2024 JK Thread

[vvoland]

Why is the media talking about Kuminga vs Wiggins now? It's hilarious. If Wiggins is actually playing like a real wing again, meaning he can shoot, then there is no issue whatsoever. Then you start JK, Wiggins and Dray and bring TJD off the bench. It's only when Wiggins is playing like **** that you don't want him on the court. When he's playing like this the only concern is that he turtles himself again.

If it were me I'd bring JK and Klay off the bench and start Steph/Moody/Wiggins/Draymond/TJD. But that's just me.

Because the media is lazy, too lazy to look for legitimate story lines. For example. In my opionion, the CP3 contract + picks + some of the podz/moody/JK/TJD young core might be the best trade package on the market (due to the future picks AND the immediate expiration of CP3'S entire 30 mil).

0 conversation about what they could do with this package. Or even if they can package players in a trade this summer due to the new cap rules. Because, you know, that would take some effort and the media (especially bay area sports media) just isn't going to try.

[Sleepy51]

If Wiggins can suddenly shoot again you bench Klay. He has been and remains the biggest negative player on the team and gravity is useless if you just chuck and miss your shots anyway.

[vvoland]

If Wiggins can suddenly shoot again you bench Klay. He has been and remains the biggest negative player on the team and gravity is useless if you just chuck and miss your shots anyway.

Weird, the Klay I'm seeing this season is shooting 38% on 3's and is top 5 in the league in made 3s. Is the difference between 2nd best shooter in the NBA and 'chuck and miss' jsut 2% from 3?

Plenty to criticize Klay over this season. His shooting, though not at the same level as he's been prior, doesn't seem to me to be the right target.

[TB]

Why is the media talking about Kuminga vs Wiggins now? It's hilarious. If Wiggins is actually playing like a real wing again, meaning he can shoot, then there is no issue whatsoever. Then you start JK, Wiggins and Dray and bring TJD off the bench. It's only when Wiggins is playing like **** that you don't want him on the court. When he's playing like this the only concern is that he turtles himself again.

If it were me I'd bring JK and Klay off the bench and start Steph/Moody/Wiggins/Draymond/TJD. But that's just me.

I agree with that lineup. And before TJD proved himself, I wanted that same lineup with Loon at center.

Fun (not actually fun at all) fact:

The lineup with TJD has played 2 possessions (less than a minute) this year.

The lineup with Loon has played:
15 minutes Moody rookie year (+16 rating)
6 minutes last year (+12 rating)
37 minutes this year (+4 rating)

And its not some random lineup... literally our 3 best players, our top center, and a lotto pick who is now in year 3. Yet, almost never used even with good small sample results.

[RUN-TJM]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

[Onus]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

[HiRez]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

Pretty much agree with this, however I like Kuminga a lot more when he's moving without the ball, hunting for seams to get going downhill before he gets the ball, than hanging out on the corner perimeter, or being stationary and pounding the rock, unless maybe he's matched up on a clearly smaller and less athletic player. To his credit, he has cut down on the Maggete-like dribbling this year and is getting more back cuts for dunks. But really Kuminga's best use is in transition where he's been close to unstoppable this year, but that requires the whole team to crank it up defensively.

[Onus]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

Pretty much agree with this, however I like Kuminga a lot more when he's moving without the ball, hunting for seams to get going downhill before he gets the ball, than hanging out on the corner perimeter, or being stationary and pounding the rock, unless maybe he's matched up on a clearly smaller and less athletic player. To his credit, he has cut down on the Maggete-like dribbling this year and is getting more back cuts for dunks. But really Kuminga's best use is in transition where he's been close to unstoppable this year, but that requires the whole team to crank it up defensively.

Transition is where he really shines. Too bad those opportunities tend to shrink in the playoffs.

[Sleepy51]

If Wiggins can suddenly shoot again you bench Klay. He has been and remains the biggest negative player on the team and gravity is useless if you just chuck and miss your shots anyway.

Weird, the Klay I'm seeing this season is shooting 38% on 3's and is top 5 in the league in made 3s. Is the difference between 2nd best shooter in the NBA and 'chuck and miss' jsut 2% from 3?

Plenty to criticize Klay over this season. His shooting, though not at the same level as he's been prior, doesn't seem to me to be the right target.

