Mock Draft 3.0

[Icness]

http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... ersion_30/

Round 1

1. Carolina Panthers: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Forget that they drafted three quarterbacks in 2010, because they will have a brand new coaching staff and front office in 2011. Nothing will be more appealing to a new regime than getting to start fresh with Luck, whom many scouts and personnel evaluators consider the best QB to hit the draft since Peyton Manning.

2. Detroit Lions: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

A physical big-play corner with great size and confidence, Peterson offers bonus value as an exceptional return man. The Lions are a defense that values corners that can both create INTs and tackle, and that’s Peterson. Questions about his top-end speed are overstated, just as they were about Joe Haden--who isn’t as fast or dynamic as Peterson yet is still having a Rookie of the Year-type season for Cleveland.

3. Cincinnati Bengals: DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson

One long-time scout I spoke with recently compared Bowers to Bruce Smith, a powerful bull that can disrupt the run and get to the QB from a 5-technique. Cincy will have a new coaching staff in place in 2011, so they might want to address the ugly Carson Palmer decline here instead.

4. Buffalo Bills: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

Wide receiver is not their biggest need (DE, LB, OL) but the Bills have never been shy about choosing top-end talent over need. Green will grade out the highest of any remaining player regardless of position for a lot of people, and I would bet that’s true of GM Buddy Nix here.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State

I make this selection based on my belief that they will go after a veteran QB (McNabb? Vince Young?) and will want to bolster the protection to keep that investment upright. Sherrod is going to be a draft board riser once OL-needy coaches start to watch Bulldogs game tape.

6. Denver Broncos: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

No matter whom they bring in as the new coach and decision maker, the Broncos must upgrade their up-the-gut defense. Fairley has a lot of Shaun Rogers to his game, and he has the athletic prowess to be a star as either a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

This might actually be low for Newton, who brings great leadership presence along with his crazy size and athleticism. He’s a far more accurate and consistent thrower than Jake Locker even with his limited experience, but the presence is what will make him an easy sell for the Niners.

8. Dallas Cowboys: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

Dareus is very attractive to 3-4 defensive teams because he’s already thrived in that scheme under a former NFL coach at Alabama. He is a more dynamic (potentially) version of 2009 #3 overall pick Tyson Jackson, though he does have some bust factor to him too.

9. Tennessee Titans: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M:

It’s rare that an injury helps a player, but a bad ankle forced Miller to learn to read plays better and not rely on his freakish quickness and closing speed. Those attributes came back and now Miller is a much better all-around talent that happened to lead the nation in sacks in 2009.

10. Washington Redskins: Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Mike Shanahan loves the mobile, gutsy gunslinger QB, and that aptly describes Locker. It’s at this point that I provide the friendly reminder that these picks do not necessarily reflect what I would do with the given selections, and that reminder here is not a coincidence.



We'll start hearing underclassmen intentions as the bowl season kicks off, which could make some big hcanges here. I met Nick Fairley the other night in Houston at the awards banquet and there's no doubt in my mind he's coming out. Newton too--I'm not sure Auburn would let him come back.

Toughest guys to slot right now are the UNC guys, esp. Quinn and Austin. Both are top 10 talents but carry some weighty baggage.

[trwi7]

Has Watt's stock really gone that high? I can't imagine him coming back for his senior season if he's a mid 1st rounder.

[DirtyDez]

Sherrod in the top 5?? I'd rather help the defense by improving the pass rush or secondary. My pick would be Amukamara or Quinn. John Skelton is starting Sunday we'll know more about the QB situation soon. Levi Brown is a joke but he'll be replaced by Jeremy Bridges next year at LT.

[studcrackers]

what's the reasoning for julio falling to 21? im shocked you have him below blackmon, is it injury concerns? b/c i think there's not that much difference between the top 3 guys

like the dareus pick for the cowboys, they need either a 3-4 end a secondary player (with the recent success for the boys there's no way they'll get patterson but perhaps prince) would love if nick fairley somehow fell to us, as a bama fan that guy is a terror to watch, the cam newton of that auburn defense.

also love that kendall hunter has moved into your top 2 rounds, only thing keeping him from being a successful nfl back are injuries IMO

[Icness]

Has Watt's stock really gone that high? I can't imagine him coming back for his senior season if he's a mid 1st rounder.

I'm probably optimistic on him there but he's no lower than #40.

what's the reasoning for julio falling to 21? im shocked you have him below blackmon, is it injury concerns? b/c i think there's not that much difference between the top 3 guys

Injuries have a lot to do with it. He's also not as top-end fast as any of the other top guys. Just guessing but I doubt he cracks 4.50 and his lateral agility isn't great either. Blackmon has that change-of-gears speed to get separation that coaches love.

