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Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning

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jozef
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Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#1 » by jozef » Sun Mar 10, 2024 5:14 pm

I start with a sample of my pre-game choice for rotation vs Spurs:
jozef wrote:PG Podziemski 28, Paul 20
SG Thompson 28, Moody 20
SF Wiggins 28, Payton 20
PF Green 16, Kuminga 32
C Jackson-Davis 32, Green 16

Cause GP2 was out, I would change it to:
PG Podziemski 28, Paul 20
SG Thompson 32, Quinones 16
SF Wiggins 32, Moody 16
PF Green 16, Kuminga 32
C Jackson-Davis 32, Green 16

In the NBA competition there needs to be a balance for outside and inside scoring based on skills, size and athleticism. It does take one guy to throw the execution out of the window.
Look at Warriors roster ranking at fitting into positions:
PG - 1 CURRY, 2 PODZIEMSKI, 3 PAUL
SG - 1 THOMPSON, 2 MOODY, 3 QUINONES; Podz releasing point on jumpshot is low and his leap at drives is at bottom of scale (that's why I like DiVincenzo more), playing with Steph makes it less visible but still it is a bug in execution
SF - 1 WIGGINS, 2 PAYTON, 3 MOODY; Moody is at the bottom end of the scale, Kuminga miss essesntial skills of shooting treys on the move, he is at least one offseason away from fitting into perimeter position
PF - 1 GREEN, 2 KUMINGA; Saric is too slow to have positive impact, Wiggins miss bruising quality to be impact inside player
C - 1 JACKSON-DAVIS, 2 GREEN, 3 LOONEY; Looney is too slow to contribute more than just few minutes versus backup centers

Look at last game vs Spurs. There were 24! changes of lineups. For most of the game there was significant lack of fitting into positions preventing the team from finding any flow.
How did my fitting lineups in this game?
In the start of 2nd Q they played for 4 minutes (but in 4 different lineups and 3 of them with Quinones at SG) and lost 5-12.
In the late of 3rd Q and in 4th Q they played for 9 minutes (4 different lineups with Thompson or Moody at SG) and won 34-25.
Team plus/minus depending on position:
Kuminga at SF -8, at PF +4
Wiggins at SF +1, at PF -5
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#2 » by jozef » Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:20 pm

There is simply an athletic level when 6-7 JK and Dray are not enough. That's why TJD was +20 cause he can match up. And that's why Klay was -7 cause he did not play enough with TJD.
Overall Warriors played solid size at PF and C with an exception of GP2 at PF. No JK at SF. No Wigs at PF. This improvement was enough to win second game vs Spurs.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#3 » by jozef » Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:19 am

jozef wrote:Look at Warriors roster ranking at fitting into positions:
PG - 1 CURRY, 2 PODZIEMSKI, 3 PAUL
SG - 1 THOMPSON, 2 MOODY, 3 QUINONES; Podz releasing point on jumpshot is low and his leap at drives is at bottom of scale (that's why I like DiVincenzo more), playing with Steph makes it less visible but still it is a bug in execution
SF - 1 WIGGINS, 2 PAYTON, 3 MOODY; Moody is at the bottom end of the scale, Kuminga miss essesntial skills of shooting treys on the move, he is at least one offseason away from fitting into perimeter position
PF - 1 GREEN, 2 KUMINGA; Saric is too slow to have positive impact, Wiggins miss bruising quality to be impact inside player
C - 1 JACKSON-DAVIS, 2 GREEN, 3 LOONEY; Looney is too slow to contribute more than just few minutes versus backup centers

So look at lineups in Mavs game. Of course it is not so black-and-white math but still it does reveal how important and inevitable it is versus good team at full strength.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#4 » by TB » Thu Mar 14, 2024 5:51 pm

It's pretty crazy to me that the 4 man unit of Steph, Wiggins, Dray, Trayce have only played 3 minutes together. Especially considering the struggles of Loon and Klay throughout the season.

To me our best all purpose lineup is probably those 4 with Moody or Podz added as the 5th. Use those two a lot, use the current starting lineup that has been crushing it (steph/podz/wiggins/kuminga/dray) a lot as our small death lineup, and use a bench unit that surrounds CP3/Klay/Saric with defenders like GP2/Loon (NOT JK at the 4 or Steph/Podz alongside CP3/Klay) to play traditional pick n pop against other bench units.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#5 » by SpreeS » Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:02 am

Klay has officially the worst nrtg from all GSW rotation players -2.4nrtg and team plays the best basketball w/o him from all rotation players +7.5nrtg

on

Klay -2.4nrtg
Wiggs -2.3nrtg
Saric -1.1nrtg

off

Klay +7.5nrtg
Wiggs +5.3nrtg
Saric/Looney +3.1nrtg

and Klay played more min than everyone on the team except Curry. Looking at these numbers we would be around 5/6th in the west w/o Klay. He and Kerr sabotage our team whole season (and second season in a row).

