Bogut Watch - now with AdonalFoyle4Prez's poll

[FNQ]

Yeah, dont really need to make stuff up to drive the point home:

Monta on/off, Bucks, 2011-12: +1.3
Udoh on/off, Bucks, 2011-12: +6.0

Monta on/off, 12-13: -8.8
Udoh on/off, 12-13: +3.7

(x)RAPM

Monta: -0.87
Udoh: +2.02

Even the less accurate advanced stats (WS, for example) give the big advantage to Udoh, while all of them showing that Monta's best = a team netural performance.

To date, the Bucks have walked off with the most productive player from the trade, and it aint Monta

[EvanZ]

And the guy claimed we would have been worse had we kept him. If you buy into that.

You're talking about last year or this year? Because I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be 14-7 with Monta starting for us.

[turk3d]

And the guy claimed we would have been worse had we kept him. If you buy into that.

You're talking about last year or this year? Because I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be 14-7 with Monta starting for us.

Obviously last year.

[AussieBuck]

12.4 jumpers per game at .328 eFG.

Serious basketball IQ right there.

[turk3d]

Yeah, dont really need to make stuff up to drive the point home:

Monta on/off, Bucks, 2011-12: +1.3
Udoh on/off, Bucks, 2011-12: +6.0

Monta on/off, 12-13: -8.8
Udoh on/off, 12-13: +3.7

(x)RAPM

Monta: -0.87
Udoh: +2.02

Even the less accurate advanced stats (WS, for example) give the big advantage to Udoh, while all of them showing that Monta's best = a team netural performance.

To date, the Bucks have walked off with the most productive player from the trade, and it aint Monta

RAPM is not accurate for part time (vs fulltime) player comparison. You're a stat person, you should know that yet you keep trying to use RAPM in those circumstances which is misapplying it which is one of my biggest arguments when using stats. Gosh, if the guy were so great he would have played more than 20 mpg.

[FNQ]

12.4 jumpers per game at .328 eFG.

Serious basketball IQ right there.

A little more perspective on the trade:

Stephen Jackson is shooting abysmally this year, and is still a +0.39 eFG advantage over Monta. So that's 2 other player in the trade contributing more than he is

[FNQ]

RAPM is not accurate for part time (vs fulltime) player comparison. You're a stat person, you should know that yet you keep trying to use RAPM in those circumstances which is misapplying it which is one of my biggest arguments when using stats. Gosh, if the guy were so great he would have played more than 20 mpg.

You mean like usurping a starting role and often times playing the most minutes in a crowded backcourt?

Monta played in 24% of the Bucks available minutes in 11-12
Udoh played in 15%

Monta's played in 73% of the Bucks available minutes in 12-13
Udoh's played in 46%


So those extra 10 minutes on court per game is whats killing Monta I guess. Maybe if the Bucks only played him 22 mpg like Udoh, he'd be a huge net positive. Worth a shot, right? Then we could finally put the starter/reserve thing to bed, because all reserves fall off of a 12 pt / 100 possession cliff upon receiving an extra 10mpg

[turk3d]

Man, Stephen Jackson was traded to San Antonio and we received Richard Jefferson and their #1 (Ezelie). And yes, I'd say Jackson has played better than Jefferson. Haven't checked but perhaps his RAPM is better than Ezelie, another guy who averages 16 mpg. You're just full of surprises today.

[turk3d]

RAPM is not accurate for part time (vs fulltime) player comparison. You're a stat person, you should know that yet you keep trying to use RAPM in those circumstances which is misapplying it which is one of my biggest arguments when using stats. Gosh, if the guy were so great he would have played more than 20 mpg.

You mean like usurping a starting role and often times playing the most minutes in a crowded backcourt?

Monta played in 24% of the Bucks available minutes in 11-12
Udoh played in 15%

Monta's played in 73% of the Bucks available minutes in 12-13
Udoh's played in 46%


So those extra 10 minutes on court per game is whats killing Monta I guess. Maybe if the Bucks only played him 22 mpg like Udoh, he'd be a huge net positive. Worth a shot, right? Then we could finally put the starter/reserve thing to bed, because all reserves fall off of a 12 pt / 100 possession cliff upon receiving an extra 10mpg

I just think you should stop using RAPM in comparing players when one guy plays almost twice as many minutes and then all might be well. Find something else in your bag of tricks to try and prove your probably unprovable point.

[FNQ]

Man, Stephen Jackson was traded to San Antonio and we received Richard Jefferson and their #1 (Ezelie). And yes, I'd say Jackson has played better than Jefferson. Haven't checked but perhaps his RAPM is better than Ezelie, another guy who averages 16 mpg. You're just full of surprises today.

Stephen Jackson was in the trade.

Ezeli's RAPM shouldnt be compared to NBA players yet, because rookies start out at -8 and have to work their way up. Thats why a guy with a huge + impact like Drummond, who last I checked led all rookies in xRAPM, has only a -1.2 xRAPM right now.

