2023 Playoff Chase & Standings Watch

[SharoneWright]

After today, Seattle looks almost dead. Good news too is that they play Houston next who are also feeling the pressure. Houston’s going to put the boot on their throat is my prediction.

[JN]

Assuming Houston and Seattle both lose today the Jays official Magic win total would fall from 91 to 90.

If Houston wins the Seattle series 2-1, they could get up a max of 90 wins (assuming they sweep Arizona). Seattle would be maxed out at 89 wins (assuming they sweep Texas). So in that case the Jays get in with 90 wins.

If Seattle wins the Houston series 2-1, its actually more favourable for us, since Seattle could still get a max of 90, and Houston could only get a max of 89 wins. And Toronto could get in with 89 wins since they hold the tiebreaker.

[SharoneWright]

Who could imagine, Kansas City. My new 2nd favourite team…

[pingpongrac]

How quickly things can change after it looked like we were dead in the water 10 days ago. Just need to pick up 3 more wins this week and we'll be locked into a playoff spot.

Houston (confirmed) and Seattle (probably) getting swept in their weekend series all but guarantees we'll be playing the Rays in the WC series, especially if the upcoming Astros/Mariners series ends 2-1 either way. I would have hated the prospect of a matchup against the Rays two months ago, but it's looking pretty damm favourable now due to all of Tampa's injuries.

[Bank Shot]

Really hard to see how we don't get in at this point. Hopefully, we take care of business with the Yanks so we can pull some funny business and get that Twins matchup, although the Rays aren't exactly looking scary at the moment.

[Randle McMurphy]

How quickly things can change after it looked like we were dead in the water 10 days ago. Just need to pick up 3 more wins this week and we'll be locked into a playoff spot.

Houston (confirmed) and Seattle (probably) getting swept in their weekend series all but guarantees we'll be playing the Rays in the WC series, especially if the upcoming Astros/Mariners series ends 2-1 either way. I would have hated the prospect of a matchup against the Rays two months ago, but it's looking pretty damm favourable now due to all of Tampa's injuries.

3 wins guarantees it. 2 wins almost certainly will do it too given that one of the Mariners/Astros have to lose two games this week (we'd much prefer that Houston be the one to lose the Mariners series).

[Randle McMurphy]

Really hard to see how we don't get in at this point. Hopefully, we take care of business with the Yanks so we can pull some funny business and get that Twins matchup, although the Rays aren't exactly looking scary at the moment.

King and Cole are still pitching against them Tuesday/Wednesday. Those games look actually more difficult than any Rays game right now.

[Randle McMurphy]

If Seattle wins the Houston series 2-1, its actually more favourable for us, since Seattle could still get a max of 90, and Houston could only get a max of 89 wins. And Toronto could get in with 89 wins since they hold the tiebreaker.

There's still a scenario where there could be a 4 way tie at 89 wins, I believe, which would knock us out (as I think Seattle would take the West and we'd lose in the combined TB with Houston/Texas). That is very, very unlikely to occur though. 89 probably will do it.

[Parataxis]

Assuming Houston and Seattle both lose today the Jays official Magic win total would fall from 91 to 90.

If Houston wins the Seattle series 2-1, they could get up a max of 90 wins (assuming they sweep Arizona). Seattle would be maxed out at 89 wins (assuming they sweep Texas). So in that case the Jays get in with 90 wins.

If Seattle wins the Houston series 2-1, its actually more favourable for us, since Seattle could still get a max of 90, and Houston could only get a max of 89 wins. And Toronto could get in with 89 wins since they hold the tiebreaker.

Does this mean that if Seattle sweeps Houston, we'd be guaranteed a WC spot with 88 wins?

[Randle McMurphy]

Assuming Houston and Seattle both lose today the Jays official Magic win total would fall from 91 to 90.

If Houston wins the Seattle series 2-1, they could get up a max of 90 wins (assuming they sweep Arizona). Seattle would be maxed out at 89 wins (assuming they sweep Texas). So in that case the Jays get in with 90 wins.

If Seattle wins the Houston series 2-1, its actually more favourable for us, since Seattle could still get a max of 90, and Houston could only get a max of 89 wins. And Toronto could get in with 89 wins since they hold the tiebreaker.

Does this mean that if Seattle sweeps Houston, we'd be guaranteed a WC spot with 88 wins?

Yep. Can't be a 4 way tie at 88 wins.

[Parataxis]

Assuming Houston and Seattle both lose today the Jays official Magic win total would fall from 91 to 90.

If Houston wins the Seattle series 2-1, they could get up a max of 90 wins (assuming they sweep Arizona). Seattle would be maxed out at 89 wins (assuming they sweep Texas). So in that case the Jays get in with 90 wins.

