GT: Jays @ Athletics / Sept 4-6

[I_Like_Dirt]

chemistry is an issue with the hitters this year. could it be because too many of the "culture" hitters were shipped out? did hitting coaches change this season?

something seems off for sure.

I'm not convinced "culture" means anything here. Most of this stuff is relatively explanatory if tougher to predict, tossed together with a bit of bad luck.

Springer is old. This was coming.

Varsho just isn't that good at the plate and is settling to where he normally hits once pitchers figure him out. He's still good in the field though.

Vlad is in his 5th season. He has 4 seasons with an OPS between .772 and .818 and 1 season with 1.002 and his current season fits within his norms rather than his outlier. He is who he is.

Kirk was amazing for 9 games in 2020 but has been a sub-.800 ops hitters ever since. He's been worse this year but he also is who he is.

Everyone else is pretty much within their career norms or better too. You could argue they don't handle pressure well but I've been saying that for the past few seasons and everyone here wanted to blame Montoyo.

There is a lot going on here but really, this team makes a lot more sense if you start from the position that Vlad is good but not great and his inability to make serious changes to his conditioning also applies to his ability to make positive changes to the other parts of his game. Doesn't mean he's bad because he isn't; he's just a good bat and nothing more. Same goes for Kirk but he has the advantage of having significantly more defensive value. If those two guys were performing to expectations (realistic or not) this team would be right there as a top 10 or even top 5 run-scoring offense and the team would have 4 or 5 more wins between Vlad and Kirk and would have a wildcard spot all but sewn up right now.

[Soldier]

Imagine facing the Guardians, Nationals, Rockies, and A's in succession, and not sweeping a single one of those series.

For today's stinker, thank you Vlad and George.

We will play against another bad team again. The royals are next. 3 game series at home starting Friday. After the royals, we won’t play bad teams again this season.

It will be the Rangers and the Red Sox at home then we will play 2 home and away series against the Yankees and 2 home and away series against the rays.

[Randle McMurphy]

Kirk was amazing for 9 games in 2020 but has been a sub-.800 ops hitters ever since. He's been worse this year but he also is who he is.

Kirk had a 129 wRC+ last year. A dropoff to 98 wRC+ definitely wasn't foreseen (although it's been climbing back up steadily for a while now).

[Randle McMurphy]

Imagine this offense without Davis Schneider.

I don't have to. That was the 2023 Jays for most of August while he was sitting on the bench for no reason anyone can understand.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Kirk was amazing for 9 games in 2020 but has been a sub-.800 ops hitters ever since. He's been worse this year but he also is who he is.

Kirk had a 129 wRC+ last year. A dropoff to 98 wRC+ definitely wasn't foreseen (although it's been climbing back up steadily for a while now).

Foreseen? Not exactly but he had a wRC+ of 106 the season before and he's even that 129 was closer to those other two seasons than the 165 in 9 games in 2020 that really set the imaginations racing. He's good but not that good.

A major issue here is imagining an upward trajectory on prospects that have shown no signs that they're actually on one but rather just dominating less developed players who eventually catch up to them. Vlad and Kirk are exactly those kinds of guys. And I can't restate enough that they aren't bad players because they aren't. They just aren't stars and they've been telling us who they are their entire careers with their play.

[SharoneWright]

Kirk was amazing for 9 games in 2020 but has been a sub-.800 ops hitters ever since. He's been worse this year but he also is who he is.

Kirk had a 129 wRC+ last year. A dropoff to 98 wRC+ definitely wasn't foreseen (although it's been climbing back up steadily for a while now).

no more babies.

[greekman]

jays are having the same trouble they had during the bautista era - richards and garcia are the new cecil and loup.

[Raps in 4]

Man, the Rangers really don't want to make the playoffs.

[Raps in 4]

chemistry is an issue with the hitters this year. could it be because too many of the "culture" hitters were shipped out? did hitting coaches change this season?

something seems off for sure.

I'm not convinced "culture" means anything here. Most of this stuff is relatively explanatory if tougher to predict, tossed together with a bit of bad luck.

Springer is old. This was coming.

Varsho just isn't that good at the plate and is settling to where he normally hits once pitchers figure him out. He's still good in the field though.

