2024 NBA Draft Prospect Discussion

[Mr Peanut]

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I mean the guy said it in his tweet himself, everyone has bad games. The stats from one game shouldn't really negate the stats of the 20 or so games that came before it.

[A_dub06]

If Sheppard had elite speed I would be fine drafting him, but he’s a below average athlete for even the college level let alone the NBA meaning all these defensive stats and plays mean less since he’s not going to be able to do that to the majority of players that are not only bigger but faster too.

I don’t see a world where he’s even a remote consideration if you are picking 1-3

I have seen this said about so many players it's absolutely insane at this point.

He is not below average for a college athlete. He has insane hands on defense. He is one of the best shooting college athletes ever.

He has intangibles that a vast majority of players just don't have.

In today's NBA you need elite bball IQ(check)elite defensive metrics(check)and elite shooting(check).

Anytime a team is picking top 5, they want a player that shows an elite skill, at their position, in one, or several facets of the game.

Reed sheppards game was built for the modern NBA, and he is exactly the type of player who should be next to Cade.

No one ever knows if a players skills are going to translate to the NBA, no matter where they come from(Europe, college, Australia, e.t.c)but in this draft, Reed stands out.

Of course, there is a good chance I'm wrong, as usual, but man, his shooting is absolutely **** wild.

He’s not athletic vertically or straight line. He will need to participate in the combine if he has any desire to crack top 3-5 and prove he can stay in front of players.

How many guards became great defenders that weren’t at least plus athletes? Sheppard doesn’t look like he has long arms either, I would be surprised if they are greater than in length by 2 inches of his height.

I get it, you see the shot making/confidence/clean AF fundamentals but he’s 6”2, isn’t fast and most likely has a wingspan that’s not materially different to his height (small). But he is exactly the type of player that shouldn’t be next to Cade outside of his shooting. He’s going to be a sieve defensively and a smaller better shooting Austin Reeves is not something we NEEED. Shooting is, defence is, and actual potential which if this guy has a better career than even JJ reddick I’d eat my hat.

There’s no way I’m taking a white boy (I say this as a white male) that’s undersized and an at best average athlete with a top 3 pick. If we pick 1st, I think we grab Sarr, 2nd we grab Zaccharie (do not want!) or lower probably package the pick for a current player

[A_dub06]

Ivey looks more like an MLE $ 6th man type after his four years of rookie contract are up.... Ausar hopefully works himself into MLE level 3&D type guy but he's not a star either if he develops he can become a good 4th or 5th starter on the team. I'm big on Duren, but even if he's a 17 and 13 center with a high TS% we aren't going to make the mistake of handing out a MAX deal to him like we did with Drummond. He would have to turn into an elite defensive anchor or incredibly expand his offensive skillset within the next year or two in order to get a huge pay day IMO. Being mostly just rebounding and dunking doesn't get you $25+ million per year even if you're a solid starter.

Whilst I agree with what you are saying, our GM is Weaver. Dude gave Bagley a fully guaranteed $12.5m deal for 3 years with not even a team option when no other team even winked in Bagley’s direction. I do not trust gores to make the right decision and fire him asap nor do I trust Weaver to actually act as a gm and force players to get a better deal whilst offering a lesser more affordable deal. He’ll want to tout Duren as his draft success even if he just is a rebounding and dunking machine with bad-average defence

1. You don’t know how much other teams looked into Bagley. Did you read a quote from Bagley or his agent?

2. To think that a 20 year old Duren has reached his full potential is very short sighted. There will be players drafted THIS YEAR that will be older than him. If rookies have a few good skills that keeps them on the floor, that’s great. Then they can continue working and filling out the rest of their game. Duren is already good and is only going to get better.

There was not a single rumour in the slightest any other team was going to offer Bagley a contract, and wasn’t bagley a restricted free agent? Either we bargained with ourselves and didn’t even get a team option. The deal was trash.

