Spencer Dinwiddie: ceiling/floor?

epheisey · Post #81 » by **epheisey** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:45 am

In order for someone to rise up the draft boards, someone has to fall. And DW could have just as easily been the one to fall as the one to rise up the boards. Comparing him to Stauskas is just as crazy as comparing him to someone who started as a lottery pick and fell to the second round.....

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treefi · Post #82 » by **treefi** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:33 am

epheisey wrote:
treefi wrote:http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/andre-roberson-decision-nba-heavily-influence-colorado-viewed-210708871--ncaab.html

"Spencer Dinwiddie, a 6-6 point guard who will be a junior next season, is listed as a lottery pick by some in early 2014 mock drafts."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1851 ... son/page/2

"This is a big year for Spencer Dinwiddie, now a junior with high expectations. He took 30 free throws over his first three games. Dinwiddie can get to the rack and draw contact at will... And it's likely keeping him in our top 20."

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/huskymens ... or-season/

"Dinwiddie was projected to be a first-round pick in the 2014 NBA draft. However, his knee injury will likely prompt him to return to Colorado for his senior season."

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... ari-parker

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/feed/ ... son/fWpQ7/

Projected 1st round, pick #20-#30.... Lottery pick before injury is hyping yes, but it's definitely not unrealistic to think he could have moved up into the lottery if he played the entire year and did well in March Madness.. Especially once GMs noticed he projected as a PG! When I first heard Dinwiddie can play point, THAT is when I started getting excited.

Come on man...half the links you posted say BLOG right in the url...

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What do you call blogs by ESPN? The truth? Draftexpress and NBAdraft.net are just some random dudes who started a mock draft website before mock drafts were cool. It's like all the sites doing 'Waiver Wire Week _' posts for traffic right now. Sports 'experts' are nothing more than sports fans.

I should have stuck with my site NBAgeek.com in 2001, my opinion on draft prospects could be the truth too!!! I have friends from the band Dale Earnhardt Jr Jr who write blog posts for ESPN about Detroit sports.

You don't think Dinwiddie was being projected as a mid 1st round pick with potential for the lottery before his injury? Okay, great! There are people who do.

treefi · Post #83 » by **treefi** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:42 am

epheisey wrote:In order for someone to rise up the draft boards, someone has to fall. And DW could have just as easily been the one to fall as the one to rise up the boards. Comparing him to Stauskas is just as crazy as comparing him to someone who started as a lottery pick and fell to the second round.....

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Why is it crazy to compare his stock to Stauskas? His stock rose because he was the best player on a good Michigan team and was clearly the best shooting prospect available at the SG position.

Comparing Dinwiddie to others who started as a lottery pick and fell to the 2nd round wouldn't be a crazy comparison at all... They probably fell to the 2nd round because of an injury! Either that or they started playing terribly... or maybe never reached the potential everyone thought they had.

Dinwiddie, in this hypothetical scenario, doesn't fall to the 2nd round because of flaws discovered within his game. Could he have sucked the rest of the year and seen his stock fall? Yeah sure, but that's not what we're talking about here... Dinwiddie was playing at an elite level which would have catapulted him into the running for a lottery selection.

Redeemed · Post #84 » by **Redeemed** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:12 am

His draft status doesn't really matter much to me. The draft is over, he's in the league. Darko's draft status didn't help him at all, neither did Thabeet. Dinwiddie showed promise and reason for optimism in his first game. I'm hoping for more of the same. The kid's got good size, a pass first mentality, ballhandling skills, and a nice looking jumper.

Better yet, he has come to us at the right time. He's got guys ahead of him so he doesn't have to be rushed into developing (Stuckey & Knight). He's got an elite coach in SVG as opposed to the retreads and clueless guys from the old regime.

His ceiling will be determined by how driven and coachable he is. The physical tools are there. At least they appear to be there based on the small sample. Let's see what else he's got.

epheisey · Post #85 » by **epheisey** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:37 pm

Gary Harris vs Stauskas explains my point fairly well. Harris was projected as high as a top 10 pick, but fell all the way to 19th.

