2024 JK Thread

[CDM_Stats]

It will be interesting to see how Franz does in his first playoffs, the first for the Magic in years.

They are a very good defensive team but have limitations on offense.

One problem is that Franz has been 19% from beyond the arc since the all-star break.

Can he still have impact even if he can't make shots? He's good at getting to the hole, using his length.

He doesn't have the athleticism of Kuminga. Speaking of which, Zion showed a possible path for Kuminga, which was to attack AD, jumping into him and finishing repeatedly in their play-in games.

Obviously Zion is much more dynamic, with his mass and explosiveness. Kuminga doesn't have the mass to go downhill with that kind of force. Zion also can use some finesse, not always go into or through the defender because he can finish with either hand, both sides of the basket.

But in the Lakers game, he was going directly at AD and at the top of his jump, instead of trying to dunk he'd flip the ball in, using his body to shield the ball from the rim protector.

Kuminga obviously studies the moves of other players, like when he would do a low dribble crossover across the defender to get a good shot or draw the foul.

Even the best rim protectors can't be as effective if an athletic wing has a head start going downhill. The only thing they do is to try to get the ball as the driver is on a downward motion to dunk the ball and the shot-blocker and try to get the ball with before the offensive player stuffs it through the rim.

In that case, Zion didn't give AD a chance to get to the ball on a dunk attempt, instead just flipped it in so that AD couldn't block it, just goal tend because the ball would be coming down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/s/K2gpbr9k3O

That is an interesting post on Reddit.

“Here are some graphs to show Wagner’s growth”
“Here is a theory as to where he will end up measured against players in completely different situations”
“Here is a theory on why Banchero sucks which only applies to him and not the players Wagner is being compared with”

The main thing I got from reading that is just how freaking scary Wemby is as a prospect.

Yeah Wemby is really breaking a lot of analytical molds. There's no comp, there's no ceiling. He really could break the NBA

But that's an excellent dive into Wagner, read it earlier. Great, argument-driven stuff. The shooting has petered off, but the rest of his game is solid - very little weakness. If his shot returns to say, 35% from 3, he's got all-star potential, like actual #2-3 potential on a title team. What JK fans think of JK.. that's the reality of Wagner

And also very much agree with the assessment of Paolo. Volume scorer with low efficiency. Definitely some untapped upside, as he's better than those numbers indicate. Magic just werent very blessed with outside shooters, which really hurts Paolo. Makes it hilarious that Jett Howard is a mediocre shooter thus far and they also drafted complete non-shooter in Anthony Black.. but besides those 2 misfires, Magic have a very nice core. And despite the arguments to the contrary, someone like Klay would probably not help that much. They need a credible shooter who isn't so prone to being a giant negative

Buddy Hield would even be a better choice for them, IMO

[Onus]

https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/s/K2gpbr9k3O

That is an interesting post on Reddit.

“Here are some graphs to show Wagner’s growth”
“Here is a theory as to where he will end up measured against players in completely different situations”
“Here is a theory on why Banchero sucks which only applies to him and not the players Wagner is being compared with”

The main thing I got from reading that is just how freaking scary Wemby is as a prospect.

Yeah Wemby is really breaking a lot of analytical molds. There's no comp, there's no ceiling. He really could break the NBA

But that's an excellent dive into Wagner, read it earlier. Great, argument-driven stuff. The shooting has petered off, but the rest of his game is solid - very little weakness. If his shot returns to say, 35% from 3, he's got all-star potential, like actual #2-3 potential on a title team. What JK fans think of JK.. that's the reality of Wagner

And also very much agree with the assessment of Paolo. Volume scorer with low efficiency. Definitely some untapped upside, as he's better than those numbers indicate. Magic just werent very blessed with outside shooters, which really hurts Paolo. Makes it hilarious that Jett Howard is a mediocre shooter thus far and they also drafted complete non-shooter in Anthony Black.. but besides those 2 misfires, Magic have a very nice core. And despite the arguments to the contrary, someone like Klay would probably not help that much. They need a credible shooter who isn't so prone to being a giant negative

Buddy Hield would even be a better choice for them, IMO

Wagner is so much better than JK, it's only a discussion amongst Warriors fans. It doesn't even include defense which Wagner is miles ahead of JK. Also can you imagine if Wagner got straight isos with no help like JK gets constantly, Wagner would look so much better here.

Also Wemby is sprinting to the GOAT mantle. Seriously he's going to be the GOAT as long as he stays healthy. It's absolutely ridiculous what he did as a rookie. He's the reason why I don't really care about future picks he's going to dominate for years. JK is not the one that's going to be challenging Wemby and Luka moving forward.

[vvoland]

That is an interesting post on Reddit.

“Here are some graphs to show Wagner’s growth”
“Here is a theory as to where he will end up measured against players in completely different situations”
“Here is a theory on why Banchero sucks which only applies to him and not the players Wagner is being compared with”

The main thing I got from reading that is just how freaking scary Wemby is as a prospect.

Yeah Wemby is really breaking a lot of analytical molds. There's no comp, there's no ceiling. He really could break the NBA

But that's an excellent dive into Wagner, read it earlier. Great, argument-driven stuff. The shooting has petered off, but the rest of his game is solid - very little weakness. If his shot returns to say, 35% from 3, he's got all-star potential, like actual #2-3 potential on a title team. What JK fans think of JK.. that's the reality of Wagner

And also very much agree with the assessment of Paolo. Volume scorer with low efficiency. Definitely some untapped upside, as he's better than those numbers indicate. Magic just werent very blessed with outside shooters, which really hurts Paolo. Makes it hilarious that Jett Howard is a mediocre shooter thus far and they also drafted complete non-shooter in Anthony Black.. but besides those 2 misfires, Magic have a very nice core. And despite the arguments to the contrary, someone like Klay would probably not help that much. They need a credible shooter who isn't so prone to being a giant negative

Buddy Hield would even be a better choice for them, IMO

Wagner is so much better than JK, it's only a discussion amongst Warriors fans. It doesn't even include defense which Wagner is miles ahead of JK. Also can you imagine if Wagner got straight isos with no help like JK gets constantly, Wagner would look so much better here.