Bro please don’t tell me you think Duren is good or Sven an average defender? By almost every metric he is bad. He doesn’t stretch the pain with shooting, all he does is literally dunk and rebound. Who cares that he gets assists, he also gets almost the same amount of turnovers in those high assist games. Bad defenders don’t become good defenders in the nba, they may improve to average but they don’t turn into great ones. Duren doesn’t provide anything of value

[theBigLip]

Whilst I agree with what you are saying, our GM is Weaver. Dude gave Bagley a fully guaranteed $12.5m deal for 3 years with not even a team option when no other team even winked in Bagley’s direction. I do not trust gores to make the right decision and fire him asap nor do I trust Weaver to actually act as a gm and force players to get a better deal whilst offering a lesser more affordable deal. He’ll want to tout Duren as his draft success even if he just is a rebounding and dunking machine with bad-average defence

1. You don’t know how much other teams looked into Bagley. Did you read a quote from Bagley or his agent?

2. To think that a 20 year old Duren has reached his full potential is very short sighted. There will be players drafted THIS YEAR that will be older than him. If rookies have a few good skills that keeps them on the floor, that’s great. Then they can continue working and filling out the rest of their game. Duren is already good and is only going to get better.

There was not a single rumour in the slightest any other team was going to offer Bagley a contract, and wasn’t bagley a restricted free agent? Either we bargained with ourselves and didn’t even get a team option. The deal was trash.

Bro please don’t tell me you think Duren is good or Sven an average defender? By almost every metric he is bad. He doesn’t stretch the pain with shooting, all he does is literally dunk and rebound. Who cares that he gets assists, he also gets almost the same amount of turnovers in those high assist games. Bad defenders don’t become good defenders in the nba, they may improve to average but they don’t turn into great ones. Duren doesn’t provide anything of value

Again, you’re just guessing on the Bagley deal. And even if we did overpay, it wasn’t that large and we were able to move on from it, unlike big contracts like LaVine, Poole, etc.

As for Duren, he does more than just dunk and rebound, although he does do both of those quite well and not sure why you think that’s bad. His defender can’t cheat off of him so this helps everyone on offense. And yes, you can become a good defender, especially if you’re athletic. For team D, it’s just learning where to be and seeing things develop and getting ahead of the play. For individual D, it’s more technique, footwork, etc. Watching Duren’s offense around the basket, his footwork has improved tremendously. I’m sure the 20 year old is capable of improving it on the defensive side as well.

[theBigLip]

my current board

Tier 1 - [Superstar prospect]

Tier 2 - [All NBA prospect]

Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
1. Nikola Topic
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]
4. Ron Holland
5. Kyle Filipowski
6. Zach Edey
7. Devin Carter
8. Collin Murray-Boyles (probably will be in 2025 class though)
9. Rob Dillingham
10. Dalton Knecht

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] not ordered yet but will be trimmed down
Alex Sarr
Stephon Castle
Da’Ron Holmes
Matas Buzelis
Jared McCain
Cody Williams
Zac Risacher
Johnny Furphy
Hansen Yang
Kel’el Ware
Tyler Kolek
Ryan Dunn
Jonathan Mogbo
Isaiah Collier
Jamal Shead
Ja'Kobe Walter

Good list even if it is a little depressing

As in all years, there’s going to be guys that rise above their expectations, even if it takes a few years. Who’s going to work on their game more than anyone else? I’d still take a chance on someone, especially if they are athletic and have shown at least some promise of being able to shoot.

[buzzkilloton]

[t

I mean the guy said it in his tweet himself, everyone has bad games. The stats from one game shouldn't really negate the stats of the 20 or so games that came before it.

Its not like this game is the only reason for question marks on him. I've brought up concerns about him multiple times ITT. Its just the kind of game when you already have question marks on a prospect that makes you question him even more as a top pick in the draft.

He has a limited offensive skill set and he may not be as good of a 3pt shooter as the 3pt % indicates. Hes a career 43% 3pt shooter but on just 2.9 3pa per on this current season hes 38% on 3.2 3pa. His FT% is career 69% and 72% this season. These numbers look more like that of a streaky 3pt shooter then an elite 3pt shooter. Defenders at the NBA level are much better athletes,taller, and just more skilled defenders overall its not going to be easier.

Hes tall at 6'9 but has just a 6'10 wingspan. Hes not some freaky long player that has top end defensive upside.

