Jays opening day payroll projected to drop over $10m

[Kurtz]

Going into the off-season I was asking for Martin, Shields and Aoki. Apparently Shields has lowered his expectations from 5/100 to 4/70-80, which is where I thought he'd go. I hope we backload that deal and bring him in at that price.

Backloaded Martin, too. And then down the road Donaldson is going to have to be paid, if he's worth keeping. I'd like to think Rogers has found religion, but I doubt a HEEL ever does.

Yeah, I'm hoping that Shields backloaded deal would simply replace Buehrle's, and Martin's increase would hopefully be an internal cap increase due to hopefully success this year. Or if Sanchez/Norris emerge as starters, Dickey could be moved to free up those funds to cover Martin.

[Schad]

This probably falls in the "they-haven't-f#@cked-with-our-heads-enough? category.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/theScore/status/556598847711891456[/tweet]

The only way this might even have 1% truth is as a move to make Duquette look good - or fill a void in the rotation because we gave the O's a pitcher as compensation.

Wouldn't surprise me if we were giving chase, for the simple reason that I've come to accept that nothing Rogers does squares with my expectations of what Rogers will do, whether positive or negative. If there's one constant in their treatment of the one-and-two-halves sports franchises they possess it's a lack of constancy, and I suspect it's because the sports teams end up as a political football in the boardroom...decisions are made as a reaction to something internal, rather than predicated on anything to do with the team itself. We might not spend another penny, or some corporate type might get it in his head that Shields offers massive crossmarket synergy with phone contracts in Moose Jaw or some such.

[Michael Bradley]

Backloading a deal for Shields is asking for trouble post-2016, when Reyes and Martin will be making $46M combined, Donaldson will be 3rd year arbitration, and Bautista/Edwin will need to be re-signed. Add a backloaded Shields to that group, and Rogers better be spending like the Ned Colletti Dodgers by that point.

But as a short-term move for 2015/16, go for it. Shields in the rotation and Sanchez in the pen is probably a 3-4 win improvement, and that might be the difference between the playoffs and sitting at home with so many teams bunched together in that 85-90+ range. AA, DD, or whoever the GM is can always trade Reyes while eating some of his salary in a year or two, or work around the expensive deals somehow, but for a team out of the playoffs for 22 years, it's a move they should do if it's even remotely possible. Counting on so many young pitching prospects is not a safe plan.

Although, Rosenthal last winter mentioned how the Jays were looking like the front runners for either Santana and Ubaldo, and we know how that turned out. Rogers is definitely unpredictable as far as when they do or don't spend money.

[Lateral Quicks]

At the rumoured term and AAV I'd do that for Shields. He's basically a Buerhle replacement one year early, and an upgrade at that. It's not often pitchers of his pedigree (#2 starter at this point) are willing to meet our terms (5-year policy), so we should capitalize. Under the best case scenario, one of Sanchez and Norris force their way into the rotation and Dickey becomes expendable, mitigating the net budget hit this year. Heck, they could sign Shields right now and turn around tomorrow and trade Dickey and Thole.

[BramptonYute]

Im pretty sure the Jays have internally discussed most free agents.

This means very little.

[FrankGrimes]

if we're hearing about it, then it's likely not happening.

besides, the jays wouldn't be the only team interested which would just drive the price up enough for the blue jays to walk away.

[dagger]

Not only is the opening day payroll going to be below 2014 opening day - the margin to be determined, it seems, by Donaldson's final number and by how many pickings we find in the relief pitching dumpster - but 2016 could be even lower. As Griffin notes, the team has hedged most of the 2015 payroll, but he implies that unless the C$ strengthens by next winter, the payroll in US dollars will be even lower. That could explain the difficulty of signing free agents. Anyone able to command more than a year of firm money is a threat to take away maneuvering room next winter.