Also Wemby is sprinting to the GOAT mantle. Seriously he's going to be the GOAT as long as he stays healthy. It's absolutely ridiculous what he did as a rookie. He's the reason why I don't really care about future picks he's going to dominate for years. JK is not the one that's going to be challenging Wemby and Luka moving forward.

Wagner is better than JK now. That much is clear. Just like it was clear in 2010-11 that russell westbrook was much better than steph. One year later, it was almost impossible to imagine curry ever challenging russ as steph had missed most of the season with his ankles and Russ made his 2nd all nba team, even getting some DPOY votes. These things change, especially since we'
re discussing 21 and 22 year olds. Would wagner look better than he does in Orl if he was playing off of steph and Klay spreading the floor? Sure. Would JK look better if he spent 3 years getting all the minutes he could handle (wagner has played more than 2x the minutes JK has)? Also, sure.

[CDM_Stats]

Yeah Wemby is really breaking a lot of analytical molds. There's no comp, there's no ceiling. He really could break the NBA

But that's an excellent dive into Wagner, read it earlier. Great, argument-driven stuff. The shooting has petered off, but the rest of his game is solid - very little weakness. If his shot returns to say, 35% from 3, he's got all-star potential, like actual #2-3 potential on a title team. What JK fans think of JK.. that's the reality of Wagner

And also very much agree with the assessment of Paolo. Volume scorer with low efficiency. Definitely some untapped upside, as he's better than those numbers indicate. Magic just werent very blessed with outside shooters, which really hurts Paolo. Makes it hilarious that Jett Howard is a mediocre shooter thus far and they also drafted complete non-shooter in Anthony Black.. but besides those 2 misfires, Magic have a very nice core. And despite the arguments to the contrary, someone like Klay would probably not help that much. They need a credible shooter who isn't so prone to being a giant negative

Buddy Hield would even be a better choice for them, IMO

Wagner is so much better than JK, it's only a discussion amongst Warriors fans. It doesn't even include defense which Wagner is miles ahead of JK. Also can you imagine if Wagner got straight isos with no help like JK gets constantly, Wagner would look so much better here.

Also Wemby is sprinting to the GOAT mantle. Seriously he's going to be the GOAT as long as he stays healthy. It's absolutely ridiculous what he did as a rookie. He's the reason why I don't really care about future picks he's going to dominate for years. JK is not the one that's going to be challenging Wemby and Luka moving forward.

Wagner is better than JK now. That much is clear. Just like it was clear in 2010-11 that russell westbrook was much better than steph. One year later, it was almost impossible to imagine curry ever challenging russ as steph had missed most of the season with his ankles and Russ made his 2nd all nba team, even getting some DPOY votes. These things change, especially since we'
re discussing 21 and 22 year olds. Would wagner look better than he does in Orl if he was playing off of steph and Klay spreading the floor? Sure. Would JK look better if he spent 3 years getting all the minutes he could handle (wagner has played more than 2x the minutes JK has)? Also, sure.

JK had spacing issues with the Warriors.. the Magic are a notoriously bad shooting team. If JK played extended minutes on the Magic, he'd likely be a buy-low trade target for teams w/good spacing. I dont think PT is going to do much for his development. From a development standpoint, there's a real possibility that the only realistic improvement will be sharpening up his cutting and defense. Which is fine and could be a credible starter on a winner, but would still likely put him below a jack-of-all trades like Franz. And that's even assuming Franz plateaus as well - but he's more likely to develop (or recover, whatever) because he just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting, instead of the long game development of a credible 3pter or tight handles from JK

[Onus]

Yeah Wemby is really breaking a lot of analytical molds. There's no comp, there's no ceiling. He really could break the NBA

But that's an excellent dive into Wagner, read it earlier. Great, argument-driven stuff. The shooting has petered off, but the rest of his game is solid - very little weakness. If his shot returns to say, 35% from 3, he's got all-star potential, like actual #2-3 potential on a title team. What JK fans think of JK.. that's the reality of Wagner

And also very much agree with the assessment of Paolo. Volume scorer with low efficiency. Definitely some untapped upside, as he's better than those numbers indicate. Magic just werent very blessed with outside shooters, which really hurts Paolo. Makes it hilarious that Jett Howard is a mediocre shooter thus far and they also drafted complete non-shooter in Anthony Black.. but besides those 2 misfires, Magic have a very nice core. And despite the arguments to the contrary, someone like Klay would probably not help that much. They need a credible shooter who isn't so prone to being a giant negative

Buddy Hield would even be a better choice for them, IMO

Wagner is so much better than JK, it's only a discussion amongst Warriors fans. It doesn't even include defense which Wagner is miles ahead of JK. Also can you imagine if Wagner got straight isos with no help like JK gets constantly, Wagner would look so much better here.

Also Wemby is sprinting to the GOAT mantle. Seriously he's going to be the GOAT as long as he stays healthy. It's absolutely ridiculous what he did as a rookie. He's the reason why I don't really care about future picks he's going to dominate for years. JK is not the one that's going to be challenging Wemby and Luka moving forward.

Wagner is better than JK now. That much is clear. Just like it was clear in 2010-11 that russell westbrook was much better than steph. One year later, it was almost impossible to imagine curry ever challenging russ as steph had missed most of the season with his ankles and Russ made his 2nd all nba team, even getting some DPOY votes. These things change, especially since we'
re discussing 21 and 22 year olds. Would wagner look better than he does in Orl if he was playing off of steph and Klay spreading the floor? Sure. Would JK look better if he spent 3 years getting all the minutes he could handle (wagner has played more than 2x the minutes JK has)? Also, sure.

The one thing JK is good at driving to the hole and finishing, seems like Franz actually may be better at. While Franz has all the other skills that make him an impact player outside of just driving and finishing as well.

[vvoland]

Wagner is so much better than JK, it's only a discussion amongst Warriors fans. It doesn't even include defense which Wagner is miles ahead of JK. Also can you imagine if Wagner got straight isos with no help like JK gets constantly, Wagner would look so much better here.

Also Wemby is sprinting to the GOAT mantle. Seriously he's going to be the GOAT as long as he stays healthy. It's absolutely ridiculous what he did as a rookie. He's the reason why I don't really care about future picks he's going to dominate for years. JK is not the one that's going to be challenging Wemby and Luka moving forward.

