GT: Wildcard Series - TOR @ MIN - Oct 3 - 5, 4:38PM starts

[Potential]

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[duppyy]

If the jays have any self respect they will score 10 runs tomorrow

[Mehar]

How does an entire team just stop pulling the baseball for power for an entire season

The only reasonable explanation I have is coaching. Martinez and Hudgens should have been fired mid-season.

I mean, when your Hitting Coaches biggest achievement is hitting .190 with 1 HR and 7 RBIs for a team called the Grand Prairie AirHogs, what do you expect?

Im not sure whats going on here tbh, if it was a case of Nepotism that got him this job or if he has dirt on the Front Office. But it sure as hell wasnt his professional credentials that got him such a high profile job for a MAJOR LEAGUE team with World Series aspirations.

I actually previously made this point. I would prefer to have a MLB hitting coach, who actually played in the big leagues and was not a minor league scrub such as Martinez. Martinez should have been fired by July. There is no guarantee a new hitting coach would have drastically improved all the hitters; but he would have been no worse, and the move should have been made just before the All-Star break.

[Randle McMurphy]

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[Randle McMurphy]

How does an entire team just stop pulling the baseball for power for an entire season

The only reasonable explanation I have is coaching. Martinez and Hudgens should have been fired mid-season.

Whatever is the case they certainly haven't helped. Have never seen anything like this season before in watching baseball. Everyone is behind every fastball and nobody pulls the ball.

[C Court]

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[Potential]

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The 2023 Blue Jays. Where scoring 1 run is considered a good game. Thankfully this long and painful nightmare season finally ends tomorrow

[Raps in 4]

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Reading the comments is embarrassing. We're the only sports fan base that excuses losing on a regular basis.

[Randle McMurphy]

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The 2023 Blue Jays. Where scoring 1 run is considered a good game. Thankfully this long and painful nightmare season finally ends tomorrow

Soon we instead will be able to watch a team where the front office is currently feuding with its best player. And it's still gonna be way more enjoyable than this mess.

[Lateral Quicks]

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Don't you worry, Guillermo is getting extended for 20 years, $200MM the moment this season ends.

[JN]

As I posted a few days ago, in my comparison of OPS+ year over year, something has went wrong this year. Its not just a few players with big differences going both ways. Its mostly just one way. Someone has to answer to this and someone needs to be accountable for this.

In term of our 12 batters who had 200+ AB.
5 players had extreme falls in OPS+ of 20% or more this year (Springer, Kirk, Espinal, Whit, Jansen) ... 1 player had an increase of 20% (Belt)
2 other plays had significant falls in OPS+, 2 of our core assets, between 10-20% (Vlad, Varsho). ... i player had such an increase (KK)
7 significant falls vs 2 significant increases

Add the fact that we have made moves to improve our defence, at the expense of our offence the last few years and it makes for a frustrating offence. Then add the fact that we aren't great with RISP, and that as a team we mostly run like a bunch of morons, it makes things even more frustrating.

[Asianiac_24]

I know Biggio had a hot month last month, but he is still a .210 hitter with not much power. Biggio can’t be our #5 hitter

[Seasontickets]

As I posted a few days ago, in my comparison of OPS+ year over year, something has went wrong this year. Its not just a few players with big differences going both ways. Its mostly just one way. Someone has to answer to this and someone needs to be accountable for this.

In term of our 12 batters who had 200+ AB.
5 players had extreme falls in OPS+ of 20% or more this year (Springer, Kirk, Espinal, Whit, Jansen) ... 1 player had an increase of 20% (Belt)
2 other plays had significant falls in OPS+, 2 of our core assets, between 10-20% (Vlad, Varsho). ... i player had such an increase (KK)
7 significant falls vs 2 significant increases

Add the fact that we have made moves to improve our defence, at the expense of our offence the last few years and it makes for a frustrating offence. Then add the fact that we aren't great with RISP, and that as a team we mostly run like a bunch of morons, it makes things even more frustrating.

I suspect some of the regression comes from the emergence of the high fast ball as a dominant pitch to exploit many hitters. It seems like analytics found that the high velocity fast ball is the hardest pitch for a hitter to hit for damage and that's the evolution of pitching. I feel like this hurt the Jays approach alot as most the Jays hitters have that hole in their swing.

Additionally, it absolutely baffles me that after the change in shift restrictions, the Jays continued to advocate for opposite field, or middle swing. It seems to me that the shift ban benefits hard driven pull contact. IMO, the shift hurt hard pull hitters AND benefitted "control" type hitters who could go opposite field against any shift.