All I'm trying to say is that this hype over DW and the claims that we got a lottery pick in the second round is just homer hype and Pistons beat writers building up a 2nd round pick.

It's like when teams in the top 10 picks of the NFL's second round claim to have gotten 1st round talent...there are only 32 first round picks. Not 40. Same thing in the NBA. There are 30 first round picks, 14 lottery picks. If teams thought a certain player was good enough to warrant a top 14 pick, they would have selected them there.

Dinwiddie COULD turn into the steal of the draft sure. But EVERY SINGLE YEAR, we have the same thread where everyone thinks we've uncovered some gem and the rest of the league missed out on something because of x,y, or z. That doesn't happen. Teams obviously didn't see enough in DW to draft him in the first round. Therefore, he wasn't a first round pick. Or a "former lottery" pick. He's a second round pick with potential, a relatively low ceiling, but he seems to have a somewhat guaranteed floor.

He's probably not going to end up as a useless player, he has some skill, enough to survive as a journeyman 3rd pg at worst. But at best,he's probably a solid backup combo guard.

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detroitKG · Post #86 » by **detroitKG** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:49 pm

Redeemed wrote:His draft status doesn't really matter much to me. The draft is over, he's in the league. Darko's draft status didn't help him at all, neither did Thabeet. Dinwiddie showed promise and reason for optimism in his first game. I'm hoping for more of the same. The kid's got good size, a pass first mentality, ballhandling skills, and a nice looking jumper.

Better yet, he has come to us at the right time. He's got guys ahead of him so he doesn't have to be rushed into developing (Stuckey & Knight). He's got an elite coach in SVG as opposed to the retreads and clueless guys from the old regime.

His ceiling will be determined by how driven and coachable he is. The physical tools are there. At least they appear to be there based on the small sample. Let's see what else he's got.

Pretty much the only sensible thing I've read in here. You hit on the head. Draft positioning is one of the most overrated things in basketball..you have so many first founders that flop and fizzle as well as 2nd rounders and plenty from both rounds that blossom into phenomenal NBA talents. It's a guessing game IMO.

As far as the hype and what not. Let fans be fans...seriously

epheisey · Post #87 » by **epheisey** » Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:53 pm

detroitKG wrote:
Redeemed wrote:His draft status doesn't really matter much to me. The draft is over, he's in the league. Darko's draft status didn't help him at all, neither did Thabeet. Dinwiddie showed promise and reason for optimism in his first game. I'm hoping for more of the same. The kid's got good size, a pass first mentality, ballhandling skills, and a nice looking jumper.

Better yet, he has come to us at the right time. He's got guys ahead of him so he doesn't have to be rushed into developing (Stuckey & Knight). He's got an elite coach in SVG as opposed to the retreads and clueless guys from the old regime.

His ceiling will be determined by how driven and coachable he is. The physical tools are there. At least they appear to be there based on the small sample. Let's see what else he's got.

Pretty much the only sensible thing I've read in here. You hit on the head. Draft positioning is one of the most overrated things in basketball..you have so many first founders that flop and fizzle as well as 2nd rounders and plenty from both rounds that blossom into phenomenal NBA talents. It's a guessing game IMO.

As far as the hype and what not. Let fans be fans...seriously

That makes sense to some extent. But draft position does matter. The deeper you get into the draft, the chances of your pick panning out drop.

Now at this point, since we already have the guy on the roster, you're right, it doesn't really matter that much. But, it does provide a good barometer as to what we should and could expect from him. But we're arguing a more or less pointless issue.

Having reasonable expectations help a guy to not get crucified when things don't work out, and the Detroit fan base is well versed in destroying someone when they don't meet the expectations of fans.

DW is in a perfect position, being well entrenched at the bottom of the lineup on a team with a great coaching staff, he has all the tools and time to allow his best case scenario to unfold. So lets just hope he's got what it takes.

