Predict who wins MVP

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Who will win MVP?

Jalen Hurts
4
11%
Lamar Jackson
10
29%
Patrick Mahomes
3
9%
C.J. Stroud
0
No votes
Brock Purdy
5
14%
Christian McCaffrey
4
11%
Tyreek Hill
4
11%
Dak Prescott
2
6%
Josh Allen
0
No votes
Other
3
9%
 
Total votes: 35

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El Turco
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#601 » by El Turco » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:22 pm

wembambamya wrote:Purdy wont play another game, he doesnt have a chance to improve his candidacy, of course you would expect his odds to go down. Not to mention odds dont mean anything when the leader is at -20000, right now it is just sportsbooks taking gullible cowboy fans money lol


This part is true, some books even removed Niners players for MVP since they wont play.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#602 » by El Turco » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:24 pm

wembambamya wrote:
El Turco wrote:
Micah Prescott wrote:
It is the total touchdowns that matter and not how many passes it took them to get the touchdown.

Dak has put up more points than Purdy...that is the only production that counts.


that's beyond dumb considering throwing touchdown is as much about play calls in the redzone as it is about quarterback's skill, you can have a running back get 74 yards only then have your quarterback throw a 1 yard fade for a touchdown. Even with all that Dak managed to put up one extra touchdown against a worse strength of schedule, if he had played Ravens he would be up there with Josh Allen in turnover department

Prescott produces less with more chances, less per attempt, and statistically cant compete with Purdy. Pretty much everyone of these combo stats have Purdy leading Dak and rest of the league, heck difference between Purdy and Dak is larger than difference between Dak and Minshew with some of them :lol:


Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao


Pretty much what I was saying but you were more succinct :)

btw it is 2024 :lol:
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#603 » by wembambamya » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:27 pm

El Turco wrote:
wembambamya wrote:
El Turco wrote:
that's beyond dumb considering throwing touchdown is as much about play calls in the redzone as it is about quarterback's skill, you can have a running back get 74 yards only then have your quarterback throw a 1 yard fade for a touchdown. Even with all that Dak managed to put up one extra touchdown against a worse strength of schedule, if he had played Ravens he would be up there with Josh Allen in turnover department

Prescott produces less with more chances, less per attempt, and statistically cant compete with Purdy. Pretty much everyone of these combo stats have Purdy leading Dak and rest of the league, heck difference between Purdy and Dak is larger than difference between Dak and Minshew with some of them :lol:


Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao


Pretty much what I was saying but you were more succinct :)


What is your go-to stat for quarterbacks? I wish espn opened up QBR so we know what they are analyzing lol
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#604 » by El Turco » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:56 pm

wembambamya wrote:
El Turco wrote:
wembambamya wrote:
Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao


Pretty much what I was saying but you were more succinct :)


What is your go-to stat for quarterbacks? I wish espn opened up QBR so we know what they are analyzing lol


Usually I like to take few stats into my evaluation separately instead of combining them but, among the commonly used ones my favorite is probably Adjusted Net Yards per Pass attempt, I feel like the weights it puts on TDs and Int little bit more fair and doesnt have some of the redundancies some of the more traditional stats like QB rating has.

If we want to go little bit more complex EPA per dropback is good. Interesting enough Lamar had the best EPA/DB game of the season against the Dolphins. That why I am less bummed about Lamar winning it, even though his overall profile doesnt come close to Purdy, he really turned it on when it matters most and that counts for something, he has had the second best EPA/DB last three weeks only trailing ya boy Baker :)

Basic EPA is part of ESPN total QBR too but they use their own game winning percentages which gives odd results frequently. I think it is not too difficult to find out how they calculate total QBR, it is just I dont really trust the data they produce to calculate. It is espn, how much can you expect.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#605 » by Micah Prescott » Thu Jan 4, 2024 7:01 pm

wembambamya wrote:
El Turco wrote:
Micah Prescott wrote:
It is the total touchdowns that matter and not how many passes it took them to get the touchdown.

Dak has put up more points than Purdy...that is the only production that counts.


that's beyond dumb considering throwing touchdown is as much about play calls in the redzone as it is about quarterback's skill, you can have a running back get 74 yards only then have your quarterback throw a 1 yard fade for a touchdown. Even with all that Dak managed to put up one extra touchdown against a worse strength of schedule, if he had played Ravens he would be up there with Josh Allen in turnover department

Prescott produces less with more chances, less per attempt, and statistically cant compete with Purdy. Pretty much everyone of these combo stats have Purdy leading Dak and rest of the league, heck difference between Purdy and Dak is larger than difference between Dak and Minshew with some of them :lol:


Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao

"Moar points" for the offense
"Less points" for the defense

that is what this whole game boils down to.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#606 » by wembambamya » Thu Jan 4, 2024 7:17 pm

Micah Prescott wrote:
wembambamya wrote:
El Turco wrote:
that's beyond dumb considering throwing touchdown is as much about play calls in the redzone as it is about quarterback's skill, you can have a running back get 74 yards only then have your quarterback throw a 1 yard fade for a touchdown. Even with all that Dak managed to put up one extra touchdown against a worse strength of schedule, if he had played Ravens he would be up there with Josh Allen in turnover department

Prescott produces less with more chances, less per attempt, and statistically cant compete with Purdy. Pretty much everyone of these combo stats have Purdy leading Dak and rest of the league, heck difference between Purdy and Dak is larger than difference between Dak and Minshew with some of them :lol:


Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao

"Moar points" for the offense
"Less points" for the defense

that is what this whole game boils down to.