Wagner is better than JK now. That much is clear. Just like it was clear in 2010-11 that russell westbrook was much better than steph. One year later, it was almost impossible to imagine curry ever challenging russ as steph had missed most of the season with his ankles and Russ made his 2nd all nba team, even getting some DPOY votes. These things change, especially since we'
re discussing 21 and 22 year olds. Would wagner look better than he does in Orl if he was playing off of steph and Klay spreading the floor? Sure. Would JK look better if he spent 3 years getting all the minutes he could handle (wagner has played more than 2x the minutes JK has)? Also, sure.

JK had spacing issues with the Warriors.. the Magic are a notoriously bad shooting team. If JK played extended minutes on the Magic, he'd likely be a buy-low trade target for teams w/good spacing. I dont think PT is going to do much for his development. From a development standpoint, there's a real possibility that the only realistic improvement will be sharpening up his cutting and defense. Which is fine and could be a credible starter on a winner, but would still likely put him below a jack-of-all trades like Franz. And that's even assuming Franz plateaus as well - but he's more likely to develop (or recover, whatever) because he just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting, instead of the long game development of a credible 3pter or tight handles from JK

I find it odd that you're capping JK's development at 'cutting and defense' while FW 'just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting."

JK shot 33.6, 37, and 32.1% from 3 in his first three years. FW is 35.4, 36.1, and 28.1% (and like sub 20% since All-Star). Not sure why FW would have to return to those numbers while JK has a 'long game development of a credible 3pter."

I'm not saying JK will be better than FW. I'm simply saying it's a bit early to make that call considering they're 21 and 22, respectively. While I haven't seen a ton of the magic, FW looks a lot like he did in college - a very capable starter that likely tops out as a secondary creator (or maybe tertiary?), 2nd or 3rd scoring option and a solid defender. I'm not sure where the development/growth for him was. Unless he becomes a go-to scorer (ala Lauri) or big wing creator (ala scottie barnes) I don't think he makes an all-star team. Neither of those outcomes are in the cards for Franz from what I've seen. He came into the league ready to start (on a bad team, at least) and I'm not sure what he has improved to the point where it's a standout skill. Part of that is him developing earlier, while in Michigan for 2 seasons. Part of it is that his ceiling might be naturally low due to size, quickness, athleticism being (near) impossible to improve. What's the ceiling there, is my question? It's certainly not Shawn Marion or Pippen. Is it Lauri with better defense? Is it siakam? I'm not sure I see his ceiling as being much higher than his current level of play. Even if he becomes a solid shooter, he is never going to be a no1 option and probably not even a no2 on a championship level team.

JK may never reach the level where FW is today. He started at a much lower point when he was drafted. Since then, however, he's improved dramatically in a number of areas. Most notably, his passing vision (if not always the actual passing), handle (still a WIP but dramatically better than in his rookie year), FT rate and %, rebounding (this year only) and mid range shooting. I would also say he's gotten much craftier around the basket, finishing with both hands, off the glass and through contact, not just over the defense with his athleticism. Most importantly, he's much better at reading the defense and making decisions in a very difficult offensive system.

JK is younger, has played half the minutes on a team trying to win a title, and has elite, like top 1%, athleticism. Shooting will be his key skill. If he never gets better than he is now, especially from distance and off the bounce, he'll plateau as an athletic 4 that rim runs and provides some secondary scoring options. If he develops his shot, both from distance and off the dribble, the ceiling goes up significantly. Considering he shot around 80% from the line after a terrible start to the season I have some faith he'll get there as a shooter.

[CDM_Stats]

I find it odd that you're capping JK's development at 'cutting and defense' while FW 'just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting."

JK shot 33.6, 37, and 32.1% from 3 in his first three years. FW is 35.4, 36.1, and 28.1% (and like sub 20% since All-Star). Not sure why FW would have to return to those numbers while JK has a 'long game development of a credible 3pter."

Do you think they take the same shots? Franz actually has people contest his 3s

JK may never reach the level where FW is today. He started at a much lower point when he was drafted. Since then, however, he's improved dramatically in a number of areas. Most notably, his passing vision (if not always the actual passing), handle (still a WIP but dramatically better than in his rookie year), FT rate and %, rebounding (this year only) and mid range shooting. I would also say he's gotten much craftier around the basket, finishing with both hands, off the glass and through contact, not just over the defense with his athleticism. Most importantly, he's much better at reading the defense and making decisions in a very difficult offensive system.

His passing has improved. The handle has not improved, I dont even know where thats coming from. Its still very bad. His midrange volume went up, efficiency went down (about 40% on the season, which isn't good). His rebounding is still in the 9-10% range, same as it was his 1st 2 seasons. His effect on team rebounding was actually worse this season, as he was in the -2.5% his 1st 2 seasons and just finished at -3.5% this year. Contested rebounds still well below average for a forward, even a pure small forward. His finishing has definitely improved though. Reading the defense.. eh, sure. But that's more because he started so low. He had a solid run for a while, but got back into the same habits as before to end the season.

Franz OTOH has an average to above average skillset almost across the board. Despite his poor perimeter shooting this year compared to last year, he had only a 10 pt dropoff in TS (from .580 to 570). Improved rebounding, improved assists, improved steals, improved blocks, improved TOs, improved challenge rate - which is crazy because he was already top 6 in that at the SF position.. He's much better and its not particularly close. Even if you give JK the benefit of the doubt in terms of realistic improvement, Wagner is better right now than that version of JK. Could something extremely unlikely happen where JK surpasses him? Sure.. but forecasting is about playing the odds and they are heavily in favor of Wagner

Buying JK on his potential would be a super unwise purchase. Buying on him as-is, as a guy who can make defenses pay if they try and spread out on the perimeter? That's a much better idea. And maybe the defense comes along in time, in fact I'd expect it to. Unlike the rest, there's been a gradual incline, which is usually a sign of stable progress going forward. Its just that Franz has that in a ton of categories. I dont think there's a team in the NBA, win-now or rebuilding, that takes JK over Franz. Unless they want to tank I guess, but that's a whole other thing

Also just noticed the secondary scoring thing - JK will only be a secondary scorer on a good team if the shot turns around, and I mean seriously turns around. Today's game does not allow players who are pure 2pt scorers to go off unless they are elite defenders, and thats a big ask too

[Onus]

Wagner is better than JK now. That much is clear. Just like it was clear in 2010-11 that russell westbrook was much better than steph. One year later, it was almost impossible to imagine curry ever challenging russ as steph had missed most of the season with his ankles and Russ made his 2nd all nba team, even getting some DPOY votes. These things change, especially since we'
re discussing 21 and 22 year olds. Would wagner look better than he does in Orl if he was playing off of steph and Klay spreading the floor? Sure. Would JK look better if he spent 3 years getting all the minutes he could handle (wagner has played more than 2x the minutes JK has)? Also, sure.