Jack's xRAPM is -1.93.

[FNQ]

I just think you should stop using RAPM in comparing players when one guy plays almost twice as many minutes and then all might be well. Find something else in your bag of tricks to try and prove your probably unprovable point.

You mean something like on/off splits? Win shares? eFG? Synergy sports stats?

Things that I've listed already?

Even if you believe Udoh's peaked at 24mpg, would you rather have a quality 24mpg from a good role player, or a crappy 34mpg from a guy who's a giant net negative? Maybe you should bring your arguments to the Bucks board, from what I've seen, there's more Monta-hating bastards there than ever were here. It's just worldwide prejudice and only your level head can stop them

[AussieBuck]

12.4 jumpers per game at .328 eFG.

Serious basketball IQ right there.

A little more perspective on the trade:

Stephen Jackson is shooting abysmally this year, and is still a +0.39 eFG advantage over Monta. So that's 2 other player in the trade contributing more than he is

Yeah as we (or mostly me) say on the Bucks board, Kwame is still the second best guy we got back in the trade.

[turk3d]

I just think you should stop using RAPM in comparing players when one guy plays almost twice as many minutes and then all might be well. Find something else in your bag of tricks to try and prove your probably unprovable point.

You mean something like on/off splits? Win shares? eFG? Synergy sports stats?

Things that I've listed already?

Even if you believe Udoh's peaked at 24mpg, would you rather have a quality 24mpg from a good role player, or a crappy 34mpg from a guy who's a giant net negative? Maybe you should bring your arguments to the Bucks board, from what I've seen, there's more Monta-hating bastards there than ever were here. It's just worldwide prejudice and only your level head can stop them

That's Managements job, to determine what role a player is best suited for. If the player is forced to play a different role, then it's the players job to do the best they can and as far as Monta goes, he never complained, he gave 100%, was as durable as hell and did the best he could under extremely bad circumstances (probably the most dysfunctional franchise in the league for the past 18 years). I don't know what their peaks are, but I would say I value a fulltime proven starter (now I get why you wanted him to be a 6th man) over a part timer.

And "there's more Monta hating bastards" on the Bucks board, now that's funny (I bet they got a lot of that negative Monta stuff from our board though). Truthfully, I don't think that Monta is in the best place for him to be in Buckland. I think that he and Jennings could be an even worse match than he was with Curry who were actually quite good together offensively. Bucks are just one game out of 1st in their division if I'm not mistaken, same as us. Even though I'd say he's on a better team than he was with us the past several years, I don't think they are that good.

[FNQ]

Bucks are just one game out of 1st in their division if I'm not mistaken, same as us. Even though I'd say he's on a better team than he was with us the past several years, I don't think they are that good.

Yup, and they're doing it with Monta playing awful basketball

[turk3d]

One thing you seem to fail to realize, whoever Monta is playing against, he's a major threat to them and takes a lot of defensive pressure off of his teammates which create opportunities for them, even if he's playing seemingly bad. He really needs to play point guard imo (probably won't happen in Milwaukee due to Jennings) and instructed by his coach to look to set up teammates more consistently which he has proven he can do if that becomes his focus.

[AussieBuck]

Did Monta half half heartidly job while chasing curling guys around screens when he was a Warrior? His iso D is fine but he puts in Kobe like effort if he has to get out to a shooter.

[AussieBuck]

Skiles doesn't like turnovers and Ellis would average at least eleventy three if he had to play PG full time.

[turk3d]

Did Monta half half heartidly job while chasing curling guys around screens when he was a Warrior? His iso D is fine but he puts in Kobe like effort if he has to get out to a shooter.

He was never really asked to play D here except for his last season and a lot of that has to do with defensive schemes. I don't know what Skiles is doing these days but I do know from the past he'll get on guys when they're not doing what they're supposed to, especially on D. So if he's missing assignments that should be on the coach to fix it. Bench him if he has to.

I do know that Udrih has been giving you some good minutes over there this season so it's not like he doesn't have options. As far as his D here is concerned, in spite of what some might say there were times where he was considered as on of our best Defenders.

There was even a time where he was probably considered our best defender but unfortunately there were times he was pretty bad (like you said not bothering to defend guys but can when he wants to in most cases).

Of course, even when he was considered decent, that doesn't say much for our D overall (probably the worst in the league). What's kind of interesting is that the two guys considered the worst were Curry and Lee, who are both doing a decent job with our 2nd year coach and the new players that we got in (none of which we received in the trade) and our new defensive scheme .

[Coxy]

Skiles doesn't like turnovers and Ellis would average at least eleventy three if he had to play PG full time.

Monta's a 6th man scoring guard. Until a team uses him as that, they'll never get the best from his game.

[AussieBuck]

Skiles doesn't like turnovers and Ellis would average at least eleventy three if he had to play PG full time.

Monta's a 6th man scoring guard. Until a team uses him as that, they'll never get the best from his game.

Yeah this is fairly obvious to everyone except a select few highly paid 'experts.'