2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

Pharmcat · Post #501 » by **Pharmcat** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:07 pm

how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

Roger Murdock · Post #502 » by **Roger Murdock** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 10:23 pm

Pharmcat wrote:how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

As a Browns fan I am more anxious than anything. I got a bad feeling we are going to take Weeden.

skorff26 · Post #503 » by **skorff26** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 11:06 pm

I got 2 questions

1) I got a question in regards to your rankings. They aren't really close to the actual mock drafts. Fletcher Cox usually is #1 DT usually and you have him #6. Coples almost always top 3, you have him #5. Kuechly #2 in stead of #1.

Now my question is? Do a lot of teams usually have their big boards with large discrepancies from the positional rankings that we usually see? Or are they usually not that far off?

2) Is there any website/person whose mock draft you take more note of then the rest?

SpeedyG · Post #504 » by **SpeedyG** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:12 am

Pharmcat wrote:how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

I'd be more excited if my Jags were picking 4th like they should have been with a loss against Indy in the final game of the season. We're in no man's land, and I'm generally not in love with any of the prospects 7 on down. It's like I can grab a player projected at 7 and find reasons for him to also be projected at 15 or even early 20s.

Pharmcat · Post #505 » by **Pharmcat** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:55 am

SpeedyG wrote:
Pharmcat wrote:how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

I'd be more excited if my Jags were picking 4th like they should have been with a loss against Indy in the final game of the season. We're in no man's land, and I'm generally not in love with any of the prospects 7 on down. It's like I can grab a player projected at 7 and find reasons for him to also be projected at 15 or even early 20s.

jags should trade down and pick up more picks

SpeedyG · Post #506 » by **SpeedyG** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:44 am

Pharmcat wrote:
SpeedyG wrote:
Pharmcat wrote:how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

I'd be more excited if my Jags were picking 4th like they should have been with a loss against Indy in the final game of the season. We're in no man's land, and I'm generally not in love with any of the prospects 7 on down. It's like I can grab a player projected at 7 and find reasons for him to also be projected at 15 or even early 20s.

jags should trade down and pick up more picks

I think that's pretty much the consensus. The only question is whether they can find someone to move up.

Post #507 » by **GYBE** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:51 pm

I was pretty surprised to see Harrison Smith at 42 in the latest mock, even getting a mention at the Packers 1st round pick. He is a bit of a playmaker, but I was never impressed with his coverage skills. He started his career at ND as a linebacker for a reason.

Pharmcat · Post #508 » by **Pharmcat** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:07 pm

my feeling: jets trade up to get ingram

what do you think jeff?

Dr Positivity · Post #509 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 7:39 pm

Can you elaborate on the Bills drafting WR/QB/TE/CB/CB. Last year the lack of depth in the O line destroyed the season, are they really going to spend all 5 picks without trying to address that? Also a QB with a good Rd 2 pick would disappoint me a ton. I won't try to say I know anything about these prospects but position wise that draft disgusts me

Post #510 » by **Icness** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:22 pm

ohara wrote:Husker's CB Dennard gets arrested for Assault on a Police Officer, less than a week before the NFL Draft. KInda thought he was at best a late 2nd but more likely a 3rd round pick. Wonder what this will do to his stock and draft status? Think the last play he had was where he and Alshon Jefferies go into it at the Bowl game and they both were ejected. Young man has been doing more fighting than playing the last few months.

Def. out of the first two days of the draft. He was the worst cover man during Senior Bowl week too, so he was already trending in the wrong direction. I'm slotting him at Rams at top of 5th.

Post #511 » by **Icness** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:45 pm

skorff26 wrote:I got 2 questions

1) I got a question in regards to your rankings. They aren't really close to the actual mock drafts. Fletcher Cox usually is #1 DT usually and you have him #6. Coples almost always top 3, you have him #5. Kuechly #2 in stead of #1.

Now my question is? Do a lot of teams usually have their big boards with large discrepancies from the positional rankings that we usually see? Or are they usually not that far off?

2) Is there any website/person whose mock draft you take more note of then the rest?

My rankings have literally nothing to do with my mocks. Ranking players and slotting players is two very different things. My rankings are my opinions on players, with some influence from scouts I trust on players I can't see enough of to properly evaluate. My mocks reflect a great deal of input from scouts, front office people, beat writers, and agents I trust about where players will go.

Teams big boards absolutely look very different from what you are conditioned to believe by ESPN and NFLN. Some teams will favor or downgrade certain players based on schematic fit. Example: Duane Brown was the 13th tackle on the board in 2008, behind Anthony Collins (whom they drafted), ONeil Cousins, Jeremy Zuttah, King Dunlap and some others. He was not a scheme fit at all; the Bengals value physicality and strong arm extension power, which Brown lacked. He went to the Texans in the first and was arguably the 2nd best LT in the AFC last year because he fits their agile zone scheme perfectly. I've been in two different war rooms during drafts and the way they tier players and value certain qualities over others are a lot more divergent than I expected. Having a straight big board rankings is really disingenuous, but it's too time consuming to produce big boards for every team. Actually there's a group of us draftniks that have tossed around the idea of working on that next year. We'll see...

