2024 JK Thread

[vvoland]

Ok, I’m gonna try to be patient.

The absolute change in the shooting percentage would be expressed as a “number of percentage points” I.e. “Klay’s shooting percentage declined by 3 percentage points”

Describing the relative change is equally valid but would be described as a % change. I.e. Klay’s shooting percentage changed by ‘seven point five percent’”

Both are valid ways of describing two different concepts with different uses and both conventions have places in math, statistics and yes even in finance.

If you really think there is a different convention that prohibits describing relative value change in finance then I need to be done discussing this with you.

Mmkay?

You really don't see how you're contradicting yourself there? You're literally saying, "klay's shooting percentage dropped by 3%" and in the next line you're saying "klay's shooting percentage dropped by 7.5%" Unless you think that "3 percentage points" is not the same as 3%.

Can you really imagine telling a company their 5% drop in margins is actually a 10% decrease? Let me give you a different example than a company's margin, although I really don't see how that one isn't illustrative enough.

Let's saying over his career, in any given season, Klay attempts 1000 3pt shots (just to make the math easier). He makes, in any given season, 410 of those attempts. That would be 41%.
This season, for the sake of this example, Klay also attempts 1000 3's, like he usually does. This year, however, he makes 380 of them, for 38%.

What is the absolute change? it's 30 3pt field goals made. What is the relative change? it's 30 3FGM relative to his 1000 attempts, or 30/1000 or, 0.03. Or, if you want to put that in percent, 3%.

That is because a percentage is already a relative measure. How many did he make RELATIVE to the number of attempts.

Last example. You can say, Klay's FGM made dropped from 7.3 (career) to 6.2 (this year). That would be an absolute decline of 1.1 FGM. It would be a relative decline of 1.1/7.3 = 15%.

What you're trying to do is make his decline look worse than it is. I'm just trying to make sure we follow the laws of mathematics.

[Sleepy51]

TLDNR

Tell you what. you do you. I'll ignore. Peace.

[michaelm]

Why is the media talking about Kuminga vs Wiggins now? It's hilarious. If Wiggins is actually playing like a real wing again, meaning he can shoot, then there is no issue whatsoever. Then you start JK, Wiggins and Dray and bring TJD off the bench. It's only when Wiggins is playing like **** that you don't want him on the court. When he's playing like this the only concern is that he turtles himself again.

If it were me I'd bring JK and Klay off the bench and start Steph/Moody/Wiggins/Draymond/TJD. But that's just me.

Absolutely. Why would anyone want to mess with what Wiggins has been doing when he is playing as he is currently, close to the level he was when he was the second best player on a title winning team, if not the second most important player on said team. As you say the problem is that he doesn’t always play like this, although injuries and personal circumstances may have contributed to his down times in the last 2 seasons, he was playing great at the start of last season before his issues, and looked quite underdone at the start of this season. He is wiry strong at his best, but has trouble keeping weight on and it doesn’t take much for him to lose condition.

[vvoland]

If you give your employer a sustained -7.5% decline in a revenue or any critical productivity metric for your job they downsize you in a heartbeat.

It's a meaningful drop.

If you consistently show the best metrics in your role for years (41%+ on high volume) and then you have a year where you're just top 10 in your role (38% on even higher volume) and your employer fires you, that's pretty short-sighted employer. Essentially, you're saying a sales rep that used to be the best in the nation is now only a top 10 salesperson gets fired in a heartbeat. That's not how high hiring/firing decisions are made, at least not at successful companies.

By the way, you keep referring to the drop as 7.5%. I assume because you're taking the 3% decline as a % of his career 3pt %? That's not how that works. I've worked in finance for 15 years and never seen that. You never take a % on a % to get to a %. If margins go from 50% to 45%, it's not a 10% decline, it's 5%.

Klay's decline is 3%.

True about the numbers of course.

No one is saying Klay can’t shoot though, although some take issue with his shot selection and when he takes shots, the problems are with his defense, rebounding, boxing out, etc, and the way his deficiencies detract from the team’s identity defensively which was a crucial part of the glory years to which he was and always will have been a great contributor.


