. So AA traded for Rasmus and Johnson, thinking they'd be clear upgrades on paper which wasn't necessarily the case. Had Rasmus and Johnson turned their seasons around once they came to the Jays, I actually think we would've seen a lot more moves.

So he goes into this season with a lot of question marks, however these question marks are potential wild cards for rebound/big seasons. He improved the team without actually blocking these guys, giving them a clear shot at rebounding. The Jays ranked in the top 10 in homeruns and RBI's the past couple years, while their bullpen last year was atrocious from the eighth inning and later (hence the Oliver/Frasor/Santos acqusisitions) which was where the bulk of their money was spent on this offseason.

The only one I question is Adam Lind, who he must know something we don't (injury?) as I think most fans kind of know what he is. Grant it he was looking like a great candidate to rebound over the first half, but something happened during the second half. Still, if you look at his hitting charts, there wasn't many places you could beat him with a pitch as he actually made better contact then I thought (biggest weakness was low and outside).

We're about to enter year three since AA has taken over. I usually give GM's five years (except for basketball) to see what their plan is. While there are GM's who baffle you with what the moves they make, I see why AA is doing or not doing these moves. I get it that its frustrating to the casual fans, but give the man some time to do his job.

If he were to go all in this year, sure the casual fans will show up. But what if the Jays end up in the same position third/fourth in the AL? Do you actually think these fans would continue going to games? No, the first thing they'll do is abandon ship because in reality if you're not a Leafs fan, most people that goto games just want to be seen. They'd be the first to jump off the wagon which would effectively lead to another painfully slow rebuild or patch jobs which tend not to work (ie. JP Riccardi).

[UN-Owen]

Granted, not "grant it"

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Thank you.

[UN-Owen]

Thank you.

If you edit your post, then I can delete my correction

And the two of us can act as though this never happened

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Nah, more fun this way

[Lateral Quicks]

This off season has made it clear that AA's timeline is not 2012-2013. AA has repeatedly not signed players that were available and that would help with a 2012-2013 timeline. Moreover, AA has repeatedly not traded minor league assets for players who could help win now (do you really think Toronto couldn't have offered more for Darvish, Pineda or Gonzalez or ...). So, I reject your premise that we are on the cusp of sustainable contention. If we are not on the cusp of sustainable contention, then it makes sense to trade your elite 32 year old for a couple of 25 year olds.

This is an 81 win team right now. That is last years number. We need to pick up ten games to even be in the hunt. We have added one key piece (Santos). Meanwhile every team ahead of the Jays has stayed the same or made improvements, so there is no reason to suspect the Jays will compete. Yes, the Jays have the ability for organic growth, but every team has the capability for organic growth. That is not a strategy to build a contender on. Yes, the Jays could compete if everything falls in place, but most teams can compete if everything falls into place. That isn't a good strategy either

Re: 2012-2013 not being the timeline, I disagree. In 2012 they will need some of their younger players to break and/or some teams better on paper to falter. In 2013, however, their young players will have another full year under their belts and should be better for it. I would be very surprised if AA doesn't go for it in 2013.

Re: organic growth, I disagree that all teams have this potential. Look at the Yankees, for example. Their core players are unlikely to get better; I'd say it's more likely they'll decline. And I'd argue their decline outweighs any improvement from their younger players. Therefore no net growth for them. This Jays team is loaded with young talent, and more is on the way. There is huge upside with this group.

Yes, it was an 81 win team last year. But I would say three things. First, it was an 85 win team the year before with similar personnel. Second, we all know too well of the crapfest that was the first half of the season. That won't happen this year, with the occasional exception of Mathis. Third, the bullpen is much improved. All told, I'd say it's realistic to peg this team at 85+ wins right now. And in that territory, you simply don't trade your best player unless you're absolutely knocked off your feet.

Just because AA didn't make a big free agent acquisition doesn't mean we should give up on the next two years. Sure, I would have liked a Pujols or Darvish, but I'm not about to throw in the towel.

