Bullpen options

[dballislife]

not giving melky that 15mill should be used right here

[flatjacket1]

not giving melky that 15mill should be used right here

I would rather see it go towards a starter personally. Bump Sanchez to the bullpen, make it stronger that way. For the amount of money going to FA relievers to pitch 45-65 innings, I feel a starter makes more sense.

Bullpens tend to be ridiculously volatile anyways, I wouldn't bank on a terrible year yet.

[dballislife]

not giving melky that 15mill should be used right here

I would rather see it go towards a starter personally. Bump Sanchez to the bullpen, make it stronger that way. For the amount of money going to FA relievers to pitch 45-65 innings, I feel a starter makes more sense.

Bullpens tend to be ridiculously volatile anyways, I wouldn't bank on a terrible year yet.

of course its been fans number 1 wish for years, but will they finally pay 15-20 mill for starter? chances arent high...so spending 10-15mill in the pen isn't a bad 2nd option

[Graham's Cracker]

Anthony Varvaro was DFA'd by the Braves to make room for Callaspo. He'd be a decent pickup at a low salary. Sounds like the Braves are going to trade him. Last year he posted an 8.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and has combined for 1.7 bWAR over past 2 seasons.

[akakalakin]

10-15 million on the bullpen is a fantasy, unless through Navarro trade

[Cyrus]

its funny how the narriative of all the sportsnet writers went from we got money to spend, we can maybe even offer one of the premium starters a big deal, too...we got some money for Reliever Free agents...12-15 mill. Would you rather have 2 good reliever pitchers or melky... to the fa market is too pricey, lets trade for RP, and trade prospects....

[flatjacket1]

of course its been fans number 1 wish for years, but will they finally pay 15-20 mill for starter? chances arent high...so spending 10-15mill in the pen isn't a bad 2nd option

I am of the belief that 20M for a guy who pitches 200 innings is better than a guy for 10-20M to pitch 65-75 innings.

Also I would rather see us go the trade route for a starter, but taking on salary isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I never understood the point of signing relievers after one year fluke seasons. Whoever avoids a bad outing gets paid. They are so volatile, I would just load up the pen with young guys and see what happens.

[Black Watch]

Bullpen arms are completely fungible. No need to worry, much less panic.

[Garrett]

Word is the Jays are interested in trading for Paplebon or Clippard.

[satyr9]

Clippard's an impossible trade for AA, so forget that one. If he can't pay the UFA guys he's not dealing for the guy looking to be Robertson in a year. Papelbon would be intriguing if they'd eat money and give him away (a 2/14-2/16 type), but RAJ is quite literally the worst trade value evaluator on the planet these last few years so that won't happen.

Dinner to the D'backs make tons of sense, but I think it's a ST deal for depth rather than a closer move before then. Perez/Ziegler/Hernandez could all fit as the guy coming back, but 2 of the 3 are coming back from injury and for a guy with those types of question marks AA won't move Navarro at least until he sees some ST at bats out of the Smoak/Barton/Colabello camp. There's just a bit too much uncertainty for either side and nothing forcing them to pull the trigger, so unless another shoe drops forcing it, I'd expect that to sit on the table until sometime in March.

My sleeper high profile name for Dinner is Feliz. He's due to make real money in arbitration and there's virtually no upside for TEX to use him this year. If he's great they still won't feel comfortable enough to trust him to pay him a UFA style closer deal. And they need to hold a spot at C for year for Alfaro. I know AA is more afraid of injury concerned players this year, as he should be, but that's the kind of high upside gamble I can see him making. Probably have to kick in a C+ type too.

The trend here for me is finding the guy who was once reliable, blew out a part and is coming back. Whether that's any of the guys mentioned or a S.Marshall or a J.Venters or whoever, I'm fine, but if you've gotta cobble it together on a super budget, I think eventually they'll have to role the dice that they're picking the right one or two more of those types (W.Lopez is one already) and hope to strike gold.

[flatjacket1]

My sleeper high profile name for Dinner is Feliz. He's due to make real money in arbitration and there's virtually no upside for TEX to use him this year. If he's great they still won't feel comfortable enough to trust him to pay him a UFA style closer deal. And they need to hold a spot at C for year for Alfaro. I know AA is more afraid of injury concerned players this year, as he should be, but that's the kind of high upside gamble I can see him making. Probably have to kick in a C+ type too.

