2024 JK Thread

[CDM_Stats]

How do you track agility?

These guys are obviously elite athletes, but they aren't getting by people with handles per say. They're getting downhill, lowering a shoulder and bumping people off. I mean they can do a cross over, and Giannis has a nasty euro step, but for the most part they attack bodies.

Its tracked the same way any movement is, distance and time, after the event (the change of direction), relative to their top speed, and then regularized against the average for their position

And for PFs, they get by people with their handles more than most at their position. Now I do not know how they do handles metrics, but both LeBron and Giannis are top 4 at PF. I dont trust those kind of metrics as much though because thats awful subjective and they typically use things like unforced TOs, dribbles, contested dribbles, and things like that which leave a lot of margin for error

I mean I agree they handle the ball more than other pfs and don't really lose the ball comparatively to pfs. Also will amend that Zion does use a lot of fakes and hesitations to attack. I mean obviously these guys are able to attack off the dribble better than just about any other player let alone pfs, which makes them who they are. I'm just not sure they have to use wiggle or as much creativity to get their shots off because of their immense size differences.

JK has improved on being able to get downhill this year though.

Its all relative.. when people thing agility, they'll think of the elite people (specifically, Kyrie) and comp to that. But think about all the starting PFs in the league.. how many have really solid handles and can change direction quickly?

Circling back to Kuminga, I think he's proven at this stage that he's a SF that can play some PF for stints, like Dray can play C. But you dont want him to live there, at least until the help defense and rebounding start happening, if they do. So its actually more important that he gets better on COD, especially defensively. Footwork is a huge part of it, but not the entirety

[Onus]

Its tracked the same way any movement is, distance and time, after the event (the change of direction), relative to their top speed, and then regularized against the average for their position

And for PFs, they get by people with their handles more than most at their position. Now I do not know how they do handles metrics, but both LeBron and Giannis are top 4 at PF. I dont trust those kind of metrics as much though because thats awful subjective and they typically use things like unforced TOs, dribbles, contested dribbles, and things like that which leave a lot of margin for error

I mean I agree they handle the ball more than other pfs and don't really lose the ball comparatively to pfs. Also will amend that Zion does use a lot of fakes and hesitations to attack. I mean obviously these guys are able to attack off the dribble better than just about any other player let alone pfs, which makes them who they are. I'm just not sure they have to use wiggle or as much creativity to get their shots off because of their immense size differences.

JK has improved on being able to get downhill this year though.

Its all relative.. when people thing agility, they'll think of the elite people (specifically, Kyrie) and comp to that. But think about all the starting PFs in the league.. how many have really solid handles and can change direction quickly?

Circling back to Kuminga, I think he's proven at this stage that he's a SF that can play some PF for stints, like Dray can play C. But you dont want him to live there, at least until the help defense and rebounding start happening, if they do. So its actually more important that he gets better on COD, especially defensively. Footwork is a huge part of it, but not the entirety

Yea I think he needs to be able to incorporate slight hesitations and feints to get those seams to open up. I’m just not sure if players who didn’t have it before develop it in the league.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Its tracked the same way any movement is, distance and time, after the event (the change of direction), relative to their top speed, and then regularized against the average for their position

And for PFs, they get by people with their handles more than most at their position. Now I do not know how they do handles metrics, but both LeBron and Giannis are top 4 at PF. I dont trust those kind of metrics as much though because thats awful subjective and they typically use things like unforced TOs, dribbles, contested dribbles, and things like that which leave a lot of margin for error

I mean I agree they handle the ball more than other pfs and don't really lose the ball comparatively to pfs. Also will amend that Zion does use a lot of fakes and hesitations to attack. I mean obviously these guys are able to attack off the dribble better than just about any other player let alone pfs, which makes them who they are. I'm just not sure they have to use wiggle or as much creativity to get their shots off because of their immense size differences.

JK has improved on being able to get downhill this year though.

Its all relative.. when people thing agility, they'll think of the elite people (specifically, Kyrie) and comp to that. But think about all the starting PFs in the league.. how many have really solid handles and can change direction quickly?

Circling back to Kuminga, I think he's proven at this stage that he's a SF that can play some PF for stints, like Dray can play C. But you dont want him to live there, at least until the help defense and rebounding start happening, if they do. So its actually more important that he gets better on COD, especially defensively. Footwork is a huge part of it, but not the entirety

I go back and forth on jks eventual position.

