Juan Soto turns down $440M Contract

azcatz11 · Post #1 » by **azcatz11** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:48 am

Would have been the richest deal in MLB history. He's only 23 and will be a FA in 2 years. There are rumors he could get $600M+ on the open market.

Big J · Post #2 » by **Big J** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:00 am

BoatsNZones · Post #3 » by **BoatsNZones** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:02 am

And now he's definitely getting traded this season and will get a haul for them, which is also interesting. He's not having a particularly great year either.

Seeing a league without salary cap or limits on seasons owned has always been interesting. A true open market.

Granted, the two best players in baseball play on the same team (one as an elite pitcher/hitter) and they still have no chance of making the playoffs.

BoatsNZones · Post #4 » by **BoatsNZones** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:05 am

Big J wrote:Who?

A top/young player of a major sport with an open market. Think KD on OKC at 23 with 2 years left on his contract turning down 440 million (but OKC being worse, and other teams being able to offer more).

ty 4191 · Post #5 » by **ty 4191** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:07 am

Big J wrote:Who?

Greatest young hitter since Ted Williams, 80 years ago.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/04/13/juan-soto-hitting-genius-daily-cover

Ilovethebay · Post #6 » by **Ilovethebay** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:15 am

Big J wrote:Who?

Wow LOL. Not a big baseball fan are you ?

Jasen777 · Post #7 » by **Jasen777** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:24 am

For 15 years. He can get way more per year with a couple of shorter contracts.

jehosafats · Post #8 » by **jehosafats** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:40 am

BoatsNZones wrote:And now he's definitely getting traded this season and will get a haul for them, which is also interesting. He's not having a particularly great year either.

Seeing a league without salary cap or limits on seasons owned has always been interesting. A true open market.

Granted, the two best players in baseball play on the same team (one as an elite pitcher/hitter) and they still have no chance of making the playoffs.

He hasn't been playing great at all this season.

Judge is playing lights out right now. He's going for the bag. Which is why the Yankees might let him walk in the offseason.

BoatsNZones · Post #9 » by **BoatsNZones** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:42 am

Jasen777 wrote:For 15 years. He can get way more per year with a couple of shorter contracts.

*IF he stays healthy and does not keep up his current seasons pace* (which has been middling All Star level).

They were attempting to pay him for the next 7-9 years, not 10-15 (despite actually having to pay him, ala Pujols). But as an open market, they had to offer him the lifetime contract as a half billionaire. He's betting on himself, and frankly it's smart because if he can avoid injury by the age of 25, the actual free market prices for his 10 year contracts from the Yanks/Sox/Dodgers should exceed 500 million. Still a risk though.

Thinking on it a bit more, there is the fact that the economy may be going through some of the toughest moments of the past couple decades in 2024/2025 (when he's due for his next contract), and that could definitely also effect his value (attendance numbers as well as jersey sales, etc all being down). This will be an interesting one to look back on.

poultryfan · Post #10 » by **poultryfan** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:46 am

Jasen777 wrote:For 15 years. He can get way more per year with a couple of shorter contracts.

For sure. It's just another Tatis Jr style contract.

Jasen777 · Post #11 » by **Jasen777** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:48 am

BoatsNZones wrote:
Jasen777 wrote:For 15 years. He can get way more per year with a couple of shorter contracts.

*IF he stays healthy and does not keep up his current seasons pace* (which has been middling All Star level).

They're paying him for the next 7-9 years, not 10-15.

That is the risk, yes.

Dominator83 · Post #12 » by **Dominator83** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:14 am

That's insane. Especially a sport like baseball where 1 guy can only do so much for a team. Look at Anaheim. They have two generational players and are still awful.

HurricaneDij25 · Post #13 » by **HurricaneDij25** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:17 am

These teams need to start refusing to trade their star players to the Dodgers.

Mariners farm system is stacked… Would be interesting there.

celticfan42487 · Post #14 » by **celticfan42487** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:19 am

Is he better than... what is that guys name Troutman?

The one that's been considered the best for a long time

Bolivar · Post #15 » by **Bolivar** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:24 am

Letsgokings · Post #16 » by **Letsgokings** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:27 am

celticfan42487 wrote:Is he better than... what is that guys name Troutman?

The one that's been considered the best for a long time

It's just trout lol

DelAbbot · Post #17 » by **DelAbbot** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:39 am

This is not surprising as Juan Soto is a 23yo superstar and this contract (29.3M AAV) is below many of other superstars' AAV

Top total dollar values (w AAV) in MLB today are Trout, Betts, Linder, Harper. In order for these 5: $426.5/35.5, $365/30.4, $341/34.1, and $330/25.4.

Additionally, it's rumored that the 440M is heavily back loaded in the final 6 years (out of the 15). Given the inflation rates we are seeing today and likely next few years, it means the PV of that 440M contract is meaningfully less than 440M (discounting / time value of money)

Read on Twitter

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Roy T · Post #18 » by **Roy T** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:47 am

I thought Ohtani is the second coming of Babe Ruth?

DelAbbot · Post #19 » by **DelAbbot** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:49 am

Dominater wrote:That's insane. Especially a sport like baseball where 1 guy can only do so much for a team. Look at Anaheim. They have two generational players and are still awful.

Agreed.

In MLB winning a game is much more random and depends on the all 9 positions + bullpen for winning a game. So in any given playoff game, about 12 players impact winning / losing. You need to ensure all 12 players have good / high true talent level.

In NBA, a playoff rotation is about 7 players and playoff offense heavily depends on superstars. You can win a championship with 1 superstar, 2 all-stars and rest being role players.

Paying a superstar a huge salary in MLB makes no sense if rest of team is not already contender-level. Paying a superstar max salary in NBA makes a lot sense in any context, because that superstar player is underpaid (for their impact on winning).

However, there is an economic argument for paying to keep Ohtani / Trout huge salaries, because of economic impact on the franchise (merchandise, attracting fans, advertising goes up).

Post #20 » by **JDR720** » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:51 am

I will never understand why MLB teams give these contracts.

Has it ever worked? The impact of star players in baseball isn't that much higher than "normal" all-star level players or even solid starters.

The Angels have Mike Trout and Ohtani (who is insane) and they're still average as can be. And have been for a decade, they had Trout and Pujols for a while too and still sucked.

Look at the Braves. They let Freeman leave, signed a cheaper replacement (Olson) and Acuna has missed half the season (highest paid player), Mike Soroka has missed the whole season (best pitcher) and Albies has been out for a while... and they have been better than they did last season. They won 13? Games in a row recently.

For an even more extreme example, look at the Orioles. They have around a 30m dollar payroll TOTAL and are in the playoff hunt. The Mariners too, they've won 13 in a row.