The trend here for me is finding the guy who was once reliable, blew out a part and is coming back. Whether that's any of the guys mentioned or a S.Marshall or a J.Venters or whoever, I'm fine, but if you've gotta cobble it together on a super budget, I think eventually they'll have to role the dice that they're picking the right one or two more of those types (W.Lopez is one already) and hope to strike gold.

To gain exclusive negotiating rights with Feliz will still cost a pretty penny. Remember how much we paid for a guy a year away from a big payday? (RA Dickey). Arbitration years are still a bargain as you get paid and evaluated yearly and compensated based on your previous year. Typically it's like 40% of what you are worth in year 1 of arbies, then 60 then 80. It's not like they need to hand out a huge contract.

I agree with the logic though, as a team competing with 200M payrolls you need to roll the dice a bit and bring in someone who is undervalued. Finding market inefficiencies is essential to win championships. I just don't see Feliz coming cheap.

[satyr9]

My sleeper high profile name for Dinner is Feliz. He's due to make real money in arbitration and there's virtually no upside for TEX to use him this year. If he's great they still won't feel comfortable enough to trust him to pay him a UFA style closer deal. And they need to hold a spot at C for year for Alfaro. I know AA is more afraid of injury concerned players this year, as he should be, but that's the kind of high upside gamble I can see him making. Probably have to kick in a C+ type too.

The trend here for me is finding the guy who was once reliable, blew out a part and is coming back. Whether that's any of the guys mentioned or a S.Marshall or a J.Venters or whoever, I'm fine, but if you've gotta cobble it together on a super budget, I think eventually they'll have to role the dice that they're picking the right one or two more of those types (W.Lopez is one already) and hope to strike gold.

To gain exclusive negotiating rights with Feliz will still cost a pretty penny. Remember how much we paid for a guy a year away from a big payday? (RA Dickey). Arbitration years are still a bargain as you get paid and evaluated yearly and compensated based on your previous year. Typically it's like 40% of what you are worth in year 1 of arbies, then 60 then 80. It's not like they need to hand out a huge contract.

I agree with the logic though, as a team competing with 200M payrolls you need to roll the dice a bit and bring in someone who is undervalued. Finding market inefficiencies is essential to win championships. I just don't see Feliz coming cheap.

I don't see why it would. If you're right, then forget it. I only see Feliz as a guy due to make something in the 3.5-5m in arb due to prior work with massive injury concerns, but incredible upside. You're giving away a ton of security on the floor for huge but unlikely to achieve ceiling (if Dinner is a 1-2WAR, then Feliz is a -0.5-2.5WAR player). Mostly, I think at this point in the offseason the biggest impediment for deals will be budget. If they're budget neutral, or as close to it as possible, it's more likely for both sides. Then if you can match term too, so 5 in and 5 out in a single budget year, you're way ahead in the guessing game.

As for the Dickey trade,I don't see how it's remotely applicable. He was coming off a Cy Young and due to his age and career really wanted an extension that the Mets wouldn't give, a ludicrously reasonable extension for a Cy Young winner, again due to age and career. We didn't trade for Dickey's negotiating rights, that extension was announced pretty much simultaneously, it had to have been done in principle for the deal to work at all.

In this case, the entire premise of the deal would be that Feliz would be impossible to re-sign now (unless he's broken, which would make all this moot as he'd never pass a medical). Otherwise he's assuredly at a place where he wants the year to build value, not to lock it in, which is primarily why I see him as useless to the Rangers. Their upside for playing him is not making the playoffs, not even really being competitive, and losing him in a year anyway, so why not get something now and let that be someone elses problem?

And I did preface the entire thing with this being a sleeper. I'm not even saying it's particularly likely, I just think he's an interesting possibility compared to the terrifying prospect of trying to deal for Holland, Roldy, or Kimbrel; Those sound terrible to me. Not because they're bad, obviously they're all fantastic, but the price would be horrendous.