How many star small forwards are out there that can't dribble nor shoot?

How many power forwards that can't really rebound nor provide backline help?

[HiRez]

How many star small forwards are out there that can't dribble nor shoot?

How many power forwards that can't really rebound nor provide backline help?

JK shooting % by distance:

0-3 75.0%
3-10 51.7%
10-16 39.8%
16-3P 35.5%
3P 31.6%

Not great, but not really horrendous either. And he only takes about 15% of his shots from 10 feet out to the 3P line (wisely avoiding lower percentage shots).

In terms of rebounding, among Warriors rotation players reb/36, he's behind only Loon, TJD, Draymond, Saric, and Podz (all taller than him except for Podz who has freakish rebounding instincts). Ahead of Moody, GP2, and Wiggs. Again, not spectacular but not really that bad either.

And he started the year horrendously, so both his shooting and rebounding certainly improved over the season.

[billinder33]

If you listen to a lot of folks in the board, you'd be led to believe that JK is one of the worst players in the league. But if you look at the advanced stats, you'll mostly find 'average NBA starter'.

My concerns at this point are more about system fit and ability to play within the team framework moreso than the player's NBA viability. IMO you just have to ride this train to see where it stops, hopefully without overinvesting financially so you can have complementing players around him.

[Crazy-Canuck]

How many star small forwards are out there that can't dribble nor shoot?

How many power forwards that can't really rebound nor provide backline help?

JK shooting % by distance:

0-3 75.0%
3-10 51.7%
10-16 39.8%
16-3P 35.5%
3P 31.6%

Not great, but not really horrendous either. And he only takes about 15% of his shots from 10 feet out to the 3P line (wisely avoiding lower percentage shots).

In terms of rebounding, among Warriors rotation players reb/36, he's behind only Loon, TJD, Draymond, Saric, and Podz (all taller than him except for Podz who has freakish rebounding instincts). Ahead of Moody, GP2, and Wiggs. Again, not spectacular but not really that bad either.

And he started the year horrendously, so both his shooting and rebounding certainly improved over the season.

Rebounding, he should be far ahead of guys like wiggins, gp2, etc.. He's in a much better rebounding position. Thise guys are poa which means they are often not close enough to get those rebounds. He's got a low contested rebound rate considering he's generally in the paint area on defense.

If he's a 30% 3 pt shooter on wide open looks, I'd be lying if i wasnt concerned He's often getting a 3 ft cushion and can take that shot whenever he wants, but won't.

Now, none of this means he won't get better. He very well could. There's also a chance he doesn't. I don't think I'm wrong in saying that right now, jk is a poor rebounder, 3 pt shooter, and ball handler. It's why I'm torn on his position/role on this team.

I apologize if I don't jump in and claim he's the next giannis (because some have)nor do I think he's a bad player (I'm not sure any have said this) But he does have limitations.

[RUN-TJM]

Thank god he is back. Changes our “sameness” offensively.

Now we need a healthy Wiggs and we could roll any team not called Denver or OKC out west.

[floppymoose]

That game showed, yet again, that JK is nothing like Maggette.

[vvoland]

Thank god he is back. Changes our “sameness” offensively.

Now we need a healthy Wiggs and we could roll any team not called Denver or OKC out west.

I actually like our chances vs OKC more than the Minnesota Naz Reids

[michaelm]

Thank god he is back. Changes our “sameness” offensively.

Now we need a healthy Wiggs and we could roll any team not called Denver or OKC out west.

I actually like our chances vs OKC more than the Minnesota Naz Reids

I agree.

[michaelm]

Double.

[RUN-TJM]

Thank god he is back. Changes our “sameness” offensively.

Now we need a healthy Wiggs and we could roll any team not called Denver or OKC out west.

I actually like our chances vs OKC more than the Minnesota Naz Reids

I agree.

SGA will slaughter us in a 7 game series. Chet and Williams up front is a bad match up for us. Defensively they have Wiggins Dort and Wallace to harass Steph. Heck even Giddey is playing his best ball.

For the T-Wolves, Edward’s is a little less imposing than SGA but we’ve shown we can shut down Gobert. KAT is soft and with potentially 7 games, we should be able to tell our team that Naz can shoot and requires close attention.