I actually think if we draft him were basically hoping he turns into what Tecch is. I wanted him at one point but I'm pretty out now.

[NYPiston]

Been saying this all season, I'm baffled by the Cody Williams hype. Colorado didn't even have him in the game for the most part in the clutch. I'll just repeat that this is a weak draft but there HAS TO be at least 5 better prospects in this draft, any GM that hitches their wagon to Williams in the top 5 is a fool so.... I guess he's Weaver's guy in that case.

[NYPiston]

my current board

Tier 1 - [Superstar prospect]

Tier 2 - [All NBA prospect]

Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
1. Nikola Topic
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]
4. Ron Holland
5. Kyle Filipowski
6. Zach Edey
7. Devin Carter
8. Collin Murray-Boyles (probably will be in 2025 class though)
9. Rob Dillingham
10. Dalton Knecht

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] not ordered yet but will be trimmed down
Alex Sarr
Stephon Castle
Da’Ron Holmes
Matas Buzelis
Jared McCain
Cody Williams
Zac Risacher
Johnny Furphy
Hansen Yang
Kel’el Ware
Tyler Kolek
Ryan Dunn
Jonathan Mogbo
Isaiah Collier
Jamal Shead
Ja'Kobe Walter

Clingan as a top 3 prospect? What makes you think that? He seems like a Walker Kessler at best.
Edey top 6? I need an explanation for this one as well.
Thanks for putting in the work though, I always like the tier graph.

[buzzkilloton]

Been saying this all season, I'm baffled by the Cody Williams hype. Colorado didn't even have him in the game for the most part in the clutch. I'll just repeat that this is a weak draft but there HAS TO be at least 5 better prospects in this draft, any GM that hitches their wagon to Williams in the top 5 is a fool so.... I guess he's Weaver's guy in that case.

If he wasnt Jalen Williams brother I dont even think hes in the discussion at all. Hes not impressive by eye test nor his numbers. Its essentially just FOMO because his brother. If his name was Brandon Moore hes JAG.

The other part is the draft is so bad were all grasping at straws to find a worthy top prospect.

[theBigLip]

Been saying this all season, I'm baffled by the Cody Williams hype. Colorado didn't even have him in the game for the most part in the clutch. I'll just repeat that this is a weak draft but there HAS TO be at least 5 better prospects in this draft, any GM that hitches their wagon to Williams in the top 5 is a fool so.... I guess he's Weaver's guy in that case.

If he wasnt Jalen Williams brother I dont even think hes in the discussion at all. Hes not impressive by eye test nor his numbers. Its essentially just FOMO because his brother. If his name was Brandon Moore hes JAG.

The other part is the draft is so bad were all grasping at straws to find a worthy top prospect.

I’ve cooled on Williams as well. In another week or so, the college kids resumes will be complete for game situations. Private workouts will happen that we are not privy too. Big mystery as to who is going to be good. Drafts are much easier when there is more talent.

So since this draft sucks, the lotto luck of the Pistons will give us first pick this year instead of last.

[zeebneeb]

If Sheppard had elite speed I would be fine drafting him, but he’s a below average athlete for even the college level let alone the NBA meaning all these defensive stats and plays mean less since he’s not going to be able to do that to the majority of players that are not only bigger but faster too.

I don’t see a world where he’s even a remote consideration if you are picking 1-3

I have seen this said about so many players it's absolutely insane at this point.

He is not below average for a college athlete. He has insane hands on defense. He is one of the best shooting college athletes ever.

He has intangibles that a vast majority of players just don't have.

In today's NBA you need elite bball IQ(check)elite defensive metrics(check)and elite shooting(check).

Anytime a team is picking top 5, they want a player that shows an elite skill, at their position, in one, or several facets of the game.

Reed sheppards game was built for the modern NBA, and he is exactly the type of player who should be next to Cade.

No one ever knows if a players skills are going to translate to the NBA, no matter where they come from(Europe, college, Australia, e.t.c)but in this draft, Reed stands out.

Of course, there is a good chance I'm wrong, as usual, but man, his shooting is absolutely **** wild.

He’s not athletic vertically or straight line. He will need to participate in the combine if he has any desire to crack top 3-5 and prove he can stay in front of players.

