I Warned You. Bautista's Value Peaked In 2011

[UN-Owen]

At the end of the 2011 season I openly campaigned to have Bautista traded because I felt his trade value would never be higher and at that point the Jays weren't close to being a contender

Most were against the idea

2011
149 games, 43 HR, 1.056 OPS

2012
92 games, 27 HR, .886 OPS

2013
99+ games, 25 HR, .852 OPS


Much like his batting average and OBP, Bautista's trade value has also dropped considerably

UN-Owen - March 24th 2012

We're a rebuilding team

And when your most prized asset on that rebuilding team is a 31 year old....he should be traded WHILE HIS VALUE IS AT ITS HIGHEST

I wonder what a trade with the Angels would look like centered around Trout

Sometimes an unpopular opinion at the time is ultimately proven right

Hopefully this thread can serve as a reminder of that and lead to more open mindedness in the conversations we have on this forum

[Randle McMurphy]

Good to know.

And yet, despite his inability to maintain a Barry Bonds/Lou Gehrig offensive level for multiple seasons (shocker there!), he still remains the team's best player and one of the more valuable players in baseball on a great contract.

[UN-Owen]

Good to know.

And yet, despite his inability to maintain a Barry Bonds/Lou Gehrig offensive level for multiple seasons (shocker there!), he still remains the team's best player and one of the more valuable players in baseball on a great contract.

Playing for a last place team

[Randle McMurphy]

Good to know.

And yet, despite his inability to maintain a Barry Bonds/Lou Gehrig offensive level for multiple seasons (shocker there!), he still remains the team's best player and one of the more valuable players in baseball on a great contract.

Playing for a last place team

Not for a lack of effort on AA's part.

[xAIRNESSx]

I've been saying for the last few years that we should trade Bautista if we weren't serious about contending. AA tried this year and it didn't work out, so I don't blame him for not trading Jose.

[s e n s i]

i think most reasonable people here didn't care if he hit 40+ jacks with a 1.000 OPS for 2012-2013, as he didn't even need to to be worth his fantastic contract. i think most were more than happy with a 35 HR, .900 OPS season. and i don't think you predicted him suffering a freak wrist injury last season either, or the emergence of another elite power hitter in the line-up that practically forced us to try and compete. regardless, it's not like you really went out on a limb to say he wouldn't sustain the same level of production as he did in 2011, a drop off on such elite numbers was pretty much anticipated. he's still a top 20 player on a great deal anyways so do i regret not trading him and trying to go for it this year? not really. btw i'm quite positive schad also wanted to deal him at the time as well.

[UN-Owen]

Good to know.

And yet, despite his inability to maintain a Barry Bonds/Lou Gehrig offensive level for multiple seasons (shocker there!), he still remains the team's best player and one of the more valuable players in baseball on a great contract.

Playing for a last place team

Not for a lack of effort on AA's part.

AA's strategy was flawed from the get-go

Why?

Cause he was trying to rebuild around a 31 year old who had peaked

[Schad]

Sometimes an unpopular opinion at the time is ultimately proven right

Hopefully this thread can serve as a reminder of that and lead to more open mindedness in the conversations we have on this forum

Heh, no, that's not what this is about. This is you wanking about your self-perception as the voice of reason, cruelly struck down by the ignorant masses.

Guess what? The idea that Bautista was not likely to post 7.7 fWAR in perpetuity is hardly something you would have gotten pushback concerning. The people who argued against trading him (and, for the record, I was one who'd have traded him for Trout in an instant, and floated trading him as part of a rebuild time and again) weren't doing so in the expectation that he'd never 'regress' to merely being elite, but rather that merely being elite still represented the sort of player you'd like to have. And Bautista is still elite...he's trending toward 5+ WAR, and if the rest of the team wasn't **** the bed in epic fashion, that production would be a large part of the push to the playoffs.

[Randle McMurphy]

AA's strategy was flawed from the get-go

Why?

Cause he was trying to rebuild around a 31 year old who had peaked

You're again referring to one of the more valuable players in baseball on a team-friendly contract. Or pretty much a great option to build a contending team around provided you also have the other pieces in place.

