Icness 5.0 Mock

[WAYSA]

http://football.realgm.com/src_feature/ ... dition%29/

Marvin Austin seems like a perfect fit for Marinelli & the Bears.

Have you heard anything that has him linked towards the Bears or is this just an early estimate? He does make an awful lot of sense for the Bears..

[Cammo101]

Jernigan to the Bucs has a less than 0% chance of happening.

[94feet]

With all the media possibilites, can the world even handle Chad Eightfive in New York?

[Icness]

Some random thoughts on my thoughts:
--most trades came as the result of a specific team targeting a specific player and moving to get them, not necessarily a team deliberately trying to move backwards or forwards for the sake of trading.

--there seems like a very big dropoff after about the 45th pick, which fostered a lot of action at the top of the 2nd round. That's pretty historically consistent too; the most traded picks are those between 20-40 and then in the first and last 3 picks of every subsequent round.

--for the record, I don't rate any of these QBs with a first-round grade. Gabbert is my top guy but his inability to count options beyond "1" scares the hell out of me. It's a similar problem to what Vince Young has; if his primary route option is taken away, he either runs or forces the ball, often both at the same time. That works in college but gets you a -3 turnover ratio in the NFL.

Ryan Mallett is getting a lot of Ryan Leaf 2.0 talk, but I don't see it. He's competitive and emotional but he's more like Philip Rivers or Matt Hasselbeck than a guy teammates hate like Leaf or Jeff George. The people I know at Arkansas rave about how much he matured into a great leader and more dedicated student of the game over the past year and I'll trust them before I trust some draftnik that I know has never seen him play in person (I have, twice FYI...three times if you count his Michigan tenure). What bugs me about Mallett is how awful he is when pressured. His mechanics go from ideal to awful; he hurries his release, doesn't step into his throw, drops his shoulder, and makes panicked decisions. It's very much like Rex Grossman in that regard. Mallett has a better arm and much better size than Rex but hopefully you catch my drift.

For you Jake Locker fans, here's his numbers on 3rd down and less than 8 in the last two seasons:
46 of 102, 282 yards, 37 conversions, 8 INTS, one TD. He once went 13 quarters without converting a 3rd down via the pass. He's Bruce Gradkowski with size folks, don't buy the hype.

[jakecronus8]

Interesting Green Bay pick. Have you heard anything specific about them liking Watt, and do you think he has the ability to play rush LB in 3-4?

[trwi7]

If Ayers is there at 28, I'd rather just not trade up to take Watt, keep the pick and take Ayers and keep our 3rd.

[Turk Nowitzki]

Interesting Green Bay pick. Have you heard anything specific about them liking Watt, and do you think he has the ability to play rush LB in 3-4?

No chance, he's way too big.

[Icness]

Interesting Green Bay pick. Have you heard anything specific about them liking Watt, and do you think he has the ability to play rush LB in 3-4?

No chance, he's way too big.

I think he is strong enough to play RDE on base downs, he's not an OLB. When they go to a four-man front he would set the edge, probably not playing much in the base 3-4-4. But where I really see his value is in the pass rushing package. He's capable of playing 5 technique (3-4 DE), or playing further outside with a hand on teh ground or standing up, coming from either side. His strength and ability to get off blocks are a great asset against screens and draws, plus he can beat pass protection to both the inside and outside. Kevin Greene was like that in Pittsburgh and Carolina for Dom Capers and he did that at about 260. Watt is at least 280 but cut from the same cloth. Capers LOVES guys like that: smart, relentless, physical, versatile.

[Manhattan Project]

So the Jets draft Leonard Hankerson and then trade for OchoCinco? I'm operating under the assumption that we let Edwards and Holmes bolt and we resign Harris, Cromartie and make a splash on the defensive side of the ball?

Unless I'm operating under that assumption, I personally would hate this draft for the Jets. Curious to see what your operating under on this one since usually your not to far off.

[jakecronus8]

I love Watt but I've said before he reminds me of a prime Richard Seymour more than Kevin Greene. If the Packers let Cullen Jenkins walk or trade him, he's definitely worthy of their first round pick, given how much they go with 4 man fronts, and pass rushing packages. His ability to collapse a pocket could do wonders for Clay Matthews the 3. The hometown factor doesn't hurt either.

[MaryvalesFinest]

For the Cards QB situation, is that just a guess that they may go after one or both of those guys or is there some truth to that rumor?

[NO-KG-AI]

I'd put money on us not taking a RB in the first two rounds. Reggie is going to be back, Pierre might, and Chris Ivory is an animal, and the team is very high on Lynell Hamilton, Julius Jones played well, and the Saints keep finding capable runners all over the place.

But yea, Saints are very BPA, and we don't really value runners that high, especially given the talent. It's the same reason we probably won't get a LB

[Roger Murdock]

for the record, I don't rate any of these QBs with a first-round grade. Gabbert is my top guy but his inability to count options beyond "1" scares the hell out of me. It's a similar problem to what Vince Young has; if his primary route option is taken away, he either runs or forces the ball, often both at the same time. That works in college but gets you a -3 turnover ratio in the NFL.

What bugs me about Mallett is how awful he is when pressured. His mechanics go from ideal to awful; he hurries his release, doesn't step into his throw, drops his shoulder, and makes panicked decisions. It's very much like Rex Grossman in that regard. Mallett has a better arm and much better size than Rex but hopefully you catch my drift.