If Seattle wins the Houston series 2-1, its actually more favourable for us, since Seattle could still get a max of 90, and Houston could only get a max of 89 wins. And Toronto could get in with 89 wins since they hold the tiebreaker.

Does this mean that if Seattle sweeps Houston, we'd be guaranteed a WC spot with 88 wins?

Not necessarily because there could still be a 4 way tie at 88 wins. Very unlikely though.

Are you sure there? If Seattle sweeps Houston, that puts Seattle at 87 wins, with Texas already at 87 wins and four games between them remaining. I don't think it's possible in that scenario that there's a 4 way tie at 88.

[Randle McMurphy]

Does this mean that if Seattle sweeps Houston, we'd be guaranteed a WC spot with 88 wins?

Not necessarily because there could still be a 4 way tie at 88 wins. Very unlikely though.

Are you sure there? If Seattle sweeps Houston, that puts Seattle at 87 wins, with Texas already at 87 wins and four games between them remaining. I don't think it's possible in that scenario that there's a 4 way tie at 88.

Yep, I have already revised it before your response. Can't be a 4 way tie at 88 because somebody has to win those 4 Rangers/Mariners games.

[Randle McMurphy]

Not necessarily because there could still be a 4 way tie at 88 wins. Very unlikely though.

Are you sure there? If Seattle sweeps Houston, that puts Seattle at 87 wins, with Texas already at 87 wins and four games between them remaining. I don't think it's possible in that scenario that there's a 4 way tie at 88.

Yep, I have already revised it before your response. Can't be a 4 way tie at 88 because somebody has to win those 4 Rangers/Mariners games.

Actually, there's still a scenario where they miss here. If the Jays/Rangers/Astros all finish tied at 88 with the Mariners winning the division, the Jays are also out.

You need either a straight tie with the Astros or a 3 way tie with the Astros/Mariners for Jays to get a spot.

[Parataxis]

Are you sure there? If Seattle sweeps Houston, that puts Seattle at 87 wins, with Texas already at 87 wins and four games between them remaining. I don't think it's possible in that scenario that there's a 4 way tie at 88.

Yep, I have already revised it before your response. Can't be a 4 way tie at 88 because somebody has to win those 4 Rangers/Mariners games.

Actually, there's still a scenario where they miss here. If the Jays/Rangers/Astros all finish tied at 88 with the Mariners winning the division, the Jays are also out.

Winning 1 of the next 7 would be an amazing collapse by the Rangers. Seems likely.

Guess we'd better just keep winning.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yep, I have already revised it before your response. Can't be a 4 way tie at 88 because somebody has to win those 4 Rangers/Mariners games.

Actually, there's still a scenario where they miss here. If the Jays/Rangers/Astros all finish tied at 88 with the Mariners winning the division, the Jays are also out.

Winning 1 of the next 7 would be an amazing collapse by the Rangers. Seems likely.

Guess we'd better just keep winning.

I have a feeling the Angels are gonna make such a tie impossible within a few days anyway (although we should actually be rooting for LA to make those Rangers/Mariners games matter to them). They're just about as big a joke as the As right now.

[JN]

At this point, to even end up in a 3 way tie would involve a massive choke of near 1987 proportions, but just in case.

After reading the mlb.com article again, I am fairly convinced that the 3 way tie for 2 spots is determined as follows.
#1 spot - Team with best combined winning % against the other two.
#2 spot - The remaining two teams defer back to head to head rules.

Due to Houston's great record against Texas 9-4, and the fact that Seattle has an 8-2 record against Houston we can already determine what will happen in the 3 way tie's despite all the head to head's this week.

Houston/Texas/Toronto - Houston #1 spot, Texas #2 spot, Toronto out
Houston/Seattle/Toronto - Seattle #1 spot, Toronto #2 spot, Houston out
Texas/Seattle/Toronto - Seattle or Texas #1 Spot and #2 spot, Toronto out

[Raider917]

If the jays sweep the Yankees they re in right?

[JN]

Our magic number appears to be at 5 (with both Seattle and Houston). While a combination of 4 with Houston would allow us to finish ahead of them in a head to head tiebreaker, Houston could still back in ahead of us if it was a three way tie with Texas.

So there is no scenario that we could clinch a playoff spot after a win against New York on Wednesday. We could clinch later that night if we win the first two, and Seattle or Houston sweep each other.

[JN]

If the jays sweep the Yankees they re in right?

Yes. As the magic number against Houston and Seattle is 5, and one of Houston or Seattle have to lose at least 2 games between Monday-Wednesday, that would clinch it.

As noted in my post above, the only way the Jays can clinch earlier (the night before) is if they win the first two and one of Houston or Seattle are swept.

[Raider917]

If they do clinch before Sunday they shouldn't let gausman start that day. Maybe call up tiedermann Luke they did for Halladay when he had the no hitter going