Fantastic Josh Smith break down

ImHeisenberg · Post #1 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Sun Jul 7, 2013 11:46 pm

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1h ... osh_smith/

Wondering how JSmoove compares to the rest of league's small forward on specific offense and defensive possessions?

This kindly poster on Reddit did a fantastic job of breaking it down, and it's well worth the read.

TPA · Post #2 » by **TPA** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 12:32 am

Nice share.
Thanks man.

Mad Guru · Post #3 » by **Mad Guru** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 12:40 am

I wish there was a more detailed explanation of how the numbers were derived and what the categories meant.

ImHeisenberg · Post #4 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 12:50 am

Mad Guru wrote:I wish there was a more detailed explanation of how the numbers were derived and what the categories meant.

It's a quantified number on points per possession. Like any sports metric, it's not perfect. Who a player is on the court with certainly influences those statistics. But, it's another perspective and it was well written.

Minas · Post #5 » by **Minas** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 1:12 am

Good write-up.

OneBadMutha · Post #6 » by **OneBadMutha** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 1:43 am

Good write up. Wonder though, how Smith's focus on offense will change now that he's starting as a 3. Would think that there will be more focus on having him catch the ball in deeper position with guys moving and playing off him.

His iso defense is really exciting. Knew that he'd have an impact as a help man but didn't know he was such a good iso defender.

mercury · Post #7 » by **mercury** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 3:12 am

This is a nice combination of analytics and personal observations including some confirmations from Hawks fans.
My perspective is that iso plays are not playing to his strength... the best way to use Josh in a set offense is utilizing motion sets with some Princeton concepts (heavy on back screens)... since Josh is a willing passer he can force switches which leaves Dre or GM on smaller defenders... I hope to see a nice "above the rim" partnership with Andre.... defenders can't defend what they can't reach.
With proper movement this doesn't have to be a spot up shooting problem as we clearly will have the advantage on the glass.
The defense will automatically collapse so they will need to recognize help from the "pinchers" and kick it back out where we do have some shooters... with this kind of size/athleticism you can't get bogged down with set plays... the real opportunity is at the rim.
Anyone remember Houston's Phi-Slama Jamma with Hakeem?... their whole system was predicated on pressure defense and getting out in transition (didn't hurt having the versatile Clyde the Glide Drexler)... it got them to the final two in the tournament... this is what I envision... playing to our strengths.

E-Z · Post #8 » by **E-Z** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 3:18 am

I'm not sure how a horns set would work with Smith and Monroe up top. Where the hell would Drummond be? In the corner waiting for a screen to the basket, by Knight? :lol:

So, to sum this up, the Pistons' offense will largely be pinch post and horns. Both are sets Frank used during his tenure. It makes his firing look silly in retrospect. You can't blame the coach when:

There's no traditional point guard
There's a lack of outside shooting

Smith and Knight are shaky in transition, suck in the P&R...man, Detroit's options are LIMITED offensively.

I would love to see a traditional P&R offense, given all the athleticism... but it just won't happen with Knight.

Detroit will average 15-20 turnovers per game next season. I feel it.

I expect this squad to play some ugly basketball next season. A ton of shots around the basket, offensive rebounds and the like.

Defensively?

Smith and Drummond starting covers a lot of their weaknesses last season. They can switch/hedge P&R's, allowing Knight to have some backup in those situations. Smith shuts down isolation plays no matter who has the ball. I expect Detroit to win the board war on most nights compared to last season.

Games will be low scoring, first to 90 points win type of games.

HotelVitale · Post #9 » by **HotelVitale** » Mon Jul 8, 2013 12:37 pm

Nice write up of the synergy stats. I didn't realize Smooth was that bad at 75% of things on offense. I thank I overrated his offense because he always had a solid PER-- without noting that PER gives a lot of weight to steals and blocks, which Smith is of course excellent at producing. After looking at these usage stats, though, you basically want him cutting, grabbing orebs, and dunking in transition...and otherwise staying away from the ball.

We're going to really struggle without a pg to penetrate and allow a motion-heavy offense to happen. Who on this team creates the initial space and starts the defense rotating? How many times a game can we have Monroe start the offense at the elbow or in the high post?