Official 2016 NBA Draft thread

[Pharaoh]

I'd prefer we have more first round picks as opposed to just 18.

I think its smart to grab cheap, developmental players at a time when role players are gonna get $10+ mil

[theBigLip]

Believe me I'm no fan of Ford either. He seem to has no real evaluation skills of his own, just parroting what his sources are feeding him. Then there was the hing about him going back and updating his pre draft rankings years after the fact...

I know there are screen shots that shows that some of the rankings had been manipulated, but I just don't think Chad Ford did any of that. He is actually a very humble guy. When he used to do chats on ESPN, he would clearly admit when he got things right and when he didn't. He also knows this is a bit of a crapshoot because agents, GMs, and players not only give information, they give mis-information to help their own causes. So he has to sort through that and sometimes he gets suckered (but only once by the same person). A more likely scenario is that some marketing guy thought it would be a boost to have more accurate picks - maybe to compare against other sites? And once they were caught, they pushed back the originals. If they really thought Ford did it, they would have fired him. They didn't, which IMHO points to some internal smuck who made the mistake. And it seems like they would know - there should be records of who is doing what updates, which again supports my theory.

Regardless, I think Chad Ford knows a whole lot about the players. He goes to a lot of games/workouts/summer camps/etc. And he talks to all the GMs, a bunch of agents, and other people in the know, and he gets a pretty good feel for what is going to go down. I'd happily take a wager - I'll use Chad Ford's final mock draft, and you can choose any other (or make up your own), and I'm sure Ford's will be better.

[Pharaoh]

I don't know Lip - DX is pretty plugged in now.

The dude that started DX was a poster on Real GM if memory serves

[coordinator0]

I know there are screen shots that shows that some of the rankings had been manipulated, but I just don't think Chad Ford did any of that. He is actually a very humble guy. When he used to do chats on ESPN, he would clearly admit when he got things right and when he didn't. He also knows this is a bit of a crapshoot because agents, GMs, and players not only give information, they give mis-information to help their own causes. So he has to sort through that and sometimes he gets suckered (but only once by the same person). A more likely scenario is that some marketing guy thought it would be a boost to have more accurate picks - maybe to compare against other sites? And once they were caught, they pushed back the originals. If they really thought Ford did it, they would have fired him. They didn't, which IMHO points to some internal smuck who made the mistake. And it seems like they would know - there should be records of who is doing what updates, which again supports my theory.

Regardless, I think Chad Ford knows a whole lot about the players. He goes to a lot of games/workouts/summer camps/etc. And he talks to all the GMs, a bunch of agents, and other people in the know, and he gets a pretty good feel for what is going to go down. I'd happily take a wager - I'll use Chad Ford's final mock draft, and you can choose any other (or make up your own), and I'm sure Ford's will be better.

Don't get me wrong, I've read and will continue to read just about everything Ford puts out there. There just aren't that many prominent NBA draft media resources available. But that's exactly why ESPN wouldn't have gotten rid of Ford even if they knew he did go back and change those rankings. It's not like the NFL draft where there are seemingly endless outlets available for consumer digestion, and quite a few quality ones at that. Ford might be the most recognizable face for the NBA draft (any lead at ESPN would be really) and there's a ton of value in that. They're a smarter company than that. I don't really disagree with your theory that some lackey went back and did something on his or her own either, but this whole situation isn't the main reason I'm not a fan of Ford. It's more like a cherry on top.

Of the chats, articles, tweets, etc. that Ford has done I've never gotten the feeling that he's a good evaluator of talent on his own. Chad doesn't really present it like he is either. Even his big board that he does is just an accumulation of what he's hearing from his sources. At this point he obviously knows what's good and bad info, but regardless that doesn't make him a guy who can break down a draft prospect. Going back to the NFL draft there's a guy that puts out a top 100 and mock and both are pretty much the most accurate or very close to it every single year. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Sentinel Times. Does that make him a great draft evaluator? No, because everything he puts out there comes from his connections around the NFL. Rick Gosselin was the same way before he stopped covering the NFL. That's essentially what I view Ford as and why I think his content is still worth reading. We know he has some good sources around the league, but taking any of his opinion stuff too seriously? Nah.

And for what it's worth I would feel pretty comfortable using DraftExpress' stuff for anything. Givony and crew are always the most well-versed in prospects and he has some quality sources in the NBA himself.

[MotownMadness]

DraftExpress is the best, They really take the time to breakdown each prospect to a higher level then anyone else right now.

[theBigLip]

I don't know Lip - DX is pretty plugged in now.

The dude that started DX was a poster on Real GM if memory serves

I agree that they are pretty good now, but that wasn't always the case. I'm guessing, but I think they started out pretty normal, having a non basketball day job (or none at all), and putting up a website. Eventually, it became popular enough for him to do it full time, and it has gotten a lot better.

I can actually pull these out if anyone is interested, but for YEARS, especially when we were in the lottery, I would do an extensive draft analysis in Excel. I would basically compare Ford, NBADraft.net, and DraftExpress. And I would do this for 4-5 months before the draft, tracking the rankings in each of their mocks. NBADraft.net and DraftExpress both over-valued US players, and also players from big schools that got hype from March Madness. They would have these guys in the top 10, and Chad Ford would have them at 20. As the draft got closer, they started moving their picks a lot closer to Fords, not the other way around.

Of course, that was years ago, and like I said, it is getting closer now. And while ESPN seems to be cutting corners (dropping chats, much less content), DraftExpress has a lot more detail and analysis on the players. I would still take Ford's picks over any others, but I'm sure DX would be a lot closer than in previous years.