I talked to an NFL scouting director this morning and he told me Jake Locker sits 7th on their QB list right now. I'm not a Locker fan at all but I'm stunned he's below Pat Devlin and Ricky Stanzi.

[Rafael122]

If the Skins pick Locker...I don't know what I'll do, probably nothing, but...wow...a tough season and all we have to show for it is Jake Locker.

[LApwnd]

as a niner FAN I am not sure how to feel bout Newton, I'm hoping he's a better version of Vick (better passing that is)

[WAYSA]

Tyron Smith is declaring.

I think he's going to jump up boards. Just turned 20 years old..

[Roger Murdock]

What do you think about Dontay Moch? Hes a guy whos predicted to go late 2nd to 4th round from what I am seeing but I think he could be this seasons guy who shoots up the charts later in the year, to maybe mid first round like Larry English or Jason Paul-Pierre. He is freakishly athletic, has good size, and has pretty darn good production as well. A 3-4 team will draft him high when he runs a 4.45 at 250 lbs.

[Icness]

What do you think about Dontay Moch? Hes a guy whos predicted to go late 2nd to 4th round from what I am seeing but I think he could be this seasons guy who shoots up the charts later in the year, to maybe mid first round like Larry English or Jason Paul-Pierre. He is freakishly athletic, has good size, and has pretty darn good production as well. A 3-4 team will draft him high when he runs a 4.45 at 250 lbs.

I covered Moch a couple weeks ago in the $.10. He's got a lot of Terrell Suggs to him, but I can also see him being in a Lance Briggs role and doing very well. Moch makes a ton of plays in the backfield but he's not really a great pass rusher, more of an opportunist in that regard. His closing speed in unreal for a college LB and he totally overwhelms the MWC with it. He will have to learn to use his hands and shoulders more. He's not 250 either, more like 242, but he is absolutely legit at 4.40-4.45 in the 40. He might not be strong enough in the lower body to handle OLB in a 3-4. I very much perfer him to Jerry Hughes, who was a similar type of college player and who hasn't done crap for the Colts.

I think he's in the mix between 25-50 overall. Sounds like he's heading to the Senior Bowl so that will help make or break him.

[ChronicKerr]

Noticed about a week or two after CL rucker got suspended you still had him as a 2nd rounder (you had him as a top 5 CB) and I havne't seen his name since on your mocks. I personally don't believe he has any character concerns. I didn't think he was NFL material after watching him blow the game for us at Iowa last year but this year his physical play impressed me. Did the suspension really hurt his draft stock? Where do you think he'll end up going?

[Icness]

Noticed about a week or two after CL rucker got suspended you still had him as a 2nd rounder (you had him as a top 5 CB) and I havne't seen his name since on your mocks. I personally don't believe he has any character concerns. I didn't think he was NFL material after watching him blow the game for us at Iowa last year but this year his physical play impressed me. Did the suspension really hurt his draft stock? Where do you think he'll end up going?

The suspension didn't help him, but what is hurting him is how often he breaks down in coverage. He's tight-hipped and not always quick to break on the ball. I almost see him as more of a safety in the NFL. He's probably still a 4th-5th rounder.

[trwi7]

Thoughts on John Moffitt?

[Roger Murdock]

Just for fun I'll do a first round mock using current draft order.