Before he sustained that ACL injury he was a great player, one of the greatest GSW players ever. The questions now are his value as a player currently, and whether you play him and pay him based on the memory of what he once was rather than what he can do now. Both he and Kerr seem unable or unwilling to adjust to current reality. Iirc he defended reasonably in the last winning finals series and if he can return to that level for a play-off series well and good, play him, but the team has to get to such a play-off series first.

Thank you, I'm glad someone else on this board knows how math works.

On to your question. I have not denied Klay is not the same player he was pre-injury, not once. I take issue with the fact that he's 'not an nba player' (not a sleepy quote) or "just chuck and miss your shots anyway" (that is a sleepy quote, and the reason for my back and forth with him). those are statements not grounded in reality.

For your question, I would pay and play him based on what he's done this season and based on what the team can reasonably expect to replace him with. For instance, grayson allen is going to get a biiiig contract this offseason. Some are saying over 20m/season. Last year, he was a throw-in in their trade. I'd pay Klay the same way I'd pay another top 10 3pt shooter in the NBA. I think the going rate would be something like 18-22m per year. Remember, the mid-level is going to be around 14 or 15M.

[vvoland]

TLDNR

Tell you what. you do you. I'll ignore. Peace.

TLDR because math is hard? Ok, I'll do me. You may want to go back and skim it, though, just so you don't have this confidence about something you're so wrong about. Or ask some people who work with numbers.

[DonaldSanders]

Twist words how you want, Klay is a 56.6% TS "offense" player (below league average) at the bottom of our On/Off and On-Court ratings.

[RUN-TJM]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

I agree with you in concept but the fact remains on the offensive side of the ball, our motion offense has stalled a lot this season. In the playoffs I expect Curry will see a mixture of blitzes, zones and man handling off the ball. We’ll need some variation. That’s where having Kuminga should help. As you said, it’s not like Curry can swing the ball to an open GP2, Green, Loon, TJD, Podz, JK and even Wiggs & Moody to some extent, and expect a great result from 3.

I think by the end of our post season run, however short that may be, Kuminga will have established himself as our 2nd best scorer and third best offensive player behind Green and Curry.

[CDM_Stats]

Twist words how you want, Klay is a 56.6% TS "offense" player (below league average) at the bottom of our On/Off and On-Court ratings.

The best way to use him is like any other microwave scorer. You give him a chance, and if he gets hot, you ride it. And if he starts overstepping, the coach needs to step in, because he's not going to give you playmaking, rebounding, defense, or really anything unless his shot is also going in

In one way, that makes him an analytics' guys' dream. He literally tells you when he's going to be great and when he's going to suck. Just have to listen.. Kerr seems more interested in replaying his 2014-2018 collection of hits instead

As I said way early into the season, everything this year depends on how Kerr handles Klay. And here we are, back to starting one of the most inconsistent players in the league, a huge drain on our defense (the one thing that we still can do at a top level).. how far a team goes in the playoffs usually depends on what their floor is. And Klay's floor is as low as anyone on the teams'. Guys like Moody, GP2, and even TJD have pretty solid floors (though not much upside). JK is a bit of an extreme example but even his floor is higher than Klay's at this stage, because at 21 years old and with no college to corral him, he still learned not to just keep forcing shots if its not your night

[CDM_Stats]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

I agree with you in concept but the fact remains on the offensive side of the ball, our motion offense has stalled a lot this season. In the playoffs I expect Curry will see a mixture of blitzes, zones and man handling off the ball. We’ll need some variation. That’s where having Kuminga should help. As you said, it’s not like Curry can swing the ball to an open GP2, Green, Loon, TJD, Podz, JK and even Wiggs & Moody to some extent, and expect a great result from 3.

I think by the end of our post season run, however short that may be, Kuminga will have established himself as our 2nd best scorer and third best offensive player behind Green and Curry.

