2011 Jays Off Season Discussion Thread

[dagger]

This can be superseded by an official thread later that will deal with trades, potential free agents, but right off the bat:

Who stays and who goes from the 2010 25-man roster, at least among potential free agents.

Obviously, Bautista stays, the only question being through arbitration or an extension

So of the rest...

Overbay
Molina
Buck
Downs
Gregg
Frasor
Encarnacion
Tallet
Accardo

My instant take is that we don't have a lot more prospects to add next season, more likely in 2012 when a couple of the infielders at New Hampshire this year move up. We also have more financial leeway with the Halliday/Ryan money gone and if we drop Downs, that's another $4 million, and likely no Overbay, so $35 million in payroll latitude minus raise to Bautista. Wells' salary this year plus the final bonus instalment was equal to his 2011 salary, but let's also take a worst case scenario that his bonus was handled off budget somehow so for calculating how much the team can spend we're stuck with a $12 million rise in his base pay. Furthermore, let's say his raise plus Bautista's $8 million worst case arb settlement eat up $20 million of the $35-37 million. And let's say the budget doesn't increase.

The Jays can keep their powder dry until they have more raises to give young players - as they did Romero although the impact of his deal (vs arb outcomes) is going to be negligible for a few more years.

But this minimum $15 million in leeway likely means some signings, either our own or other team's FA - transitional players until more younglings make it to starting jobs in the majors. And I've made worst case assumptions on salary, so $20 million may be a better number.

I'd like to start turning over the pen, so IMO, Downs, as much as I like him, has more value as picks. We can move Bautista to first or third, opening up RF for Snyder without any further payroll consequence. Barring trades, Hill, Lind, Escobar and Wells appear set. So that's six of nine regulars in the batting order. Lewis would be a seventh.

Biggest needs - A corner infielder or left fielder who can hit for average more so than power, ideally who helps us deal with our collective weakness against left handed pitching.

[hyper316]

the only one i want to see back from that list is Buck. The rest can leave and let new players learn on the job.

[evilRyu]

EE is a FA, and there is a team option on Molina, which (if Buck leaves), the Jays should be picking up

[DonYon]

I'd want to see both catchers back for obvious reasons, plus at least one of Gregg/Downs.
Downs is gonna be offered arbitration, I wouldn't care if he accepts it or not. Either way we really get a really good reliever or two draft picks.
Gregg has an option for... 4mil or something like that? I don't mind seeing him back either, just not as a closer.

[Randle McMurphy]

With Buck, it's simple. You offer arbitration, he'll decline, and then you let him go get a multi-year deal somewhere else. J.P. Arencibia needs to be starting for this team next season.

Molina's option will probably be picked up, but he's a backup catcher. They're interchangeable.

At 1B, I'd have no problem bringing Overbay back. But there might be better players available at similar dollars (Lee, Pena, Johnson), or just Lind.

If you don't bring E5 back (really, though, I'd be OK with tendering him a contract), Bautista should be moved to 3B. That would fill a significant hole in this organization and it's just much easier to fill an OF spot (either within or through FA).

I don't want to see Fred Lewis starting on this team next year, he's not good enough. Nor do I particularly want to see Snider in RF. He's a very good LF, but he hasn't shown he can play on the other side.

Downs is gone, Gregg's option probably gets picked up, and Frasor may be forced to return (not sure any team would be willing to give up a draft pick to sign him).

The team's biggest need is players who can take walks and get on base. Even a league average team OBP might have gotten them in the playoff race this season.

[Michael Bradley]

As of September 26, these are the classifications for our current FA's:

Downs (Type A)
Frasor (Type A)
Buck (Type B)
Gregg (Type B)
Overbay (not ranked)
Molina (not ranked)

Downs and Buck seem like safe bets to net multi-year deals from other teams, and I think the Jays will be more than happy to get a potential 1st and 2 comp picks for those two.

Frasor being Type A is a bit of a curse since a team is far less likely to sign him when they will have to give up a 1st round pick for him, so it wouldn't surprise me if Frasor accepts arbitration. Then again, stranger things have happened. If the Jays get 2 picks for Frasor, I'm sure they will be dancing. I think Gregg will be brought back. The bullpen depth is either young, inexperienced, or not good, so having stability (even mediocre stability) in the front of the bullpen isn't necessarily a bad thing. If they do decide to let Gregg loose, that is another comp pick.

Personally, I am all for bringing Manny in and moving Lind to 1B, as I do not want to shell out a long-term deal to Carlos Pena. Plus, a one year deal for Manny means the Jays would be primed for the potential Pujols/Fielder/Gonzalez 2012 free agent class if they want to pay top dollar for an elite 1B. Unlikely, but who knows.

Starting pitching is fine. The offense needs more OBP. I'd dump/trade EE and move Bautista to 3B where he becomes far more valuable. I do not want to bring Overbay back, even at a discounted rate. The Jays are never going to be taken seriously with that type of bat at a premium offensive position. Move on. The bullpen has a chance to be really, really bad, but too early to tell.

[WpgPage]

Overbay - non tendered will be gone
Molina - option picked up
Buck- offered arb will sign else ware
Downs - offered arb will sign else ware
Gregg - would expect 1 year of the 2 year option clause picked up
Frasor - offered arb, a team that has already signed a much higher ranked free agent may go ahead and sign Frasor especially if hes a 3rd or 4th signing. baring that he could come back on a 1 year deal
Encarnacion - non tendered thinking he may resign after that
Tallet - non tendered will be gone
Accardo - will probobly part ways with the jays not sure why the relationship went so south but oh well hes gone

[Randle McMurphy]

The Jays are never going to be taken seriously with that type of bat at a premium offensive position. Move on.