Vlad is in his 5th season. He has 4 seasons with an OPS between .772 and .818 and 1 season with 1.002 and his current season fits within his norms rather than his outlier. He is who he is.

Kirk was amazing for 9 games in 2020 but has been a sub-.800 ops hitters ever since. He's been worse this year but he also is who he is.

Everyone else is pretty much within their career norms or better too. You could argue they don't handle pressure well but I've been saying that for the past few seasons and everyone here wanted to blame Montoyo.

There is a lot going on here but really, this team makes a lot more sense if you start from the position that Vlad is good but not great and his inability to make serious changes to his conditioning also applies to his ability to make positive changes to the other parts of his game. Doesn't mean he's bad because he isn't; he's just a good bat and nothing more. Same goes for Kirk but he has the advantage of having significantly more defensive value. If those two guys were performing to expectations (realistic or not) this team would be right there as a top 10 or even top 5 run-scoring offense and the team would have 4 or 5 more wins between Vlad and Kirk and would have a wildcard spot all but sewn up right now.

Vlad and Kirk were both expected to be elite hitters. Instead, they're both just above average to average this season. They're also two young Latin players who were close with Teo and Lourdes. I can absolutely see the disappearance of that culture factoring into their downturn this year. Not enjoying your job makes you less likely to perform well at it.

I agree about Springer and Varsho. Springer is a dinosaur who has suffered a long list of injuries throughout his career. Varsho just isn't very good at hitting a baseball (his best offensive season ever was last season with a measly 108 wRC+).

[Asianiac_24]

The biggest problem is Vlad, the supposedly next MLB superstar and potential triple crown winner, is barely a 1 WAR player, and Kirk, our star catcher who we kept over the next supposedly great catcher (Moreno), is also **** the bed. Our supposed next Cy Young level pitcher Manoah also sucks ass.

They are all fat and out of shape.

Nutrition and weight clause need to be in their contracts going forward

[I_Like_Dirt]

Vlad and Kirk were both expected to be elite hitters. Instead, they're both just above average to average this season. They're also two young Latin players who were close with Teo and Lourdes. I can absolutely see the disappearance of that culture factoring into their downturn this year. Not enjoying your job makes you less likely to perform well at it.

I agree about Springer and Varsho. Springer is a dinosaur who has suffered a long list of injuries throughout his career. Varsho just isn't very good at hitting a baseball (his best offensive season ever was last season with a measly 108 wRC+).

Vlad and Kirk were "expected" to be elite hitters but by whom and why? Vlad has one outlier season as an elite hitter and has merely been a pretty good hitter for the rest of his career. Kirk has 9 games of being an elite hitter but then settled for merely being a pretty good hitter, which is still alright for a catcher. Vlad is basically right on his mark and Kirk has undershot a bit but it's evening out as the sample size increases.

So with no real track record of being elite hitters, and no real track record of changing their games or pushing their conditioning to elite levels, they were "expected" to change their norms and become elite hitters. Ignoring predictive judgments and such, with the benefit of hindsight it sure seems like there's a pretty simple explanation for this but it means fans need to accept that they overestimated the kids that developed early.

And it wouldn't hurt to rethink what we think we know about development curves along the way. Even Bo hasn't exactly taken a major step forward or anything. He's just been better at managing his conditioning to compensate for when his reflexes slip incrementally.

[Raps in 4]

Vlad and Kirk were both expected to be elite hitters. Instead, they're both just above average to average this season. They're also two young Latin players who were close with Teo and Lourdes. I can absolutely see the disappearance of that culture factoring into their downturn this year. Not enjoying your job makes you less likely to perform well at it.

I agree about Springer and Varsho. Springer is a dinosaur who has suffered a long list of injuries throughout his career. Varsho just isn't very good at hitting a baseball (his best offensive season ever was last season with a measly 108 wRC+).

Vlad and Kirk were "expected" to be elite hitters but by whom and why? Vlad has one outlier season as an elite hitter and has merely been a pretty good hitter for the rest of his career. Kirk has 9 games of being an elite hitter but then settled for merely being a pretty good hitter, which is still alright for a catcher. Vlad is basically right on his mark and Kirk has undershot a bit but it's evening out as the sample size increases.

