Ivey and Duren Extensions

[Crymson]

The extension deadline has passed. Ivey and Duren will be headed to free agency (restricted or otherwise).

[tmorgan]

My faith in Langdon grows. This was the correct way.

[Snakebites]

The extension deadline has passed. Ivey and Duren will be headed to free agency (restricted or otherwise).

Well, at least now we can stop talking about that.

I do hope it doesn't create lockerroom issues. But the right decision was made.

[MrBigShot]

Camara gets ~20 mil a year, Dyson Daniels and Braun each get $25 mil a year

All 3 of those guys are quality starting caliber two way players. Odds are that whatever Ivey and Duren had in mind was a stretch.

[Snakebites]

Do we have any indication that there were even substantial talks?

[Invictus88]

Camara gets ~20 mil a year, Dyson Daniels and Braun each get $25 mil a year

All 3 of those guys are quality starting caliber two way players. Odds are that whatever Ivey and Duren had in mind was a stretch.

It's nice to see some quality players get more down-to-earth deals before the deadline was hit. It's a nice counterbalance to the wonky deals earlier.

I like Duren -- or at least the version of him that I think he can become. Maybe I am a sucker but he's only 21.

I still maintain he'll get somewhere around Nic Claxton money (4/100, 97 guaranteed) which I think would be fine after showing some improvements this season. I'm also fine if we were to ship him for someone others felt was more worthy of that amount.

One thing I am not a fan of, however, is somehow letting him walk for nothing because we don't want to pay him 25 million. I do think there is value in not wasting years with Cade, etc. I'm all for wanting to upgrade players that have deficiencies. But remember how bad things were for Cade *before* he had lob threats? When us getting Marvin Bagley felt like a huge improvement? Let's not do that again.

[Snakebites]

Camara, Daniels, and Braun may not be stars but they all have proven and highly valuable skillsets.

I personally like Duren and Ivey- they both seem like great guys. But they've not proven they have a clear, identifiable, and viable role for this team.

And if Duren was really angling for 30 mill per year like has been reported, he's headed for disappointment.

[tmorgan]

Ivey’s in a bad spot.

His team played better without him last year. The causality is questionable, but the numbers are not. He got hurt and hasn’t recovered well. His current issue is the other leg, but anyone that’s had something knows recovery from one issue can cause others.

Even optimistically, he’s going to have a limited sample of games at full strength this year. He may get back on the court in 2025, but I wouldn’t expect him to be fully integrated until at least January.

I’m guessing he ends up signing a shorter deal with us as a RFA, probably for lower annual value to get a PO (if we’ll offer one) after year two. Something like a flat 3/60, with an out for him on the last year. This is assuming he doesn’t come back really strong in the second half of this year, of course. That deal gives him guaranteed money and gives us a shorter commitment to mitigate risk. If he crushes it as a sidekick for Cade, he gets really big dollars three years from now.

Duren’s situation, to me, is way more complicated. He knows he’s a great fit with Cade on offense, and he isn’t a black hole with the ball or anything. Seeing strong finishes after all of Drummond’s weak ass layups is awesome. It’s all down to how much there is to unlock with his mind defensively. We’re clearly beyond him ever making an all-defense team, but a handful of smaller improvements can make him average. Having a third big that’s as good defensively as Stew is helps, too, because JBB can change minutes as needed if there’s a big Duren can’t handle.

I’m ambivalent on keeping Ivey long term. I don’t think the fit is great, and I don’t think his upside is as impressive as some do. Duren, though, is a better fit, even though he has problems to work on. 30 a year is ridiculous, but if he shows some minor but encouraging improvement on defense this year, I hsve no problem with a 4/100 offer next summer. I’d be surprised if any other team offered more than that. They know as well as we do he’s a hole in any defense he plays in.

[Crymson]

I like Duren -- or at least the version of him that I think he can become. Maybe I am a sucker but he's only 21. I still maintain he'll get somewhere around Nic Claxton money (4/100, 97 guaranteed) which I think would be fine after showing some improvements this season. I'm also fine if we were to ship him for someone others felt was more worthy of that amount.