JK had spacing issues with the Warriors.. the Magic are a notoriously bad shooting team. If JK played extended minutes on the Magic, he'd likely be a buy-low trade target for teams w/good spacing. I dont think PT is going to do much for his development. From a development standpoint, there's a real possibility that the only realistic improvement will be sharpening up his cutting and defense. Which is fine and could be a credible starter on a winner, but would still likely put him below a jack-of-all trades like Franz. And that's even assuming Franz plateaus as well - but he's more likely to develop (or recover, whatever) because he just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting, instead of the long game development of a credible 3pter or tight handles from JK

I find it odd that you're capping JK's development at 'cutting and defense' while FW 'just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting."

JK shot 33.6, 37, and 32.1% from 3 in his first three years. FW is 35.4, 36.1, and 28.1% (and like sub 20% since All-Star). Not sure why FW would have to return to those numbers while JK has a 'long game development of a credible 3pter."

I'm not saying JK will be better than FW. I'm simply saying it's a bit early to make that call considering they're 21 and 22, respectively. While I haven't seen a ton of the magic, FW looks a lot like he did in college - a very capable starter that likely tops out as a secondary creator (or maybe tertiary?), 2nd or 3rd scoring option and a solid defender. I'm not sure where the development/growth for him was. Unless he becomes a go-to scorer (ala Lauri) or big wing creator (ala scottie barnes) I don't think he makes an all-star team. Neither of those outcomes are in the cards for Franz from what I've seen. He came into the league ready to start (on a bad team, at least) and I'm not sure what he has improved to the point where it's a standout skill. Part of that is him developing earlier, while in Michigan for 2 seasons. Part of it is that his ceiling might be naturally low due to size, quickness, athleticism being (near) impossible to improve. What's the ceiling there, is my question? It's certainly not Shawn Marion or Pippen. Is it Lauri with better defense? Is it siakam? I'm not sure I see his ceiling as being much higher than his current level of play. Even if he becomes a solid shooter, he is never going to be a no1 option and probably not even a no2 on a championship level team.

JK may never reach the level where FW is today. He started at a much lower point when he was drafted. Since then, however, he's improved dramatically in a number of areas. Most notably, his passing vision (if not always the actual passing), handle (still a WIP but dramatically better than in his rookie year), FT rate and %, rebounding (this year only) and mid range shooting. I would also say he's gotten much craftier around the basket, finishing with both hands, off the glass and through contact, not just over the defense with his athleticism. Most importantly, he's much better at reading the defense and making decisions in a very difficult offensive system.

JK is younger, has played half the minutes on a team trying to win a title, and has elite, like top 1%, athleticism. Shooting will be his key skill. If he never gets better than he is now, especially from distance and off the bounce, he'll plateau as an athletic 4 that rim runs and provides some secondary scoring options. If he develops his shot, both from distance and off the dribble, the ceiling goes up significantly. Considering he shot around 80% from the line after a terrible start to the season I have some faith he'll get there as a shooter.

Franz is already a legit #2 on the Magic. A team that actually had a better record than us this year. Franz literally could stop developing here and it would take a massive leap for JK to catch up. Franz right now is the 2nd option with legit defensive chops on a better team. This is his floor and you don't think he can get better? Franz is a 6'11'' forward, he's not small. Will he ever be a top 10 player most likely not but he might be able to be a top 20 player. Is that good enough to win a title, who knows if he joins the Magic with Wemby sure why not. I mean he led Germany to the Gold in the World Cup.

[vvoland]

I find it odd that you're capping JK's development at 'cutting and defense' while FW 'just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting."

JK shot 33.6, 37, and 32.1% from 3 in his first three years. FW is 35.4, 36.1, and 28.1% (and like sub 20% since All-Star). Not sure why FW would have to return to those numbers while JK has a 'long game development of a credible 3pter."

Do you think they take the same shots? Franz actually has people contest his 3s

JK may never reach the level where FW is today. He started at a much lower point when he was drafted. Since then, however, he's improved dramatically in a number of areas. Most notably, his passing vision (if not always the actual passing), handle (still a WIP but dramatically better than in his rookie year), FT rate and %, rebounding (this year only) and mid range shooting. I would also say he's gotten much craftier around the basket, finishing with both hands, off the glass and through contact, not just over the defense with his athleticism. Most importantly, he's much better at reading the defense and making decisions in a very difficult offensive system.

His passing has improved. The handle has not improved, I dont even know where thats coming from. Its still very bad. His midrange volume went up, efficiency went down (about 40% on the season, which isn't good). His rebounding is still in the 9-10% range, same as it was his 1st 2 seasons. His effect on team rebounding was actually worse this season, as he was in the -2.5% his 1st 2 seasons and just finished at -3.5% this year. Contested rebounds still well below average for a forward, even a pure small forward. His finishing has definitely improved though. Reading the defense.. eh, sure. But that's more because he started so low. He had a solid run for a while, but got back into the same habits as before to end the season.