Post #88 » by **theBigLip** » Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:02 am

I can't believe all the drama over his draft status. Every year I track multiple draft boards in a spreadsheet. It is amazing how they change throughout the college season, and especially during March Madness. And then the workouts and rumors and agent manipulations. Yikes - the players from 10-40 have a lot of fluctuation (unlike the top 10 - once you're there, your agent hides you so you can't drop). So Dinwiddie was in this range in January, with a lot of potential to move up. And then he got injured and was off the map. So we will never know for sure how he would have played, how far his team would have went. Could he have been a lottery talent? Sure, if Stauskas could make the move, no reason why Dinwiddie couldn't have done the same.

But now, he is where he is. It doens't matter about the draft. Like was mentioned, what matters is his devotion to work hard and get better. He had to amp it up to come back from the injury, so he obviously has the work ethic. Yes, we are homers about our players, but it is easy to be optimistic about him. He doesn't have to be a star - if he just becomes a starter, we got a steal with this draft pick.

Redeemed · Post #89 » by **Redeemed** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:54 pm

theBigLip wrote:I can't believe all the drama over his draft status. Every year I track multiple draft boards in a spreadsheet. It is amazing how they change throughout the college season, and especially during March Madness. And then the workouts and rumors and agent manipulations. Yikes - the players from 10-40 have a lot of fluctuation (unlike the top 10 - once you're there, your agent hides you so you can't drop). So Dinwiddie was in this range in January, with a lot of potential to move up. And then he got injured and was off the map. So we will never know for sure how he would have played, how far his team would have went. Could he have been a lottery talent? Sure, if Stauskas could make the move, no reason why Dinwiddie couldn't have done the same.

But now, he is where he is. It doens't matter about the draft. Like was mentioned, what matters is his devotion to work hard and get better. He had to amp it up to come back from the injury, so he obviously has the work ethic. Yes, we are homers about our players, but it is easy to be optimistic about him. He doesn't have to be a star - if he just becomes a starter, we got a steal with this draft pick.

THIS!!

Brapman · Post #90 » by **Brapman** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:44 pm

Without the injuries to our SG's, this season would set up as the perfect opportunity for the Pistons to develop Dinwiddie, slowly. Coming off the injury, missing camp, it seems far-fetched to believe that this rookie is ready. He's the perfect practice with the team and play w/ Grand Rapids for a few months player.

He'd have to be very special to be able to wiggle his way into the rotation of what is a very deep guard rotation.

His play will do the talking while he has an opportunity with the injuries to fill minutes on a team that just might need him, though he's currently last on the roster on the depth chart at SG and at PG. If KCP misses a few games still, there might be an opening for him. But, anticipating he'll be good right out of the box, seems like a dicey bet.

ImHeisenberg · Post #91 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:41 pm

Brapman wrote:Without the injuries to our SG's, this season would set up as the perfect opportunity for the Pistons to develop Dinwiddie, slowly. Coming off the injury, missing camp, it seems far-fetched to believe that this rookie is ready. He's the perfect practice with the team and play w/ Grand Rapids for a few months player.

He'd have to be very special to be able to wiggle his way into the rotation of what is a very deep guard rotation.

His play will do the talking while he has an opportunity with the injuries to fill minutes on a team that just might need him, though he's currently last on the roster on the depth chart at SG and at PG. If KCP misses a few games still, there might be an opening for him. But, anticipating he'll be good right out of the box, seems like a dicey bet.

I think the Meeks injury has left him a larger window of opportunity than would be expected. But, I agree, he's behind the curve in terms of what SVG is installing in Detroit and that will take him some time to catch up, in addition to the minute cap he currently has on him.

Kilo · Post #92 » by **Kilo** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:36 pm

As long as KCP is healthy, I think Martin can handle all the back-up minutes at SG the first couple months, so there will be no reason to rush Dinwiddie or put him in situations where he could struggle in initially.

treefi · Post #93 » by **treefi** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:55 pm

epheisey wrote:Gary Harris vs Stauskas explains my point fairly well. Harris was projected as high as a top 10 pick, but fell all the way to 19th.

All I'm trying to say is that this hype over DW and the claims that we got a lottery pick in the second round is just homer hype and Pistons beat writers building up a 2nd round pick.

It's like when teams in the top 10 picks of the NFL's second round claim to have gotten 1st round talent...there are only 32 first round picks. Not 40. Same thing in the NBA. There are 30 first round picks, 14 lottery picks. If teams thought a certain player was good enough to warrant a top 14 pick, they would have selected them there.