I agree about the motion offense and this is why I was not for trading Kuminga at the deadline, provided that we saw ourselves as legitimate contenders. Because he scratches an itch the team has

I dont know about keeping him long-term - still believe selling high is by far the best idea here - but he provides an option that no other player on the team can provide at that level. Guys like GP2,TJD and Wiggins can do it sparingly here and there in the dunker spots, but JK's straight-line speed is **** insane and the Warriors need that as a complement to guys like CP3 and Klay, who are older, slower and dependent on their old-man games

But really any offense we run is going to be middling to above average at best, so the focus should be getting the best, most sustainable defense out there, and trying to manufacture offense with that lot. Which means less CP3/Klay and more of the youth. That said, when push comes to shove, we know exactly which way Kerr is going to go with it, and it sucks

[Crazy-Canuck]

Klay can shoot and not much else. Klay can't do anything on the defensive end. The question is does his offense still carry enough weight to offset his defense. It does when he's hot and doesnt when he's not. The problems compound because Kerr will have him play big and important minutes regardless of how he's playing.

Jk vs wiggs. I don't think that's the right question. They can play together but kerr needs to adjust for wiggins passivity. We are already seeing it with Wiggins being the secondary ball handler and facilitating early offense.

Jk vs tjd vs klay is the question. Our defense is working right now. The rotations are working right now. Tjd allows dray to roam. Tjd allows wiggins to be more aggressive at poa. Tjd allows dray and wiggins to quick blitz doubles. Those 3 are why our defense has looked great (not specifically what tjd does, but what he allows our 2 best defenders to do) klay and jk are the weak links on defense who shouldn't share the floor unless behind and need offense.

Someone mentioned steph, wiggs, jk, dray, and tjd. That could work now that wiggins has regained his 3 ball (now the volume is on the uptick) and he's a better secondary ball handler than jk or klay.

Regardless of what kerr does, he needs to keep the defense intact. That's our ticket to winning the play in.

[Crazy-Canuck]

I think jk was probable yesterday, but is questionable now. Yesterday's report was that he's what practicing abd is ready to play against the rockets.

[Onus]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

He's definitely passing more out of the post and is not a black hole in isolation. He's a bit robotic, throwing blind passes to the strong side corner, at times for TOs but I think he's getting less tunnel-visioned as he gets more touches. I'm not sure what his eFG is on Iso's or post ups, but considering his FG% and low 3pt %, I'd imagine it's pretty good. He's terrific getting to the line and has been shooting FTs at ~80% for a since Jan.

I"m curious what you meant by "he's not really good at either"

Yes he can pass out of a post up and isolation. The issue with that is everyone else is static and pretty much uninvolved. It's just an easier action to defend. He has improved his ft shooting which is great. It's a good change up to get to the line.

His PPP on those shot attempts isn't really leading to efficient offense.

[Onus]

Pretty much agree with this, however I like Kuminga a lot more when he's moving without the ball, hunting for seams to get going downhill before he gets the ball, than hanging out on the corner perimeter, or being stationary and pounding the rock, unless maybe he's matched up on a clearly smaller and less athletic player. To his credit, he has cut down on the Maggete-like dribbling this year and is getting more back cuts for dunks. But really Kuminga's best use is in transition where he's been close to unstoppable this year, but that requires the whole team to crank it up defensively.

Transition is where he really shines. Too bad those opportunities tend to shrink in the playoffs.

They do a bit, but typically the best defensive teams in the playoffs are also the slower paced ones. Being a fast-paced, but defensive-oriented team would be different than the traditional thought, just like a jumpshooting team winning from 10 years ago

I'm sure we'll try. I mean Giannis is still able to get some transition opportunities in the playoffs. They just tend to shrink because teams are more cognizant of getting back, but if we can force turnovers like we've been doing it should help.

[Onus]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

I agree with you in concept but the fact remains on the offensive side of the ball, our motion offense has stalled a lot this season. In the playoffs I expect Curry will see a mixture of blitzes, zones and man handling off the ball. We’ll need some variation. That’s where having Kuminga should help. As you said, it’s not like Curry can swing the ball to an open GP2, Green, Loon, TJD, Podz, JK and even Wiggs & Moody to some extent, and expect a great result from 3.

I think by the end of our post season run, however short that may be, Kuminga will have established himself as our 2nd best scorer and third best offensive player behind Green and Curry.

I think Wiggins is making a case that running offense through him is actually better than running offense through JK. But they run similar actions for the both of them.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Read on Twitter

Tjd getting alot of love. Apparently dray loves having another big with him because it allows him to roam on defense and see the actions better. I dont see how you can break up wiggs, dray, and tjd right now.