How many guards became great defenders that weren’t at least plus athletes? Sheppard doesn’t look like he has long arms either, I would be surprised if they are greater than in length by 2 inches of his height.

I get it, you see the shot making/confidence/clean AF fundamentals but he’s 6”2, isn’t fast and most likely has a wingspan that’s not materially different to his height (small). But he is exactly the type of player that shouldn’t be next to Cade outside of his shooting. He’s going to be a sieve defensively and a smaller better shooting Austin Reeves is not something we NEEED. Shooting is, defence is, and actual potential which if this guy has a better career than even JJ reddick I’d eat my hat.

There’s no way I’m taking a white boy (I say this as a white male) that’s undersized and an at best average athlete with a top 3 pick. If we pick 1st, I think we grab Sarr, 2nd we grab Zaccharie (do not want!) or lower probably package the pick for a current player

You know, this is exactly how Jokic went in the second round.

In the end it doesn't matter to be perfectly honest.

I am pretty sure that the Pistons are not going to be a competitive team until Gores sells the team. It could be 10-20 years before then.

This draft, and offseason is going to be horrendous, book it.

[breezypeezy]

All im saying is I dont think I can stomach another 1RP pick that cannot shoot a basketball.
We are full up for that category.

[zeebneeb]

All im saying is I dont think I can stomach another 1RP pick that cannot shoot a basketball.
We are full up for that category.

I am almost certain Reed will be available when the Pistons pick.

His shooting is otherworldly.

Whats funny is all of us saw this coming(this bad draft) and none of us thought 2 years ago, the team would once again be in this position.

I have an honest question. What is the record for the same team getting a top 5 pick in consecutive years?

[breezypeezy]

All im saying is I dont think I can stomach another 1RP pick that cannot shoot a basketball.
We are full up for that category.

I am almost certain Reed will be available when the Pistons pick.

His shooting is otherworldly.

Whats funny is all of us saw this coming(this bad draft) and none of us thought 2 years ago, the team would once again be in this position.

I have an honest question. What is the record for the same team getting a top 5 pick in consecutive years?

Kings and Magic have had 3 #5 picks, while Pistons, Twolves and Cavc have had the #5 twice going back the last 25 drafts, according to what I read here-
Pistons and Cavs only ones to do it consecutive years........thus far..

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/5th-nba-overall-draft-picks

[A_dub06]

I have seen this said about so many players it's absolutely insane at this point.

He is not below average for a college athlete. He has insane hands on defense. He is one of the best shooting college athletes ever.

He has intangibles that a vast majority of players just don't have.

In today's NBA you need elite bball IQ(check)elite defensive metrics(check)and elite shooting(check).

Anytime a team is picking top 5, they want a player that shows an elite skill, at their position, in one, or several facets of the game.

Reed sheppards game was built for the modern NBA, and he is exactly the type of player who should be next to Cade.

No one ever knows if a players skills are going to translate to the NBA, no matter where they come from(Europe, college, Australia, e.t.c)but in this draft, Reed stands out.

Of course, there is a good chance I'm wrong, as usual, but man, his shooting is absolutely **** wild.

He’s not athletic vertically or straight line. He will need to participate in the combine if he has any desire to crack top 3-5 and prove he can stay in front of players.

How many guards became great defenders that weren’t at least plus athletes? Sheppard doesn’t look like he has long arms either, I would be surprised if they are greater than in length by 2 inches of his height.

I get it, you see the shot making/confidence/clean AF fundamentals but he’s 6”2, isn’t fast and most likely has a wingspan that’s not materially different to his height (small). But he is exactly the type of player that shouldn’t be next to Cade outside of his shooting. He’s going to be a sieve defensively and a smaller better shooting Austin Reeves is not something we NEEED. Shooting is, defence is, and actual potential which if this guy has a better career than even JJ reddick I’d eat my hat.

There’s no way I’m taking a white boy (I say this as a white male) that’s undersized and an at best average athlete with a top 3 pick. If we pick 1st, I think we grab Sarr, 2nd we grab Zaccharie (do not want!) or lower probably package the pick for a current player

You know, this is exactly how Jokic went in the second round.