1. Carolina - Luck - Clausen hasn't looked good and apparently lost the faith of the offensive players, hes too good to pass
2. Cincinatti - Fairley - He strikes me as the Bengals type player, bad attitude and occasional stupid decisions combined with huge talent and production, they need DT more than DE in my opinion.
3. Denver - Amukamara- They need defensive help and hes a special player at a position of need. Champ is likely gone
4. Detroit - P Peterson - They get thrown on at will. Hes an elite talent who can help the return game as well.
5. Buffalo - AJ Green - They take the exciting player like they did last year with Spiller and try to give Fitz a weapon.
6. Arizona - Dareus - I think they trade for a QB because they can compete in their division ASAP with a good QB and Dareus would really help their defense out.
7. Dallas - Derek Sherrod - They would have liked any of the 4 D players already taken here but go with a talented O-linemen to fix their terrible line.
8. San Fran - Quinn - Fits their 3-4 defense well as a rush linebacker that could really improve their team. I don't see them going for Newton or Locker and Mallet doesnt fit their team.
9. Tenn - Bowers - Not the biggest need for their team but too good to pass on at this point.
10. Washington - Julio Jones - I struggled with this pick but think Shanahan will want to give his offense more punch
11. Houston - Brandon Harris - A huge need pick
12. Minnesota - Cam Newton - The vikings offense could be a good fit for him, worth the risk here
13. Cleveland - Blackmon - The YAC receiver that the team needs to help the offense and colt mccoy.
14. New England - Kerrigan - Bellichek will look to improve his D with the way Brady is making plays despite the lack of talent. He fits their system
15. Seattle - Locker - Pete Carroll said Locker is one of the most talented players he has ever seen, and needs a QB
16. SD - Peae - They could use more youth and talent at D-line
17. Indy - Costanzo - This team needs O-line in a big way
18. Miami - Mallet - I dont see a reason why Henne deserves another year, but could see them taking Ingram here too
19. Tampa - Akem Ayers - Hes really good and would fit well on in the tampa d
20. Green Bay - Von Miller - More defensive help needed, helps shore up their LB corp
21. St L - Broyes - Get Bradford a weapon that he is familiar with
22. Jax - J Jenkins - Can't have too much depth in the defensive backfield in the AFC N
23. KC - Jimmy Smith - I could see him being a really good fit in a Romeo Crennel D
24. Chicago - Gabe Carimi - Help on the line could save Cutlers life
25. NYG - JJ Watt - High motor d-lineman that could help their front 4 be the force it used to be
26. NYJ - Ingram - They are a power running team and with LT old and Shonn Green not that good he would be the RB of the future, if not now right away
27. Baltimore - Rahim Moore - Their DBs arent that good and Reed is old and wont play much longer
28. New O - Cam Hayward - I think hes being underrated after a weird year. Good all around and having an off year rushing the passer
29. Philly - Rudolph - Celek is good, but I think they could add another weapon in the intermidiate passing game and give them blocking skills too. Two TE sets could be really good for them.
30. Pitt - Solder - They have a terrible O-line and solder is great value
31. NE - Baldwin - They don't really have many needs so Baldwin seems like good value
32. Atlanta - J Houston - The home town boy is climbing up the charts

[Icness]

Thoughts on John Moffitt?

He's got longer arms than I thought. Real solid low-ceiling/high-floor right guard that could slide outside in a pinch. Probably a 4th-5th rounder, there's a real glut of guys like him in that range and he's a little stiffer than most of them, but he's probably scrappier than most.

[DirtyDez]

6. Arizona - Dareus - I think they trade for a QB because they can compete in their division ASAP with a good QB and Dareus would really help their defense out.

The thing is we run a 3-4 and i think he'd have a hard time fitting in at End. Calais Cambell plays right end and leads the team in sacks. Darnell Dockett plays left end (just signed 6 yr/60 mil extension and our 1st round pick last year was NT Dan Williams so i don't know where Dareus would fit. Cambell is a FA after next season so i'd be okay replacing him w/ Dareus if he's truly BPA at our pick and loses 15 pounds. I think he's perfect as a 4-3 DT and will probably go to a team that runs that defense.

13. Cleveland - Blackmon - The YAC receiver that the team needs to help the offense and colt mccoy.

Great pick for your Browns. He's probably the 3rd best reciever in the country after Green and Jeffry. People knock him for putting huge numbers in the spread but give me Blackmon's production over Julio Jones' athleticism.

Thoughts on John Moffitt?

He'd look good staying in red.

[SteveScheffler]

what kind of a pick is matt flynn worth after his game vs the pats?

[CJ_18]

Icness do you have anything on Texas S Blake Gideon?

[Icness]

what kind of a pick is matt flynn worth after his game vs the pats?

Two things stood out about Flynn:
1. He can handle his business with confidence and moxie
2. His arm strength is a very real limitation

Hard to figure what the going rate for a dependable backup QB will be. Shaun Hill brought back a 4th, Charlie Whitsehurst a 3rd IIRC. If that stays consistent Flynn could realistically draw a pick in the 90-120 overall range.

I'll bet good money Green Bay gets more in return for Flynn than Washington does for Donovan McNabb, if both are dealt. That balloon payment on McNabb's contract is a deal killer.

[Icness]

Icness do you have anything on Texas S Blake Gideon?

Overrated is the first word. All the Texas defenders this year fit that bill, none more than Acho. One of the things that surprised me in getting to know the Texas schools a lot better is how overhyped the "athleticism" factor is, esp. at UT. Gideon is a solid, smart safety but he doesn't offer much in the way of playmaking and he's not a real good athlete for the position. IMO he's a 3rd safety and special teamer in the NFL, and that equals 6th-7th round status.

The general consensus is that he's coming back next year but he apparently did apply for evaluation.