OFFICIAL: 2014/2015 OFFSEASON THREAD

[Randle McMurphy]

You have to wonder if things are heading back down into the crapper.

After a nice start to the off season with a great trade (Donaldson) and another I can endorse (Saunders) for compelling economic reasons (mainly captured in 2026), these facts remain:

1. The fifth starter is likely to be an untried rookie - Sanchez - or Estrada, who is unsuited for the job, particularly with half his starts likely in a homer friendly stadium. Whoever doesn't gets the fifth start job is the swingman/sixth starter. There is no clear #1 on the staff, just potentials.

2. There is no bullpen to speak of. We have two reasonably good lefties - Cecil and Loup - but if Sanchez starts, there isn't a right hander power thrower to close or set up.

3. It doesn't look like there is much money beyond that allocated for arbitrations, certainly not enough to find good bullpen arms in free agency, so AA has abandoned that path.

4. As he hunts for a trade for a reliever or relievers using by his own admission prospects other than our very closest to the majors, the price of relief help has gone up. The cost of a good reliever with a couple of years of control like Kevin Jepsen is a Matt Joyce level talent, which is admittedly not like giving up upside guys like Will Myers or Desmond Jennings, but still.

The overall relief market has been negatively influenced by some pricey FA signings which have made good relief candidates a pricier commodity, whether acquired for cash in free agency or via trade.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12038 ... pen-pieces

My concern is that AA has his job on the line, and that the cost in prospects of a couple of decent relievers might end up being much more painful to bear than the original claim that it could be done with our lower first tier or second tier pitching prospects.

Panic?

[Randle McMurphy]

In all seriousness, the Jays are already a contender in 2015 without doing anything else (and I certainly anticipate they'll still add a RP or two and possibly a 2B). That's how significant the Donaldson and Martin upgrades are.

Even if they don't acquire another SP, I also feel better about the #5 spot in the rotation (Sanchez, Norris, Estrada) than I did going into last season with McGowan and Happ. The rotation as a whole also looks much better than 2014 with Stroman's emergence too.

[StringerBell]

In all seriousness, the Jays are already a contender in 2015 without doing anything else (and I certainly anticipate they'll still add a RP or two and possibly a 2B). That's how significant the Donaldson and Martin upgrades are.

Even if they don't acquire another SP, I also feel better about the #5 spot in the rotation (Sanchez, Norris, Estrada) than I did going into last season with McGowan and Happ. The rotation as a whole also looks much better than 2014 with Stroman's emergence too.

Contender for what???? They've upgraded at two positions - so what?. They've regressed in another 2 or 3. Better overall defensive team but offense is still the same with even more dependency on the long ball. As of right now the line-up is going depend a **** load on the top 5 and lord forbid Reyes misses his standard 20-30 games.

And I'm very concerned about the pitching staff - they desperately need a front line starting pitcher - especially if they plan on counting on journeymen/ AAAA fodder.

[Randle McMurphy]

Contender for what????

The AL East, which obviously makes them a contender for the AL/WS as well.

They've upgraded at two positions - so what?.

Massively upgraded with a top 3 player in baseball and a top 3 catcher in baseball, yes. They could have very well added 10 wins just with those two players.

They've regressed in another 2 or 3.

The Jays are definitely worse on paper in CF than last year (although Pompey/Pillar could very well out produce 2014 Colby). Other than that, not really.

As of right now the line-up is going depend a **** load on the top 5 and lord forbid Reyes misses his standard 20-30 games.

Most teams generally depend on their best players to do well. Kind of the way baseball/sports works.

And I'm very concerned about the pitching staff - they desperately need a front line starting pitcher - especially if they plan on counting on journeymen/ AAAA fodder.

The Orioles won the same division last year with Bud Norris as their best pitcher, so no, they don't. For what it's worth, though, Stroman was one of the better pitchers in the league last year in his 130+ innings (his 2.84 FIP was between Jon Lester's and Max Scherzer's).

[phillipmike]

Contender for what????

The AL East, which obviously makes them a contender for the AL/WS as well.

They've upgraded at two positions - so what?.

Massively upgraded with a top 3 player in baseball and a top 3 catcher in baseball, yes. They could have very well added 10 wins just with those two players.

They've regressed in another 2 or 3.

The Jays are definitely worse on paper in CF than last year (although Pompey/Pillar could very well out produce 2014 Colby). Other than that, not really.