In the end it doesn't matter to be perfectly honest.

I am pretty sure that the Pistons are not going to be a competitive team until Gores sells the team. It could be 10-20 years before then.

This draft, and offseason is going to be horrendous, book it.

Please don’t compare Sheppard and Jokic Zeeb, you’re better than that bro. Sheppard is an undersized unathelic pg whereas Jokic is a 7’0 below average athelete but insanely talented player. Jokic’s measurable are good it’s just his athleticism which is not amazing. Sheppard are going to be bad as in not only short but small wingspan too.

Sadly I agree with you on the part about gores. Until he excuses himself permanently from all decisions regarding the team allowing the gm to do their job or he sells the team, we aren’t going anywhere

[bstein14]

Sixers had four straight seasons of getting top 3 picks during the process years.

2014 #3 Embiid
2015 #3 Okafor
2016 #1 Ben Simmons
2017 #3 pick traded for #1 Fultz

Pistons will likely join those Sixers teams as the only teams with 4 consecutive top 5 picks over the past 20 years.

[zeebneeb]

He’s not athletic vertically or straight line. He will need to participate in the combine if he has any desire to crack top 3-5 and prove he can stay in front of players.

How many guards became great defenders that weren’t at least plus athletes? Sheppard doesn’t look like he has long arms either, I would be surprised if they are greater than in length by 2 inches of his height.

I get it, you see the shot making/confidence/clean AF fundamentals but he’s 6”2, isn’t fast and most likely has a wingspan that’s not materially different to his height (small). But he is exactly the type of player that shouldn’t be next to Cade outside of his shooting. He’s going to be a sieve defensively and a smaller better shooting Austin Reeves is not something we NEEED. Shooting is, defence is, and actual potential which if this guy has a better career than even JJ reddick I’d eat my hat.

There’s no way I’m taking a white boy (I say this as a white male) that’s undersized and an at best average athlete with a top 3 pick. If we pick 1st, I think we grab Sarr, 2nd we grab Zaccharie (do not want!) or lower probably package the pick for a current player

You know, this is exactly how Jokic went in the second round.

In the end it doesn't matter to be perfectly honest.

I am pretty sure that the Pistons are not going to be a competitive team until Gores sells the team. It could be 10-20 years before then.

This draft, and offseason is going to be horrendous, book it.

Please don’t compare Sheppard and Jokic Zeeb, you’re better than that bro. Sheppard is an undersized unathelic pg whereas Jokic is a 7’0 below average athelete but insanely talented player. Jokic’s measurable are good it’s just his athleticism which is not amazing. Sheppard are going to be bad as in not only short but small wingspan too.

Sadly I agree with you on the part about gores. Until he excuses himself permanently from all decisions regarding the team allowing the gm to do their job or he sells the team, we aren’t going anywhere

I am not comparing the two players, I am comparing circumstances. A damn good player gets picked way to low because of perceived issues.

I hate that I have to clarify everything I say to be honest, I thought that part was obvious.

Jokic wasn't viewed as insanely talented either, otherwise he would have gone way higher.

I also loathe the entire front office. Its crazy that I do, because I cannot remember a time when I wanted a complete reboot. Owner, GM, coaches, staff, all of it.

Its systemic at this point, and needs to be removed. It is the only cure. Gangrene has set in.

[A_dub06]

You know, this is exactly how Jokic went in the second round.

In the end it doesn't matter to be perfectly honest.

I am pretty sure that the Pistons are not going to be a competitive team until Gores sells the team. It could be 10-20 years before then.

This draft, and offseason is going to be horrendous, book it.

Please don’t compare Sheppard and Jokic Zeeb, you’re better than that bro. Sheppard is an undersized unathelic pg whereas Jokic is a 7’0 below average athelete but insanely talented player. Jokic’s measurable are good it’s just his athleticism which is not amazing. Sheppard are going to be bad as in not only short but small wingspan too.

Sadly I agree with you on the part about gores. Until he excuses himself permanently from all decisions regarding the team allowing the gm to do their job or he sells the team, we aren’t going anywhere

I am not comparing the two players, I am comparing circumstances. A damn good player gets picked way to low because of perceived issues.