I'm probably a broken record here, but it would take a huge defensive leap for him to reach the realm of solid defense, and solid defense is what any traditional big in today's league needs in order to be worthwhile. Unfortunately for us, level of NBA experience rather than age is the most operative factor in terms of development outcomes. If a player just needs to learn, then he's going to make progress in his first few rotation seasons.

I'm obviously pulling for Duren to make that leap, but the odds are against him, and I think that would've kept the FO from extending him at even a substantially lesser rate than the utterly absurd salary he was demanding -- that, and the fact that he spent the lion's share of the last two seasons refusing to put in a basic professional level of effort.

One thing I am not a fan of, however, is somehow letting him walk for nothing because we don't want to pay him 25 million. I do think there is value in not wasting years with Cade, etc. I'm all for wanting to upgrade players that have deficiencies. But remember how bad things were for Cade *before* he had lob threats? When us getting Marvin Bagley felt like a huge improvement? Let's not do that again.

Generally speaking, committing to a player who's likely to provide poor value when it matters most simply because one doesn't want to look for a replacement is a lot like marrying a partner one is unhappy with simply in order to avoid finding someone else: it's extremely likely to lead to bad outcomes, and it closes off the path to something better.

If Duren can't be a viable postseason starter, then that's the foremost consideration rather than whom they're going to replace him with. As of last season, his defense is bad enough that he isn't a viable postseason starter.

[Crymson]

I do hope it doesn't create lockerroom issues. But the right decision was made.

If it does, then that's a them problem, and it's further reason why waiting was the right idea. Neither of them has earned anything.

[Billl]

I think the decision on ivey was pretty easy with all the injuries. Unless he was coming for MLE money, he's got to prove more before you commit.

Duren? That could bite us. He's already shown he can be an NBA starting center in the playoffs. It's not a question of "if" - he already did it. Obviously we don't know how far apart they were in terms of the number, but he's going to get paid.

[Crymson]

Duren? That could bite us. He's already shown he can be an NBA starting center in the playoffs.

It's not a question of "if" - he already did it.

How so?

He had a bad series. Despite being protected to the maximum degree of JB's ability -- protected from KAT by Tobias being assigned to him instead, protected by being assigned to a perimeter non-shooter in Hart and sagged into the paint, protected from switches in drop regardless of the cost to the defense -- and up against a bad offensive coach who made no effort to attack him, he still had a bad series defensively. He was for the most part in a very easy defensive scenario that would provide the average center with the ability to make a big impact on defense, but he characteristically provided bad defensive value instead. When JB was unable to protect him from KAT, Duren got turned into pavement. And because he can do little for himself offensively, the Knicks were able to make him a non-factor on offense for long stretches simply by trapping Cade on the pick-and-roll.

In short, Duren faced an ideal defensive matchup and was protected to the maximum degree possible and flunked defensively anyway. If he'd gone up against the Pacers with their surfeit of shooters and a genius offensive coach who'd attacked him constantly, things would have gotten extremely ugly, and the average postseason scenario he'll face will be a lot closer to that than to the scenario he faced against the Knicks.

[Billl]

Duren? That could bite us. He's already shown he can be an NBA starting center in the playoffs.

It's not a question of "if" - he already did it.

How so?

He had a bad series. Despite being protected to the maximum degree of JB's ability -- protected from KAT by Tobias being assigned to him instead, protected by being assigned to a perimeter non-shooter in Hart and sagged into the paint, protected from switches in drop regardless of the cost to the defense -- and up against a bad offensive coach who made no effort to attack him, he still had a bad series defensively. He was for the most part in a very easy defensive scenario that would provide the average center with the ability to make a big impact on defense, but he characteristically provided bad defensive value instead. When JB was unable to protect him from KAT, Duren got turned into pavement. And because he can do little for himself offensively, the Knicks were able to make him a non-factor on offense for long stretches simply by trapping Cade on the pick-and-roll.

In short, Duren faced an ideal defensive matchup and was protected to the maximum degree possible and flunked defensively anyway. If he'd gone up against the Pacers with their surfeit of shooters and a genius offensive coach who'd attacked him constantly, things would have gotten extremely ugly, and the average postseason scenario he'll face will be a lot closer to that than to the scenario he faced against the Knicks.