[Seasontickets]

Reviewing some of the comments by Rodriguez, I suspect that Minnesota's advantage on Gausman is strictly analytically driven.

The rule is simple DO NOT ever swing for any of Gausman's "low pitches" unless there is 2 strikes.

Why?

Consider a low pitch. It will either be a fastball or a splitter.

If a batter swings and its a fastball:

You will make contact with a borderline strike. It not likely going to driven hard since it won't be in the meat of the strike zone.
OR
You will miss the fast ball/foul ball.

If you swing and its a splitter:
You will not hit this pitch because it completely drops out of the strike zone and is unhittable.
OR
You will hit this pitch on your shoelaces, resulting in likely poor contact. Since this ball is rarely in the heart of the strike zone, or even a strike/hitting pitch either way.

Thus if you swing for a LOW PITCH: Of the four outcomes, 3 will be negative. 1 may be positive but very unlikely.


Second option - low pitch and don't swing and its a fastball:

It will hit the bottom of the zone and be called a strike. (unhittable anyways)
OR
It will miss the bottom of the zone and be called a ball.

Don't swing and its a splitter:

It will miss the bottom of the zone and be called a ball.
OR
It may hit the bottom of the zone BUT this is unlikely since the vertical drop in Gausman's splitter is extreme. If he wants to make it drop into the strike zone, Gausman will try to reduce the vertical drop (which is a very hard thing to control) or start the ball higher which will reduce the tunneling action. Either way, if I'm the opposition, I'm basically eliminating a low splitter being a called strike.

Hence NOT swinging on low pitch will result in 2 out of 3 positive outcomes. Or 3 of 4 positive outcomes if we count eliminating a called low splitter.

HENCE DON'T SWING. In aggregate over a long period of time, this will result in more positive outcomes.

This explains:

1) Why Minnesota players did not flinch at nasty low splitters - even their 8/9th hitters who should be terrible.
2) Why Minnesota they never/rarely swung on anything low in the zone
3) Why Correa looked at 3 straight middle low fastballs and struck out looking.

Counters:
I would attack the outer third on right handers. High fast ball and dropping outside splitter that will end up in the bottom quadrant.

Once Minnesota gets this possibility into their head, go back to the low pitch tunnel to attack the bottom of the strike zone. Minnesota looked so discipline in their approach. Baldelli probably said, if I see anyone swinging at a low borderline pitch, you're getting benched. LOL

[Michael Bradley]

How does an entire team just stop pulling the baseball for power for an entire season

The only reasonable explanation I have is coaching. Martinez and Hudgens should have been fired mid-season.

Almost every single hit or out made by the Jays today was hit to either dead center or the other way. I noticed them do that in a game against the Rangers as well (one of the games during the 4 game sweep), with Davis Schneider being the only player who pulled anything. The only explanation is that it's an organizational philosophy that the team has adopted, otherwise I can't wrap my head around an entire team having that approach with the exception of a player who spent most of the season in the minors and who conveniently doesn't even play at all anymore. I'm not sure if it's 100% on Martinez and Hudgens because both guys were there last season when the offense was good, but someone in the organization wants that approach, and it's horrendous.

[Boogie!]

I am stupidly optimistic that we win the WC series vs the Twins - 2-0.

I am stupidly optimistic that we win the next two games vs the Twins and win the WC series.

Please no more predictions. Delete all these posts.

[Boogie!]

Martínez was selected in the 17th round of the 2003 Major League Baseball draft by the Chicago White Sox, but did not sign and then attended the University of South Alabama.[1] In the 2006 draft, the Florida Marlins selected him in the 15th round.[2] Martínez appeared in 36 games for the Short Season-A Jamestown Jammers in 2006, batting .193 with 11 runs batted in (RBI).[1] In 2007 he played for the Class-A Greensboro Grasshoppers and the Advanced-A Jupiter Hammerheads, and hit a combined .260 with one home run and seven RBI in 48 games.[1] Martínez played his final season with the Marlins organization in 2008, hitting .201 in 61 games for Jupiter.[1]

In 2009, Martínez hit .304 with three home runs, 31 RBI, and 28 stolen bases for the Windy City ThunderBolts of the independent Frontier League.[1] He split the 2010 season with the ThunderBolts and the Lake County Fielders of the Northern League, and played his final season of professional baseball with the American Association's Grand Prairie AirHogs in 2011.[1]

Our Hitting Coach ladies and gentlemen!