[flatjacket1]

I don't see why it would. If you're right, then forget it. I only see Feliz as a guy due to make something in the 3.5-5m in arb due to prior work with massive injury concerns, but incredible upside. You're giving away a ton of security on the floor for huge but unlikely to achieve ceiling (if Dinner is a 1-2WAR, then Feliz is a -0.5-2.5WAR player). Mostly, I think at this point in the offseason the biggest impediment for deals will be budget. If they're budget neutral, or as close to it as possible, it's more likely for both sides. Then if you can match term too, so 5 in and 5 out in a single budget year, you're way ahead in the guessing game.

As for the Dickey trade,I don't see how it's remotely applicable. He was coming off a Cy Young and due to his age and career really wanted an extension that the Mets wouldn't give, a ludicrously reasonable extension for a Cy Young winner, again due to age and career. We didn't trade for Dickey's negotiating rights, that extension was announced pretty much simultaneously, it had to have been done in principle for the deal to work at all.

In this case, the entire premise of the deal would be that Feliz would be impossible to re-sign now (unless he's broken, which would make all this moot as he'd never pass a medical). Otherwise he's assuredly at a place where he wants the year to build value, not to lock it in, which is primarily why I see him as useless to the Rangers. Their upside for playing him is not making the playoffs, not even really being competitive, and losing him in a year anyway, so why not get something now and let that be someone elses problem?

And I did preface the entire thing with this being a sleeper. I'm not even saying it's particularly likely, I just think he's an interesting possibility compared to the terrifying prospect of trying to deal for Holland, Roldy, or Kimbrel; Those sound terrible to me. Not because they're bad, obviously they're all fantastic, but the price would be horrendous.

Incredible upside is the reason Feliz won't be moved at a discount.

The Dickey trade relates as Dickey had 1 controllable year left when we acquired him, and the contract we paid was market value (or close to it). Getting a young guy for a few years of arbitration sure as heck beats the situation we got in with Dickey. If we waited a year we could have gotten him for a similar dollar value in FA. We traded top prospects to gain negotiation rights so avoid hitting FA.

I wouldn't say impossible. With pitchers it is always smart to go for a multi year extension, as even if it is less money than you could of gotten on a year to year basis, the security helps in case of an injury or what not. There isn't a player in the world who would rule out an extension.

[Graham's Cracker]

Maybe 2015 Chris Martin can be our 2013 Steve Delabar?

The 6'8" righty Chris Martin was DFA'd by the Rockies today. Martin's got a heavy fastball like Delabar he runs it up to 95. Although he posted a 6.89 ERA in 2014, he was hurt by a .476 BABIP and HR/FB of 50% at Coors. He owned a 60% GB rate which was above his career norm by quite a bit, but Walt Weiss praised his ability to miss bats and induce ground balls. His K/9 was 8.03 and BB/9 was just 2.03. With better luck he could be a solid bullpen piece at a minimum contract.

Oh yeah and Delabar was a substitue teacher and came back to baseball while Martin was working at Lowes. So there's that too.

Denver Post Article

Martin tore his labrum after making the roster for the independent Fort Worth Cats — "He heard a pop, and couldn't throw," his father Matt Martin said — and reality clobbered him in the face.

He had bills, a house payment. Dreams don't have expiration dates, but they do have credit card limits.

"I never stopped thinking about baseball," said Martin, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the Franklin Morales trade. "I just didn't think it was possible."

Martin worked hard, long hours. He didn't have time to rehabilitate his shoulder. Turns out, he didn't need it. In something he still can't fully explain, the shoulder healed from rest and lifting the appliances. At 6-foot-7, 220 pounds, Martin was the ideal guy to get stuff on the higher shelves.

According to Kiley McDaniel

Righty Chris Martin is a 6’8 reliever on the 40-man with a plus fastball and cutter to go with big plane.

[Skin Blues]

His high BABIP gives his K/9 a boost. K% gives a better representation of strikeout ability, and he was only at 20%. Also, it was only 15 innings.

But yeah, this is the type of guy people are talking about when they say "don't give a reliever big money, they are fungible". This is a replacement-level pitcher, and he has a better projected ERA than Joe Nathan and Luke Gregerson.

[Schad]

His high BABIP gives his K/9 a boost. K% gives a better representation of strikeout ability, and he was only at 20%. Also, it was only 15 innings.

