OFFICIAL: 2014/2015 OFFSEASON THREAD

[s e n s i]

bob stanley won't be returning as bullpen coach (unlike the rest of the coaching staff who will return), which means next to nothing i'm sure -- but even considering the volatility of bullpens in general, to me this comes as no surprise after my personal experience in april watching him pretty much take a nap in the bullpen at progressive field ahead of a game while a couple pitchers were getting loose

[FrankGrimes]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-bas ... sco-giants

interesting way to build a team. at the bottom we see a breakdown of how the giants acquired their roster. trades and free agents made of 6 of the 25 man roster.

thank god the jays didn't trade stroman, sanchez, etc. or I'd stop watching the blue jays and only follow them as a casual fan. considering I've been pretty hardcore since '85, that's a statement and a half but life is getting busy and it's only gonna get busier and I've got to free up time.

but I'm just one fan so what does rogers give two **** about, anyway.

build from within, if it ain't working then fire AA. but he's made a case that he should stay and there are more kids on the way.

enjoy the world series. should be a good one.

[Wo1verine]

Probably going to be another depressing off-season.

I am hoping for massive change, but realize that isn't going to happen.

AA will show off his bullpen fetish some more.

[Kurtz]

Probably going to be another depressing off-season.

I am hoping for massive change, but realize that isn't going to happen.

AA will show off his bullpen fetish some more.

I hope he does, I think bullpens are extremely underrated. I mean, you can acquire 3-4 stud bullpen arms for the price of 1 ace, and those bullpen arms will combine to give you many more innings, high leverage situations and you will mitigate injury risk.

I mean...witness KC.

[Randle McMurphy]

Of course, the problem with investing a lot in relievers is they are notoriously inconsistent from season to season and their shelf life is often limited.

[satyr9]

Okay, so take the Royals 'pen. Take the preseason top 5 guys: Holland/Herrera/Davis/Crow/Collins (I'm already fudging history a bit 'cause of Hochevar, but I'll do my best to stay consistent). We're taking preseason 'cause if we're going to ask about offseason plans we should compare apples to apples.

This year the Royals had,

2014 KCR 284.1IP, 65ER, 2.06ERA, 307K, 9.72K/9, 104BB, 3.29BB/9, 2.95K:BB, 15HR, 0.47HR/9

That's fantastic,. That's the core doing 60ish% of the relief innings, likely 90% of the important ones, and they came out better than what the same 5 did last year:

2013 KCR 236.1IP, 74ER, 2.82ERA, 280K, 10.66K/9, 93BB, 3.54BB/9, 3.01K:BB, 21HR, 0.80HR/9

Despite the jump from an already great ERA, that's basically the same. They gave up more HR last year, but had better K's. This difference looks like a marginal improvement and quite a bit of luck with HR rate. Still, their core stayed consistent. In fact, '13's core had Hochevar in the top 5, not Davis, but there's too many what if's to include him IMO and Davis was already in the 'pen when '13 ended so I'll pretend Davis has always been a core piece, he certainly is now. If anything, their continued bullpen success came from paying starters like Guthrie and Vargas, because it meant they could officially bank on Davis there and he killed it in his first full season in relief.

But getting back to why I started with KC. Looking at 2013 KCR and the statistics compared to 2013 TOR's top 5 of Janssen/Santos/Delabar/Cecil/Loup

2013 TOR 267IP, 79ER, 2.66ERA, 283K, 9.54K/9, 82BB, 2.76BB/9, 3.45K:BB, 21HR, 0.71HR/9

TOR's 2013 core performance was better than 2013 KCR"s. Not a lot better, but better. Why would AA have thought, known or wanted to get away from that group? In 2013, the core group of each stays the same, but the production dovetails. The Jays 2014 instead of the Royals is:

2014 TOR 214.1IP, 94ER, 3.95ERA, 210K, 8.82K/9, 101BB, 4.24BB/9, 2.08K:BB, 20HR, 0.84HR/9.

Basically, command goes out the window and the fewer K's, dramatic spike in walks pushes a couple of the guys out of the core entirely and the ERA goes in the toilet.

You can certainly make the argument that Santos is far less reliable than anything the Royals were using and Delabar didn't have a track record, although it was longer than Wade Davis' relief career. I could maybe include Redmond against Davis and pretend Santos was Hochevar's opposite and leave him or or just expand to 6 guys. TOR's numbers would change a bit then, but the split would still exist. I think most people would've seen those guys on either side as the core going forward if we'd asked going into the 2014 season. Luke was going to have a chance to prove '13 wasn't a fluke and the Jays were seen as too deep for Redmond to be given the same opportunity, although it turns out he got it anyway.

My point is, outside of 20/20, who was looking at the core of both 'pens and seeing the enormous discrepancy that takes two eerily similar 2013 performances and separates them into the massive gulf of 2014?