Franz OTOH has an average to above average skillset almost across the board. Despite his poor perimeter shooting this year compared to last year, he had only a 10 pt dropoff in TS (from .580 to 570). Improved rebounding, improved assists, improved steals, improved blocks, improved TOs, improved challenge rate - which is crazy because he was already top 6 in that at the SF position.. He's much better and its not particularly close. Even if you give JK the benefit of the doubt in terms of realistic improvement, Wagner is better right now than that version of JK. Could something extremely unlikely happen where JK surpasses him? Sure.. but forecasting is about playing the odds and they are heavily in favor of Wagner

Buying JK on his potential would be a super unwise purchase. Buying on him as-is, as a guy who can make defenses pay if they try and spread out on the perimeter? That's a much better idea. And maybe the defense comes along in time, in fact I'd expect it to. Unlike the rest, there's been a gradual incline, which is usually a sign of stable progress going forward. Its just that Franz has that in a ton of categories. I dont think there's a team in the NBA, win-now or rebuilding, that takes JK over Franz. Unless they want to tank I guess, but that's a whole other thing

Also just noticed the secondary scoring thing - JK will only be a secondary scorer on a good team if the shot turns around, and I mean seriously turns around. Today's game does not allow players who are pure 2pt scorers to go off unless they are elite defenders, and thats a big ask too

Are you sure about the bolded part? I havent' seen many people run out to contest Franz this season so I check the numbers on nba.com. I may be reading them wrong but I believe Franz has a higher % of his 3's with the nearest defender being 4-6 ft or 6+ ft away. Franz is 10.% and 18%, respectively. JK is 5% and 13%.

From what I've seen, the handle is much less of a disaster than it used to be. As is his decision making in terms of what to do with the dribble. He's also had to do a lot more with the handle this season than in prior years - namely, creating his own shot.

Secondary, or even primary, scorers that aren't 3pt shooters are not that rare. There's Sabonis, A.D., Paolo, and Sengun as forwards. There's DJM, Franz, RJ, Siakam, Scottie at the guard/forward spots. Some are defensive monsters. Other anything but. Some pass well, some not so much. I'm sure there are a ton of players I missed. It doesn't look as cut/dry as you make it seem.

[vvoland]

JK had spacing issues with the Warriors.. the Magic are a notoriously bad shooting team. If JK played extended minutes on the Magic, he'd likely be a buy-low trade target for teams w/good spacing. I dont think PT is going to do much for his development. From a development standpoint, there's a real possibility that the only realistic improvement will be sharpening up his cutting and defense. Which is fine and could be a credible starter on a winner, but would still likely put him below a jack-of-all trades like Franz. And that's even assuming Franz plateaus as well - but he's more likely to develop (or recover, whatever) because he just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting, instead of the long game development of a credible 3pter or tight handles from JK

I find it odd that you're capping JK's development at 'cutting and defense' while FW 'just has to return to 35-36% 3pt shooting."

JK shot 33.6, 37, and 32.1% from 3 in his first three years. FW is 35.4, 36.1, and 28.1% (and like sub 20% since All-Star). Not sure why FW would have to return to those numbers while JK has a 'long game development of a credible 3pter."

I'm not saying JK will be better than FW. I'm simply saying it's a bit early to make that call considering they're 21 and 22, respectively. While I haven't seen a ton of the magic, FW looks a lot like he did in college - a very capable starter that likely tops out as a secondary creator (or maybe tertiary?), 2nd or 3rd scoring option and a solid defender. I'm not sure where the development/growth for him was. Unless he becomes a go-to scorer (ala Lauri) or big wing creator (ala scottie barnes) I don't think he makes an all-star team. Neither of those outcomes are in the cards for Franz from what I've seen. He came into the league ready to start (on a bad team, at least) and I'm not sure what he has improved to the point where it's a standout skill. Part of that is him developing earlier, while in Michigan for 2 seasons. Part of it is that his ceiling might be naturally low due to size, quickness, athleticism being (near) impossible to improve. What's the ceiling there, is my question? It's certainly not Shawn Marion or Pippen. Is it Lauri with better defense? Is it siakam? I'm not sure I see his ceiling as being much higher than his current level of play. Even if he becomes a solid shooter, he is never going to be a no1 option and probably not even a no2 on a championship level team.

JK may never reach the level where FW is today. He started at a much lower point when he was drafted. Since then, however, he's improved dramatically in a number of areas. Most notably, his passing vision (if not always the actual passing), handle (still a WIP but dramatically better than in his rookie year), FT rate and %, rebounding (this year only) and mid range shooting. I would also say he's gotten much craftier around the basket, finishing with both hands, off the glass and through contact, not just over the defense with his athleticism. Most importantly, he's much better at reading the defense and making decisions in a very difficult offensive system.

JK is younger, has played half the minutes on a team trying to win a title, and has elite, like top 1%, athleticism. Shooting will be his key skill. If he never gets better than he is now, especially from distance and off the bounce, he'll plateau as an athletic 4 that rim runs and provides some secondary scoring options. If he develops his shot, both from distance and off the dribble, the ceiling goes up significantly. Considering he shot around 80% from the line after a terrible start to the season I have some faith he'll get there as a shooter.

Franz is already a legit #2 on the Magic. A team that actually had a better record than us this year. Franz literally could stop developing here and it would take a massive leap for JK to catch up. Franz right now is the 2nd option with legit defensive chops on a better team. This is his floor and you don't think he can get better? Franz is a 6'11'' forward, he's not small. Will he ever be a top 10 player most likely not but he might be able to be a top 20 player. Is that good enough to win a title, who knows if he joins the Magic with Wemby sure why not. I mean he led Germany to the Gold in the World Cup.

He's a legit #2 on what might be the worst offense in the league. If we were in the east, I'm pretty sure we pick up a few more wins. I don't think this HAS TO BE his floor. If his shot does not come back, he may get relegated in the pecking order and we'll see how he reacts to having to fight for minutes. Confidence is slippery, we'll see if his is ever shaken (not that I'm rooting for it, just not guaranteed).

I think he was the 2nd option for the germany national team behind schroeder (who's a monster in fiba, for some reason). I could be wrong but, even then, not sure if international play is indicative of an NBA ceiling or performance. Mo Wagner was also a monster when playing for Germany but not sure I'd sign up to start him. Going by fiba, schroeder is like the best guard in the world.

[CDM_Stats]

Are you sure about the bolded part? I havent' seen many people run out to contest Franz this season so I check the numbers on nba.com. I may be reading them wrong but I believe Franz has a higher % of his 3's with the nearest defender being 4-6 ft or 6+ ft away. Franz is 10.% and 18%, respectively. JK is 5% and 13%.

I dont use NBA.com (contest rate is better) but it is a lot closer than I thought. It still has Franz at a higher contest rate, but I was thinking 3x or 4x at least. It was only 2x (2.1 really). But that's still a significant enough amount. For reference, the difference between NBA.com's numbers and SS is always stark because SS sees people running out at shooters, even far away, as a contest, while NBA.com uses the idea of where the closest defender was when the shot starts (not released)

From what I've seen, the handle is much less of a disaster than it used to be. As is his decision making in terms of what to do with the dribble. He's also had to do a lot more with the handle this season than in prior years - namely, creating his own shot.