[augustine]

So he goes into this season with a lot of question marks, however these question marks are potential wild cards for rebound/big seasons.

I will agree that if most of Rasmus, Johnson, Lind, Snider, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek rebound from an off year, while at the same time most of Lawrie, Escobar, Arencibia, Thames, Santos, Alvarez, remain constant, then we can contend. But if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. I just don't see all of that happening. It is more likely that some will do better than last year, while others do worse than last year. AA likes upside, and so he drafts for it, and so our team is full of a players who could be amazing if they pull it all together. But that is a big if. Had AA gone out and acquired some consistent pieces, then we wouldn't need Johnson, Rasmus, etc... to have a good year. As it stands, we do.

Lateral Quicks wrote:

"Just because AA didn't make a big free agent acquisition doesn't mean we should give up on the next two years. Sure, I would have liked a Pujols or Darvish, but I'm not about to throw in the towel."

I'm not saying we throw in the towel on the next two years. But, if possible, we should align our talent up so it peaks at the same time. What good is it for Jose to be good now, but tail off by the time Gose/Hech/Hutch are ready. And then, when they are ready Morrow and Rasmus are leaving via free agency, so we never really improve. Unfortunately Jose seems to have the position that Willie Upshaw or perhaps Jesse Barfield had - they get fans excited during the upswing, but are not around when we go to the show.

[BobbyBoy]

Oh by the way, snider is on his last option or something like that. AA, in his interview on prime time sports said that this is a do or die season for snider. AA said that if snider isn't on our 25 man roster then he's gonna be on another teams. Check out the audio on fan590.com.

[BobbyBoy]

What are you babbling about?

I'm not sure what part of my statement you disagree with, or do not understand, as your response lacks informative content. But, my point is fairly simple: AA's plan is to grow organically. By growing organically we will not be contenders for two-four years (ie., if we are banking on Gose, Hutch, D'Arnaud, Hech, Alvarez to be major league elites, this will not happen for years). In two-four years, Jose will be diminishing and his contract will be expiring. If Jose is diminishing by the time we will be contenders, we may as well trade him now for players that fit our timeframe. Thus, on AA's plan, we may as well trade Jose now.

Now, many fans think we are in a win-now, 2012 is the year mode. By this reasoning we should keep Bautista. But, we are not in a win-now, 2012 is the year mode. (Perhaps you think we have a chance this year. If so, I cannot help you that much, other than to say that every team ahead of the Jays has
stayed the same or improved (in some cases drastically) while the Jays have not tangibly improved. So, it stands to reason that those who were in front of the Jays last year will remain in front of the Jays
this year.) Now, AA wants the crowds to keep coming, so he doesn't want people to know that we aren't really in a win now mode, so he doesn't trade Jose.

So, the clearest and most authentic extension of AA's stated strategy would be to trade Jose, but he wont do that because he wants the fans to keep coming and thinking we may win this year, even though he knows full well that is not the plan. This is the situation I was explaining.

Which part is still not clear for you?

I couldn't agree more. I think, now that Jose has proven that he can hit over 40 homers and have a good average we should get some great prospects. I think there's only 2 options AA has and that is get stud prospects, or some young good talent. I not sure what kind of great prospects are out there.

[Randle McMurphy]

There is no value to be gained in trading Jose Bautista for prospects. If you're going to do something like trading perhaps the most valuable player in baseball, you better be damn sure that the team has no chance of contending for the foreseeable future and that the players you get back in such a trade are going to be major contributors. There's no reason to think the Jays will make such a move right now.

[BobbyBoy]

There is no value to be gained in trading Jose Bautista for prospects. If you're going to do something like trading perhaps the most valuable player in baseball, you better be damn sure that the team has no chance of contending for the foreseeable future and that the players you get back in such a trade are going to be major contributors. There's no reason to think the Jays will make such a move right now.