Dinwiddie COULD turn into the steal of the draft sure. But EVERY SINGLE YEAR, we have the same thread where everyone thinks we've uncovered some gem and the rest of the league missed out on something because of x,y, or z. That doesn't happen. Teams obviously didn't see enough in DW to draft him in the first round. Therefore, he wasn't a first round pick. Or a "former lottery" pick. He's a second round pick with potential, a relatively low ceiling, but he seems to have a somewhat guaranteed floor.

He's probably not going to end up as a useless player, he has some skill, enough to survive as a journeyman 3rd pg at worst. But at best,he's probably a solid backup combo guard.

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Why do you think his best case potential is limited to 'solid backup guard'?

epheisey · Post #94 » by **epheisey** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:15 pm

treefi wrote:Why do you think his best case potential is limited to 'solid backup guard'?

In college his passing game was simply average IMO. For me, that's the biggest thing I notice for a PG. Players can look impressive in college as a "PG" when in reality they were simply the best player on the team, and good enough to handle the ball the majority of the time, while they demonstrate very little PG ability. Look at Brandon Knight. He was a great college player. He played PG because his size and handles allowed it, but he never showed the ability to run an offense while he was at Kentucky.

DW has the handles, but I don't see the vision, passing ability or court presence to run an offense effectively enough to become a starter.

That could change. I'd be thrilled if it did. He did look good in the preseason game, moving the ball well, so there is potential there.

But for a 2nd round pick to become a contributor in any fashion is a win. So even if he ONLY makes it as a 4th-5th guard on a team, that's a successful 2nd round pick. Mitchell shouldn't be on this team, Siva didn't make the cut. And those are only the most recent ones. There was a reason he was taken in the 2nd round. And I think that's the point that I was trying to make all along. Just looking at percentages, essentially playing the numbers, 2nd round picks become valuable members of an NBA roster almost never. So aside from what I've personally seen, I'm also banking on the fact that 29 other teams passed on him, sometimes twice, and they are the experts in this department. Sure they make mistakes, but they are rare in the grand scheme.

tmorgan · Post #95 » by **tmorgan** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:45 am

I don't disagree with the above post... but *some* players do learn pretty amazing things as pros. The ones that are really driven can learn a lot. I have no idea if Spencer Dinwiddie has that kind of drive, but the early returns are good. He worked his butt off to come back significantly earlier than expected, and he looked surprisingly competent his first time on the floor versus the Sixers.

Although it's certainly true that second rounders are far less likely to become NBA regulars, let alone starters, I decided to do a quick check... this is 2004-2012 only, mind you, because that's what I'm seeing on NBA.com. All of the following players were second round selections:

Anderson Varejao
Trevor Ariza
Brandon Bass
Ersan Ilyasova
Monta Ellis
Lou Williams
Andre Blatche
Amir Johnson
Marcin Gortat
Daniel Gibson
Paul Millsap
Carl Landry
Glen Davis
Josh McRoberts
Marc Gasol
Ramon Sessions
Nikola Pekovic
Mario Chalmers
DeAndre Jordan
Omer Asik
Luc Mbah a Moute
Goran Dragic
DeJuan Blair
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Beverly
Patty Mills
Lance Stephenson
Kyle Singler
Chandler Parsons
Draymond Green
Khris Middleton

There's certainly a large Euro element at play here, but there are PLENTY of quality NBA players that were 2nd round picks, and many of them are starters. I left off a ton of guys that are pulling regular minutes as bench guys as well.

Redeemed · Post #96 » by **Redeemed** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:18 am

I find this to be a puzzling thread. We drafted a kid in the second round who suffered a significant injury. It was gamble, very likely a low risk low reward gamble since he was just a second pick. He showed some encouraging intangibles with his intellect and well spoken manner. Those intangibles continued to surface as we saw him add muscle and respond well during his recovery process.

For the most part we dismissed this year as a redshirt year. There were no reasonable expectations to see Dinwiddie play this year. Then additional intangibles surface with his work ethic. He worked his butt off to get on the floor and he made it. There were questions about his ability to play. He at least gave us further grounds for optimism with his 15 minutes of play in the last game of preseason.