So, with all that said, I'll start a fun thread for all of us, even if a little premature. We can have a draft contest. It would get a little crazy (and meaningless) to do all of both rounds, but maybe the first round, or just the lottery. This won't be to prove anyone right or wrong, but maybe just a little fun for all of us.

Cheers,
theBigLip

[ImHeisenberg]

Ford's mock drafts are usually the most reliable, if any mock can be reliable. He has a lot of connections he speaks with in the league.

DX does the best comprehensive player analysis on the web. But, they don't have the much in the way of team's insider knowledge.

[Pharaoh]

Givony probably wants to eventually become a scout for an NBA team...and then climb the ladder.

That's admirable but agree if you're looking at longevity and connections then Ford is where you'd look

[Kilo]

Cap roster balance says we need a PG out of this draft. At first I wanted a big and sign a veteran back-up, but I've realized why we're after a PG out of the draft.

We're paying Reggie 16M there already, can't afford a $10M+ back-up as well with a 90M cap, 90M / 5 is 18M per position to have a balanced roster. Mook is getting paid $5M per season the next three years, that gives us more money to allot to our PF position come the free agent market. Stanley, Hillard on Rookie Deals are good matches for KCP getting paid (as Meeks is expiring) and Tobias getting $15M per season.

[kf96]

Cap roster balance says we need a PG out of this draft. At first I wanted a big and sign a veteran back-up, but I've realized why we're after a PG out of the draft.

We're paying Reggie 16M there already, can't afford a $10M+ back-up as well with a 90M cap, 90M / 5 is 18M per position to have a balanced roster. Mook is getting paid $5M per season the next three years, that gives us more money to allot to our PF position come the free agent market. Stanley, Hillard on Rookie Deals are good matches for KCP getting paid (as Meeks is expiring) and Tobias getting $15M per season.

So with this logic we cant give Drummond a max?

[RasheedTupac]

Pistons should get Kay Felder in the second round lmaoo #OU


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Kilo]

Cap roster balance says we need a PG out of this draft. At first I wanted a big and sign a veteran back-up, but I've realized why we're after a PG out of the draft.

We're paying Reggie 16M there already, can't afford a $10M+ back-up as well with a 90M cap, 90M / 5 is 18M per position to have a balanced roster. Mook is getting paid $5M per season the next three years, that gives us more money to allot to our PF position come the free agent market. Stanley, Hillard on Rookie Deals are good matches for KCP getting paid (as Meeks is expiring) and Tobias getting $15M per season.

So with this logic we cant give Drummond a max?

No, we can give him the max, but we won't be keeping Baynes in a years time. Cap will be 110 in 2017 which is 22M per position. For every million you go over the max per position, you have to short another one. Dre will basically be pulling all of the Ce money himself, meaning he gets a rookie or vets minimum back-up, and/or hopefully alleviate that with a PF/Ce type of back-up PF.

[sc8581]

I think Demetrius Jackson should be the pick, I like his potential on both ends.

[El Chivo]

Cap roster balance says we need a PG out of this draft. At first I wanted a big and sign a veteran back-up, but I've realized why we're after a PG out of the draft.

We're paying Reggie 16M there already, can't afford a $10M+ back-up as well with a 90M cap, 90M / 5 is 18M per position to have a balanced roster. Mook is getting paid $5M per season the next three years, that gives us more money to allot to our PF position come the free agent market. Stanley, Hillard on Rookie Deals are good matches for KCP getting paid (as Meeks is expiring) and Tobias getting $15M per season.

So with this logic we cant give Drummond a max?

No, we can give him the max, but we won't be keeping Baynes in a years time. Cap will be 110 in 2017 which is 22M per position. For every million you go over the max per position, you have to short another one. Dre will basically be pulling all of the Ce money himself, meaning he gets a rookie or vets minimum back-up, and/or hopefully alleviate that with a PF/Ce type of back-up PF.

You can pay more than 110... and there are Bird rights

[pistontr]

we will draft a point guard and I start thinking that it is a good idea. maybe we could get rid of reggie jackson.

[MotownMadness]

I think Demetrius Jackson should be the pick, I like his potential on both ends.

Me too, I think he could be a good defender. With his strength and athleticism and his style I think Bledsoe is a pretty good comparison for him. Right now he's my next choice behind Baldwin as I just love his wingspan

[MotownMadness]

we will draft a point guard and I start thinking that it is a good idea. maybe we could get rid of reggie jackson.

Ain't nobody that good in our range to overthrow him.

[Notanoob]

I think Demetrius Jackson should be the pick, I like his potential on both ends.

Me too, I think he could be a good defender. With his strength and athleticism and his style I think Bledsoe is a pretty good comparison for him. Right now he's my next choice behind Baldwin as I just love his wingspan

How often do people who never played defense in college suddenly become good defenders in the NBA?

Don't expect Jackson to be anything on defense.

[MotownMadness]

I think Demetrius Jackson should be the pick, I like his potential on both ends.

Me too, I think he could be a good defender. With his strength and athleticism and his style I think Bledsoe is a pretty good comparison for him. Right now he's my next choice behind Baldwin as I just love his wingspan

How often do people who never played defense in college suddenly become good defenders in the NBA?

Don't expect Jackson to be anything on defense.

Was he a bad defender in college? From what I've seen of him he looks fine and has even been talking about how he wants to work to become a elite defender at the next level. And to answer your question I would imagine it happens all the time as they are still kids.

[mattao313]

we will draft a point guard and I start thinking that it is a good idea. maybe we could get rid of reggie jackson.

The best pg in the draft ceiling is Reggie Jackson. So idk about that.