Are you crazy?!?! It would be the biggest fluke if the jays are playing for a playoff spot in september. Were not close to contending, so if we can get some really good prospects we should do it. And also your crazy if you think we won't get more value for Jose bautista! Your just another fan that wants to win now, and, any gm in the league does not just want to make the playoffs, they want to win the world series, and im 90% sure the jays won't win the world series.

[augustine]

There is no value to be gained in trading Jose Bautista for prospects. If you're going to do something like trading perhaps the most valuable player in baseball, you better be damn sure that the team has no chance of contending for the foreseeable future and that the players you get back in such a trade are going to be major contributors. There's no reason to think the Jays will make such a move right now.

I actually agree that it makes no sense to trade the best player in baseball. My argument is that the logical extension of AA's philosophy is to trade the best player in baseball. Thus, my real concern is that AA's slow and steady approach makes no sense at this point in the life of the Blue Jays, given that they are only a couple of pieces away, and given that they can afford big spending, and given that the fanbase will return in a major fashion if AA spent now. AA's decision to act like a small market team - when everyone knows that is not true, no matter how much Rogers insists it is - is my main concern.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

There is no value to be gained in trading Jose Bautista for prospects. If you're going to do something like trading perhaps the most valuable player in baseball, you better be damn sure that the team has no chance of contending for the foreseeable future and that the players you get back in such a trade are going to be major contributors. There's no reason to think the Jays will make such a move right now.

Are you crazy?!?! It would be the biggest fluke if the jays are playing for a playoff spot in september. Were not close to contending, so if we can get some really good prospects we should do it. And also your crazy if you think we won't get more value for Jose bautista! Your just another fan that wants to win now, and, any gm in the league does not just want to make the playoffs, they want to win the world series, and im 90% sure the jays won't win the world series.

Randle's sometimes crazy, but you're just dilusional if you think the Jays aren't close to contending.

[BobbyBoy]

There is no value to be gained in trading Jose Bautista for prospects. If you're going to do something like trading perhaps the most valuable player in baseball, you better be damn sure that the team has no chance of contending for the foreseeable future and that the players you get back in such a trade are going to be major contributors. There's no reason to think the Jays will make such a move right now.

Are you crazy?!?! It would be the biggest fluke if the jays are playing for a playoff spot in september. Were not close to contending, so if we can get some really good prospects we should do it. And also your crazy if you think we won't get more value for Jose bautista! Your just another fan that wants to win now, and, any gm in the league does not just want to make the playoffs, they want to win the world series, and im 90% sure the jays won't win the world series.

Randle's sometimes crazy, but you're just dilusional if you think the Jays aren't close to contending.

What gives you hope? Almost everyone is a question mark.
1. Escobar: good, but can't make this team win yet.
2. Thames/snider: we don't know what both can do in a full year in the MLB
3. Bautista: great player, can't help us win yet.
4. Lind: needs to prove something. That something is can he repeat his year from 2009.
5. Encarnacion: great at the end of last season, but can he do it for a full year.
6. Johnson: great in the first half of last year, but can he do it for a full year.
7. Rasmus: was awful last year. Has great potential,but can he form into the player he's supposed to be
8. Lawrie: great in his little time in MLB,But can he can he do somewhat what he did last year this year
9. Arencibia: great last, but can he repeat it

Starting Rotation:
1. Romero: great, and SHOULD improve.
2. Morrow: was great in his last 2 starts last year. Can he repeat it
3. Alvarez: good last year. Can he repeat it.
4. Cecil: was great 2 years ago. Awful last year. Can he get back to form.
5. Drabek/McGowan/Everyone else: drabek huge question mark, same as McGowan and everyone else.
Even If everyone has a great year, I don't think they are world series ready.

[satyr9]

Even If everyone has a great year, I don't think they are world series ready.

