ItsDanger wrote:Other teams trade top prospects and get Juan Soto type players. Maybe draw a comparison somewhere in between?
There are many more layers to the argument that you are trying to nonchalantly pigeonhole in.
The Padres traded FOUR top prospects (Abrams, Gore, Wood, Hassell) plus a 5th low-minors pitcher who was hitting 100 mph (Susana) to get ~2.3 years worth of Juan Soto, at a payroll hit of $20-$30 mill per year.
The Yankees traded much less to get 1 year of Juan Soto, at a $31 mill payroll hit.
The Blue Jays acquired 4 years of Daulton Varsho at peanut-level salaries. He made $3 mill last year and makes $5.6 mill this year.
This distinction is important because teams aren't just acquiring "a player". They are acquiring their contractual control (or lack thereof) plus the salary impact to their current and future payroll. A player's trade value is the culmination of all of those details, plus others. The fact that Soto is represented by Boras and is openly looking for $600+ mill (or whatever he wants) after this season is not a "non-factor" in any trade for him - this isn't a video game you are playing.
The Jays took a calculated risk to bet on Varsho who was coming off a 4.4 fWAR season with 4 years left on his entry-level contract. The fact that he is still on his entry-level contract means that they acquired a potentially high impact player while still maintaining payroll flexibility - which is important given the impending contract statuses of Vlad and Bichette, and the rest of the current team (for example the sunk-cost of Springer). That is the gamble they made. He underperformed last season, but if he produces 15 fWAR over the next three seasons is anyone going to be whining still?
The above logic is the only reason why "top prospects" are even worth anything, by the way. Why would I trade a star MLB player for someone who hasn't even done anything in the MLB yet? Well, because that unproven player is cost-controlled for YEARS - which means that if they actually do fulfill their prospect status, you are getting a star MLB player who is paid nothing for multiple MLB seasons. Or you are getting nothing.