As of right now the line-up is going depend a **** load on the top 5 and lord forbid Reyes misses his standard 20-30 games.

Most teams generally depend on their best players to do well. Kind of the way baseball/sports works.

And I'm very concerned about the pitching staff - they desperately need a front line starting pitcher - especially if they plan on counting on journeymen/ AAAA fodder.

The Orioles won the same division last year with Bud Norris as their best pitcher, so no, they don't.

Beautiful post Randle.... The Jays got better with the moves they made thus far. I would like to see them make more but as it stands we made great strides already that makes us contenders. Anyone can win the AL East the way it is constructed right now. Tampa is selling off assets, Balitmore is getting worse, Yankees are treading water. Boston is the only team that really improved but there are a lot of question marks about them.

Its December and still a lot of moves are going to be made but if you are looking at absolute gains the Jays are MUCH better.

[Randle McMurphy]

Beautiful post Randle.... The Jays got better with the moves they made thus far. I would like to see them make more but as it stands we made great strides already that makes us contenders. Anyone can win the AL East the way it is constructed right now. Tampa is selling off assets, Balitmore is getting worse, Yankees are treading water. Boston is the only team that really improved but there are a lot of question marks about them.

Its December and still a lot of moves are going to be made but if you are looking at absolute gains the Jays are MUCH better.

Yeah, if the Jays aren't a "contender," I'd love to know who is. There aren't exactly any teams in the AL that look significantly better than them (even Boston, as you say, has potential issues).

I get the sense that many still aren't appreciating just how good Martin and especially Donaldson are (and just how much of an upgrade they'll likely be on Navarro and Lawrie).

[s e n s i]

As of right now the line-up is going depend a **** load on the top 5

what team doesn't?

[StringerBell]

The AL East, which obviously makes them a contender for the AL/WS as well.

They're an 80-85 win team right now as are about 8 other teams in the AL. So I guess by your definition more than half the league are contenders.

Massively upgraded with a top 3 player in baseball and a top 3 catcher in baseball, yes. They could have very well added 10 wins just with those two players.

I guess this is where we differ. IMO WAR is not a be all and end all to predict how good a player is or to predict the improvements of a ball club. Even so, Martin's OPS and WAR last year was inflated due to his high BABIP. He's a good player who'll provide a .700ish OPS but his real value comes with his solid d which takes a serious hit if he can't catch more than 120 games. And I'm a huge Donaldson fan but let's pump the brakes a little bit. TOP 3 all of baseball? According to WAR right? Come on man.

The Jays are definitely worse on paper in CF than last year (although Pompey/Pillar could very well out produce 2014 Colby). Other than that, not really.

I think they're definitely worse in LF and 1B/DH(wherever they decide to play Smoak)

Most teams generally depend on their best players to do well. Kind of the way baseball/sports works.

Of course sports teams rely on their best players to be play like their best players. But it's depth and the supporting cast which separates contenders from pretenders. Like you said we're upgraded at TWO positions. We saw what the lack of a bench did to this team last year. We could have three 12 WAR players on the team, if they're depending on any production from Izturis coming off of surgery or Goins at SS to play 2b and spell Reyes, Pillar/Pompey as the Cf's, Thole and Valencia as the bench it's just not gonna cut it.

Not to mention there are sooo many empty outs after the 5th spot. Rack up 130+ k's for Smoak, Saunders, Pillar/Pompey. Just rally killers.

The Orioles won the same division last year with Bud Norris as their best pitcher, so no, they don't. For what it's worth, though, Stroman was one of the better pitchers in the league last year in his 130+ innings (his 2.84 FIP was between Jon Lester's and Max Scherzer's).

Baltimore also had one of the better bullpens last year.

[StringerBell]

Am I the only one who isn't content with the 25 man roster?

[MikeM]

Am I the only one who isn't content with the 25 man roster?

It's December.

[DaZe]

So Morrow is going to the Padres?

[dagger]

Am I the only one who isn't content with the 25 man roster?

It's December.

That's pretty much what people were saying a year ago. I'm waiting until January, when the players offer to pass the hat again.

[Michael Bradley]

Martin and Donaldson being worth around 10 wins combined in 2015 is a completely realistic prediction. Steamer has Donaldson at 5.6 and Martin at 3.8 in their 2015 projections, but that does not include pitch framing numbers, and over the last three seasons Martin has averaged around ~2 wins in framing alone. Even accounting for Martin's inevitable offensive decline, he still projects as an elite player. When you have a roster with 3 everyday players who are realistic 5-6 win players (in this case Bautista, Donaldson, and Martin), it's a pretty good spot to be in.