Premium offensive bats at 1B aren't exactly cheap to acquire.

Overbay, on the other hand, can be expected to put up a 2 WAR every season at a relatively cheap price. There are far worse things in the world than starting Lyle Overbay in 2011 (especially if you actually platoon him!).

[Rapcity_11]

As of September 26, these are the classifications for our current FA's:

Downs (Type A)
Frasor (Type A)
Buck (Type B)
Gregg (Type B)
Overbay (not ranked)
Molina (not ranked)

Downs and Buck seem like safe bets to net multi-year deals from other teams, and I think the Jays will be more than happy to get a potential 1st and 2 comp picks for those two.

Frasor being Type A is a bit of a curse since a team is far less likely to sign him when they will have to give up a 1st round pick for him, so it wouldn't surprise me if Frasor accepts arbitration. Then again, stranger things have happened. If the Jays get 2 picks for Frasor, I'm sure they will be dancing. I think Gregg will be brought back. The bullpen depth is either young, inexperienced, or not good, so having stability (even mediocre stability) in the front of the bullpen isn't necessarily a bad thing. If they do decide to let Gregg loose, that is another comp pick.

Personally, I am all for bringing Manny in and moving Lind to 1B, as I do not want to shell out a long-term deal to Carlos Pena. Plus, a one year deal for Manny means the Jays would be primed for the potential Pujols/Fielder/Gonzalez 2012 free agent class if they want to pay top dollar for an elite 1B. Unlikely, but who knows.

Starting pitching is fine. The offense needs more OBP. I'd dump/trade EE and move Bautista to 3B where he becomes far more valuable. I do not want to bring Overbay back, even at a discounted rate. The Jays are never going to be taken seriously with that type of bat at a premium offensive position. Move on. The bullpen has a chance to be really, really bad, but too early to tell.

Bautista does not become more valuable at 3B. He's a much better defender in RF.

[Randle McMurphy]

Bautista does not become more valuable at 3B.

He does, if only because of the difference in major-league depth at the two positions.

He's a much better defender in RF.

He's not really that good of a defender at either position.

[J-Roc]

Jays need to decide what direction they want to go in.

1) Manager. What style? Homerun hitting like Cito or average or small ball or what.

2) When do they want to compete? Does this season change anything? If so, maybe add to what we have. If not, try to move older pieces for younger pieces.

3) Internally, the Jays know more than we do. What's the deal with Hill, Lind, Snider and Arencibia (as a starting catcher)?

[OldNo7]

We need to strengthen our bullpen, especially with a few guys gone.

[Nolan]

Its going to be interesting to see what direction AA takes this team this winter. Do we continue with the youth movement or to do we try to build on this season by adding some extra pieces.

[Raptor_Guy]

I think it's time to start building forward, but I'm afraid AA might be passive and let too many guys go. I mean if we let go Frasor,Downs AND Gregg then how bad is our bullpen gonna be?

If the Jays add a big bat (which IS do-able, we have the resources) and re-tool the bullpen I don't see why this team can't compete next season.

[satyr9]

Unless it's Mariano Rivera I'll take type A compensation for just about any reliever. Still, the only way someone signs Frasor as an A is if it's similar to Scutaro last year where BOS already signed Lackey. That's about the only possibility for him in FA I think, but GMs who think they are close can often go a little weird for relievers, so anything's possible.

I know I'm going to be fairly alone after the joy he brought us this year, but I'd float Bautista out there and see if someone's willing to sign him long term and give you a Halladayesque (less obviously, but premium still) return at the same time. Obviously that's unlikely and I'll be happy to see him back, although I'm hoping it's not some monster 5 year deal just in case, but I'd definitely listen to offers.

And I think putting him at 3rd is the fall back option, not the starting point. A medium length term solution at 3rd would be my main goal this offseason along with the continued strengthening of the farm.

[SolomonSkyHook]

I wish we could play the Rays style of ball

[Michael Bradley]

Bautista does not become more valuable at 3B. He's a much better defender in RF.

Finding a quality 3B is a lot harder than finding a quality RF. Since Bautista isn't really a good defensive player at either position, I'm speaking strictly from an offensive standpoint. So if Bautista can play 3B adequately, he is far more valuable there. He has a good arm, which makes him look better in RF, but that's about it. I don't think he'll be significantly worse defensively at 3B than he is in RF. Now if the Jays trade for or acquire a good 3B, then sure keep Bautista in RF. But, as good as he has been hitting recently, I don't want EE at 3B next season. Either upgrade that position or move Bautista there.

[Hoopstarr]

-Eric Thames could be ready to step in at RF right away so I'm in favor of Jose moving to 3B.
-Re: don't forget that we signed Taylor Buccholz for some added depth. Also, Frasor is highly unlikely to be signed by another team. And despite what Cito's **** about "all those kids" in the bullpen who will have a hard time stepping up in the AL East (did he even follow the bullpens of the last several years?), there are plenty of quality relievers left even after Downs and Gregg are gone. Guys like Purcey, Janssen, Carlson, Camp, Tallet, Accardo, Hayhurst PLUS, since we are loaded with starters, guys like Rzep, Mills, Zach Stewart, Richmond, and Litsch are all guys who would settle for bullpen roles. That's a lot of quality guys to choose from. I bet I even forgot some names. Bottom line, the pen will be fine.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yeah, our starting pitcher depth means bullpen depth. It won't be a problem.

[Graham's Cracker]

We also have Magnuson and Farina and to a lesser extent Farquhar who are looking pretty close to major league ready.