Wiggs w/o Klay +5.5nrtg w -9.2nrtg
Looney w/o Klay +8.06nrtg w -4.6nrtg
Kuminga w/o Klay +5.7nrtg w +2.1nrtg
Curry w/o Klay +10.0nrtg w -4.6nrtg
Green w/o Klay +11.3nrtg w -1.0nrtg
Podziemski w/o Klay +14.8nrtg w -1.5nrtg
Paul w/o Klay +3.4nrtg w +1.1nrtg
Saric w/o Klay +1.9nrtg w -4.5nrtg
Moody w/o Klay +4.9nrtg w -6.2nrtg
Davis w/o Klay +12.4nrtg w -8.1nrtg
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#6 » by superunknown » Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:57 am

SpreeS wrote:Klay has officially the worst nrtg from all GSW rotation players -2.4nrtg and team plays the best basketball w/o him from all rotation players +7.5nrtg

on

Klay -2.4nrtg
Wiggs -2.3nrtg
Saric -1.1nrtg

off

Klay +7.5nrtg
Wiggs +5.3nrtg
Saric/Looney +3.1nrtg

and Klay played more min than everyone on the team except Curry. Looking at these numbers we would be around 5/6th in the west w/o Klay. He and Kerr sabotage our team whole season (and second season in a row).


this is just ridiculous.
and the organization rewarded this shite with a 2 years extension.
the organization is light years behind at this point.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#7 » by jozef » Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:54 am

TB wrote:It's pretty crazy to me that the 4 man unit of Steph, Wiggins, Dray, Trayce have only played 3 minutes together. Especially considering the struggles of Loon and Klay throughout the season.
To me our best all purpose lineup is probably those 4 with Moody or Podz added as the 5th. Use those two a lot, use the current starting lineup that has been crushing it (steph/podz/wiggins/kuminga/dray) a lot as our small death lineup, and use a bench unit that surrounds CP3/Klay/Saric with defenders like GP2/Loon (NOT JK at the 4 or Steph/Podz alongside CP3/Klay) to play traditional pick n pop against other bench units.

Really? I thought my dream lineup of Steph, Klay, Wigs, Dray and TJD played few minutes.
I do not want to see much of Loon and Saric on the floor, and not at all together.

Andrew Wiggins has nrtg -3.1...
As far as Net Rating, it is not much of truth telling. Say in Spurs Tre Jones leads the team at -1.8, Wemby is at -4.2. Exum at 9.0 and Doncic and Kyrie at 4.0. Jaylen Brown is #9 on Celtics team. Steph is #7 on Warriors...

With Klay there were a lot of bad judgement of making him PF defender in small lineups and his game as a jumpshooter suffered from athletic decline at center position. Steph does great job dribbling through or making shot of his own but Klay needs an inside presence around him and only TJD provides any real help there. Dray is a driver of fake handoffs and JK is iso driver.
So it does take careful picking right pieces around Klay to get advantage of his jumpshot. Look at 7 treys on Utah, buzzer beaters vs Sacramento and Detroit. Just year ago he scored 54 in double OT in Atlanta. He is not in his prime anymore but he is not washed up either.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#8 » by TB » Fri Mar 15, 2024 4:37 pm

Klay is still a very useful player if used right. He's played 9 games as a reserve; and in those games he plays 4 minutes less per game, scores more at a much higher TS%, and is a net positive in +/-.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#9 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Fri Mar 15, 2024 6:52 pm

Best group of 8 with Curry
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Best group of 8 without Curry
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cdubbz wrote:Donte DiVincenzo will outplay Poole this season.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#10 » by SinceGatlingWasARookie » Sat Mar 16, 2024 2:12 am

Forget about early season bad Wiggs. Good Wiggs is mostly back.

Too bad that Klay can no longer defend. You still must defend Klay. Klay ma be 3rd option after Kuminga now but Klay still is a guy you can go to when your team offense is struggling.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#11 » by jozef » Tue Mar 19, 2024 10:38 am

...
Knicks game according to my "Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning"

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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#12 » by jozef » Tue Mar 19, 2024 11:26 am

Here is a sample of correct halftime rotation:
Fits to positions
Steph + Dray chemistry
Klay + TJD chemistry
JK as off the bench weapon
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#13 » by jozef » Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:44 am

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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#14 » by WarriorGM » Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:28 am

From NBA Lineups Advanced data here are some of the net ratings of the lineups you favor:

Steph, Klay, GP, JK, Dray +43.4 in 16 minutes over 8 games.
Steph, Klay, GP, JK, TJD -30.6 in 25 minutes over 5 games.
CP, Klay, GP, Dray, TJD +20.3 in 7 minutes over 1 game.

Looking at the NBA page I get the impression that the construction of the secondary/bench lineup will need particular attention to nuance. CP and Klay because of their veteran status demand minutes so are almost automatic inclusions for the secondary lineup. But they are both guards. Draymond is the natural guy to play with them but you don't want Draymond tiring out and he is more valuable on the starting lineup.

TJD might then look like the obvious guy to add for more size. The problem with that is TJD is not a playmaker. That's when you start noticing the problematic issue with having CP, Klay, and TJD together: adding another playmaker. Podz is another guard so adding him kind of negates the advantage one wants to get going with TJD. Steph is a guard too and like Draymond is a primary lineup guy. Saric makes some sense here but the actual results have been pretty mediocre. In short TJD is actually tricky to slot in. The player with the best net rating with TJD is Draymond unless you figure Jerome Robinson is viable.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#15 » by jozef » Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:43 pm

I do not think about playmaker. Just a need for size and skills and athleticism for every position. The plays will settle in. But if we miss something somewhere then a trouble comes soon.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#16 » by jozef » Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:32 am

Another evidence:
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#17 » by jozef » Tue Apr 2, 2024 10:06 pm

San Antonio March 31st

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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#18 » by jozef » Fri Apr 5, 2024 7:22 am

Dallas game would disprove my proposition but with absence of Lively the story of the game was that Luka AND Kyrie were +19 and ONLY Luka or ONLY Kyrie were -23.
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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#19 » by jozef » Fri Apr 5, 2024 7:23 am

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Re: Warriors 101: Guide to a Rotation and Positioning 

Post#20 » by jozef » Fri Apr 5, 2024 7:43 am

So I end my tenure with cumulative stats in these games:
FITTING LINEUPS: 280-213 = PLUS 67
SLIGHT OFFSET: 316-339 = MINUS 23
BIG MISTAKE: 162-184 = MINUS 22

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