True, those are just projections, and a lot of variables are involved (injury/age), but claiming that the Jays "just" upgraded two positions is incredibly misleading. The magnitude of that improvement has the potential to be huge. The Jays best players are elite, and two of those players were added last month. It's been a pretty successful off-season even if nothing else of significance happens (although obviously I hope there is more to come).

[RapsFanInVA]

So Morrow is going to the Padres?

They signed Josh Johnson to a one year deal then watched him miss the entire season. Looks like they're trying to replicate that.

[Randle McMurphy]

They're an 80-85 win team right now as are about 8 other teams in the AL.

They won 83 games without Donaldson and Martin last year, so I have absolutely no idea how you've come to this conclusion.

So I guess by your definition more than half the league are contenders.

Considering mediocre teams like the Royals and Giants were in the World Series just a month ago, I don't think I'd have too much trouble making that argument. There's an incredible amount of parity in baseball at the moment.

I guess this is where we differ. IMO WAR is not a be all and end all to predict how good a player is or to predict the improvements of a ball club.

How well players can hit and field is. Donaldson and Martin are very good to exceptional at those skills.

Even so, Martin's OPS and WAR last year was inflated due to his high BABIP.

Actually, you could argue that WAR doesn't properly value Martin's contributions anywhere near enough as it doesn't account for his elite framing ability.

He's a good player who'll provide a .700ish OPS

Martin has a career .753 OPS and is coming off a .832 OPS season, so again, I'm not sure how you've come to this conclusion.

And while Donaldson is good, let's pump the brakes a little bit. TOP 3 all of baseball - according to WAR right??? Come on man.

It shouldn't take looking at a stat like WAR to know that Josh Donaldson is one of the best players in baseball (just watching him should be enough), but this ignorant comment does explain quite a bit about why you are so down on the Jays.

I think they're definitely worse in LF and 1B/DH(wherever they decide to play Smoak)

Any difference in LF and 1B/DH should be negligible. Although, if Saunders plays a full season, he'll likely contribute more than Melky would have in LF.

But it's depth and the supporting cast which separates contenders from pretenders.

I could just as easily say the opposite and it would mean just as much (which, is to say, nothing). Specious arguments for all!

Baltimore also had one of the better bullpens last year.

So to sum it up, you need a front-line starting pitcher to contend unless you're the Baltimore Orioles. Then just having a good bullpen is acceptable. Good to know that we're making these rules for contending up as we go.

[MikeM]

Am I the only one who isn't content with the 25 man roster?

It's December.

That's pretty much what people were saying a year ago. I'm waiting until January, when the players offer to pass the hat again.

A year ago we didn't upgrade to this level by December. In fact, we didn't upgrade at all.

I can understand wanting to go from top 10 in payroll to top 3 and shoring up every weakness by the end of 2014. But at the same time, this is probably the most talented team we've had in years and we're definite playoff contenders as is. Nothing is perfect.

[rarefind]

Add a couple arms to the pen and I am content which could be aided by moving Navarro. Our 1B/DH spot (wherever Edwin isn't positioned) will be a weakness unless Smoak somehow learns to get on base. Wish AA could've squeezed Montero out of the Smoak/Happ deal just because you never know.

[StringerBell]

Am I the only one who isn't content with the 25 man roster?

It's December.

You're right, there is still time for AA to make moves or sign free agents but after listening to him at the winter meetings and on the Jeff Blair show this morning, it sounds as though they've reached their spending limit and the only moves from here on out will be a minor move or two for relievers. Hope I'm wrong though.

[Randle McMurphy]

It's December.

That's pretty much what people were saying a year ago. I'm waiting until January, when the players offer to pass the hat again.

A year ago we didn't upgrade to this level by December. In fact, we didn't upgrade at all.

I can understand wanting to go from top 10 in payroll to top 3 and shoring up every weakness by the end of 2014. But at the same time, this is probably the most talented team we've had in years and we're definite playoff contenders as is. Nothing is perfect.

Yeah, but I just don't know how we can go on without Jason Motte.

[Wo1verine]

Projections are nice indeed. It's too bad our owner is content instead trying to add to an already good team.

The starting pitching is very worrisome should an injury or two strike or someone doesn't preform as expected.

Quality over quantity