Although I admit, that last point is a bit weak as Naz has destroyed us many times now.

[Crazy-Canuck]

I actually like our chances vs OKC more than the Minnesota Naz Reids

I agree.

SGA will slaughter us in a 7 game series. Chet and Williams up front is a bad match up for us. Defensively they have Wiggins Dort and Wallace to harass Steph. Heck even Giddey is playing his best ball.

For the T-Wolves, Edward’s is a little less imposing than SGA but we’ve shown we can shut down Gobert. KAT is soft and with potentially 7 games, we should be able to tell our team that Naz can shoot and requires close attention.

Although I admit, that last point is a bit weak as Naz has destroyed us many times now.

Sga doesn't bother me. The refs are letting the defense play more physical and wiggins is someone who diesnt foul alot. The problem is j. Williams. We dive really have a match up for him unless wiggins takes him abd gp2 takes sga.

[wco81]

So JK had some moments in the second quarter helping the Warriors stay close at half.

But he couldn't stay in front of Fox or even Murray when they were doing snake dribble around Sabonis handoffs for some easy 5-10 footers.

He was matched up against Sabonis and could pull up in the paint for uncontested looks against him. But when he tried to go all the way to the basket, he was stymied and that's not a good look because Sabonis isn't a great defender or rim protector.

He's being given all the shots he wants from 3 and that's what he's going to have to develop. He definitely improved as a FT shooter over the course of the season and he gets to the FT line okay but he hasn't found a way to do the foul-baiting and the refs are letting defenders contest him at the rim, with a lot of contact, and not get calls.

So I'd try to sign him to an extension no more than $20 AAV so that he's traceable and look to move him. I don't think he's it long term, though in the short term, when the team was struggling, his scoring at a very high efficiency rate in the paint did boost the team a little.

However, unless he becomes a 37.5% 3-point shooter or better on 5 or more shot attempts, his ceiling is rather limited.

Seems premature to be saying that of a 21.5 year old. He's shown improvement in some areas and it would be nice to see another jump over the offseason.

[wco81]

It will be interesting to see how Franz does in his first playoffs, the first for the Magic in years.

They are a very good defensive team but have limitations on offense.

One problem is that Franz has been 19% from beyond the arc since the all-star break.

Can he still have impact even if he can't make shots? He's good at getting to the hole, using his length.

He doesn't have the athleticism of Kuminga. Speaking of which, Zion showed a possible path for Kuminga, which was to attack AD, jumping into him and finishing repeatedly in their play-in games.

Obviously Zion is much more dynamic, with his mass and explosiveness. Kuminga doesn't have the mass to go downhill with that kind of force. Zion also can use some finesse, not always go into or through the defender because he can finish with either hand, both sides of the basket.

But in the Lakers game, he was going directly at AD and at the top of his jump, instead of trying to dunk he'd flip the ball in, using his body to shield the ball from the rim protector.

Kuminga obviously studies the moves of other players, like when he would do a low dribble crossover across the defender to get a good shot or draw the foul.

Even the best rim protectors can't be as effective if an athletic wing has a head start going downhill. The only thing they do is to try to get the ball as the driver is on a downward motion to dunk the ball and the shot-blocker and try to get the ball with before the offensive player stuffs it through the rim.

In that case, Zion didn't give AD a chance to get to the ball on a dunk attempt, instead just flipped it in so that AD couldn't block it, just goal tend because the ball would be coming down.

[Onus]

It will be interesting to see how Franz does in his first playoffs, the first for the Magic in years.

They are a very good defensive team but have limitations on offense.

One problem is that Franz has been 19% from beyond the arc since the all-star break.

Can he still have impact even if he can't make shots? He's good at getting to the hole, using his length.

He doesn't have the athleticism of Kuminga. Speaking of which, Zion showed a possible path for Kuminga, which was to attack AD, jumping into him and finishing repeatedly in their play-in games.

Obviously Zion is much more dynamic, with his mass and explosiveness. Kuminga doesn't have the mass to go downhill with that kind of force. Zion also can use some finesse, not always go into or through the defender because he can finish with either hand, both sides of the basket.

