Feel the Excitement: Jays @ Astros (Today - Some Other Time)

[flatjacket1]

Yankees have Nix, Nunez, Cervelli and Ben Francisco in their opening day lineup.

Yeah, and that had nothing to do with injuries to Jeter, Granderson and A-rod. It doesn't even matter. I don't even know why we need to compare this team to a financially crippled team.

Oh yeah your right, we don't have injuries.

[kwamebargnani]

You're right Three starting pitchers. My point still stands.

I consider all 3 front of the rotation starters. We then have Drabek, Hutch, Happ who all proved in some capacity they can pitch 120+ innings.

Then our bullpen is pretty nasty.

Then we have Reyes, Bautista, Edwin, Colby.

Yeah I think we are okay...

In what world, are Buerhle and Morrow front of the rotation starters? Morrow has shown signs of brilliance in the past but to say he is a front of the rotation starter right now is very unreasonable. MB and BM are both solid number 3 starters at best. And I find Drabek's name being mentioned hilarious.

[kwamebargnani]

Yankees have Nix, Nunez, Cervelli and Ben Francisco in their opening day lineup.

Yeah, and that had nothing to do with injuries to Jeter, Granderson and A-rod. It doesn't even matter. I don't even know why we need to compare this team to a financially crippled team.

Oh yeah your right, we don't have injuries.

Except JPA, Izturis, Melky and Lind are our actual starters.

[dagger]

Jays now tied for fifth worst record. Tyler Beede, come on down!

[C Court]

how do u blame AA really

I don't blame AA for players' decline. I just want a GM that actually has the ability to evaluate players. AA can't.

Yup.

It sure looks like AA was taken to the cleaners by the Marlins and Mets. No GM trades away top tier talent unless they know that what they have is on the decline. The Marlins couldn't win with these guys and Dickey is pushing 40.

Lets face it. There is no quick fix.

Luckily, I missed the game and saw We're The Millers instead (which was almost as bad as the Jays losing to the Astros).

[Randle McMurphy]

Nov. 13, 2012 (in a thread in which 220 out of 229 votes gave the Marlins deal at least a B):

AA had to swing for the fences if the Jays are to compete next season and this is it!

Give the deal an A. Have a feeling that AA is not done. Another shoe will drop.

Hindsight bias is fun.

[Wo1verine]

The SP is just awful even when guys were healthy they sucked.


Next year:

1 ?
2 ?
3 Morrow
4 Dickey
5 MB

Happ can move to the BP or GTFO and guys like Drabek or Hutch, Nolin, etc shouldn't be depended on if the goal is to win, especially if we can't upgrade the rotation. Need Top end SP.

We have a potential # 1 or 2 in Morrow (if he can ever stay healthy) , but the rest are middling at this point.

[C Court]

Nov. 13, 2012 (in a thread in which 220 out of 229 votes gave the Marlins deal at least a B):

AA had to swing for the fences if the Jays are to compete next season and this is it!

Give the deal an A. Have a feeling that AA is not done. Another shoe will drop.

Hindsight bias is fun.

So what? On paper, AA made some moves that looked good from a 'fan's perspective'. He also made questionable moves like trading for RA and hiring Gibby.

Who f-ing cares that guys on RGM gave a deal an 'A'? Do you think that Alex will go into the Rogers offices at year end for his post mortem and say .... " I know this year has been a disaster, but Mustard Tiger loved my moves!"

Alex is not a fan. He's an MLB general manager who f--ck-d up this year like no other Blue Jay executive ever has. The GM needs to know better than random fans.

2012 was bad. 2013 was worse. And 2014 is not going to be much better.

BTW, its not hindsight. It's reporting reality, just like you did countless times when Colangelo's "good on paper" moves went awry.

[dagger]

The SP is just awful even when guys were healthy they sucked.


Next year:

1 ?
2 ?
3 Morrow
4 Dickey
5 MB

Happ can move to the BP or GTFO and guys like Drabek or Hutch, Nolin, etc shouldn't be depended on if the goal is to win, especially if we can't upgrade the rotation. Need Top end SP.

We have a potential # 1 or 2 in Morrow (if he can ever stay healthy) , but the rest are middling at this point.