If he's not going straight downhill, its been pretty bad. He decides when to go downhill a lot more judiciously, and thats great, but not the same thing. The handle is still really poor no matter how its sliced. Went from 54 unforced handling TOs in 22-23 (1394 minutes, 1 every 25.8) to 67 in 23-24 (1949 min, 1 every 29)

Secondary, or even primary, scorers that aren't 3pt shooters are not that rare. There's Sabonis, A.D., Paolo, and Sengun as forwards. There's DJM, Franz, RJ, Siakam, Scottie at the guard/forward spots. Some are defensive monsters. Other anything but. Some pass well, some not so much. I'm sure there are a ton of players I missed. It doesn't look as cut/dry as you make it seem.

lol thats a bad list man. AD, DJM, Siakam, RJ and Barnes can be scratched off immediately as they are either elite defenders (all but DJM/RJ) or quality 3pt shooters (DJM/RJ). The rest are bigs, and none are on teams that are any sort of threat. Because having a top 2 scorer that cant hit from 3 means you are bleeding efficiency

It really is cut and dry. Just like if you want a non-defender at C, you have to bend over backwards to accommodate that player and build a system around that limitation. Which is why investing in a player like that is a very bad idea. Unless the investment is a minimal one.. if JK was looking at a MLE+ kind of extension, no worries there. If he's looking at starter money, its a bad idea

[vvoland]

Are you sure about the bolded part? I havent' seen many people run out to contest Franz this season so I check the numbers on nba.com. I may be reading them wrong but I believe Franz has a higher % of his 3's with the nearest defender being 4-6 ft or 6+ ft away. Franz is 10.% and 18%, respectively. JK is 5% and 13%.

I dont use NBA.com (contest rate is better) but it is a lot closer than I thought. It still has Franz at a higher contest rate, but I was thinking 3x or 4x at least. It was only 2x (2.1 really). But that's still a significant enough amount. For reference, the difference between NBA.com's numbers and SS is always stark because SS sees people running out at shooters, even far away, as a contest, while NBA.com uses the idea of where the closest defender was when the shot starts (not released)

From what I've seen, the handle is much less of a disaster than it used to be. As is his decision making in terms of what to do with the dribble. He's also had to do a lot more with the handle this season than in prior years - namely, creating his own shot.

If he's not going straight downhill, its been pretty bad. He decides when to go downhill a lot more judiciously, and thats great, but not the same thing. The handle is still really poor no matter how its sliced. Went from 54 unforced handling TOs in 22-23 (1394 minutes, 1 every 25.8) to 67 in 23-24 (1949 min, 1 every 29)

Secondary, or even primary, scorers that aren't 3pt shooters are not that rare. There's Sabonis, A.D., Paolo, and Sengun as forwards. There's DJM, Franz, RJ, Siakam, Scottie at the guard/forward spots. Some are defensive monsters. Other anything but. Some pass well, some not so much. I'm sure there are a ton of players I missed. It doesn't look as cut/dry as you make it seem.

lol thats a bad list man. AD, DJM, Siakam, RJ and Barnes can be scratched off immediately as they are either elite defenders (all but DJM/RJ) or quality 3pt shooters (DJM/RJ). The rest are bigs, and none are on teams that are any sort of threat. Because having a top 2 scorer that cant hit from 3 means you are bleeding efficiency

It really is cut and dry. Just like if you want a non-defender at C, you have to bend over backwards to accommodate that player and build a system around that limitation. Which is why investing in a player like that is a very bad idea. Unless the investment is a minimal one.. if JK was looking at a MLE+ kind of extension, no worries there. If he's looking at starter money, its a bad idea

Not sure I agree. RJ and DJM are "quality 3pt shooters"? Just for reference, their 3pt % starting in their rookie year:
DJM: 39 - 27 - 37 - 32 - 34 - 36
RJ: 32 - 40 - 34 - 31 - 36 - 33 - 39

I think the most accurate description would be "up and down" 3pt shooters that had one of their best seasons this year. Certainly not out of the question that JK hits those numbers considering he's never shot below 32% over a full season and both DJM and RJ have.

You also forgot about Sabonis. He and Fox drove the league's best offense last year despite neither being a threat from 3 (fox is improving but just became dangerous from there this season).

While A.D. is an elite defender, I would put Siakam in a similar category as DJM. But that wasn't the discussion, right? It was whether or not you can be a 2nd option without having range out to 3. I say, you can, though it would clearly be better if you can shoot from deep. It's less about whether the team is a threat than it is about how well the offense functions with a 'non-shooter' as a 1 or 2 option. I think shooting is incredibly important but for a no1 or no 2 option, it's not as important as creating a shot for yourself AND others. That's probably where JK falls short, we'll see if he can grow into it.

Curious if you can dig a bit deeper on the FW vs JK 3pt attempts. The fact that NBA.com has JK shooting 18% of his 3's when a defender is at least 4 ft away vs FW's 28% seems off but so does the 2x contest rate. Is there a "good contest" vs "bad contest" rate for SS? I'm genuinely curious because as a dubs fan I saw a lot of 'contests' from players like cp3, curry, and podz that don't do anything to the shooter other than categorize the shot as 'contested.' I think, in their case, it may have been better to leave the shooter wide open and make him think twice about shooting or feel disrespected or whatever.

[CDM_Stats]

Not sure I agree. RJ and DJM are "quality 3pt shooters"? Just for reference, their 3pt % starting in their rookie year:
DJM: 39 - 27 - 37 - 32 - 34 - 36
RJ: 32 - 40 - 34 - 31 - 36 - 33 - 39

Well first, you quoted 2 halves of RJ's full year. He's 36% this year. And %s without volume doesnt bare much weight. They are both quality 3pt shooters because they provide an actual option. Is Draymond a quality 3pt shooter, or did he shoot 40% on low volume? If you watch JK, DJM, RJ, and Draymond all play, its evident who's viewed as credible and who isnt

You also forgot about Sabonis. He and Fox drove the league's best offense last year despite neither being a threat from 3 (fox is improving but just became dangerous from there this season).