Acumen of an average Cowboys fan ahah.

BuT YoU aRe GeNeRaLiZinG. Yeah someone tell this dude MOAR POINTS dont just appear, you need yards and stuff ahaha
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#607 » by Mariner » Thu Jan 4, 2024 9:21 pm

wembambamya wrote:
Micah Prescott wrote:
wembambamya wrote:
Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao

"Moar points" for the offense
"Less points" for the defense

that is what this whole game boils down to.


Acumen of an average Cowboys fan ahah.

BuT YoU aRe GeNeRaLiZinG. Yeah someone tell this dude MOAR POINTS dont just appear, you need yards and stuff ahaha

You are a complete moron.
Oh I forgot. lol.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#608 » by Mariner » Thu Jan 4, 2024 9:29 pm

wembambamya wrote:
Mr B wrote:Even though I don’t think he should win it I think there is still a very good chance that Dak wins it.


Here another favor for those on the spectrum and cant scroll back 3 pages ahah

You just my point but you’re not smart enough to have figured it out.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#609 » by Micah Prescott » Thu Jan 4, 2024 9:40 pm

wembambamya wrote:
Micah Prescott wrote:
wembambamya wrote:
Yeah never seen anyone evaluate quarterbacks just by touchdowns, you would think in 2023 humans can have more nuanced discussion than "MOAR POINTS" lmao

"Moar points" for the offense
"Less points" for the defense

that is what this whole game boils down to.


Acumen of an average Cowboys fan ahah.

BuT YoU aRe GeNeRaLiZinG. Yeah someone tell this dude MOAR POINTS dont just appear, you need yards and stuff ahaha

Dak made moar points appear than Purdy. The same yardage. Who cares how many throws were involved.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#610 » by Micah Prescott » Thu Jan 4, 2024 9:44 pm

The fact that Dak has more attempts actually just shows that the Cowboys rely of Dak more than the 49ers rely on Purdy. Because they have CMC to run the ball. They don't need Purdy as much.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#611 » by El Turco » Fri Jan 5, 2024 12:40 am

More like Purdy beats his opponents so badly that last quarter or two is largely about running out the clock.

Dak gets less done with more, this is not really up for debate. And Josh Allen scores the most touchdowns, he had no shot at MVP either .
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#612 » by goober » Fri Jan 5, 2024 12:42 am

where did this josh allen train come from :lol:
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#613 » by El Turco » Fri Jan 5, 2024 1:00 am

goober wrote:where did this josh allen train come from :lol:


When every argument collapses around you...

Dak is not even the top quarterback in his division, Hurts has MoAr touchdowns.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#614 » by Mariner » Fri Jan 5, 2024 1:30 am

The MVP doesn’t go the best or outstanding player so trying to use stats to justify a pick is just silly.
The first priority is having the best record in football.
Eight of the last 10 had the best record.
Silly way to look at it but it’s the truth.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#615 » by Mr B » Fri Jan 5, 2024 2:00 am

El Turco wrote:More like Purdy beats his opponents so badly that last quarter or two is largely about running out the clock.

Dak gets less done with more, this is not really up for debate. And Josh Allen scores the most touchdowns, he had no shot at MVP either .

Dak gets less done with more? So you would take Pollard, Ferguson, and Cooks over CMC, Kittles, and Aiyuk? What about Trent Williams? Would you rather have him or Tyron Smith/Chuma Edoga? Dak gets more done with less. Purdy has the best roster in the NFL. Purdy is good but let’s not act like he’s playing with a bunch of scrubs.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#616 » by Mr B » Fri Jan 5, 2024 2:01 am

El Turco wrote:
goober wrote:where did this josh allen train come from :lol:


When every argument collapses around you...

Dak is not even the top quarterback in his division, Hurts has MoAr touchdowns.

Hurts has a lot more turnovers too.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#617 » by QB_Eagles » Fri Jan 5, 2024 2:57 am

goober wrote:where did this josh allen train come from :lol:

I am responsible for that train.
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#618 » by QB_Eagles » Fri Jan 5, 2024 3:03 am

Micah Prescott wrote:"Moar points" for the offense
"Less points" for the defense

that is what this whole game boils down to.

But the QB is involved in a lot more plays than the one that ultimately results in a TD.

That's why advanced stats models try to calculate how more likely a QB's play is to add points in any given situation compared to the average QB.

Here's one such example showing Josh Allen is da real MVP: https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#619 » by Mr Swagtastic » Fri Jan 5, 2024 3:03 am

MVP is Lamar no doubt what he did to the best AFC (obviously he couldn't play his team) and NFC should lock his status in as the MVP. CMC, Dak, Hill, Perdy, Garrett and AJ Brown had great years but Lamar just took his game to another level in the second half of the year. Thing I liked about Lamar this year is after Stephen A. Smith trashed him saying he's turnover prone and can't win big games. Lamar didn't trash him throw a temper tantrum or anything like that he just went out there and balled out proving this year he's worth his deal and making the teams who didn't want to sign him look foolish
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Re: Predict who wins MVP 

Post#620 » by QB_Eagles » Fri Jan 5, 2024 3:14 am

Micah Prescott wrote:Purdy has thrown for 43 more yards than Dak :lol:

That's like 1 deep pass to Deebo

More liek one screen pass to Kittle that he takes for 43 yards after the catch.

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