So with no real track record of being elite hitters, and no real track record of changing their games or pushing their conditioning to elite levels, they were "expected" to change their norms and become elite hitters. Ignoring predictive judgments and such, with the benefit of hindsight it sure seems like there's a pretty simple explanation for this but it means fans need to accept that they overestimated the kids that developed early.

And it wouldn't hurt to rethink what we think we know about development curves along the way. Even Bo hasn't exactly taken a major step forward or anything. He's just been better at managing his conditioning to compensate for when his reflexes slip incrementally.

Vladdy had a 166 wRC+ in 2021 and 132 in 2022. That's one elite season, and one very good hitting season. He's well off that mark this year. Absolutely nothing in his hitting profile suggested that he should decline as much as he did this year.

Kirk was at 129 last year in 541 PAs. It could have been an outlier season, but the peripherals didn't suggest that.

They're also both young so productive seasons are more likely to be indicative of "breaking out" than to be outliers.

[Harry Palmer]

The biggest problem is Vlad, the supposedly next MLB superstar and potential triple crown winner, is barely a 1 WAR player, and Kirk, our star catcher who we kept over the next supposedly great catcher (Moreno), is also **** the bed. Our supposed next Cy Young level pitcher Manoah also sucks ass.

They are all fat and out of shape.

Nutrition and weight clause need to be in their contracts going forward

Yes, my working hypothesis has always been that the clock took its toll on the overweight guys more as the season began to wear on. And being more tired than you are used to all game can lead to a cascade of issues, self-doubt/loss of confidence, making worse decisions, slower reaction time, etc. I think when a change as significant as the pitch clock is introduced, you need to look out for the specific effects, and as soon as our 3 guys who struggle with weight began to struggle overall, it seemed too much of a coincidence to me. Can’t testify that’s what happened, and I also agree the ‘culture shift’ made the game itself less fun for them, but you ‘d really need to do some convincing to move me off my working theory.

The ~ could be good or bad news is Manoah is either on indeterminate leave from Buffalo until he gets his weight sorted, or he’s struggling with ~ depression or some personal crisis because dude hasn’t stepped on a mound or been working with coaches or anything for like a month down in upstate.

Manoah right now there’s an unknown, hope to god he’s not one of these ~ uniquely baseball stories who rises high (for long enough that it’s not that hitters/pitchers caught up and he couldn’t adjust) but for no obvious reason falls off a cliff and never really gets it back. Though I think in his case the clock/weight are the ‘obvious reason’ meaning if he can overcome that and w/e else (confidence for sure) he might be back on track by next year. Same holds true for Vlad and Kirk; we should know by ~ spring training if they’re guys to address the issue head on or not.

Lastly, I hated the Moreno trade at the time and it keeps looking worse. Moreno leads all of baseball (not just catchers) in DWAR at 2.5 (admittedly Varsho is second) and adds 1.3 OWAR in his first full season, compared with Varsho’s 0.6. I think we’re gonna be regretting this one for a long time.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

The biggest problem is Vlad, the supposedly next MLB superstar and potential triple crown winner, is barely a 1 WAR player, and Kirk, our star catcher who we kept over the next supposedly great catcher (Moreno), is also **** the bed. Our supposed next Cy Young level pitcher Manoah also sucks ass.

They are all fat and out of shape.

Nutrition and weight clause need to be in their contracts going forward

Yes, my working hypothesis has always been that the clock took its toll on the overweight guys more as the season began to wear on. And being more tired than you are used to all game can lead to a cascade of issues, self-doubt/loss of confidence, making worse decisions, slower reaction time, etc. I think when a change as significant as the pitch clock is introduced, you need to look out for the specific effects, and as soon as our 3 guys who struggle with weight began to struggle overall, it seemed too much of a coincidence to me. Can’t testify that’s what happened, and I also agree the ‘culture shift’ made the game itself less fun for them, but you ‘d really need to do some convincing to move me off my working theory.

The ~ could be good or bad news is Manoah is either on indeterminate leave from Buffalo until he gets his weight sorted, or he’s struggling with ~ depression or some personal crisis because dude hasn’t stepped on a mound or been working with coaches or anything for like a month down in upstate.