You must have watched a different series than I did. Duren was very good defensively. He lead the teams in blocks and rebounds and shot 65% from the field and a stunning 83% at the line. We also started letting him handle the ball and he responded with the second best assist to turnover rate on the team. The guy put up a double double on great efficiency and the the team would have been swept without him.

[theBigLip]

Duren? That could bite us. He's already shown he can be an NBA starting center in the playoffs.

It's not a question of "if" - he already did it.

How so?

He had a bad series. Despite being protected to the maximum degree of JB's ability -- protected from KAT by Tobias being assigned to him instead, protected by being assigned to a perimeter non-shooter in Hart and sagged into the paint, protected from switches in drop regardless of the cost to the defense -- and up against a bad offensive coach who made no effort to attack him, he still had a bad series defensively. He was for the most part in a very easy defensive scenario that would provide the average center with the ability to make a big impact on defense, but he characteristically provided bad defensive value instead. When JB was unable to protect him from KAT, Duren got turned into pavement. And because he can do little for himself offensively, the Knicks were able to make him a non-factor on offense for long stretches simply by trapping Cade on the pick-and-roll.

In short, Duren faced an ideal defensive matchup and was protected to the maximum degree possible and flunked defensively anyway. If he'd gone up against the Pacers with their surfeit of shooters and a genius offensive coach who'd attacked him constantly, things would have gotten extremely ugly, and the average postseason scenario he'll face will be a lot closer to that than to the scenario he faced against the Knicks.

You must have watched a different series than I did. Duren was very good defensively. He lead the teams in blocks and rebounds and shot 65% from the field and a stunning 83% at the line. We also started letting him handle the ball and he responded with the second best assist to turnover rate on the team. The guy put up a double double on great efficiency and the the team would have been swept without him.

Totally agree. Also, having Tobias on KAT makes sense - not from a Duren deficiency, but Tobias could get out on the wing easier to guard a unique stretch 5 player.

[Crymson]

You must have watched a different series than I did. Duren was very good defensively.

In what respect?

You've addressed nothing of what I've just written.

He lead the teams in blocks and rebounds

And? He'd better have, given that he played about three quarters of the total center minutes.

and shot 65% from the field

Yes, on an easy shot diet created for him by others.

and a stunning 83% at the line.

On a small sample size. Making two less free throws would've dropped him to 73%. And 83% on 23 attempts is not "stunning."

We also started letting him handle the ball and he responded with the second best assist to turnover rate on the team.

He played a minor interior passing role. He cashed in during game five because the Knicks (particularly Brunson) saw fit to repeatedly blow coverage on Ausar along the baseline.

The guy put up a double double on great efficiency and the the team would have been swept without him.

Raw stats are raw stats, his efficiency had better be good as a traditional big, and the team performed better with one-legged Stew and Reed on the floor because the defense was so massively better with them rather than Duren on and because what Duren better provided offensively did not compensate. It was a small sample size, but numerically speaking, nobody made the Pistons worse in that series by being on the floor than Duren.

Had Stewart been around to play more of the minutes, especially late in the games, I think it's highly likely that the Pistons would've made it to the second round -- and I think it's possible that he'd have played the majority of the center minutes and virtually certain that he would've been closing games.

[Crymson]

Totally agree. Also, having Tobias on KAT makes sense - not from a Duren deficiency, but Tobias could get out on the wing easier to guard a unique stretch 5 player.

Tobias gave up four inches and 25 pounds to KAT and is average at best defensively. He was not an ideal matchup, and he was assigned to KAT because Duren can't defend skilled bigs and can't defend shooting bigs. Those struggles are very well-worn territory at this point.

Against the Pacers, JB ultimately ended up assigning Tobias to Turner because Duren was hopeless at defending him. Siakam was at least a somewhat more preferable matchup on paper because he operates more in the interior than Turner does. Unfortunately (and very predictably), Duren got destroyed by Siakam as well.