Many of his offensive Metrics are bottoming out the last 2 1/2 years for his career. Offensive Win Shares, Offense Plus/Minus, FG% by distance, and in particular the "value added" stats for his shot attempts above league average are CRATERING.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompkl01.html

The raw shooting percentage does not imply or assess the quality of the shots he's taking/making/missing or the context of how those shots impact the offense around him. Hell, bad shots even affect your defense in terms of giving opponents transition opportunities based on floor balance when you shoot and how you miss.

Klay is also no longer exhibiting the same kind of gravitational impact on the 5 on 5 game. He's easier to cover, easier to cover solo, easier to cover when switched and fewer of his cuts and off ball actions are getting him or anyone else free. He's not a particularly effective offensive player anymore even though raw boxscore shooting % might give a different impression.

[DonaldSanders]

Weird, the Klay I'm seeing this season is shooting 38% on 3's and is top 5 in the league in made 3s. Is the difference between 2nd best shooter in the NBA and 'chuck and miss' jsut 2% from 3?

Plenty to criticize Klay over this season. His shooting, though not at the same level as he's been prior, doesn't seem to me to be the right target.

Well, there is more to shooting than just making 3s. Klay struggles from 2 and doesn't get to the line much. An "offense" player who is a bad defender should not shoot below league average TS%.

Klay's TS% is 56.6, 9th on the team among players who played 200+ minutes (filters out Pat Spencer and Gui who are near the top, otherwise he is 11th). Draymond, Moses Moody, GPII all have better TS%s. Sure, Klay is a threat left wide open for 3. But you also have to account for the other guys we play on cuts to the basket, which Klay doesn't excel at. Then you account for defense, and you have a player who has been struggling.

Among Warrior players who have played 10 or more minutes this season, Klay has the worst on-court and on/off (filters out Garuba who has played 8 minutes). At this point in the season that statistically means something. When JK returns, Klay should return to the bench.

[Sleepy51]

Hes shooting 38% from 3 down from a career average of 41% (-7.5% drop) which is actually a pretty meaningful drop, but a MUCH larger % of his shots have been from distance this year at 61% vs a career average of 47%. He really is shooting meaningfully worse.

[vvoland]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

It's the fact that he's not really good at either and it doesn't involve anyone else which makes those scoring options not ideal. The fact we have to run those options for him limits our offense and it's either him scoring and not the random type of scoring that the motion offense offers. Those are very static plays and you need shooting around him for them to be somewhat effective, which we sorely lack.

He's definitely passing more out of the post and is not a black hole in isolation. He's a bit robotic, throwing blind passes to the strong side corner, at times for TOs but I think he's getting less tunnel-visioned as he gets more touches. I'm not sure what his eFG is on Iso's or post ups, but considering his FG% and low 3pt %, I'd imagine it's pretty good. He's terrific getting to the line and has been shooting FTs at ~80% for a since Jan.

I"m curious what you meant by "he's not really good at either"

[CDM_Stats]

I find it interesting that people point out that Kuminga needs post ups or isolation plays like it’s a bad thing.

We have no legitimate 2nd banana now that Klay is no longer Klay. Wiggins has proven he is a 3rd option who “picks his own spots”. The rest of the roster is a mix of NQR’s and role players who can’t shoot.

In the playoffs we will need someone to get to the line, stop a scoring drought by us which we have seen plenty of this season and allow our defence to get set after a free throw.

It’s up to the coaches to use his strengths in this regard, not for Kuminga to become something he is not.

Pretty much agree with this, however I like Kuminga a lot more when he's moving without the ball, hunting for seams to get going downhill before he gets the ball, than hanging out on the corner perimeter, or being stationary and pounding the rock, unless maybe he's matched up on a clearly smaller and less athletic player. To his credit, he has cut down on the Maggete-like dribbling this year and is getting more back cuts for dunks. But really Kuminga's best use is in transition where he's been close to unstoppable this year, but that requires the whole team to crank it up defensively.

Transition is where he really shines. Too bad those opportunities tend to shrink in the playoffs.

They do a bit, but typically the best defensive teams in the playoffs are also the slower paced ones. Being a fast-paced, but defensive-oriented team would be different than the traditional thought, just like a jumpshooting team winning from 10 years ago

[vvoland]

Hes shooting 38% from 3 down from a career average of 41% (-7.5% drop) which is actually a pretty meaningful drop, but a MUCH larger % of his shots have been from distance this year at 61% vs a career average of 47%. He really is shooting meaningfully worse.

