2023 Playoff Chase & Standings Watch

[SharoneWright]

Jays 3.0 GB of the Rays as of tonight.

Is it possible our local hurlers could surpass the mighty moneyballers from Tampa who started at 50-22?

Will the American League East post 5 (5!) teams with winning records when all is said and done?

Will Baltimore reveal any chinks in their armour? Do the Rangers hang on to the division over the hated Astros?

This is the thread to watch and track where we stand in playoff positioning and root root root against the rest of the AL EAST!

[Raps in 4]

We need to take 3/4 at least against the **** birds in this upcoming series.

[Parataxis]

Jays 3.0 GB of the Rays as of tonight.

Is it possible our local hurlers could surpass the mighty moneyballers from Tampa who started at 50-22?

Will the American League East post 5 (5!) teams with winning records when all is said and done?

Will Baltimore reveal any chinks in their armour? Do the Rangers hang on to the division over the hated Astros?

This is the thread to watch and track where we stand in playoff positioning and root root root against the rest of the AL EAST!

If we win today, and the Yankees do their job against Baltimore, then a 4 game sweep puts us ahead of the Orioles this week.

American League East could have all five teams above 500. More notably though, the AL Central 'winner' could be under 500. FFS.

[Soldier]

Our record right now :60-46
Against the AL East: 7-20
Against the rest of the league: 53-26(the best record in baseball against non division rival teams)

If we just had a average (.500 record )against the al east teams, we would lead the division very comfortably. We would run away with the al east easily.

[dagger]

JAys acquiring closer Jordan Hicks from Cardinals. No further details yet


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[SharoneWright]

Jays win!!

So do the i) Orioles, ii) Rays, iii) Rangers, iv) Red Sox, v) Astros, vi) Mariners........ ugh.

[GoRapstheoriginal]

What's the magic number now at?

[JN]

What's the magic number now at?

Not sure about the magic number, but 91 wins guarantees we get in at this point, since one of Seattle and Texas has to lose at least 4 of their 7 head to games, which would give them 72 losses. Also figure that Seattle and Texas probably don't sweep that middle 3 game series, so 90 is also a fairly high probability number as well. A number of scenarios as well that 89 could end up working.

Best case scenario is that one of Texas or Seattle takes 5 of the 7 head to head games.
So since Texas is going to win tonight, I'm going to be a fan of Texas tomorrow night.

[Randle McMurphy]

So since Texas is going to win tonight

You sure about that?

[Fairview4Life]

So since Texas is going to win tonight

You sure about that?

lol. The rangers bullpen has entered the chat.

[JN]

So since Texas is going to win tonight

You sure about that?

It was 8-0 at the time.
Figured that was safe even for the Rangers pen -- I guess not.

[SharoneWright]

Aroldis Chapman getting his just desserts.

In any case, let’s go rangers! Could be a perfect night!

[JN]

Current Fangraphs Playoff Odds - 88%
(As of Last Friday morning it was 33% - how things have changed)

Of course this team is certainly more than capable of living up to that 12% chance to blow it. (which the 88% still seems a tad high to me)

[duppyy]

Current Fangraphs Playoff Odds - 88%
(As of Last Friday morning it was 33% - how things have changed)

Of course this team is certainly more than capable of living up to that 12% chance to blow it. (which the 88% still seems a tad high to me)

Don’t think 88 is that high if you consider that if mariners get swept we only need to win 3 games total of the remaining games we have to clinch the last WC spot.

[Randle McMurphy]

Current Fangraphs Playoff Odds - 88%
(As of Last Friday morning it was 33% - how things have changed)

Of course this team is certainly more than capable of living up to that 12% chance to blow it. (which the 88% still seems a tad high to me)

Don’t think 88 is that high if you consider that if mariners get swept we only need to win 3 games total of the remaining games we have to clinch the last WC spot.

They’re playing the Rays 5 more times who are in a division race and King/Cole in 2 of the other games. It’s high.

[Lionel Hutz]

What happens if Texas wins the West and Jays, Astros and Mariners all tie for 5th and 6th spots. I believe we hold tie breaker over Astros and they hold it over Mariners while Mariners hold it over us. Where does that leave things?

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Current Fangraphs Playoff Odds - 88%
(As of Last Friday morning it was 33% - how things have changed)

Of course this team is certainly more than capable of living up to that 12% chance to blow it. (which the 88% still seems a tad high to me)

one thing for certain, we can only hope

[JN]

What happens if Texas wins the West and Jays, Astros and Mariners all tie for 5th and 6th spots. I believe we hold tie breaker over Astros and they hold it over Mariners while Mariners hold it over us. Where does that leave things?

From an article from MLB.com

"It's more complex for three-team ties.

If the three clubs DO NOT all have identical records against one another and Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure.

If the three clubs DO have identical records against one another, then the team with the best intradivision record (see below) is the qualifier."

So it would seem to be the team with the best winning% of among the three that would get the 5th seed.
What is unclear though is how the second team of the three is selected.... the scenario above is 3 teams for one spot.

If it is 3 teams for 2 spots, the question is if the second team (the sixth seed) is selected based on:
a) The second best winning % in games amongst the three.
or
b) Head to head tie-breaker of the two teams that are now fighting for the sixth seed.

[Randle McMurphy]

What happens if Texas wins the West and Jays, Astros and Mariners all tie for 5th and 6th spots. I believe we hold tie breaker over Astros and they hold it over Mariners while Mariners hold it over us. Where does that leave things?

From an article from MLB.com

"It's more complex for three-team ties.

If the three clubs DO NOT all have identical records against one another and Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure.

If the three clubs DO have identical records against one another, then the team with the best intradivision record (see below) is the qualifier."

So it would seem to be the team with the best winning% of among the three that would get the 5th seed.
What is unclear though is how the second team of the three is selected.... the scenario above is 3 teams for one spot.

If it is 3 teams for 2 spots, the question is if the second team (the sixth seed) is selected based on:
a) The second best winning % in games amongst the three.
or
b) Head to head tie-breaker of the two teams that are now fighting for the sixth seed.

I somehow can't find the official rulebook setting this out anywhere, but my understanding is they'll all be ranked by their overall winning percentage against each other (Jays, Astros, Mariners), which would rank Mariners as the 2nd WC, the Jays as the 3rd WC, and the Astros out of the playoffs in such a scenario.

A 3 way tie is looking increasingly more likely as well.

[JN]

Started the day at 88%, and still at 88%.

Huge that Houston and Seattle lost... but still what a missed opportunity.