They will have to gamble on one of the young guys/rehabbers for one spot, and sign or trade for another starter. I don't hold out much hope that free agency or trade will yield a 1 or 2, highly unlikely, so we are going to have to depend on a committee approach and hope each guy at least keeps us competitive into the sixth and occasionally seventh inning. I oppose trading any more good prospects for a starting pitcher. My alternative is to move away from the three year window concept by trading Bautista for a high end MLB ready or near ready prospect.

[Randle McMurphy]

So what? On paper, AA made some moves that looked good from a 'fan's perspective'. He also made questionable moves like trading for RA and hiring Gibby.

Actually, they looked good from everybody's perspective (including yours, it seems). There's a reason nearly every objective baseball analyst out there was picking the Jays to at least make the postseason (and that reason would be the significant talent upgrade the team made on paper).

Who f-ing cares that guys on RGM gave a deal an 'A'? Do you think that Alex will go into the Rogers offices at year end for his post mortem and say .... " I know this year has been a disaster, but Mustard Tiger loved my moves!"

Alex is not a fan. He's an MLB general manager who f--ck-d up this year like no other Blue Jay executive ever has. The GM needs to know better than random fans.

This argument is a funny one. Your reasoning for why it's fair to criticize a GM in hindsight for making moves that made sense/that you loved at the time is that the fans (including yourself) know nothing and are in no real position to judge any move that a team makes. If that's your position, why would we take your opinion on this team now any more seriously than you did when you were vehemently shouting praises for Anthopoulos and his decisions? What has changed (other than you now shifting into childish whining mode about anything and everything Blue Jays)? If what you say is true here, your opinion now would be just as worthless as it was then.

BTW, its not hindsight. It's reporting reality, just like you did countless times when Colangelo's "good on paper" moves went awry.

Actually, ripping a GM after the fact for moves that you loved at the time while now pretending they were somehow doomed for failure from the beginning is pretty much the definition of hindsight bias.

As for Colangelo, I would have loved it if he had actually made countless good moves on paper. The organization might not be in such dire straits currently if he had done that. His problem were that those moves were quite countable indeed (and very infrequent compared to the ones that made no sense at all unless you thought mediocrity was a goal to be aspired to).

[BigLeagueChew]

1. Jose Reyes (S) SS
2. Rajai Davis (R) CF
3. Edwin Encarnacion (R) 1B
4. Brett Lawrie (R) 3B
5. Mark DeRosa (R) DH
6. J.P. Arencibia (R) C
7. Moises Sierra (R) RF
8. Kevin Pillar (R) LF
9. Ryan Goins (L) 2B

[C Court]

Actually, they looked good from everybody's perspective (including yours, it seems). There's a reason nearly every objective baseball analyst out there was picking the Jays to at least make the postseason (and that reason would be the significant talent upgrade the team made on paper).

So what? Those same experts predicted the Marlins would be a playoff team two years ago. SI predicted the Raps would go to the NBA Finals after signing Hakeem. Pro GM's should be smarter than pundits.

If what you say is true here, your opinion now would be just as worthless as it was then.

You think my opinion is worthless. You're probably right. Being wrong about the Jays is no big deal to me. I know that I'm a fan, who comments from a fan's perspective. Period. But I expect the Blue Jays GM to make better decisions than a fan.

On the other hand, this is some pretty damn serious sheet in your internet world. Now, if you're such a brilliant MLB forum/analyst, then why (after all these supposed great moves were made which you agreed with) do the Blue Jays have the fifth most losses in the league? Maybe your opinions are worthless too?

What has changed (other than you now shifting into childish whining mode about anything and everything Blue Jays)?

Quite funny coming from a guy who, for years, has childishly whined about everything Raptors/Colangelo, while being banned from said forum for throwing tantrums.

As for Colangelo, I would have loved it if he had actually made countless good moves on paper

There are a lot parallels between Alex and Bryan. Yet you give AA a pass. It's quite amusing to hear Alex say that talent is not an issue - almost the same phrase used by Colangelo. The difference is that some of Bryan's teams have actually finished in first place.