Just because you were a **** player doesn't mean you're gonna be a bad coach. There's a guy that fixed aaron judges swing, who I said vlad should train with, that was basically some nobody high school teacher or something that just analyzed swings on his own to coach his son or something basic like that. Now tons of pros are training with this guy. He has a youtube channel called teachermanhitting. Pretty sure these were the same hitting coaches the year vlad had his mvp season.

[SharoneWright]

Reviewing some of the comments by Rodriguez, I suspect that Minnesota's advantage on Gausman is strictly analytically driven.

The rule is simple DO NOT ever swing for any of Gausman's "low pitches" unless there is 2 strikes.

Cool. Here's my "analytics" instructions for Bo:

Never ever ever swing at a breaking ball 3 1/2 feet off the plate.

(You need to be able to recognize pitch location before making a decision. Credit to the Twins for recognizing balls... I'm not sure that's new analytics though... "Gausman throws a splitter... don't fall for pitches down,, Jax throws a 'sweeper', don't fall for pitches outside")

[Seasontickets]

Reviewing some of the comments by Rodriguez, I suspect that Minnesota's advantage on Gausman is strictly analytically driven.

The rule is simple DO NOT ever swing for any of Gausman's "low pitches" unless there is 2 strikes.

Cool. Here's my "analytics" instructions for Bo:

Never ever ever swing at a breaking ball 3 1/2 feet off the plate.

(You need to be able to recognize pitch location before making a decision. Credit to the Twins for recognizing balls... I'm not sure that's new analytics though... "Gausman throws a splitter... don't fall for pitches down,, Jax throws a 'sweeper', don't fall for pitches outside")

Professionals gotta be professionals but sometimes, I laugh at the people acting like hitting a baseball isn't hard. As is maintaining discipline. This is where Minnesota did a good job of realizing and maintaining discipline that there is simply no winning proposition in the long run at swinging at anything LOW from Gausman. NONE.

[Randle McMurphy]

Reviewing some of the comments by Rodriguez, I suspect that Minnesota's advantage on Gausman is strictly analytically driven.

The rule is simple DO NOT ever swing for any of Gausman's "low pitches" unless there is 2 strikes.

Why?

Consider a low pitch. It will either be a fastball or a splitter.

If a batter swings and its a fastball:

You will make contact with a borderline strike. It not likely going to driven hard since it won't be in the meat of the strike zone.
OR
You will miss the fast ball/foul ball.

If you swing and its a splitter:
You will not hit this pitch because it completely drops out of the strike zone and is unhittable.
OR
You will hit this pitch on your shoelaces, resulting in likely poor contact. Since this ball is rarely in the heart of the strike zone, or even a strike/hitting pitch either way.

Thus if you swing for a LOW PITCH: Of the four outcomes, 3 will be negative. 1 may be positive but very unlikely.


Second option - low pitch and don't swing and its a fastball:

It will hit the bottom of the zone and be called a strike. (unhittable anyways)
OR
It will miss the bottom of the zone and be called a ball.

Don't swing and its a splitter:

It will miss the bottom of the zone and be called a ball.
OR
It may hit the bottom of the zone BUT this is unlikely since the vertical drop in Gausman's splitter is extreme. If he wants to make it drop into the strike zone, Gausman will try to reduce the vertical drop (which is a very hard thing to control) or start the ball higher which will reduce the tunneling action. Either way, if I'm the opposition, I'm basically eliminating a low splitter being a called strike.

Hence NOT swinging on low pitch will result in 2 out of 3 positive outcomes. Or 3 of 4 positive outcomes if we count eliminating a called low splitter.

HENCE DON'T SWING. In aggregate over a long period of time, this will result in more positive outcomes.

This explains:

1) Why Minnesota players did not flinch at nasty low splitters - even their 8/9th hitters who should be terrible.
2) Why Minnesota they never/rarely swung on anything low in the zone
3) Why Correa looked at 3 straight middle low fastballs and struck out looking.

Counters:
I would attack the outer third on right handers. High fast ball and dropping outside splitter that will end up in the bottom quadrant.

Once Minnesota gets this possibility into their head, go back to the low pitch tunnel to attack the bottom of the strike zone. Minnesota looked so discipline in their approach. Baldelli probably said, if I see anyone swinging at a low borderline pitch, you're getting benched. LOL

Yes I’d say this was effectively what was going on, but this approach can be dealt with by Gausman having good command of his FB (and has been dealt with many times before by him in that way). He just couldn’t throw that pitch at all where he wanted to in the first 3 innings and it resulted in him falling behind way too many hitters.