Did you miss the last paragraph? Non playoff team.. because most Cs are only 2pt scorers, but there are very few who can score well enough to be a top 2 option *AND* do whats necessary to win on defense. There's a reason why the archetype is dying, and eventually the Kings and Rockets will figure out what the rest of the league already knows - you aren't winning that way. Unless you have a Jokic, but good luck with that route

While A.D. is an elite defender, I would put Siakam in a similar category as DJM. But that wasn't the discussion, right? It was whether or not you can be a 2nd option without having range out to 3.

I'm not saying this with any ill intent, but take it as you will:

JK will only be a secondary scorer on a good team if the shot turns around, and I mean seriously turns around. Today's game does not allow players who are pure 2pt scorers to go off unless they are elite defenders, and thats a big ask too

Anyways to answer it - Siakam profiles as a borderline elite defender, mainly because of his versatility and switchability. Doesnt help much when you're on the Pacers and have Myles Turner as the anchor, but thats not really on him. If we're sticking to JK, we can talk about how the people you listed are excellent creators (not passers, creators) and arent dependent on others to get their looks

As for contest stuff.. dont honestly know. I'm sure there are patterns based on wingspan or height or whatever, but that would start getting subjective and the idea behind the metric part is that the data must be objective. The analysis - analytics - must be subjective. And I think you're asking for a subjective metric if you're qualifying good vs bad closeouts, which is better left to the individual than decided for them. At least thats how I rationalize it, one size doesnt fit all with analysis

[RUN-TJM]

Are you sure about the bolded part? I havent' seen many people run out to contest Franz this season so I check the numbers on nba.com. I may be reading them wrong but I believe Franz has a higher % of his 3's with the nearest defender being 4-6 ft or 6+ ft away. Franz is 10.% and 18%, respectively. JK is 5% and 13%.

I dont use NBA.com (contest rate is better) but it is a lot closer than I thought. It still has Franz at a higher contest rate, but I was thinking 3x or 4x at least. It was only 2x (2.1 really). But that's still a significant enough amount. For reference, the difference between NBA.com's numbers and SS is always stark because SS sees people running out at shooters, even far away, as a contest, while NBA.com uses the idea of where the closest defender was when the shot starts (not released)

From what I've seen, the handle is much less of a disaster than it used to be. As is his decision making in terms of what to do with the dribble. He's also had to do a lot more with the handle this season than in prior years - namely, creating his own shot.

If he's not going straight downhill, its been pretty bad. He decides when to go downhill a lot more judiciously, and thats great, but not the same thing. The handle is still really poor no matter how its sliced. Went from 54 unforced handling TOs in 22-23 (1394 minutes, 1 every 25.8) to 67 in 23-24 (1949 min, 1 every 29)

Secondary, or even primary, scorers that aren't 3pt shooters are not that rare. There's Sabonis, A.D., Paolo, and Sengun as forwards. There's DJM, Franz, RJ, Siakam, Scottie at the guard/forward spots. Some are defensive monsters. Other anything but. Some pass well, some not so much. I'm sure there are a ton of players I missed. It doesn't look as cut/dry as you make it seem.

lol thats a bad list man. AD, DJM, Siakam, RJ and Barnes can be scratched off immediately as they are either elite defenders (all but DJM/RJ) or quality 3pt shooters (DJM/RJ). The rest are bigs, and none are on teams that are any sort of threat. Because having a top 2 scorer that cant hit from 3 means you are bleeding efficiency

It really is cut and dry. Just like if you want a non-defender at C, you have to bend over backwards to accommodate that player and build a system around that limitation. Which is why investing in a player like that is a very bad idea. Unless the investment is a minimal one.. if JK was looking at a MLE+ kind of extension, no worries there. If he's looking at starter money, its a bad idea

I watched the Magic a lot this season as Jingles is a personal favourite of mine.

At the start of the season teams were closing out on Wagner pretty hard still due to his historical numbers. As the season progressed and teams realised that his numbers were no longer a temporary dip they preferred him to shoot over the drive. It was very obvious. Even one of their hometown commentators mentioned how much space he has when shooting 3’s and the impact on the overall offence of the Magic.

That’s not to say his shot is broken. I think it was mental with him. (Not sure what is worse in a player) I do expect it will bounce back to mid 30’s.

The same also applies to Kuminga. He now can shoot FT’s and mid range pull ups at an effective rate. He does display a slightly awkward looking shot but shooting coaches place a lot of emphasis on hand position on the ball and follow through. He’s actually very good at both. It tells me that with his current form, he needs reps!!!!! Lots of reps. He certainly doesn’t lack the confidence to become a good shooter.

I know we compare these two players due to draft positioning but I think we should be looking at other comparisons for JK. I wanted us to draft 1 of Wagner, Barnes, Giddey or JK all for different reasons. I also wanted Johnson at 14 but I don’t compare Moody with him. I look at other wings of a similar vintage.

[vvoland]

Not sure I agree. RJ and DJM are "quality 3pt shooters"? Just for reference, their 3pt % starting in their rookie year:
DJM: 39 - 27 - 37 - 32 - 34 - 36
RJ: 32 - 40 - 34 - 31 - 36 - 33 - 39

Well first, you quoted 2 halves of RJ's full year. He's 36% this year. And %s without volume doesnt bare much weight. They are both quality 3pt shooters because they provide an actual option. Is Draymond a quality 3pt shooter, or did he shoot 40% on low volume? If you watch JK, DJM, RJ, and Draymond all play, its evident who's viewed as credible and who isnt

You also forgot about Sabonis. He and Fox drove the league's best offense last year despite neither being a threat from 3 (fox is improving but just became dangerous from there this season).

Did you miss the last paragraph? Non playoff team.. because most Cs are only 2pt scorers, but there are very few who can score well enough to be a top 2 option *AND* do whats necessary to win on defense. There's a reason why the archetype is dying, and eventually the Kings and Rockets will figure out what the rest of the league already knows - you aren't winning that way. Unless you have a Jokic, but good luck with that route

While A.D. is an elite defender, I would put Siakam in a similar category as DJM. But that wasn't the discussion, right? It was whether or not you can be a 2nd option without having range out to 3.