There is still a long road ahead of Spencer Dinwiddie and no one is expecting him to be Steve Smith or Magic Johnson, but isn't there reason to be guardedly pleased by what we've seen so far? Come on guys. Let's give him a shot.

hoophabit · Post #97 » by **hoophabit** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:04 pm

Redeemed wrote:I find this to be a puzzling thread. We drafted a kid in the second round who suffered a significant injury. It was gamble, very likely a low risk low reward gamble since he was just a second pick. He showed some encouraging intangibles with his intellect and well spoken manner. Those intangibles continued to surface as we saw him add muscle and respond well during his recovery process.

For the most part we dismissed this year as a redshirt year. There were no reasonable expectations to see Dinwiddie play this year. Then additional intangibles surface with his work ethic. He worked his butt off to get on the floor and he made it. There were questions about his ability to play. He at least gave us further grounds for optimism with his 15 minutes of play in the last game of preseason.

There is still a long road ahead of Spencer Dinwiddie and no one is expecting him to be Steve Smith or Magic Johnson, but isn't there reason to be guardedly pleased by what we've seen so far? Come on guys. Let's give him a shot.

Yeah, I don't see where anyone is talking about HOF or All Star or such? Kid is long and has shown some facility for the game. If we get help from a 2nd rounder it's a big win. He's a Piston now so it's natural for fans to root for him.

Brapman · Post #98 » by **Brapman** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:07 pm

The intriguing thing about Dinwiddie is we simply cannot and should not rule out the possibility that, had he not been hurt, he'd have ranked with the top PG's in this deep draft. I know it's fashionable to poo poo that idea - but Dinwiddie has attributes that compare well to any of the PG's in the 2014 draft.

Consider the PG's picked this year. Exum, Payton, Smart, Lavine (sg or pg?, not sure), Ennis, Napier, Clarkson, and Dinwiddie. Is anyone SURE Exum, Payton and Lavine will be quality NBA players? Great athletic talents - of course - but not one of them knows how to play. The Utah fans watching Exum report that the guy is rawer than raw -- he built his pre-draft reputation against high school players and against some young Euro's and then didn't play much last year.

I've really liked what i've seen from Payton - but that kid can't shoot a lick. Lavine and World B. Free have a lot in common, inasmuch as I've seen them -- and that's not a compliment.

Ennis, knows how to play, but he comes with no advantages over a healthy Dinwiddie, in that he's got nowhere near Spencer's upside given their height discrepancy. Smart? As far as I'm concerned, Smart is Rodney Stuckey reincarnated - a kid who simply cannot shoot.

If Dinwiddie had been healthy and played through his full season, he'd absolutely have been in the mix with his piers. Would he have gone ahead of the ultra-hyped Exum? No. But it's conceivable that he'd have gone ahead of the others - probably not ahead of Smart, but that's not 100% certain, as Smart was a flawed prospect coming in.

Bottom line for me, it's wide open as to which of these guys will turn out to be the best pros.

tmorgan · Post #99 » by **tmorgan** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:25 pm

I've got my doubts about Exum being worth that high of a pick -- great athlete, not great at basketball, so that seems valid. Smart, however, is NOT Rodney Stuckey... his shot isn't good, true, but that kid is a killer competitor. If anything, Stuckey with more athleticism, leadership, and tenacity, which can be a much better player even if his shot doesn't improve. Really like Elfrid Payton, too, as he plays the game with a calmness that I also see in Dinwiddie.

I doubt he'll amount to more than Smart or Payton, but that doesn't mean he can't become a solid NBA starter if things go his way and he works for it. That's plenty of value for us.

epheisey · Post #100 » by **epheisey** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:18 pm

Brapman wrote:Bottom line for me, it's wide open as to which of these guys will turn out to be the best pros.

So you're essentially saying you're better at evaluating talent than the entire scouting departments of 29 other teams.

I'm going to lean towards the experience and knowledge of experts, before I use my own eye test. They have a ton more information than what I ever come across.