[Onus]

Read on Twitter

Tjd getting alot of love. Apparently dray loves having another big with him because it allows him to roam on defense and see the actions better. I dont see how you can break up wiggs, dray, and tjd right now.

That would be something. He should, but then that probably takes Moody completely out of the rotation.

[Crazy-Canuck]

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

I agree with you in concept but the fact remains on the offensive side of the ball, our motion offense has stalled a lot this season. In the playoffs I expect Curry will see a mixture of blitzes, zones and man handling off the ball. We’ll need some variation. That’s where having Kuminga should help. As you said, it’s not like Curry can swing the ball to an open GP2, Green, Loon, TJD, Podz, JK and even Wiggs & Moody to some extent, and expect a great result from 3.

I think by the end of our post season run, however short that may be, Kuminga will have established himself as our 2nd best scorer and third best offensive player behind Green and Curry.

I think Wiggins is making a case that running offense through him is actually better than running offense through JK. But they run similar actions for the both of them.

The one guy who loves wiggins running the offense is Moody. Wiggins must have assisted on half of moodys 3 pt shots the last 4 games.

They run some similar things, but also alot that's not the same.

The early offense with wiggins with the ball screen or inverted screen creates looks for himself and others, especially on kick outs.. Jk does the same action, but it's to play to his strength of getting to the rim or get fouled. It's the secondary action that differentiates them. Jk is more comfortable in that dunkers spot because hes probably our best finisher. Wiggins is better at screens, pin downs, moving off ball and spacing the floor.

But you also don't want to run too much of the offense through either guy.

[Onus]

I agree with you in concept but the fact remains on the offensive side of the ball, our motion offense has stalled a lot this season. In the playoffs I expect Curry will see a mixture of blitzes, zones and man handling off the ball. We’ll need some variation. That’s where having Kuminga should help. As you said, it’s not like Curry can swing the ball to an open GP2, Green, Loon, TJD, Podz, JK and even Wiggs & Moody to some extent, and expect a great result from 3.

I think by the end of our post season run, however short that may be, Kuminga will have established himself as our 2nd best scorer and third best offensive player behind Green and Curry.

I think Wiggins is making a case that running offense through him is actually better than running offense through JK. But they run similar actions for the both of them.

The one guy who loves wiggins running the offense is Moody. Wiggins must have assisted on half of moodys 3 pt shots the last 4 games.

They run some similar things, but also alot that's not the same.

The early offense with wiggins with the ball screen or inverted screen creates looks for himself and others, especially on kick outs.. Jk does the same action, but it's to play to his strength of getting to the rim or get fouled. It's the secondary action that differentiates them. Jk is more comfortable in that dunkers spot because hes probably our best finisher. Wiggins is better at screens, pin downs, moving off ball and spacing the floor.

But you also don't want to run too much of the offense through either guy.

Yea Wiggins has more to his game, but JK is still young. JK is a better finisher.

[vvoland]

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

He's definitely passing more out of the post and is not a black hole in isolation. He's a bit robotic, throwing blind passes to the strong side corner, at times for TOs but I think he's getting less tunnel-visioned as he gets more touches. I'm not sure what his eFG is on Iso's or post ups, but considering his FG% and low 3pt %, I'd imagine it's pretty good. He's terrific getting to the line and has been shooting FTs at ~80% for a since Jan.

I"m curious what you meant by "he's not really good at either"

Yes he can pass out of a post up and isolation. The issue with that is everyone else is static and pretty much uninvolved. It's just an easier action to defend. He has improved his ft shooting which is great. It's a good change up to get to the line.

His PPP on those shot attempts isn't really leading to efficient offense.

Checking NBA.com he's around 0.94 ppp on post ups. Not great, I agree. I wish I could parse it by time frame and check what the numbers are post Jan 15. Wiggins is 0.96 but I wonder what his splits are pre and post Jan 15 (when dray came back).

[RUN-TJM]

I think it’s fair to say that both Wiggins and Kuminga’s season stats are not reflective of their current level of play. Same with Moody.

Whether the coaching staff can utilise the strength of these 3 is the real question….