I'm not saying this with any ill intent, but take it as you will:

JK will only be a secondary scorer on a good team if the shot turns around, and I mean seriously turns around. Today's game does not allow players who are pure 2pt scorers to go off unless they are elite defenders, and thats a big ask too

Anyways to answer it - Siakam profiles as a borderline elite defender, mainly because of his versatility and switchability. Doesnt help much when you're on the Pacers and have Myles Turner as the anchor, but thats not really on him. If we're sticking to JK, we can talk about how the people you listed are excellent creators (not passers, creators) and arent dependent on others to get their looks

As for contest stuff.. dont honestly know. I'm sure there are patterns based on wingspan or height or whatever, but that would start getting subjective and the idea behind the metric part is that the data must be objective. The analysis - analytics - must be subjective. And I think you're asking for a subjective metric if you're qualifying good vs bad closeouts, which is better left to the individual than decided for them. At least thats how I rationalize it, one size doesnt fit all with analysis

Credible and "quality 3pt shooters" mean different things to me. I don't think DJM or RJ are quality. Better than JK and Dray, sure. Not a high bar, though. If that's the bar, yeah, I think JK can get there. He's never shot it as poorly as DJM and RJ have so I'll bet on that improving vs stagnating.

I guess I misunderstood this part and not sure I understand it even now. Are you saying if you're a 2pt scorer, you can only 'go off' if you're also a good defender?:

"Today's game does not allow players who are pure 2pt scorers to go off unless they are elite defenders, and thats a big ask too"

Not sure what you mean by 'good team" but last year's kings squad probably qualifies. As does this year's Orl. Neither have a 3pt shooter as a 1st or 2nd option. One was a historically great offense, one was pretty atrocious. Still, good teams where the offense was led by a player that doesn't/can't shoot 3s.

Can JK help drive an above average NBA offense as the no 2 option? I would say he did that for large stretches of this season. Did he do so on a 'good team?' Considering we were 10th in the conference, probably not.

If SS doesn't make a distinction between a contest that is many feet away and one that is right in the face of the shooter, isn't the nba.com data more accurate? If a contest from 8 ft away and one from 1 ft is the same on SS, it makes that specific metric somewhat useless.

[whatisacenter]

Franzphiles are funny, if JK put up numbers like Franz did yesterday you all would be ripping him. 5-17 FG's with 6 turnovers.

Franz is a nice player but he is already at his ceiling. JK will catch and pass him next season.

[DonaldSanders]

The same also applies to Kuminga. He now can shoot FT’s and mid range pull ups at an effective rate. He does display a slightly awkward looking shot but shooting coaches place a lot of emphasis on hand position on the ball and follow through. He’s actually very good at both. It tells me that with his current form, he needs reps!!!!! Lots of reps. He certainly doesn’t lack the confidence to become a good shooter.

I'd love to see JK start hunting more of the close-mid range jumper stuff (foulline and closer) especially to start the game. I think he can hit these at a high % with practice, establish that first so teams have to play him for that, giving him some of an antidote vs. these huge C's like Davis or Zubac. Maybe he won't be as high % as say Derozan at 3-10ft, but I think he can be enough of a threat there that it changes the way he is defended. He needs a pet move or two for a close jumper that he hunts.

In a lot of games he starts looking for the drive, but that's what teams play him for. If he starts with the close-mid jumper stuff and has at least one reliable move, then things open up a bit.

[vvoland]

Franzphiles are funny, if JK put up numbers like Franz did yesterday you all would be ripping him. 5-17 FG's with 6 turnovers.

Franz is a nice player but he is already at his ceiling. JK will catch and pass him next season.

Much like my response to CDM and Onus, both of whom are pretty confident we've seen the best of JK (or close to it), I would tell you it's a bit early to say a 22 year old has peaked. Franz is dying to play in a well spaced offense and if Orl was on the fence about trying to sign Klay, I would imagine they're well off the fence now. Wouldn't surprise me to see them go after both, Klay and Monk.

[vvoland]

The same also applies to Kuminga. He now can shoot FT’s and mid range pull ups at an effective rate. He does display a slightly awkward looking shot but shooting coaches place a lot of emphasis on hand position on the ball and follow through. He’s actually very good at both. It tells me that with his current form, he needs reps!!!!! Lots of reps. He certainly doesn’t lack the confidence to become a good shooter.

I'd love to see JK start hunting more of the close-mid range jumper stuff (foulline and closer) especially to start the game. I think he can hit these at a high % with practice, establish that first so teams have to play him for that, giving him some of an antidote vs. these huge C's like Davis or Zubac. Maybe he won't be as high % as say Derozan at 3-10ft, but I think he can be enough of a threat there that it changes the way he is defended. He needs a pet move or two for a close jumper that he hunts.

In a lot of games he starts looking for the drive, but that's what teams play him for. If he starts with the close-mid jumper stuff and has at least one reliable move, then things open up a bit.

I like that he has the mid-range as a weapon but I'd rather see him continue to improve the 3pt shot and the around the rim stuff. He's already elite in the restricted area (73% this season) but he's only at 45% in the non-RA paint. I think that's where he needs to take a jump, no pun intended. He's a bit predictable in that he wants to get all the way to the rim and when he's sealed off, he can struggle.

Anyone remember the shot that Zion got hurt on in the play-in game? Driving at AD, he takes off early, well before the RA so that AD can't time the release. As a result, the high point of the layup is too far for AD to challenge since the takeoff was vs no contact and zion was free to elevate. If he tried that closer to the rim, AD gets into Zion's body, it's not a clean jump, and it's stuffed. That's where JK can add variety. He's such an explosive leaper that I am confused as to why he gets so close to the rim before exploding upwards.

[whatisacenter]

Franzphiles are funny, if JK put up numbers like Franz did yesterday you all would be ripping him. 5-17 FG's with 6 turnovers.

Franz is a nice player but he is already at his ceiling. JK will catch and pass him next season.

Much like my response to CDM and Onus, both of whom are pretty confident we've seen the best of JK (or close to it), I would tell you it's a bit early to say a 22 year old has peaked. Franz is dying to play in a well spaced offense and if Orl was on the fence about trying to sign Klay, I would imagine they're well off the fence now. Wouldn't surprise me to see them go after both, Klay and Monk.

valid. I just didn't see any jump from Franz this season and his 3pt% cratered.