I hate that I have to clarify everything I say to be honest, I thought that part was obvious.

Jokic wasn't viewed as insanely talented either, otherwise he would have gone way higher.

I also loathe the entire front office. Its crazy that I do, because I cannot remember a time when I wanted a complete reboot. Owner, GM, coaches, staff, all of it.

Its systemic at this point, and needs to be removed. It is the only cure. Gangrene has set in.

Your response made in the context of my assertion that Sheppard is unatheltic therefore his skills won’t translate doesn’t make it clearly you are just talking about skill, but I get what you’re saying not that I think it changes anything either of us have said.

If Sheppard has really long arms or he’s actually 6”5 I think the discussion surrounding him would be different but drafting a below average athlete with poor size/length is a bad recipe for a player that when picked 1-3 draft will be expected to be quite decent.

Yeah even the fact that took on Stephen Silas as an assistant made me vomit. His rotations as head coach in Houston last season were terrible, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if benching Ivey in the beginning of the seaosn was his idea.

[The Moose]

my current board

Tier 1 - [Superstar prospect]

Tier 2 - [All NBA prospect]

Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
1. Nikola Topic
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]
4. Ron Holland
5. Kyle Filipowski
6. Zach Edey
7. Devin Carter
8. Collin Murray-Boyles (probably will be in 2025 class though)
9. Rob Dillingham
10. Dalton Knecht

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] not ordered yet but will be trimmed down
Alex Sarr
Stephon Castle
Da’Ron Holmes
Matas Buzelis
Jared McCain
Cody Williams
Zac Risacher
Johnny Furphy
Hansen Yang
Kel’el Ware
Tyler Kolek
Ryan Dunn
Jonathan Mogbo
Isaiah Collier
Jamal Shead
Ja'Kobe Walter

Clingan as a top 3 prospect? What makes you think that? He seems like a Walker Kessler at best.
Edey top 6? I need an explanation for this one as well.
Thanks for putting in the work though, I always like the tier graph.

Just copying my post from the draft board, because it explains why some of the guys on my board are way higher than consensus and vice versa:

The idea of Clingan having all star potential definitely does revolve around his defense. I think he can become an elite anchor, and is a legit game changer on that end, like Gobert-lite (he’s not as fluid as Rudy).
The numbers for UCONN with him on the court have been special the past two seasons, he makes a huge impact. Last year he was number 1 in adjusted team eff margin in the NCAA, this year he is still number 3, while playing a much bigger role, UCONN a top 10 defensive team both years he's been there, and weren't top 50 the year prior.

I think he can give you more offensively than Rudy offensively though. He’s a very good passer out of the high post and finds cutters really well. He rarely makes mistakes. 13% AST and only 8.8% TO rate, almost at 2:1 AST/TO ratio, he’s at 1.9.

Also, and this goes for the Carter ranking too, I value production very highly. I’ve come to believe it’s an important part of the risk reduction for drafting busts. As a general foundational rule, my opinion is that if a player does not have elite production in college (or overseas) they are unlikely to do so in the nba. The logic is basically that good players in the nba were very good in their prior league, and the best predictor of future success is past success. So, that knocks a few guys down for me who are much higher on consensus boards, and leaves less people to put in front of guys like Clingan and Carter. Of course there are exceptions, but I think people fall too in love with what the player could be compared with the reality of who they are. I think I actually read something similar from you earlier. And I can’t really argue against Clingan’s production for the past two seasons. He’s been elite BPM wise both years and all his metrics are outstanding.

I know it’s not a ‘sexy’ pick, and the current meta is to take centers later and take wings and guards early, but I’m still of the opinion I would rather take good centers before mediocre wings and guards, and this class has a lot of the latter imo.

As for Carter, he’s just too productive to have much lower for me. I made the mistake of having Podz lower than I wanted last year, and it kept me leaving him outside the top 10. I won’t make the same mistake for Carter this time. He's so solid across the board and on both sides of the ball

https://www.espn.com.au/nba/insider/story/_/id/39749249/nba-rookie-power-rankings-victor-wembanyama-reigns-supreme-chet-holmgren

Just as a reference, ESPN put this out today, the rookie power rankings up to this point in the season

1. Wemby
2. Chet
3. Lively
4. Podz
5. Jaquez/ Miller
6. Miller / Jaquez

Now, I would say it’s likely this list changes through the years etc (not the top 2), but this reinforces my current thinking. The top two were not in the NCAA last year, but Wemby was MVP of an overseas league at 18 and Chet had 14.1 BPM (5th highest all time for a freshman).