I'd just like to point out if the Jays had career years from everyone, not even expanding on what we think they could do, like Morrow or Drabek or Rasmus, just replicated seasons they've already had at least once (and in a few cases that meant using 85% of their best AAA season or 80% of AA for a few pitchers when they haven't had enough at MLB to count) and not looking at the 'pen or bench, the Jays have about 10WAR more than the Red Sox had last year out of their 9 starters (an ungodly 49ish WAR, but I was guesstimating a few things like Lind's best offense w/ his best defense and how it converts to WAR, but if you like take off 3-5 WAR overall) and 20.1 WAR out of the starters, good for 2nd in the AL in 2011 (0.1 behind CHW last year) and 3rd overall (still a ways behind PHI) and easily the best overall collection of stats that any team put up last year and maybe in the history of the modern game.

Of course that's never ever ever going to happen, but simply in response to the only line I quoted, if everyone had career years, they'd be the best team in baseball and probably without a serious competitor for the regular season. Of course, in any given year I'd hazard a guess that at least 12-15 teams could say the same thing if every single starter had a career year, so I'm not really saying much at all.

Just that maybe there was a bit of hyperbole in your post.

[flatjacket1]

What gives you hope? Almost everyone is a question mark.
1. Escobar: good, but can't make this team win yet.
2. Thames/snider: we don't know what both can do in a full year in the MLB
3. Bautista: great player, can't help us win yet.
4. Lind: needs to prove something. That something is can he repeat his year from 2009.
5. Encarnacion: great at the end of last season, but can he do it for a full year.
6. Johnson: great in the first half of last year, but can he do it for a full year.
7. Rasmus: was awful last year. Has great potential,but can he form into the player he's supposed to be
8. Lawrie: great in his little time in MLB,But can he can he do somewhat what he did last year this year
9. Arencibia: great last, but can he repeat it

Starting Rotation:
1. Romero: great, and SHOULD improve.
2. Morrow: was great in his last 2 starts last year. Can he repeat it
3. Alvarez: good last year. Can he repeat it.
4. Cecil: was great 2 years ago. Awful last year. Can he get back to form.
5. Drabek/McGowan/Everyone else: drabek huge question mark, same as McGowan and everyone else.
Even If everyone has a great year, I don't think they are world series ready.

If everybody has a great year I think we can make playoffs (world series is mainly luck, exhibit A: St. Louis) for sure.

That's just a huge if. Who at this time last offseason was saying "Oh yeah pencil in Lind for sub-300 OBP, Aaron Hill will be terrible, we will trade for Colby and he will be terrible, JPA will lose us runs in both halves of the inning, and Snider will be a joke"

Exactly. Nobody. Of course when you look at our lineup you are going to see what you expect out of them, but you have to realize that some won't make it. The number 1 prospect in 2010 (before the season) was Jason Heyward and he bombed in 2011 after an amazing 2010 season (If it can happen to him it can happen to Lawrie), and Bautista can easily regress to his 2010 level of season (like 5 WAR instead of 8) and such. The example are way too numerous. Somebody on this team next year will underperform. Chances are it will be more than just 1 player. It could be Romero, Bautista, Lawrie, Lind (again), Colby or whoever.

You just can't factor in our best possible output and ignore the fact that nothing goes as planned.

I think we are a true talent 84-86 win team, which puts us at about 10 wins away from playoffs. We are still several moves away from being there. (Just my opinion)

[Tyrone Slothrop]

6. Johnson: great in the first half of last year, but can he do it for a full year.
9. Arencibia: great last, but can he repeat it

4. Cecil: was great 2 years ago. Awful last year. Can he get back to form.

I don't disagree with the overall gist of your post, but you're off on these three points. Johnson was pretty bad all year last season, but was slightly better once he came to Toronto.
Arencibia's power made him serviceable, but anyone with a .282 OBP can hardly be called great.
Cecil's win-loss record 2 years ago masked his actual performance (ERA+ of 99, identical WHIP as 2011), which wasn't bad, but probably not good enough to be a starter on a team in a division with the Sox, Yanks and Rays.