Look, it doesn't matter who was right and who was wrong about the Jays. Fact is that the Blue Jays are a mess and Alex was the architect of that mess. So it is fair game to point out the facts. For god sakes, the Jays are 16 games under 500. You can't sugar coat it.

Alex was wrong. The pundits were wrong. I was wrong. You were wrong. Deal with it.

[Nolan]

If we lose today this will be the first time the Astros have swept a series at home in 15 months...

[Lateral Quicks]

While AA's overall body of work to date is still good, many of his recent moves have been poor:

1. Trading multiple prospects for an AAAA type starter, then compounding the error by signing him to a two-year extension for big dollars. (I was against at the time).

2. Trading two elite prospects for an aging knuckleballer. (I was against at the time)

3. Signing a guy who was slightly above replacement level before he went on the juice. (I was lukewarm at the time)

4. Terrible roster management (e.g. promoting Romero early, giving Nolin a random spot-start).

5. Sticking with players who clearly do not cut the mustard (e.g. Vizquel, Bonifacio, JoJo) for far too long. Hell, even Arencibia is expected back next year according to some people.

6. Hiring rookie coaches in a year he wanted to contend, and demoting Murphy. I'm fine with Gibby, but you don't hire rookie coaches to handle a veteran team (and I say this as a fan of Mottola). Not only that, instead of firing Murphy, he demoted him and kept him on the staff.

If he doesn't make some solid moves in the off-season to turn this team around, he will deservedly be fired.

[akakalakin]

Morrow as a 1 or 2?
only if no one has heard Gibby saying 'that's how it goes" on a daily basis when explaining our latest debacle

[akakalakin]

when was the last time you were in a year end review and your bosses said "well your resume looked good at the time and the years results don't matter, so we are not gonna look back in hindsight cause we thought you were brilliant - the results were god awful and millions of dollars are on the line here - indeed the future of the franchise, BUT WE"LL LET THIS GO and we'll review at same time next year"

[dagger]

I still like AA's drafting, and if he reverts to an organic build coming up behind the current roster - .i.e. giving this current roster, perhaps augmented slightly with a starter acquisition, one more try but without giving up any more prospects - I'm ready to see it through. Though I would change managers. It's not like I hate Gibbons, but he hasn't lit any fires either. I'd change pitching coaches for sure, because who among the starters has lived up to expectations. With the exception of Cecil in the bullpen, pretty much everyone has pitched at or below expectations, and any of the small surprises we had out of Buffalo callups could just as easily be attributed to Bob Stanley in Buffalo as Pete Walker.

I do have caveat or two with AA, like i'm not happy with his failure to sign his first rounder TWICE, comp picks or not (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me). And I wouldn't mind trading one core piece (Bautista?) to be competitive while the young guys at rookie league and short A work their way up and some new talent is laid in via the next draft where we could have two top 12 picks plus a fairly high second rounder, i.e three of the top 40.

I can't count on Drabek. He's a AAA pitcher until he shows otherwise, as is Romero, so it's going to be Morrow and Hutchinson and possibly an FA or trade acquisition joining Happ, Buehrle, Dickey as starters, with maybe Nolin or Stroman making the team as a backend starter/long reliever along with Esmail Rogers. The media is calling on ownership to see this through by going at least one more year with the current plan, adding as much as $20-30m in short term money to see it through, although it may take that much just to keep Rasmus and qualify Josh Johnson (or better, offer him a bit less and dare him to walk away). I hope ownership sees it that way, there is no reason with the money they made this year to go cheap.

The only sure thing I see is that we don't need the likes of Redmond and Wang to cobble together a somewhat better season next year. Can this outfit, with a little better health and perhaps one addition to the starting pitching, be competitive for a wildcard. I feel it might be possible but If the answer is no, then a complete rebuild will be in order. I'd go into the off-season ready to try this bunch for one more year, though if I were AA, I'd listen to trade offers for absolutely anyone not named Lawrie, and if the offers for core players like Bautista, EE and Reyes in terms of high end prospects (Advanced A and higher) were really good, I might be swayed to junk the status quo and move into an accelerated rebuild.