So Lively, Podz, Jaquez and Miller were all in the NCAA last year. Even if we do something as simplistic as simply ranking last years NCAA class by their BPM, you would get the following list.



So all four of these ESPN listed guys were in the top eight for the class BPM wise, and two others were seniors who are already role players on their teams (Sasser and TJD). Clark tore his achilles and hasn't played and Picket hasn't done much for the Nuggets. But still, I think you could make an argument that Lively/Podz/Jaquez/Miller/TJD/Sasser potentially make up 6 of the 8 non Wemby/Chet spots in the top 10 rookies this season.

So yeah, thats a general note on why some guys have a huge variance between my board and the consensus board, guys like Risacher/Sarr/Williams are penalised, guys like Sheppard, Clingan, Flip, Carter, CMB, Holmes II are pushed up

As for Edey, I'm not really sure where to put him truthfully. There is a possibility/risk that he is literally just not worth playing in the NBA, at the same time, I have a hard time ignoring his production and dominance in the NCAA.
I've seen a few people compare him to Garza, on the basis of good offensive players in the NCAA who won't be able to play defense in the NBA, but I don't think it's a valid comparison. Edey dominates in ways that Gara did not. Edey dominates on offense through his unique physical gifts, he's 7'4/7'5, with a 7'10 wingspan and 300lbs, who has elite touch. There isn't really a comparison, aside from Yao and Wemby (he's much better than Boban), of a player this big being this skilled. And unless he magically shrinks overnight, that unique size will translate to the NBA.

Obviously on defense,he's a pure drop big, but he's improved a lot on that side of the ball this season. I think there is a chance he can survive as a drop big in the league. Additionally, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him developing some level of 3pt shot eventually, he's a decent free throw shooter on monstrous volume, and many people at Purdue seem to think he's a 3pt shooting threat at the NBA level, he just has never had to use it in the NCAA as he's arguably the most dominant inside scorer in the past 2 decades of NCAA ball.

[NYPiston]

my current board

Tier 1 - [Superstar prospect]

Tier 2 - [All NBA prospect]

Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
1. Nikola Topic
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]
4. Ron Holland
5. Kyle Filipowski
6. Zach Edey
7. Devin Carter
8. Collin Murray-Boyles (probably will be in 2025 class though)
9. Rob Dillingham
10. Dalton Knecht

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] not ordered yet but will be trimmed down
Alex Sarr
Stephon Castle
Da’Ron Holmes
Matas Buzelis
Jared McCain
Cody Williams
Zac Risacher
Johnny Furphy
Hansen Yang
Kel’el Ware
Tyler Kolek
Ryan Dunn
Jonathan Mogbo
Isaiah Collier
Jamal Shead
Ja'Kobe Walter

Clingan as a top 3 prospect? What makes you think that? He seems like a Walker Kessler at best.
Edey top 6? I need an explanation for this one as well.
Thanks for putting in the work though, I always like the tier graph.

Just copying my post from the draft board, because it explains why some of the guys on my board are way higher than consensus and vice versa:

The idea of Clingan having all star potential definitely does revolve around his defense. I think he can become an elite anchor, and is a legit game changer on that end, like Gobert-lite (he’s not as fluid as Rudy).
The numbers for UCONN with him on the court have been special the past two seasons, he makes a huge impact. Last year he was number 1 in adjusted team eff margin in the NCAA, this year he is still number 3, while playing a much bigger role, UCONN a top 10 defensive team both years he's been there, and weren't top 50 the year prior.

I think he can give you more offensively than Rudy offensively though. He’s a very good passer out of the high post and finds cutters really well. He rarely makes mistakes. 13% AST and only 8.8% TO rate, almost at 2:1 AST/TO ratio, he’s at 1.9.