Manoah right now there’s an unknown, hope to god he’s not one of these ~ uniquely baseball stories who rises high (for long enough that it’s not that hitters/pitchers caught up and he couldn’t adjust) but for no obvious reason falls off a cliff and never really gets it back. Though I think in his case the clock/weight are the ‘obvious reason’ meaning if he can overcome that and w/e else (confidence for sure) he might be back on track by next year. Same holds true for Vlad and Kirk; we should know by ~ spring training if they’re guys to address the issue head on or not.

Lastly, I hated the Moreno trade at the time and it keeps looking worse. Moreno leads all of baseball (not just catchers) in DWAR at 2.5 (admittedly Varsho is second) and adds 1.3 OWAR in his first full season, compared with Varsho’s 0.6. I think we’re gonna be regretting this one for a long time.

i'll admit i would have likened to trade Kirk first since we had 3 catchers and Moreno on the cusp of being an MLB every day player.

it could lessen the damage if Varsho wins multiple gold gloves as a Jay.

[Fairview4Life]

Yes, my working hypothesis has always been that the clock took its toll on the overweight guys more as the season began to wear on.

Manoah was **** all season, there wasn't a slow decline as his weight made him more tired.

Vladdy's monthly WRC+ doesn't show a decline like that either, good April, trash May, middling Jun and July, trash August, middling September so far.
Mar/Apr 147
May - 93
Jun - 117
Jul - 109
Aug - 98
Sept/Oct - 127

Same with Kirk, no decline as the season went on. Good April, worst hitter in baseball for two straight months, good July, making baby Jesus cry in August, Davis Schenider so far in September.
Mar/Apr - 131
May - 58
Jun - 71
Jul - 126
Aug - 76
Sept/Oct - 162

[Fairview4Life]

it could lessen the damage if Varsho wins multiple gold gloves as a Jay.

Our outfield defense is the best in baseball, by a lot. The improvement over last season is significant, much more so than any hitting benefit Moreno would give us over Varsho, considering Moreno would be hitting instead of Jansen or Kirk, who are better hitters (although in the case of Kirk, he apparently ran afoul of the Monstars for a couple months this year).

[LBJKB24MJ23]

it could lessen the damage if Varsho wins multiple gold gloves as a Jay.

Our outfield defense is the best in baseball, by a lot. The improvement over last season is significant, much more so than any hitting benefit Moreno would give us over Varsho, considering Moreno would be hitting instead of Jansen or Kirk, who are better hitters (although in the case of Kirk, he apparently ran afoul of the Monstars for a couple months this year).

no doubt. it would be icing on the cake if they could be recognized via gold gloves as well.

[Harry Palmer]

The biggest problem is Vlad, the supposedly next MLB superstar and potential triple crown winner, is barely a 1 WAR player, and Kirk, our star catcher who we kept over the next supposedly great catcher (Moreno), is also **** the bed. Our supposed next Cy Young level pitcher Manoah also sucks ass.

They are all fat and out of shape.

Nutrition and weight clause need to be in their contracts going forward

Yes, my working hypothesis has always been that the clock took its toll on the overweight guys more as the season began to wear on. And being more tired than you are used to all game can lead to a cascade of issues, self-doubt/loss of confidence, making worse decisions, slower reaction time, etc. I think when a change as significant as the pitch clock is introduced, you need to look out for the specific effects, and as soon as our 3 guys who struggle with weight began to struggle overall, it seemed too much of a coincidence to me. Can’t testify that’s what happened, and I also agree the ‘culture shift’ made the game itself less fun for them, but you ‘d really need to do some convincing to move me off my working theory.

The ~ could be good or bad news is Manoah is either on indeterminate leave from Buffalo until he gets his weight sorted, or he’s struggling with ~ depression or some personal crisis because dude hasn’t stepped on a mound or been working with coaches or anything for like a month down in upstate.

Manoah right now there’s an unknown, hope to god he’s not one of these ~ uniquely baseball stories who rises high (for long enough that it’s not that hitters/pitchers caught up and he couldn’t adjust) but for no obvious reason falls off a cliff and never really gets it back. Though I think in his case the clock/weight are the ‘obvious reason’ meaning if he can overcome that and w/e else (confidence for sure) he might be back on track by next year. Same holds true for Vlad and Kirk; we should know by ~ spring training if they’re guys to address the issue head on or not.