41% to 38% is not that huge a drop. It's certainly not 'chuck and miss' territory. At his volume, there aren't a ton of players shooting a better % this year.

To be clear, I agree he's no longer the offensive player he once was, just not because he can no longer shoot. He's shooting way more threes, as you illustrated, and I think it's by design. They're also harder 3's, because he's older? Yes. It's also because the only other person defended beyond the 3pt line is Curry and spacing becomes a bigger issues, especially when Klay is the only shooter on the court. Wedon't have the 3pt shooters elsewhere on the roster like we had in prior years (JP and DD last year; Otto, JP, Beli the year prior) and with our offensive identity, I think the coaches are drawing up more 3s for Klay.

His gravity is one of the main reason TJD has had the success at the rim and why that two man game has been surprisingly effective. The lanes JK sees also expand with Klay and Curry on the court vs just w/ curry but I'm curious if the advanced numbers support that.

[Sleepy51]

If you give your employer a sustained -7.5% decline in a revenue or any critical productivity metric for your job they downsize you in a heartbeat.

It's a meaningful drop.

[vvoland]

If you give your employer a sustained -7.5% decline in a revenue or any critical productivity metric for your job they downsize you in a heartbeat.

It's a meaningful drop.

If you consistently show the best metrics in your role for years (41%+ on high volume) and then you have a year where you're just top 10 in your role (38% on even higher volume) and your employer fires you, that's pretty short-sighted employer. Essentially, you're saying a sales rep that used to be the best in the nation is now only a top 10 salesperson gets fired in a heartbeat. That's not how high hiring/firing decisions are made, at least not at successful companies.

By the way, you keep referring to the drop as 7.5%. I assume because you're taking the 3% decline as a % of his career 3pt %? That's not how that works. I've worked in finance for 15 years and never seen that. You never take a % on a % to get to a %. If margins go from 50% to 45%, it's not a 10% decline, it's 5%.

Klay's decline is 3%.

[Sleepy51]

^lol

The percentage is not the percentage…ok

[vvoland]

^lol

The percentage is not the percentage…ok

Ask anyone that works with numbers. Look at the example I gave you: if a company's margin went from 50% to 45% and you say it dropped by 10%, you'd be fired for financial illiteracy.

[Sleepy51]

Ok, I’m gonna try to be patient.

The absolute change in the shooting percentage would be expressed as a “number of percentage points” I.e. “Klay’s shooting percentage declined by 3 percentage points”

Describing the relative change is equally valid but would be described as a % change. I.e. Klay’s shooting percentage changed by ‘seven point five percent’”

Both are valid ways of describing two different concepts with different uses and both conventions have places in math, statistics and yes even in finance.

If you really think there is a different convention that prohibits describing relative value change in finance then I need to be done discussing this with you.

Mmkay?

[michaelm]

If you give your employer a sustained -7.5% decline in a revenue or any critical productivity metric for your job they downsize you in a heartbeat.

It's a meaningful drop.

If you consistently show the best metrics in your role for years (41%+ on high volume) and then you have a year where you're just top 10 in your role (38% on even higher volume) and your employer fires you, that's pretty short-sighted employer. Essentially, you're saying a sales rep that used to be the best in the nation is now only a top 10 salesperson gets fired in a heartbeat. That's not how high hiring/firing decisions are made, at least not at successful companies.

By the way, you keep referring to the drop as 7.5%. I assume because you're taking the 3% decline as a % of his career 3pt %? That's not how that works. I've worked in finance for 15 years and never seen that. You never take a % on a % to get to a %. If margins go from 50% to 45%, it's not a 10% decline, it's 5%.

Klay's decline is 3%.

True about the numbers of course.

No one is saying Klay can’t shoot though, although some take issue with his shot selection and when he takes shots, the problems are with his defense, rebounding, boxing out, etc, and the way his deficiencies detract from the team’s identity defensively which was a crucial part of the glory years to which he was and always will have been a great contributor.


Before he sustained that ACL injury he was a great player, one of the greatest GSW players ever. The questions now are his value as a player currently, and whether you play him and pay him based on the memory of what he once was rather than what he can do now. Both he and Kerr seem unable or unwilling to adjust to current reality. Iirc he defended reasonably in the last winning finals series and if he can return to that level for a play-off series well and good, play him, but the team has to get to such a play-off series first.