Bumgarner or Kershaw?

Post #1 » by **ATL Boy** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:59 am

Simple question: who would you rather have anchoring your rotation over the course of a full season (including playoffs). Kershaw has proven to be the best regular season pitcher in the game imo, but Bumgarner has gotten it done in the post season, and has statistically been the best World Series pitcher of all time.

El Turco · Post #2 » by **El Turco** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:00 am

yeah i'll take the one that gets results when it matters

RIPskaterdude · Post #3 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:10 am

Bum is the greatest postseason pitcher of all time

Higga · Post #4 » by **Higga** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:28 pm

If I'm guaranteed a playoff spot, I'm taking Bumgarner.

But for 162 games April-September, Kershaw is the man.

Quake Griffin · Post #5 » by **Quake Griffin** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:48 pm

Kershaw.

Yankeeknickfan · Post #6 » by **Yankeeknickfan** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:07 pm

Bumgarner good regular season pitcher amazing playoff pitcher pretty easy

BramptonYute · Post #7 » by **BramptonYute** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:01 pm

Bumgarner. Its not like he doesnt pitch well in the regular season.

BelgianMagic · Post #8 » by **BelgianMagic** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:51 pm

Kershaw was godlike during the regular season .. Not so much in the postseason

Bumgarner won 18 games with an ERA of 2.98, that's still a VERY good regular season .. His postseason doesn't need any comment :lol:

As good as Kershaw is, untill he proves he can do something similar as Bumgarner in the postseason, this is a no-brainer for me. And I'd say the exact same thing if I werent a Giants fan. Postseason is all that counts.

Regular season "stories" are great, but it's the October stories that people will talk about in the future.

dice · Post #9 » by **dice** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:06 am

this can be debated statistically to an extent

career regular season ERA:

bumgarner 3.06
kershaw 2.48 (advantage .58)

INCLUDING postseason:

bumgarner 2.98
kershaw 2.57 (advantage .39)

so bumgarner's postseason success shrinks the production gap by 1/3. that's treating postseason games as equally indicative of a player's long-term value as regular season games. which is probably untrue, as true colors tend to shine under the greatest pressure. so let's try one more comparison.

ERA including 4x weighted postseason:

bumgarner 2.81
kershaw 2.82

but are postseason games FOUR TIMES more likely to predict future postseason success than regular season games are? i seriously doubt it. and that would have to be the case to take bumgarner over kershaw even if just for playoff games alone (nevermind the huge baseball importance of the regular season)

would anybody seriously consider taking eli manning over his big brother in a big game given eli's 2 rings? not if they were smart

the moral of the story is that bumgarner's future postseason performance is significantly more likely to skew toward his regular season numbers than his postseason results to date. same with kershaw. same with any pitcher, though the degree would surely vary

RIPskaterdude · Post #10 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:34 am

dice wrote:this can be debated statistically to an extent

career regular season ERA:

bumgarner 3.06
kershaw 2.48 (advantage .58)

INCLUDING postseason:

bumgarner 2.98
kershaw 2.57 (advantage .39)

so bumgarner's postseason success shrinks the production gap by 1/3. that's treating postseason games as equally indicative of a player's long-term value as regular season games. which is probably untrue, as true colors tend to shine under the greatest pressure. so let's try one more comparison.

ERA including 4x weighted postseason:

bumgarner 2.81
kershaw 2.82

but are postseason games FOUR TIMES more likely to predict future postseason success than regular season games are? i seriously doubt it. and that would have to be the case to take bumgarner over kershaw even if just for playoff games alone (nevermind the huge baseball importance of the regular season)

would anybody seriously consider taking eli manning over his big brother in a big game given eli's 2 rings? not if they were smart

the moral of the story is that bumgarner's future postseason performance is significantly more likely to skew toward his regular season numbers than his postseason results to date. same with kershaw. same with any pitcher, though the degree would surely vary

Where are you getting your stats from? Kershaw's ERA in the post season is 5.12 and his career regular season ERA is 2.48. How the hell are you getting 2.57 if you INCLUDE postseason?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... itch.shtml

dice · Post #11 » by **dice** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:37 am

RIPskaterdude wrote:
dice wrote:this can be debated statistically to an extent

career regular season ERA:

bumgarner 3.06
kershaw 2.48 (advantage .58)

INCLUDING postseason:

bumgarner 2.98
kershaw 2.57 (advantage .39)

so bumgarner's postseason success shrinks the production gap by 1/3. that's treating postseason games as equally indicative of a player's long-term value as regular season games. which is probably untrue, as true colors tend to shine under the greatest pressure. so let's try one more comparison.

ERA including 4x weighted postseason:

bumgarner 2.81
kershaw 2.82

but are postseason games FOUR TIMES more likely to predict future postseason success than regular season games are? i seriously doubt it. and that would have to be the case to take bumgarner over kershaw even if just for playoff games alone (nevermind the huge baseball importance of the regular season)

would anybody seriously consider taking eli manning over his big brother in a big game given eli's 2 rings? not if they were smart

the moral of the story is that bumgarner's future postseason performance is significantly more likely to skew toward his regular season numbers than his postseason results to date. same with kershaw. same with any pitcher, though the degree would surely vary

Where are you getting your stats from?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... itch.shtml

same place you are. you're not looking at ERA

RIPskaterdude · Post #12 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:41 am

wut, it says 4 yrs (6 series) 5.12 ERA under postseason pitching

Quake Griffin · Post #13 » by **Quake Griffin** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:11 am

strong math coming out of the bay area.

:lol:

Post #14 » by **Stanford** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:14 am

I think you mean Beach

El Turco · Post #15 » by **El Turco** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:20 am

Quake Griffin wrote:strong math coming out of the bay area.

Pitchers and catchers, brah

RIPskaterdude · Post #16 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:55 am

i am confused

Post #17 » by **Ralnor** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:02 pm

Can I have both? If not, I will take Kershaw.

Post #18 » by **HMFFL** » Sat Nov 1, 2014 3:56 am

Such a difficult choice to decide between the two.
Bumgarner is the popular choice right now due to what he just accomplished in the World Series.
I'll go with Kershaw.

TheKingofSting · Post #19 » by **TheKingofSting** » Sun Nov 2, 2014 2:30 am

You can't go wrong with either one but give Mad Bum because of postseason success.

Mehar · Post #20 » by **Mehar** » Sat Nov 8, 2014 5:57 am

TheKingofSting wrote:You can't go wrong with either one but give Mad Bum because of postseason success.

Absolutely, plus in terms of payroll- Bumgarner is much better bargain. He is under control for the next 5 seasons essentially (club options of 12 M for both 2018 and 2019). He is making 6.75 M in 2015, 9.75 M in 2016, and 11.5 M in 2017. Compare that with Kershaw making 32-33 M each season during the same time period, and it is a no-brainer.

Who would you rather have anchoring your rotation?