Post#56 » by EvanZ » Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:14 pm
Onus wrote:TB wrote:EvanZ wrote:The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.
This was Kyle's reasoning for taking the ball. He wanted to get the third possession.
I disagree with that assessment and think you obviously defer so that the Chiefs have to play 3 down football while niners potentially get 4 down football. That advantage outweighs getting the advantage if it goes 3rd possession. I have no stats for this, just my opinion lol
Kyle's reasoning is absolutely ridiculous. Because the Chiefs were planning for going for 2 to win the game if they had to so that 3rd possession is pointless.
You realize that you can't know what the Chiefs are going to do on the second possession before you even receive the ball on the first possession right?
I mean you do realize Shanahan had to decide this before they actually played? Right???
All you have to realize is that there are some outcomes where the two teams are tied after the first two possessions. Then the receiving team has the advantage on the third possession. Clearly that will happen at some point. If you are ignoring those odds, then. you are doing the calculation incorrectly 100% of the time.
I was right about 3 point shooting. I expect to be right about Tacko Fall. Some coach will figure out how to use Tacko Fall. This movement towards undersized centers will sweep ng back. Back to the basket scorers will return to the NBA.