Also, and this goes for the Carter ranking too, I value production very highly. I’ve come to believe it’s an important part of the risk reduction for drafting busts. As a general foundational rule, my opinion is that if a player does not have elite production in college (or overseas) they are unlikely to do so in the nba. The logic is basically that good players in the nba were very good in their prior league, and the best predictor of future success is past success. So, that knocks a few guys down for me who are much higher on consensus boards, and leaves less people to put in front of guys like Clingan and Carter. Of course there are exceptions, but I think people fall too in love with what the player could be compared with the reality of who they are. I think I actually read something similar from you earlier. And I can’t really argue against Clingan’s production for the past two seasons. He’s been elite BPM wise both years and all his metrics are outstanding.

I know it’s not a ‘sexy’ pick, and the current meta is to take centers later and take wings and guards early, but I’m still of the opinion I would rather take good centers before mediocre wings and guards, and this class has a lot of the latter imo.

As for Carter, he’s just too productive to have much lower for me. I made the mistake of having Podz lower than I wanted last year, and it kept me leaving him outside the top 10. I won’t make the same mistake for Carter this time. He's so solid across the board and on both sides of the ball

https://www.espn.com.au/nba/insider/story/_/id/39749249/nba-rookie-power-rankings-victor-wembanyama-reigns-supreme-chet-holmgren

Just as a reference, ESPN put this out today, the rookie power rankings up to this point in the season

1. Wemby
2. Chet
3. Lively
4. Podz
5. Jaquez/ Miller
6. Miller / Jaquez

Now, I would say it’s likely this list changes through the years etc (not the top 2), but this reinforces my current thinking. The top two were not in the NCAA last year, but Wemby was MVP of an overseas league at 18 and Chet had 14.1 BPM (5th highest all time for a freshman).

So Lively, Podz, Jaquez and Miller were all in the NCAA last year. Even if we do something as simplistic as simply ranking last years NCAA class by their BPM, you would get the following list.



So all four of these ESPN listed guys were in the top eight for the class BPM wise, and two others were seniors who are already role players on their teams (Sasser and TJD). Clark tore his achilles and hasn't played and Picket hasn't done much for the Nuggets. But still, I think you could make an argument that Lively/Podz/Jaquez/Miller/TJD/Sasser potentially make up 6 of the 8 non Wemby/Chet spots in the top 10 rookies this season.

So yeah, thats a general note on why some guys have a huge variance between my board and the consensus board, guys like Risacher/Sarr/Williams are penalised, guys like Sheppard, Clingan, Flip, Carter, CMB, Holmes II are pushed up

As for Edey, I'm not really sure where to put him truthfully. There is a possibility/risk that he is literally just not worth playing in the NBA, at the same time, I have a hard time ignoring his production and dominance in the NCAA.
I've seen a few people compare him to Garza, on the basis of good offensive players in the NCAA who won't be able to play defense in the NBA, but I don't think it's a valid comparison. Edey dominates in ways that Gara did not. Edey dominates on offense through his unique physical gifts, he's 7'4/7'5, with a 7'10 wingspan and 300lbs, who has elite touch. There isn't really a comparison, aside from Yao and Wemby (he's much better than Boban), of a player this big being this skilled. And unless he magically shrinks overnight, that unique size will translate to the NBA.

Obviously on defense,he's a pure drop big, but he's improved a lot on that side of the ball this season. I think there is a chance he can survive as a drop big in the league. Additionally, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him developing some level of 3pt shot eventually, he's a decent free throw shooter on monstrous volume, and many people at Purdue seem to think he's a 3pt shooting threat at the NBA level, he just has never had to use it in the NCAA as he's arguably the most dominant inside scorer in the past 2 decades of NCAA ball.

Appreciate the rundown and you make some valid points but for me to take a defensive center in the top 5, I need to be assured that he's the next Rudy Gobert and Rudy is an exception. I'd rather take my chances on a wing/power forward that's more raw but has more upside. I'd definitely give Clingan a look in the lower half of the lottery where guys like Duren, Williams and Lively got taken (much less risk in the 8-15 range) but at top 5, I need to bank on upside and I think Clingan's is limited.