But yeah, this is the type of guy people are talking about when they say "don't give a reliever big money, they are fungible". This is a replacement-level pitcher, and he has a better projected ERA than Joe Nathan and Luke Gregerson.

Yeah, he's definitely someone I'd be willing to burn a 40-man spot on. Hard to look at his numbers (both in the bigs and the minors) and think that his cameo with the Rockies was anything but horrific luck...posts a 3.1:1 GB/FB ratio but 20% of those flies leave the park, gives up a marginally below-average line drive rate but everything falls in.

Also happens to be the sort of guy AA loves, so it wouldn't surprise me if we picked him up.

[Graham's Cracker]

His high BABIP gives his K/9 a boost. K% gives a better representation of strikeout ability, and he was only at 20%. Also, it was only 15 innings.

But yeah, this is the type of guy people are talking about when they say "don't give a reliever big money, they are fungible". This is a replacement-level pitcher, and he has a better projected ERA than Joe Nathan and Luke Gregerson.

Yeah, he's definitely someone I'd be willing to burn a 40-man spot on. Hard to look at his numbers (both in the bigs and the minors) and think that his cameo with the Rockies was anything but horrific luck...posts a 3.1:1 GB/FB ratio but 20% of those flies leave the park, gives up a marginally below-average line drive rate but everything falls in.

Also happens to be the sort of guy AA loves, so it wouldn't surprise me if we picked him up.

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of throwing as many wild cards in to the mix in spring training and let them battle it out for the bullpen spots. Add Jesse Crain on a Ryan Madson type deal, see who wins the jobs. Save the reported $5-7 Million for other upgrades.

[Michael Bradley]

His high BABIP gives his K/9 a boost. K% gives a better representation of strikeout ability, and he was only at 20%. Also, it was only 15 innings.

But yeah, this is the type of guy people are talking about when they say "don't give a reliever big money, they are fungible". This is a replacement-level pitcher, and he has a better projected ERA than Joe Nathan and Luke Gregerson.

Yeah, he's definitely someone I'd be willing to burn a 40-man spot on. Hard to look at his numbers (both in the bigs and the minors) and think that his cameo with the Rockies was anything but horrific luck...posts a 3.1:1 GB/FB ratio but 20% of those flies leave the park, gives up a marginally below-average line drive rate but everything falls in.

Also happens to be the sort of guy AA loves, so it wouldn't surprise me if we picked him up.

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of throwing as many wild cards in to the mix in spring training and let them battle it out for the bullpen spots. Add Jesse Crain on a Ryan Madson type deal, see who wins the jobs. Save the reported $5-7 Million for other upgrades.

Agreed. If the Jays are as strapped for cash as is being reported, then investing heavily in the pen seems pointless as it is the least likely position to add a meaningful amount of wins. Martin would be a solid pick up. AA really needs to be on top of the waiver wire. Load up with as many relief options as possible and hope one or two of them pan out. It's risky but likely the best option they have if $5-7M is all they have (and even that total could drop by next week).

Although, the more uncertainty over the pen, the more likely it is that Sanchez is a reliever next season at the first sign of trouble, so going cheap in the pen could be good and bad.

[Graham's Cracker]

His high BABIP gives his K/9 a boost. K% gives a better representation of strikeout ability, and he was only at 20%. Also, it was only 15 innings.

But yeah, this is the type of guy people are talking about when they say "don't give a reliever big money, they are fungible". This is a replacement-level pitcher, and he has a better projected ERA than Joe Nathan and Luke Gregerson.

Yeah, I know it's a small sample, so understandably performance over 15 innings should be evaluated cautiously i.e. unsustainable 60% GB rate. Martin had a K% of ~30% in AAA last year too (good for 12th in the PCL among pitchers who pitched 25+IP. Among the top 12 his BB% was good for 3rd best). Like you say "don't give a reliever big money, they are fungible". However, his components point to some potential for success. Might be worth giving a shot on the other hand, maybe we'd all have to cover our eyes on every other fly ball he gives up.

[Graham's Cracker]

Well, the Yankees picked up Chris Martin. I like what the Yankees have done this off-season in building their relief depth. The approach they used is exactly what I was expecting out of AA & Co.