I wouldn't rate any of them with a first round grade either. The part you wrote about Mallet dealing with pressure is a big problem I see with Gabbert too. Gabberts footwork is pretty bad in the pocket and he looks like one of those basketball players who takes fade aways when hes wide open. He throws leaning back a lot.

[Icness]

For the Cards QB situation, is that just a guess that they may go after one or both of those guys or is there some truth to that rumor?

There are people that make decisions for that team that very strongly believe they would still be playing right now if they had a good QB. I get the sense they didn't really think Kurt Warner wasn't coming back and that he would see how badly they needed him and he would un-retire. I know there was optimism that Matt Leinart would step up and seize the team, but he chose a different path for himself and that is a major disappointment in the desert too.

They will absolutely be the most aggressive player in terms of going after veteran QB talent, more than even Minnesota. As for who that is, I'm just guessing now.

[DirtyDez]

Yes the Cards will sign or trade for a QB. Not draft one which is smart considering the QB's in this draft. Also, i think AZ would convert Quinn or Aldon Smith to OLB before taking Von Miller that high. Miller will get crushed by offensive lineman and exposed against the run, IMO.

[JaxMagic]

I can't see Jacksonville trading up especially for Locker and with Prince sitting there where they would have been picking. Gene Smith doesn't seem like the type to want to trade up, also rumor has it that he is completely in love with Andy Dalton.

[NO-KG-AI]

I dunno why everyone is so low on this years QB class.

There are 2 guys that were considered strong contenders for the #1 pick, and the rise of Cam Newton as well.

There isn't a Peyton Manning type in the draft anymore, and don't get me wrong, they all have issues, but the upside is massive there, and people are really starting to get ridiculous with thinking every QB with great physical tools is going to flop.

I just keep looking at Josh Freeman, who had consistency and accuracy issues coming out, and took some lumps early, but quietly played like the best young QB we've seen in a while (who can match 25 TDs, 6 picks with rookie starters at HB and both receiver spots? All this while being 22 years old, in his second season).

It IS possible for guys to take to coaching, and you can do a lot worse than getting a prospect as talented as Locker, Mallet, or Newton, even if they do require some work.

[TyCobb]

I dunno why everyone is so low on this years QB class.

There are 2 guys that were considered strong contenders for the #1 pick, and the rise of Cam Newton as well.

There isn't a Peyton Manning type in the draft anymore, and don't get me wrong, they all have issues, but the upside is massive there, and people are really starting to get ridiculous with thinking every QB with great physical tools is going to flop.

I just keep looking at Josh Freeman, who had consistency and accuracy issues coming out, and took some lumps early, but quietly played like the best young QB we've seen in a while (who can match 25 TDs, 6 picks with rookie starters at HB and both receiver spots? All this while being 22 years old, in his second season).

It IS possible for guys to take to coaching, and you can do a lot worse than getting a prospect as talented as Locker, Mallet, or Newton, even if they do require some work.

Amen, great post.

[St.Nick]

Im not crazy about the Niners tabbing McNabb as their QB with their 1st rd trade.

I see Orton going with a 2nd rd pick and he's a much more appealing QB to have running our offense. He's younger than McNabb, has been better the past several years, and has proven that he can succeed immediately while learning a new terminology.

If I'm SF I keep that #7 pick and draft Robert Quinn to be the edge pass rusher we haven't had in AGES. Trade the 2nd round pick for Orton (maybe see how far back we can trade in the round) and then fill the other gaps in the later rounds.

I think the Niners are an efficient QB, a pass rusher, and a #1 CB way from being a 10-12 win team, especially considering the division they play in. Dealing back for picks and using our #1 selection on a DE in our 3-4 defense is not what we should be focused on, IMO.

1) Draft Robert Quinn (or other edge rusher)
2) Orton for 2nd rd pick
3) Sign Nnamdi or Champ Bailey

Three solid moves like that and this team is on its way.

[Icness]

I dunno why everyone is so low on this years QB class.

There are 2 guys that were considered strong contenders for the #1 pick, and the rise of Cam Newton as well.

There isn't a Peyton Manning type in the draft anymore, and don't get me wrong, they all have issues, but the upside is massive there, and people are really starting to get ridiculous with thinking every QB with great physical tools is going to flop.

I just keep looking at Josh Freeman, who had consistency and accuracy issues coming out, and took some lumps early, but quietly played like the best young QB we've seen in a while (who can match 25 TDs, 6 picks with rookie starters at HB and both receiver spots? All this while being 22 years old, in his second season).

It IS possible for guys to take to coaching, and you can do a lot worse than getting a prospect as talented as Locker, Mallet, or Newton, even if they do require some work.

The issue with developing the QBs is that the current coaching staff is often gone before those buds turn into flowers. Plus it's a lot of work and effort, and for every Freeman there's a Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn that flops quickly and sets back the franchise.
The labor uncertainty plays into it this year too. The draft is unchanged but teams cannot sign players or do any team activities until a new CBA is signed. So the developmental curve is set back; no rookie camps, no OTAs, probably no preseason. Tough sell to a coach to install a rookie QB as immediate help when there's no offseason program to groom him.

In general I strongly agree with your point and wish it was more prevalent