I am a big advocate of Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly. I also like Ryan Lownes of Draftbreakdown.com, Greg Cosell of NFL Films, and Lance Zeirlein of TheSidelineView.com, among others. Also Brad Clark at nflsfuture.com, where I also contribute. That's for scouting player purposes.

For mock slotting, I pick up whatever I can from Gil Brandt (though he's slipped a little the last couple of years) and Pat Kirwan of Sirius and NFL.com. Honestly I do not pay any attention to any other mocks after the Combine because I've found I do just as well on my own devices and it can cloud my opinions. I haven't seen another mock in weeks this year other than for personal amusement; I don't crib slots or concepts from them, not consciously anyways.

Post #512 » by **Icness** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:46 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:
Pharmcat wrote:how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

As a Browns fan I am more anxious than anything. I got a bad feeling we are going to take Weeden.

Would you rather have Brock Osweiler? Because that is a distinct possibility. Not at 22 though.

Post #513 » by **Icness** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:48 pm

Pharmcat wrote:my feeling: jets trade up to get ingram

what do you think jeff?

Been trumpeting that for a few weeks now. I know they like him, just not sure if they like him enough to give up next year's 1st to move up to #6 or 7. I would and I think the sense of desperation with management there will let them do it.

Post #514 » by **Icness** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:54 pm

GYBE wrote:I was pretty surprised to see Harrison Smith at 42 in the latest mock, even getting a mention at the Packers 1st round pick. He is a bit of a playmaker, but I was never impressed with his coverage skills. He started his career at ND as a linebacker for a reason.

Smith is #68 on my overall rankings so obviously I think that talk is absurd. Doesn't mean it won't happen though, and the Packers rumors are coming from a place that has been right on them before.

Post #515 » by **studcrackers** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:57 am

Roger Murdock wrote:
Pharmcat wrote:how is the excitement level with the draft coming up?

I cant wait for the action

As a Browns fan I am more anxious than anything. I got a bad feeling we are going to take Weeden.

you shouldnt feel bad about that, he's a helluva lot better than the options you presently have

Post #516 » by **Icness** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:08 pm

Weeden throws the best intermediate ball and over the middle ball of any QB in this draft, Luck included. Release and arm angle are picture perfect. But he hasn't done much in the way of progressing through reads and his accuracy takes a sharp decline when he's under pressure.

aggo · Post #517 » by **aggo** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 5:18 pm

Hey Jeff, weird question about the combine & drills

How much stock do teams actually put into a guy looking phenomenal in the position drills?

I was browsing some of the combine vids on nfl.com and noticed Doug Martin. He looked ridiculously fluid in the position drills. His feet were quick and his change of direction around each cone just screamed elite athleticism. No stopping + starting, his hips looked good and he showed great burst out of his cuts and breaks. Compared to the rest of the RB clips I saw on nfl, he was clearly above the rest in that regard.

Do teams make a note of these things and go back to the game tape to see if what he does in the drills translate to actual in game situations? How do teams evaluate RBs in general then? Seems like a gigantic guessing game unless you have tons and tons of tape and fully understand the blocking schemes and running plays hes used.

Susan · Post #518 » by **Susan** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 6:11 pm

Now that we're a couple of days away, where do you see the Bears going with their first couple of picks?

Post #519 » by **Icness** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 6:32 pm

AggO wrote:Hey Jeff, weird question about the combine & drills

How much stock do teams actually put into a guy looking phenomenal in the position drills?

I was browsing some of the combine vids on nfl.com and noticed Doug Martin. He looked ridiculously fluid in the position drills. His feet were quick and his change of direction around each cone just screamed elite athleticism. No stopping + starting, his hips looked good and he showed great burst out of his cuts and breaks. Compared to the rest of the RB clips I saw on nfl, he was clearly above the rest in that regard.

Do teams make a note of these things and go back to the game tape to see if what he does in the drills translate to actual in game situations? How do teams evaluate RBs in general then? Seems like a gigantic guessing game unless you have tons and tons of tape and fully understand the blocking schemes and running plays hes used.

Yes they do go back and check tape to make sure what they see in workouts translated to the field in college. Some teams do that more thoroughly than others.

Running back is arguably the most subjective position to scout. I know of multiple round variations between teams for certain RBs and it's like that every year. Stats from college are pretty much meaningless and that makes it tough. Context of accomplishment is so important. Two biggest traits to look at are leg drive/strength and ability to beat a LB in open field situations. That's where guys like MJD and Matt Forte thrive and guys like Shonn Greene and Knowshon Moreno struggle.

Not a steadfast rule but in general one knee surgery is okay, two is a real flag and more than that is no chance. Hip and back injuries are immediate red flags.

Post #520 » by **Icness** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 6:35 pm

Susan wrote:Now that we're a couple of days away, where do you see the Bears going with their first couple of picks?

First round pick will absolutely be in the defensive front seven. Could be Kuechly, could be Mercilus, could be McClellin, could be Brockers, could be Poe, could be Upshaw. Probably in that order of preference but that is based on info I got last week.

Second round will either be WR or CB unless the right OL is there or they fell back in the first and went off the above board and surprised with the 1st. You will see a RB taken sometime Saturday and don't be surprised to see more than one OL taken.