But in the Lakers game, he was going directly at AD and at the top of his jump, instead of trying to dunk he'd flip the ball in, using his body to shield the ball from the rim protector.

Kuminga obviously studies the moves of other players, like when he would do a low dribble crossover across the defender to get a good shot or draw the foul.

Even the best rim protectors can't be as effective if an athletic wing has a head start going downhill. The only thing they do is to try to get the ball as the driver is on a downward motion to dunk the ball and the shot-blocker and try to get the ball with before the offensive player stuffs it through the rim.

In that case, Zion didn't give AD a chance to get to the ball on a dunk attempt, instead just flipped it in so that AD couldn't block it, just goal tend because the ball would be coming down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/s/K2gpbr9k3O

[RUN-TJM]

It will be interesting to see how Franz does in his first playoffs, the first for the Magic in years.

They are a very good defensive team but have limitations on offense.

One problem is that Franz has been 19% from beyond the arc since the all-star break.

Can he still have impact even if he can't make shots? He's good at getting to the hole, using his length.

He doesn't have the athleticism of Kuminga. Speaking of which, Zion showed a possible path for Kuminga, which was to attack AD, jumping into him and finishing repeatedly in their play-in games.

Obviously Zion is much more dynamic, with his mass and explosiveness. Kuminga doesn't have the mass to go downhill with that kind of force. Zion also can use some finesse, not always go into or through the defender because he can finish with either hand, both sides of the basket.

But in the Lakers game, he was going directly at AD and at the top of his jump, instead of trying to dunk he'd flip the ball in, using his body to shield the ball from the rim protector.

Kuminga obviously studies the moves of other players, like when he would do a low dribble crossover across the defender to get a good shot or draw the foul.

Even the best rim protectors can't be as effective if an athletic wing has a head start going downhill. The only thing they do is to try to get the ball as the driver is on a downward motion to dunk the ball and the shot-blocker and try to get the ball with before the offensive player stuffs it through the rim.

In that case, Zion didn't give AD a chance to get to the ball on a dunk attempt, instead just flipped it in so that AD couldn't block it, just goal tend because the ball would be coming down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/s/K2gpbr9k3O

That is an interesting post on Reddit.

“Here are some graphs to show Wagner’s growth”
“Here is a theory as to where he will end up measured against players in completely different situations”
“Here is a theory on why Banchero sucks which only applies to him and not the players Wagner is being compared with”

The main thing I got from reading that is just how freaking scary Wemby is as a prospect.

[HiRez]

If the Warriors are going to make a big move this summer, I don't see how they do it without JK being shipped out. He is the biggest trade piece they have right now. Wiggins, Looney, GP2 aren't going to bring back much, probably neither are Moody, Podz, or TJD (and I'd want to keep them all anyway).

I love that JK took some big steps this year, but he's still not the reliable #2 scorer and defender they need him to be and time is running out on the Steph window. By improving so much he has ironically increased the chances they'll trade him.

I think probably Wiggins is gone, and maybe JK as well. It's tempting to just see what happens with him next year, but I don't think they have that luxury anymore. They need one or two huge moves to transform a team that—even with good health—couldn't even make the playoffs into a contender again. And Kuminga is going to be the centerpiece of any big deal.

[B-King]

JK has an explosiveness that no other Warrior has. Unless it is for star player that us makes the Dubs really relevant, I don't see how you can move him this off season. He is the foundation piece for a post Curry Warrior team. TJD and Podz have had a nice rookie campaign, but they are complimentary players for now.

[CDM_Stats]

JK has an explosiveness that no other Warrior has. Unless it is for star player that us makes the Dubs really relevant, I don't see how you can move him this off season. He is the foundation piece for a post Curry Warrior team. TJD and Podz have had a nice rookie campaign, but they are complimentary players for now.

When there aren't 1-2 shooting *stars* who are creating lanes for him, all that athleticism is doing nothing

He's like an elite rim-running forward, but if he needs others to create that for him, can't create for others (although he does have good vision), and isn't a + defender.. that's not a foundational piece. That's a treadmill piece. He should be dealt to a team trying to win now, because the things he'd need to develop to actually be a foundational piece are really, really hard to develop. The lack of a shot, the lack of handles, and the lack of defensive IQ are some major hurdles that usually don't iron themselves out over time. And certainly not at the price he may command for his per game numbers