CDM_Stats wrote:
I'd say that if you say "<insert team> wins the title" and you didn't need to add a holy sh*t to either end of it, they are good. Its a very scientific and data based way to look at it, I know
Called DDV their 2nd option because he really is. Most plays attempted/touches that isnt Brunson. Its not as clear as most teams, but its their current reality
As for NBA.com/SS - the only time theres real discrepancies is when a guy like Kuminga or Draymond is compared to someone who isnt like them. System really isn't supposed to measure 2 guys in a rock fight from 3 because.. whats the value there? Plus cross-referencing is a bitch, because you can't just slap the 2 things together. Has to be done game to game - which shot had which level of coverage, etc. Lots of data cleaning.. so the payout better be worth it. Cant imagine that. But until teams actually look at Kuminga and don't invite the 3pter, hes a liability
I'd say your take on FW/JK in terms of improvement is almost the opposite of what's been proven to work in terms of future prediction. Making marginal improvements across the board, well except shooting, bodes well for continued improvement. Example: lets say there are tiers here, 1-5, 1 being awful, 2 poor, 3 good, 4 great, 5 elite. Instead of looking at it like 1-2-3-4-5, the reality is more like 1-2--3---4----5. Meaning its much harder to from good to great than awful to poor. Improving on something you're already good at is a fantastic sign - and to that end, Kuminga did improve on something he's good at too: finishing. That bodes well for his cutting/finishing game. But everywhere else he fell short... and since the Warriors only really needed that finishing/cutting to complement their very perimeter game, he's getting more shine than he should.
Now look at Franz, who apparently had a bad game 2 after a good game 1 (I'd assume? Metrics liked it anyways). He's not addressing the Magic's big need, but if he was? He'd be hailed as a superstar. Its just perception based on fit. But your perception is definitely slanted of him: he scored 19.7 ppg with a miserable 3ball this year, improving his midrange and finishing. If he hit his career average on 3s, he'd be a 22-23ppg guy. On top of that, 5 rebs, 3-4 assists, and one of the top 5-6 defensive SFs in the game. He's the secondary creator for them - right now. He's their best defender, right now. And for all the handling/creating he does, low turnovers. There's no shame in being 2nd to this guy, and JK's definitely 2nd to this guy if we're comparing them. Its not close and probably wont ever be, barring something that defies the long odds
If the only was a team is 'good' is if they're not a surprise to win the title, that is definitely a divergence in definitions. If the argument is that a championship favorite can't have a #2 scorer that isn't elite defensively or a 3pt shooter, I would probably agree. I thought "good" meant "slightly above average" but you can use it as you see fit, of course. I should have asked for clarification earlier before getting derailed in multiple posts.
If DDV is the 2nd option in NYK (I mostly agree even if he's 2nd only by default/injury and via committee), wasn't JK the 2nd option here after late Dec, early Jan? I get it, we're not a good team, by almost any definition, not just yours, but it's still a feather in his cap. He wasn't old enough to order a beer when the season started and still spent a decent chunk of the season carrying the offense on a 'not terrible offensive team.'
I get that NBA/SS line of thinking but don't you find it strange that two metrics that measure somewhat similar game situations diverge so significantly?
While I agree with your improvement example that it's harder to go from good to great or great to elite, that was kind of my point. I don't think Wagner has gotten to elite in any of the key skills he'd need to be an elite player. Can he get there? Maybe. I think he can be good at everything and possibly even very good but great, not so sure. Elite, pretty sure he won't. 5 rebs in 32 mins for a 6'11 combo forward doesn't sound great (per 36 has FW at 5.9rpg vs JK's 6.6rpg). I get the advanced stats may paint a different picture but 5 rpg isn't that great. The assists look nice but a ton of that is a function of having no creator at any other spot and he's really the only player on the team that can create for others.Has been that way all 3 seasons so he's had a real chance to craft that skill. On a good offense, he's probably a 3rd option as a scorer and a creator. Per 36 has FW at 4.1apg vs JK 3.0 despite FW being a 1st or 2nd option to create for others while JK is 5th behind SC, Dray, CP3, and Podz as a distributor. The low TOs are definitely FW's strength right now, no questions there.
I haven't heard anyone say FW is the best defender on the Magic. I don't watch that team nearly as often as you do but from what I've seen and heard, it's probably Isaac, Suggs, and then FW. I think the all defense team votes might bear that out.
As I asked before, do you think he'll ever be better than Siakam (a borderline all-star in a historically weak eastern conference?). What's the ceiling on a guy you probably don't want to be your best defender and definitely don't want to be your best offensive player.
I think JK went from poor (or even awful) to good (maybe great) in a couple of key areas, to use the scale you described. Getting to the line, converting FTs and his passing vision all took big jumps this season; his first with meaningful minutes and a consistent role. His scoring really jumped. It's hard from to go from being just a finisher and struggling at the line to almost doubling the scoring while maintaining the efficiency (above league avg. TS & eFG). I know you mentioned the ball handling is similar to last season due to the SS data but does that account for how much more he was handling the ball and how much more pressure he invited on the dribble? He'd bring the ball up, create above the break, handle in the mid-post - all things he did very rarely before this season. His dribble used to be on the break and off a cut or a couple easy dribbles into a long mid-range pullup. Eye test only but I felt he was much more secure driving to the basket through traffic and help defense than he used to be. I'm sure there's data on that but I just don't have access to it. Btw, more secure /= secure; I was still pretty nervous on his drives since I didn't think he was strong enough with the ball and it was a problem all season but especially when the rules changed after AllStar.
Regarding fit, JK has been called out, a number of times by his own coach, for not being able to shoot the ball and, thus, not being able to play the 3. I don't think he's getting more shine because the team needs cutters/finishers. I think it's because people imagine what he can do if he ever develops the 3pt shot. In fact, if he shot as well in the regular season as he did in pre-season (and for stretches like Dec/Jan and Mar/Apr) I think the team would have used him a lot more and he would have been much shinier. They really needed shooting this season.
By the way, I just read today he wasn't eligible for MIP because, despite playing over 65 games, he had only 61 games that counted (more than 20 mins).