[Snakebites]

What is people’s nightmare scenario? That he gets an offer too big for us to match? The only way to avoid that, from the sounds of it, would have been to give him that contract outright.

That he takes the QO like Monroe? If he does that it’s because the league didn’t value him either.

We just saw people more impactful than him taking offers in the 20-25 million range. Only data we have says he thinks he can get 30 mill.

The math isn’t difficult here. You wait and see whether he a) becomes worth closer to what he thinks he is or b) the price drops to a reasonable level.

That’s the play. And it’s what we did.

[bstein14]

What is people’s nightmare scenario? That he gets an offer too big for us to match? The only way to avoid that, from the sounds of it, would have been to give him that contract outright.

That he takes the QO like Monroe? If he does that it’s because the league didn’t value him either.

We just saw people more impactful than him taking offers in the 20-25 million range. Only data we have says he thinks he can get 30 mill.

The math isn’t difficult here. You wait and see whether he a) becomes worth closer to what he thinks he is or b) the price drops to a reasonable level.

That’s the play. And it’s what we did.

Greg Monroe took a QO and then got a max deal from the Bucks. We lost KCP for nothing who was a solid young player who played the right way. Look what happened with Ayton, another team offered him a max deal and then the Suns essentially had to dump his matched contract for nothing since he was overpaid per his production.

There are certainly scenarios that can play out that are worse than signing Duren to a 4 year $80 million extension this summer. Of course its possible he would sign that and then have a down year and never really live up to that contract either.

If we ended up losing Ivey and Duren both for nothing, or maybe a 2nd round pick coming back in a sign-and-trade, etc it certainly feels like it would be a step back in the process of trying to put a championship caliber 9 man rotation together. That said, if you overpay one or both of them, it also is a step back and I think we've seen that happen over the years as well. The Raptors giving a player like Quickley $175 is a prime example of a team overpaying for a 6th man type player.

[theBigLip]

Per the Ringer Predictions:

15. Jalen Duren will win Most Improved Player.
My annual complaint about this award and who it should celebrate generally boils down to one rule: The candidate must have at least three years of NBA experience under his belt. Everyone else is already expected to get better. With that out of the way, Duren checks that and every other box: He’s now entering his fourth season, has tons of potential, and has so much room to grow on an ascending team that needs to see it sooner than later.

Statistically, the type of leap that’s possible for Duran makes winning this award more than realistic. Thanks to J.B. Bickerstaff’s wise decision to bring Isaiah Stewart off the bench and break up a clunky frontcourt, Duren averaged only 26.1 minutes, 11.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.0 shots per game last season. All of these numbers can and will go up if Duren makes achievable strides on defense, limits his fouls, and takes better care of the ball.

The physical tools are all here. Duren has strength, bounce, touch, speed, reflexes, and vision. He’ll establish a working two-man game with newcomer Duncan Robinson and can potentially benefit from Ausar Thompson’s dabbling at point guard.

Duren will likely improve at defending pick and rolls given the reps he already has—and considering that his 22nd birthday is about a month away. He finished 11th in win shares last season (just behind Jayson Tatum and ahead of Evan Mobley), and second in true shooting percentage and offensive rebounds. A true breakout campaign is on the horizon.

[Billl]

What is people’s nightmare scenario? That he gets an offer too big for us to match? The only way to avoid that, from the sounds of it, would have been to give him that contract outright.

That he takes the QO like Monroe? If he does that it’s because the league didn’t value him either.

We just saw people more impactful than him taking offers in the 20-25 million range. Only data we have says he thinks he can get 30 mill.

The math isn’t difficult here. You wait and see whether he a) becomes worth closer to what he thinks he is or b) the price drops to a reasonable level.

That’s the play. And it’s what we did.

That's a lot of speculation since none of us know where the pistons or duren were in terms of $$.

As for "the math" - no, those aren't the only options. All it takes is for 1 team to be crazy and then we lose him for nothing or match a bad contract. If you look at the teams with projected cap space, it wouldn't be shocking if the top name FA's shunned them and they ended up tossing big money at second tier guys. As a pistons fan, you've seen this play out many times before but it was usually us overbidding - aka the detroit tax.