Lastly, I hated the Moreno trade at the time and it keeps looking worse. Moreno leads all of baseball (not just catchers) in DWAR at 2.5 (admittedly Varsho is second) and adds 1.3 OWAR in his first full season, compared with Varsho’s 0.6. I think we’re gonna be regretting this one for a long time.

i'll admit i would have likened to trade Kirk first since we had 3 catchers and Moreno on the cusp of being an MLB every day player.

it could lessen the damage if Varsho wins multiple gold gloves as a Jay.

My idea was trade Jansen, let Moreno do most of the catching, Kirk DH but catch once or twice a week.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Yes, my working hypothesis has always been that the clock took its toll on the overweight guys more as the season began to wear on. And being more tired than you are used to all game can lead to a cascade of issues, self-doubt/loss of confidence, making worse decisions, slower reaction time, etc. I think when a change as significant as the pitch clock is introduced, you need to look out for the specific effects, and as soon as our 3 guys who struggle with weight began to struggle overall, it seemed too much of a coincidence to me. Can’t testify that’s what happened, and I also agree the ‘culture shift’ made the game itself less fun for them, but you ‘d really need to do some convincing to move me off my working theory.

The ~ could be good or bad news is Manoah is either on indeterminate leave from Buffalo until he gets his weight sorted, or he’s struggling with ~ depression or some personal crisis because dude hasn’t stepped on a mound or been working with coaches or anything for like a month down in upstate.

Manoah right now there’s an unknown, hope to god he’s not one of these ~ uniquely baseball stories who rises high (for long enough that it’s not that hitters/pitchers caught up and he couldn’t adjust) but for no obvious reason falls off a cliff and never really gets it back. Though I think in his case the clock/weight are the ‘obvious reason’ meaning if he can overcome that and w/e else (confidence for sure) he might be back on track by next year. Same holds true for Vlad and Kirk; we should know by ~ spring training if they’re guys to address the issue head on or not.

Lastly, I hated the Moreno trade at the time and it keeps looking worse. Moreno leads all of baseball (not just catchers) in DWAR at 2.5 (admittedly Varsho is second) and adds 1.3 OWAR in his first full season, compared with Varsho’s 0.6. I think we’re gonna be regretting this one for a long time.

i'll admit i would have likened to trade Kirk first since we had 3 catchers and Moreno on the cusp of being an MLB every day player.

it could lessen the damage if Varsho wins multiple gold gloves as a Jay.

My idea was trade Jansen, let Moreno do most of the catching, Kirk DH but catch once or twice a week.

Jansen probably had the least trade value probably. but here we are.

[Harry Palmer]

Yes, my working hypothesis has always been that the clock took its toll on the overweight guys more as the season began to wear on.

Manoah was **** all season, there wasn't a slow decline as his weight made him more tired.

Vladdy's monthly WRC+ doesn't show a decline like that either, good April, trash May, middling Jun and July, trash August, middling September so far.
Mar/Apr 147
May - 93
Jun - 117
Jul - 109
Aug - 98
Sept/Oct - 127

Same with Kirk, no decline as the season went on. Good April, worst hitter in baseball for two straight months, good July, making baby Jesus cry in August, Davis Schenider so far in September.
Mar/Apr - 131
May - 58
Jun - 71
Jul - 126
Aug - 76
Sept/Oct - 162

I definitely felt Vlad got off to a hot start and then tailed off, so that added to my hunch. But it wouldn’t be perfectly linear, it’s not like he is adding weight, might tick up when he gets a bit of a break, or w/e. But more, as mentioned I think it triggered other things that have their own ups and downs. Same to a lesser degree with Kirk, Both of them were at or close to their best at the beginning of the year, then I think it began and began to diversify…hitting is so mental, etc. but again, not a steady chart aimed down to the right, just overall. You’d expect hitting the wall and then the dog days to be the worst in my hypothesis, which I think your numbers seem to support. Thanks for the breakdown. Oh, with Manoah being a pitcher I think it was more crisis from the word go, they are the most immediately and acutely affected by the clock/pace. So with hitters it would first wear as the season began to lengthen, with pitchers it would begin to wear in games, period.