[akakalakin]

I still like AA's drafting, and if he reverts to an organic build coming up behind the current roster - .i.e. giving this current roster, perhaps augmented slightly with a starter acquisition, one more try but without giving up any more prospects - I'm ready to see it through. Though I would change managers. It's not like I hate Gibbons, but he hasn't lit any fires either. I'd change pitching coaches for sure, because who among the starters has lived up to expectations. With the exception of Cecil in the bullpen, pretty much everyone has pitched at or below expectations, and any of the small surprises we had out of Buffalo callups could just as easily be attributed to Bob Stanley in Buffalo as Pete Walker.

I do have caveat or two with AA, like i'm not happy with his failure to sign his first rounder TWICE, comp picks or not (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me). And I wouldn't mind trading one core piece (Bautista?) to be competitive while the young guys at rookie league and short A work their way up and some new talent is laid in via the next draft where we could have two top 12 picks plus a fairly high second rounder, i.e three of the top 40.

I can't count on Drabek. He's a AAA pitcher until he shows otherwise, as is Romero, so it's going to be Morrow and Hutchinson and possibly an FA or trade acquisition joining Happ, Buehrle, Dickey as starters, with maybe Nolin or Stroman making the team as a backend starter/long reliever along with Esmail Rogers. The media is calling on ownership to see this through by going at least one more year with the current plan, adding as much as $20-30m in short term money to see it through, although it may take that much just to keep Rasmus and qualify Josh Johnson (or better, offer him a bit less and dare him to walk away). I hope ownership sees it that way, there is no reason with the money they made this year to go cheap.

The only sure thing I see is that we don't need the likes of Redmond and Wang to cobble together a somewhat better season next year. Can this outfit, with a little better health and perhaps one addition to the starting pitching, be competitive for a wildcard. I feel it might be possible but If the answer is no, then a complete rebuild will be in order. I'd go into the off-season ready to try this bunch for one more year, though if I were AA, I'd listen to trade offers for absolutely anyone not named Lawrie, and if the offers for core players like Bautista, EE and Reyes in terms of high end prospects (Advanced A and higher) were really good, I might be swayed to junk the status quo and move into an accelerated rebuild.

do you honestly believe Morrow Hutch Happ Buehrle and Dickey will vault us into playoffs? hell even if you add a front liner to that group we won't win 85 games

[Lateral Quicks]

Priority #1 this offseason should be to get rid of Buerhle. In the AL East he tops out as a 4th starter, and it makes no sense to pay $19M for that kind of protection. Eat some salary and trade him to the National League, replace him with Happ/Hutch/Stroman/Nolin, and use the difference in salary to upgrade the team.

[Michael Bradley]

Priority #1 this offseason should be to get rid of Buerhle. In the AL East he tops out as a 4th starter, and it makes no sense to pay $19M for that kind of protection. Eat some salary and trade him to the National League, replace him with Happ/Hutch/Stroman/Nolin, and use the difference in salary to upgrade the team.

Buehrle, in additon to currently being the team's best starter, is also helping AA avoid the same mistake he made in 2012, which was counting on pitchers who were not ready. As overpaid as Buehrle is, he is a good bet for 200+ innings and league average production. That is not worth $18M and $19M over the next two seasons, but he is something the Jays desperately need. Trading him, eating up some salary, and then having to upgrade elsewhere AND replace Buehrle's production at the same time is pointless.

Hutchison had 90 innings above A+ last season, and 60 of those were in the Majors. He needs minor league innings and should not be counted on to start 2014 in the bigs. He just turned 23, so he has more than enough time to contribute mid-2014 and definitely in 2015. Stroman has 100 innings above A+, and Nolin has a little more than that. These guys can be counted on in 2014 by mid-season or so, but they still need more time. Drabek is a mystery. He wasn't very good when healthy, and now he is coming back from a 2nd Tommy John Surgery, which has a bad success rate (although he seems to have found some command post-surgery, for some reason). Those guys are depth guys, not guys you pencil into the rotation to begin the year.

Dickey and Buehrle are the two best starters on the team right now. Between them and a healthy Morrow (hopefully), you could win with those three. The other two spots are the concern. If the Jays can find someone in the baseball world that can fix Ricky Romero, it would make a world of difference to the rotation, but I'm afraid that might be a lost cause.