I'm not saying there weren't indicators (contract situations aside, no ones trading KC's 'pen in 2013 for TOR's, primarily due to Holland vs. Janssen), but if you're a GM on a tight budget in the offseason between the two years, they're miniscule and not viable reasons to rock the boat, which is why neither AA nor Moore did much to their 'pens both to vastly different outcomes.

Relievers are just very hard to count on perennially, which is why it's not often a great idea to spend heavily on them. KCR could easily end up giving Wade Davis a large extension this offseason and regretting it for years if he has anything like a typical relievers rollercoaster of a career.

This is also 100% ignoring relievers 6-10 or 12 or however many a GM should plan on having for injuries, so certainly there's a difference. I have a much longer rant on where that comes from and why it's missing in TOR right now, but this post is already 5 times longer than it should be.

[Michael Bradley]

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/10/21/blue-jays-adam-lind-attracting-plenty-of-interest

With Alex talking about using the DH spot to rest Reyes and Bautista throughout the season, coupled with Lind's outspoken rant about management's disinterest in trying to win (which was all true unfortunately), it looks like the writing is on the wall as far as Lind's future.

[dagger]

This story from Rosenthal on talks with Melky doesn't add much, but does provide some market context.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon ... ract-talks

[Geddy]

Some guy from the Boston Globe was saying that the Blue Jays will try to trade Buerhle.

[Wo1verine]

Some guy from the Boston Globe was saying that the Blue Jays will try to trade Buerhle.

Sounds like if they do indeed trade him they will need to eat portion of his remaining salary.

[C Court]

AA is dumpster diving again. Claiming Justin Smoak off waivers from the Mariners.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/ ... blue-jays/

[rarefind]

AA is dumpster diving again. Claiming Justin Smoak off waivers from the Mariners.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/ ... blue-jays/

Needed someone to replace Rasmus and his standard of not living up to lofty expectations.

[FrankGrimes]

plan the parade!

bye bye adam lind. smoak has pretty equal brutal splits where lind was awful against lefties and raked against righties.

next move, trade bautista and sign markakis.

[Wo1verine]

AA is dumpster diving again. Claiming Justin Smoak off waivers from the Mariners.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/ ... blue-jays/

Smoak is a 28-year old 1B only bat who has a career 94 wRC+ over 2200+ PA and doesn't even play good defense.


AA,

Spoiler:

[Michael Bradley]

Smoak can draw walks at a decent clip. Outside of that, I don't see a single positive to anything he has done in the Majors so far. It's possible AA feels that Smoak's power potential can be exploited in Toronto rather than Safeco, but that's a lot to bank on if he is in fact Lind's soon-to-be replacement.

The return for Lind better be really, really good if Smoak is going to be pencilled in at 1B. I can't imagine they acquired him to not use him, especially since they will be on the hook for a $150,000 buyout (you can sign a no-name hitting coach to a one year deal with that kind of money). Unless he takes a huge leap forward offensively in Toronto, Smoak is at least a one win downgrade from Lind, which is not what the Jays need right now, even if he is cheaper.

I'd like this move a lot more if it was a cheap deal and he would be in AAA. Too early to tell what the plan is with him, though.

[FrankGrimes]

joey bats didn't go nuts until his age 29 season.

maybe smoak? he's a first round pick (11th overall) so he's not total garbage but a nice shiny piece of garbage that AA saw and picked off the dump.

gotta look at the bright side. GO BANANA!

[Graham's Cracker]

Not sure how much I like committing that much payroll to a project, when we have been reluctant to add money in the past year. If we are talking limited pot, I think I would prefer using those resources elsewhere.
Jeff Sullivan's take

If you were to watch Smoak in batting practice, you’d see an awesomely talented hitter. The Mariners know that, and the Mariners have long known that, but there’s raw talent and there’s game talent, and Smoak hasn’t translated enough of the former into the latter. The Mariners have worked with him. Oh, how the Mariners have worked with him, in the minors and in the majors and on the off-days and on the gamedays. No player Smoak’s age is completely out of promise, but the more time that passes without everything clicking, the less likely it becomes that things ever fully click. Last spring, the Mariners believed in Smoak’s odds. They don’t anymore, but the Blue Jays do. They can both be right, I suppose — not every team is identically patient, or identically hopeful.

[Randle McMurphy]

AA is dumpster diving again. Claiming Justin Smoak off waivers from the Mariners.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/ ... blue-jays/

Needed someone to replace Rasmus and his standard of not living up to lofty expectations.

Smoak isn't a MLB caliber player, though. If he's on the 25 man roster next year, a mistake will have been made.

[C Court]

Thank god Alex brought Liam Hendricks back. Every team needs an Australian.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/b ... e21383809/

[Raider917]

is there any moves that teams can do today that they couldnt do yesterday?