[UN-Owen]

Sometimes an unpopular opinion at the time is ultimately proven right

Hopefully this thread can serve as a reminder of that and lead to more open mindedness in the conversations we have on this forum

Heh, no, that's not what this is about. This is you wanking about your self-perception as the voice of reason, cruelly struck down by the ignorant masses.

Guess what? The idea that Bautista was not likely to post 7.7 fWAR in perpetuity is hardly something you would have gotten pushback concerning. The people who argued against trading him (and, for the record, I was one who'd have traded him for Trout in an instant, and floated trading him as part of a rebuild time and again) weren't doing so in the expectation that he'd never 'regress' to merely being elite, but rather that merely being elite still represented the sort of player you'd like to have. And Bautista is still elite...he's trending toward 5+ WAR, and if the rest of the team wasn't **** the bed in epic fashion, that production would be a large part of the push to the playoffs.

Your first paragraph is a baseless assumption and isn't really on point with the conversation

So let's stick to what we can prove:

Bautista = .254 AVG, .349 OBP, .503 Slug%, .852 OPS
Lind = .291 AVG, .354 OBP, .497 Slug%, .851 OPS


Is Adam Lind also elite?

[Schad]

For a number of reasons, no. One, Lind's BABIP is pushing his average up; that will not be the case long-term. Two, he's largely limited to hitting against righties, unless you want to eat 150-200 PAs of absolute suck. Three, he has no long-term track record of success. Four, positional consideration also come into play; Bautista is an above-average right fielder, which has a much greater impact than a first baseman/designated hitter.

Put those things together, and you have a guy in Bautista who is top-25 among major league hitters in fWAR despite missing a chunk of time. Lind's clocking in at 147th right now.

[UN-Owen]

AA's strategy was flawed from the get-go

Why?

Cause he was trying to rebuild around a 31 year old who had peaked

You're again referring to one of the more valuable players in baseball on a team-friendly contract. Or pretty much a great option to build a contending team around provided you also have the other pieces in place.

But it may take 2 or 3 years to get those pieces in place and then what?

You've got a 34 year old faded superstar and you've hindered your team's chances for long term success

[Randle McMurphy]

But it may take 2 or 3 years to get those pieces in place and then what?

Except on paper, they were good enough this year. It made/makes complete sense to give it a go with elite players when you are lucky enough to have them.

[UN-Owen]

But it may take 2 or 3 years to get those pieces in place and then what?

Except on paper, they were good enough this year. It made/makes complete sense to give it a go with elite players when you are lucky enough to have them.

But at the time we didn't have elite players

We had one elite player -- and it should have been assumed that his value had peaked

[UN-Owen]

i think most were more than happy with a 35 HR, .900 OPS season.

Are most more than happy this season?

[Schad]

i think most were more than happy with a 35 HR, .900 OPS season.

Are most more than happy this season?

They should be. Bautista is being paid like a 3 WAR player; he topped 3 WAR before the All-Star Break.

[s e n s i]

i think most were more than happy with a 35 HR, .900 OPS season.

Are most more than happy this season?

i can't speak for most since there are a handful of morons around here, but i'm more than happy to have a RF projected for 5 fWAR, being paid nearly $10m less than what he's worth, sure

[Fairview4Life]

This thread is a master class in how to make yourself look like an ****.

[Randle McMurphy]

But at the time we didn't have elite players

Except they had two offensive elite players (Bautista, Encarnacion) and two others with the potential of being elite (Rasmus, Lawrie). They needed to go out to get some top-level pitching to supplement that talent, which they did. It was enough to make them a contender on paper going into the season. To call their plan flawed is just a bit of an exercise in hindsight reasoning.

[UN-Owen]

i think most were more than happy with a 35 HR, .900 OPS season.

Are most more than happy this season?

i can't speak for most but i'm more than happy to have a RF projected for 5 fWAR, being paid nearly $10m less than what he's worth, sure

5 fWAR, what is it good for?

Absolutely nothing! --- if it's for a last place team


It doesn't matter if Bautista hits 100 homeruns this season, his value is just being wasted if the Jays are under .500

And while his value is being wasted, it's also diminishing